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Musicmystery -> RE: Mosul is liberated: IS routed (7/12/2017 5:43:13 AM)
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ORIGINAL: longwayhome
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ORIGINAL: tweakabelle
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ORIGINAL: longwayhome
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ORIGINAL: Musicmystery
One look at a map will show you why we will all continue to keep Turkey as an ally.
This.
Far more important to have a democratic Turkey which respects human rights as the bulwark against Islamic extremism.
There's the rub though. Turkey's going all right wing and populist, which means worse international relations, problems with NATO, issues with internal minority rights and potential political corruption. All of which does not bode well.
That may well be the geopolitical situation, and its certainly true that Turkey is ultra paranoid about Kurdish independence. However the "facts on the ground" complicate this enormously.
The Kurds have skillfully built de facto independent mini-Kurdistans in the Kurdish regions of Iraq and Syria. The Kurds took advantage of the chaos in post-invasion Iraq to create their own self administered statelet around their capital Erbil. In Syria, Kurds have led the fight against the thugs of IS, and the lands seized from IS (at great cost in lives and treasure) set up another mini-Kurdistan. The two mini-Kurdistans are contiguous geographically. From a Kurdish perspective, the only remaining major area of Kurdistan still under non-Kurdish rule is the Kurdish region of South West Turkey, which adjoin the Kurdish regions in Syria and Iraq.
Turkey is very sensitive to any suggestion of creating a Kurdistan, a Kurdish state that would unite these three areas. They view the Kurds as terrorists, and are pretty ruthless in suppressing Turkey's Kurds. They have sent troops into Iraq to try to forestall moves there by Kurd to increase their independence from Baghdad. While the Kurds are formidable militarily, having acquired arms and experience from the fight to dislodge IS, the Turks are vastly more powerful militarily. Turkey remains implacable against any moves towards recognising Kurdish rights to self determination and nationhood.
So, the situation in the Kurdish areas of all three countries - Turkey Iraq and Syria - remains fluid, and the possibility of IS taking advantage of this, regrouping and recovering some of the territory they have lost cannot be discounted. Nor can the possibility of large scale Turkish intervention in either or both of Syria and Iraq. The trend within Turkey towards right wing jingoistic nationalism makes the possibilities either a peaceful resolution or Turkish concessions towards Kurdish independence even more remote
It is difficult to see a resolution of the Kurdish question without further bloodshed. The history of the Kurds is one of a people betrayed by the Great Powers, who have repeatedly promised the Kurds their homeland only to renege on these promises, leaving the Kurdish people vulnerable to savage and ruthless oppression from the various Govts in Turkey, Iraq and Syria. I'm afraid to say that the probablity of this history being repeated seems the most likely outcome at the moment.
All this is certainly true.
With overlapping state and national interests, a "solution" would seem optimistic - the question is whether whatever imperfect and uneasy compromise can maintain the semblance of peace. Seductive though it would be to end Kurdish grievances by creating a united Kurdistan, the destabilising effect on the other countries and the interests of other cultural minorities would not be straightforward.
Not to mention the geography.
Turkey borders the Mediterranean and Black Seas, as well is Syria, Iraq, and Iran.
(not to mention Greece, Bulgaria, Georgia, and Armenia).
Its strategic partnership as a friendly place for our ships, planes, and troops is paramount.
But it's being threatened by support for the Kurds:
WASHINGTON — A prominent Turkish newspaper has demanded the eviction of U.S. troops and warplanes from Incirlik Air Base as fallout there worsens from the Trump administration's controversial move to arm a Kurdish militia fighting the Islamic State in neighboring Syria.
In a front-page editorial published Friday, the newspaper Sozcu called for Incirlik's complete closure. It's an unlikely outcome, military officials and observers say, but a clear sign of how dramatically relations have deteriorated between the NATO allies.
http://www.militarytimes.com/articles/us-troops-turkey-incirlik-ypg-pkk-syrian-kurds
Certainly there's a strong case for an independent Kurdistan. But it's not likely to happen. Of if it does, at best it would be a tiny sliver of land, more a flash point than a solution.
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