tweakabelle
Posts: 7522
Joined: 10/16/2007 From: Sydney Australia Status: offline
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quote:
ORIGINAL: vincentML Or, maybe a total embargo should be considered. The United States is threatening to cease all commercial relationships with any country that is dealing or supporting North Korea. That’s obviously aimed at China, who has been providing materials and technical assistance to North Korea. A total embargo is without a doubt an act of war even though no American missiles have flown. Embargo! What would be the international ramifications? What would be the domestic ramifications? So here’s the dilemma: we could drop a few nuclear bombs on North Korea and wipe it out. Before impact they might be able to respond by destroying the South Korean capital and the 10 million people live in the area. On the other hand an embargo would roil the international trade community and probably send stockmarkets plummeting, maybe costing many people jobs as well. So think about it and come on up with a solution. North Korea is already subject to onerous international economic sanctions. The only likely-to-be-effective sanction left is for China to cut its oil pipleline, which would deprive NK of much needed oil to generate electricity. The Chinese have resisted this to date, as they wished to keep one card up their sleeve to maintain continued influence over Kim. This latest test might have pushed things over the brink as far as the Chinese are concerned, and they may be prepared to cut the pipeline. This would surely be effective in the long run, but it also runs the risk that a desperate NK leadership, fighting to stave off collapse of its economy and the threat that would pose to regime survival, might decide that war is a better option. Who knows how the NKs would react if their backs were really up against the wall? The only factor I can see that offers some cause for optimism is this: For over half a century, the NKs have been perfecting the arts of brinkmanship and provocation, which they use as bargaining chips in negotiations. They haven't ever taken the final step. War has been avoided on the Korean Peninsula since the Armistice in the 1950s. And no side has anything to gain from war, especially the NKs who would see their country devastated and regime change. None of the current leadership would survive a war, or its aftermath.* War is not a survival option for NK. It is the last throw of the dice. One would think that a genuine statesperson (if there is one around) could parlay this last point into the basis for meaningful negotiations. I wish that there was someone on the international horizon who might act in this capacity but I am afraid that it is difficult to nominate any one ... any ideas people??? * Answering charges of crimes against humanity at The Hague might be the best possible outcome for Kim and his cronies - at least they would still be alive ...
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