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Mercnbeth -> Same way global warming research works? (2/7/2007 8:56:55 AM)
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The Thaos Indians in New Mexico lost their local Chief who died of old age. He had no heirs and the tribe elders were looking for a qualified candidate to become their leader. After a few months passed and it seemed as if there was nobody fit enough for the position they received a new application.
The new applicant was a young man who moved there recently and had no previous experience, but they decided that they were out of time and he was chosen to be the tribe's leader.
At first he was doing pretty well, but during his second week he was requested to perform the age old practice of predicting the upcoming winter weather. He asked around and learned that the Chief is expected to go out at night, watch the stars, and issue an official forecast of the upcoming winter so that the people can best prepare themselves, like they used to do for generations.
The young Chief doesn't have the slightest idea about stargazing. He goes out in the middle of the night looks up, but lacking a better idea, he says: “It is going to be a somewhat cold winter”. The people are a bit disappointed with this forecast because they really don’t have any substantial clue to hang on. The next day there's mounting pressure to clarify the situation.
He decides to go out at night again, but instead of looking at the sky he drives his car to a gas station. He walks to a public pay phone and calls NOAA, the National Atmospheric Administration. When they pick up he asks how's the winter gonna be. The answer is: “It is going to be cold”. So the next morning he goes out to announce an amendment: “It will be a cold winter”. The correction is well received and now the people know it is time to go out and seriously start collecting fire woods and get prepared.
But the Chief is a little concerned now. After all it is his reputation on the line. So at night he drives again to the gas station to place another phone call to NOAA. When he asks about the weather this time, he hears a slightly different answer. “This year,” they say, “it will be a very cold winter.” Now he has no choice but to issue an amendment once more. “I looked again at the stars” he tells the elders, “and it will be a very cold winter.” The stern warning doesn't get unheeded and this time the tribesmen start collecting woods with extra vigor.
But the Chief still feels uneasy, so, he drives out again and makes another phone call. The guy at the other end of the line sounds a little shaky when he delivers the new forecast. “It is going to be excruciatingly cold winter.” Our Chief can’t take this anymore so he blurs. “What’s the matter with you guys? Just a couple of nights ago you told me it will be a cold winter. Then you upgraded it to a very cold, and now, excruciatingly cold?”
After a long silence the weatherman answers with a deep sigh, “You see, I don’t know you but you keep calling so I’d like to tell you the truth. The fact is, we really have no idea about the weather, all we know is the Thaos Indians are collecting woods like crazy”.
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