Each of us faces 50 percent chance of poverty (Full Version)

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pahunkboy -> Each of us faces 50 percent chance of poverty (3/16/2007 10:41:51 AM)

http://www.theithacajournal.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070314/NEWS01/303140001/1002

Each of us faces 50 percent chance of poverty




luckydog1 -> RE: Each of us faces 50 percent chance of poverty (3/16/2007 10:53:30 AM)

Each of us faces a 50% chance of wealth also.
"
Tom Hirschl, a professor in the Department of Sociology, did a statistical analysis in 2001 of people 25 to 75 years old and found there was an equal chance that anyone could experience a year in poverty or a year of affluence over the course of their lives."
 




thompsonx -> RE: Each of us faces 50 percent chance of poverty (3/16/2007 11:28:13 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: luckydog1

Each of us faces a 50% chance of wealth also.
"
Tom Hirschl, a professor in the Department of Sociology, did a statistical analysis in 2001 of people 25 to 75 years old and found there was an equal chance that anyone could experience a year in poverty or a year of affluence over the course of their lives."
 


luckydog1:
Perhaps you should read the article in full before you make such a statement.
There is noting in the article that even alludes to that conclusion.  In fact the article speaks only of a study of 4800 families.
If you were to actually read the article I would suggest that you look closely at the next to the last paragraph.  Keep in mind that majority can mean as low as 50%+1
thompson




mnottertail -> RE: Each of us faces 50 percent chance of poverty (3/16/2007 11:32:48 AM)

Chances are--------


a comment such as that is like saying the whale is undoubtably one of the largest mammals alive today Rog......

Think about this equally astounding statement:

There is a 50% chance you will die today.

You will or you won't.  In the absence of any other factor, it is a binary.

Nat King Cole  




luckydog1 -> RE: Each of us faces 50 percent chance of poverty (3/16/2007 11:35:48 AM)

Thompson says,"There is noting in the article that even alludes to that conclusion.  "  Which is of course a lie.  The article explictily states this conclusion.  Its the second sentance.  It is the finding of the researcher.

What does the next to last paragraph have to do with anything.  If you read the article it says that people can experience both Poverty and Affluence for at least one year of their life, and they have an equal likelyhood of both.

Now apperantly you can't find anything to discredit the study, so you make a silly attack based on a direct lie.  Are you off your Meds again?




KatyLied -> RE: Each of us faces 50 percent chance of poverty (3/16/2007 11:42:35 AM)

The professor made this statement, without using numbers:

quote:

"America is a dream and a nightmare at the same time," Hirschl said.


Discuss....




pahunkboy -> RE: Each of us faces 50 percent chance of poverty (3/16/2007 11:45:50 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: KatyLied

The professor made this statement, without using numbers:

quote:

"America is a dream and a nightmare at the same time," Hirschl said.


Discuss....



bingo. i felt this way in the 80s- and today i felt it is 10 fold.

we are abundanly blessed- but fall thru the cracks- and no one know u. NO ONE.




mnottertail -> RE: Each of us faces 50 percent chance of poverty (3/16/2007 11:46:14 AM)

shall I go for the websters dictionary or the jameson-------hmmmmmmmm

apparently it is 100% irish whiskey. 

you know what is really astounding?
I saw a car with a license plate of CEH 347 today.
what are the fuckin chances of that I ask you?

I am just mystified, just mystified

Ron




thompsonx -> RE: Each of us faces 50 percent chance of poverty (3/16/2007 12:20:38 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: mnottertail

shall I go for the websters dictionary or the jameson-------hmmmmmmmm

apparently it is 100% irish whiskey. 

you know what is really astounding?
I saw a car with a license plate of CEH 347 today.
what are the fuckin chances of that I ask you?

I am just mystified, just mystified

Ron

Ron:
I believe it is 26x26x26x999... which would be 1 in 17,558,424...please correct me if I am wrong.
thompson




thompsonx -> RE: Each of us faces 50 percent chance of poverty (3/16/2007 12:47:22 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: luckydog1

Thompson says,"There is noting in the article that even alludes to that conclusion.  "  Which is of course a lie.  The article explictily states this conclusion.  Its the second sentance.  It is the finding of the researcher.
Actually the second sentence is by Jenny Daley, the author of the article.  Only the parts of the article in quotation marks are the words of the author of the study Mr. Hirschl.

What does the next to last paragraph have to do with anything. 
The next to the last paragraph has his exact words and he points out several sailent factors about his conclusions.
The paragraph above that has a rather telling opinion by Jenny Daley about factors that were outside the purview of the study.

If you read the article it says that people can experience both Poverty and Affluence for at least one year of their life, and they have an equal likelyhood of both.
The study was a statistical analysis of 4800 people.  Your statement (which is the one I was disagreeing with) was that each of us has a 50% chance of wealth.  Your statement is inclusive of all people in the U.S, His research was inclusive of only those in his study.

Now apperantly you can't find anything to discredit the study, so you make a silly attack based on a direct lie. 
Must you persist in personal attacks.  Do you not feel any compunction to discuss.  I have not attempted to discredit the research.  What I have done is point out what he said as opposed to what your interpretation seems to be.

Are you off your Meds again?
Nope...my meds are delivered to me by a uniformed emisary of the U.S, government.  I am willing to share if it would help to get your underwear out of the bunch that they seem to be in.
thompson




seeksfemslave -> RE: Each of us faces 50 percent chance of poverty (3/16/2007 3:14:51 PM)

Generally I post from a hard line right wing view but on this one I support the "softees"
The point surely is not a split between poverty or not poverty, truly a 2:1 triviality, but that 50% of the US population faces those alternatives in any given year NO? 

It is shocking, but inevitable in a devil take the hindmost economy.

Thompson:
I think we are begining to have a bit of a "love in" but with regard to licence plate CEH347 the correct odds are TC:1 where TC= the total number of cars on the road, since that plate is unique. lol
I have consumed my usual evening libation so I could be wrong.

I have heard the definition that a Liberal is a Conservative who hasn't been mugged yet, I am beginning to wonder if I might be a Liberal who cant control his selfishness !!




thompsonx -> RE: Each of us faces 50 percent chance of poverty (3/16/2007 3:46:08 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: seeksfemslave

Generally I post from a hard line right wing view but on this one I support the "softees"
The point surely is not a split between poverty or not poverty, truly a 2:1 triviality, but that 50% of the US population faces those alternatives in any given year NO? 

It is shocking, but inevitable in a devil take the hindmost economy.

Thompson:
I think we are begining to have a bit of a "love in" but with regard to licence plate CEH347 the correct odds are TC:1 where TC= the total number of cars on the road, since that plate is unique. lol
I have consumed my usual evening libation so I could be wrong.

I have heard the definition that a Liberal is a Conservative who hasn't been mugged yet, I am beginning to wonder if I might be a Liberal who cant control his selfishness !!


seeksfemslave:
I would agree that TC:1 is a viable solution because it considers all the cars on the road with that set of symbols in that configuration.
While my solution deals with the total combinations of that set of symbols in that configuration.  My solution assumes that all combinations have been issued.  Your solution deals with the actual number that have been issued.  We will probably have to call Ron back in to ask him for a determination of his original question to find out what he was actually asking.
thompson




seeksfemslave -> RE: Each of us faces 50 percent chance of poverty (3/16/2007 4:03:36 PM)

No dont call Ron Mr T because I will have to employ an expletive deleter and a mystical translator to understand him. lol
However you still thru' a wobbler even using your definition.
You should have said ......
26.26.26.10.10.10..

Sorry about this 10.10.10 = 1000. Shit, I told you I had had a little sip or two.

Even that's not totally correct since licencing authorities wont issue plates like
FUK 123 or  KOK 321....will they ?




luckydog1 -> RE: Each of us faces 50 percent chance of poverty (3/16/2007 4:37:47 PM)

thompson, ok statistical cluster sampling is not valid in your opinion.  If you disagree with the study attack it, not me.  I just quoted the results.




Vendaval -> RE: Each of us faces 50 percent chance of poverty (3/16/2007 6:31:35 PM)

I have the Guiness and the Bailey's right here.  Need to pick up a bottle of
Bushmills.  [:)]

quote:

ORIGINAL: mnottertail
shall I go for the websters dictionary or the jameson-------hmmmmmmmm
apparently it is 100% irish whiskey. 

Ron




Vendaval -> RE: Each of us faces 50 percent chance of poverty (3/16/2007 6:33:57 PM)

Quoting the next to the last paragraph -
 
" Understanding that even for those outside these sub-groups it is still true that "the majority of Americans will encounter economic vulnerability at some point during their lives can facilitate a fundamental shift in terms of how poverty is perceived and acted upon at the policy level," wrote Hirschl. "Such a conceptual change begins with the realization that poverty can no longer be viewed as an issue that merely pertains to others, but rather as one that belongs to us all." "




domiguy -> RE: Each of us faces 50 percent chance of poverty (3/16/2007 6:43:03 PM)

quote:

seeksfemslave
I have heard the definition that a Liberal is a Conservative who hasn't been mugged yet, I am beginning to wonder if I might be a Liberal who cant control his selfishness !!


Yep, there are many liberals who are hiding at the bottom of their wallet.

I too saw the license plate CEH 347 today, what are the odds that behind the wheel would be a fat sub?

Think I might go out and have a drink or ten of Jameson this eve....Might make the driver of CEH 347 a tad bit more palatable.




thompsonx -> RE: Each of us faces 50 percent chance of poverty (3/16/2007 9:44:28 PM)

o
quote:

ORIGINAL: luckydog1

thompson, ok statistical cluster sampling is not valid in your opinion.
I only pointed out it was a sample of a limited number of people.

If you disagree with the study attack it, not me. 
I  only disagreed with your interpretation of the study.

I just quoted the results.
No you did not...you stated your opinion of your faulty interpretation of the results.
Perhaps you should try learning how to read.  For a man who claims to be 37 you seem to have rather limited comprehension skills.
thompson




thompsonx -> RE: Each of us faces 50 percent chance of poverty (3/16/2007 9:56:09 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Vendaval

Quoting the next to the last paragraph -
 
" Understanding that even for those outside these sub-groups it is still true that "the majority of Americans will encounter economic vulnerability at some point during their lives can facilitate a fundamental shift in terms of how poverty is perceived and acted upon at the policy level," wrote Hirschl. "Such a conceptual change begins with the realization that poverty can no longer be viewed as an issue that merely pertains to others, but rather as one that belongs to us all." "

Vendaval:
This is the crux of the study...while pointing out that those that are normally considered poverty striken constitute the thrust of the welfare system ...this study shows that not only those who are chronically poverty striken but also the vast majority of the rest of us are also likely to experience poverty up to the  50th percental.
This study, of course does not address the uber rich, or even the upper economic class.
The results are to be expected and are not exactly earth shatering in their conclusions.
I had a year long class in university on imperial chinese history....one of the things we studied was upward mobility of the chinese during the tang dynasty...pretty much the same results.  Funny how the more things change the more they stay the same.
thompson




luckydog1 -> RE: Each of us faces 50 percent chance of poverty (3/16/2007 10:34:51 PM)

I stated nothing but an actuall quote from the article....All sampling is done from a limited number of people, thats what it means.  Perhaps you did not know that.  I did not intrepret it, I quoted it.  And you claim I have limited comprehension skills?  okey dokey




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