US Army Desertion Rates Mis-stated! (Full Version)

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FirmhandKY -> US Army Desertion Rates Mis-stated! (3/26/2007 12:06:01 AM)

From the NYT:

Army Revises Upward Number of Desertions in ’06

A total of 3,196 active-duty soldiers deserted the Army last year, or 853 more than previously reported, according to revised figures from the Army.

The new calculations by the Army, which had about 500,000 active-duty troops at the end of 2006, significantly alter the annual desertion totals since the 2000 fiscal year.

In 2005, for example, the Army now says 2,543 soldiers deserted, not the 2,011 it had reported. For some earlier years, the desertion numbers were revised downward.

National Public Radio first reported on Tuesday that the Army had been inaccurately reporting desertion figures.

A soldier is considered a deserter if he leaves his post without permission, quits his unit or fails to report for duty with the intent of staying away permanently. Soldiers who are absent without leave — or AWOL, a designation that assumes a soldier still intends to return to duty — are automatically classified as deserters and are dropped from a unit’s rolls if they remain away for more than 30 days.

Some Army officers link the recent uptick in annual desertion rates to the toll of wartime deployments and point to the increasing percentage of troops who are on their second or third tours in Iraq or Afghanistan.


Read the story, and you get this chilling feeling that there is definitely something wrong.  However, now read this tongue in cheek interpretation of the same exact facts:

Army Desertions Rise to Near All-Time Average

(2007-03-23) — The Pentagon today admitted that, due to the Bush administration’s hugely unpopular war in Iraq, desertions from the Army have increased in each of the last two years, reaching almost 75 percent of pre-war levels.

According to a story in The New York Times, citing a National Public Radio report, the Pentagon has miscalculated desertion figures in recent years, in part because the Defense Department inexplicably misplaced personnel records during what officials called an “isolated incident at the office” on September 11, 2001.

With demoralized soldiers bolting the service at rates approaching the peace-time average — and almost 30 percent of the Vietnam war era average — Pentagon officials failed to offer a plan to halt what one reporter called “an exodus of Biblical proportions”.

Great example of exposing a bias, with humor.  [:)]

FirmKY




farglebargle -> RE: US Army Desertion Rates Mis-stated! (3/26/2007 5:11:53 AM)

Isn't using numbers provided by an organization which is untrustworthy to draw a conclusion pretty pointless in the first place?

What's Iraqi Vets against The War say, for instance?





Termyn8or -> RE: US Army Desertion Rates Mis-stated! (3/26/2007 5:57:24 AM)

It has been now pointed out that they lied. The only question is were they lying then or are they lying now ?

T




juliaoceania -> RE: US Army Desertion Rates Mis-stated! (3/26/2007 6:19:46 AM)

quote:

“It is just unbelievable to the G.A.O. to hear that the Army does not know what that number is,” Mr. Stewart said in an interview Thursday.
Noting that the problem with the desertion numbers arises when the service cannot find enough recruits to fill certain crucial specialties like medical experts and bomb defusers Mr. Stewart said, “In the context of their current recruiting problems for certain occupations, these desertion numbers are huge.”


From your own article.

I would also like to point out, desertion from the National Guard is not calculated by the Army... since they comprise a huge number of the forces in Iraq, this number is still very deceptive. I would wonder if people are AWOL if they are around to tell the army why the Hell they left too.




mnottertail -> RE: US Army Desertion Rates Mis-stated! (3/26/2007 6:32:19 AM)

I might disagree with part of what she stated, I dont see the numbers as huge, now if they were all medics-----------


Yeah.

Ron




juliaoceania -> RE: US Army Desertion Rates Mis-stated! (3/26/2007 6:46:08 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: mnottertail

I might disagree with part of what she stated, I dont see the numbers as huge, now if they were all medics-----------


Yeah.

Ron



Well KY is the one that posted the article that states the numbers are huge..smiles




Sanity -> RE: US Army Desertion Rates Mis-stated! (3/26/2007 6:51:47 AM)

You think that, if the numbers are approaching the peace-time average, it's a huge victory for your side?

O-kayyy

quote:

ORIGINAL: juliaoceania

Well KY is the one that posted the article that states the numbers are huge..smiles




FirmhandKY -> RE: US Army Desertion Rates Mis-stated! (3/26/2007 7:20:32 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Sanity

You think that, if the numbers are approaching the peace-time average, it's a huge victory for your side?

O-kayyy

quote:

ORIGINAL: juliaoceania

Well KY is the one that posted the article that states the numbers are huge..smiles



Its funny as hell, isn't it Sanity?

The bias is there, plain as anything - and they see only things that confirm their own preconceptions.

Absolute blindness and ideological commitment.

FirmKY




FirmhandKY -> RE: US Army Desertion Rates Mis-stated! (3/26/2007 7:26:06 AM)

Damn.  I forgot, Irony and humor is lost on that side. 

FirmKY




domiguy -> RE: US Army Desertion Rates Mis-stated! (3/26/2007 8:40:33 AM)

First off the libs are the kings of irony and humor....Name 5 conservative comedians...lol.

You make the original post because you think it backs your "cause"...Remember there is no draft...Everyone volunteered..I would expect there to be a very small amount of people who wouldn't stick with what they agreed upon.




mnottertail -> RE: US Army Desertion Rates Mis-stated! (3/26/2007 8:43:50 AM)

Strom Thurman
Jessie Helms
Dick Cheney
Geo Bush


Dammit!!!!! can't do 'er?  It's on the tip of my tongue tho..........

Ron




FirmhandKY -> RE: US Army Desertion Rates Mis-stated! (3/26/2007 8:45:51 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: mnottertail

Strom Thurman
Jessie Helms
Dick Cheney
Geo Bush


Dammit!!!!! can't do 'er?  It's on the tip of my tongue tho..........


Ann Coulter and Rush Limbaugh? [:D][:D]




mnottertail -> RE: US Army Desertion Rates Mis-stated! (3/26/2007 8:47:52 AM)

LOL,

I will take Rush, for the daily double Alex.......

Coulter is just a garden variety quim.
Ron




domiguy -> RE: US Army Desertion Rates Mis-stated! (3/26/2007 8:49:05 AM)

Let's see Dennis Miller, George Carlin?....Maybe some of those red neck comedians? They watch Nascar.




FirmhandKY -> RE: US Army Desertion Rates Mis-stated! (3/26/2007 8:54:02 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: domiguy

First off the libs are the kings of irony and humor....Name 5 conservative comedians...lol.

You make the original post because you think it backs your "cause"...Remember there is no draft...Everyone volunteered..I would expect there to be a very small amount of people who wouldn't stick with what they agreed upon.


1.  We haven't had a draft since ... 1973 or 1976?  I'd have to check the exact year, but early 1970s. That's 30 years, at least.

2. The point was the difference between the presentation of the same facts in two different formats.  Same exact information, but one is negative as hell, the other points it out.

The killer was "Army Desertions Rise to Near All-Time Average".  That is hilarious!  [:D][:D]

A neutral spin NYT headline would have been "Army Corrects Desertions Figures:  Still 25% Lower During Time of War!". 

FirmKY




domiguy -> RE: US Army Desertion Rates Mis-stated! (3/26/2007 9:49:39 AM)

I didn't see what you did... in fact the original article pointed out that the total amount of deserters was less than 1%...The quote that said the Army faced problems was from Mr. Stewart who works for the Army/Gov't?...At this point any info the army puts out is going to be scrutinized...And rightfully so!...Because this is from the same writers who brought you the "Heroic death of Pat Tillman" I understand it is getting rave reviews on Broadway!!!....They are at least a creative if not a down right funny lot.




FirmhandKY -> RE: US Army Desertion Rates Mis-stated! (3/27/2007 12:35:09 PM)

Ok, compare the NYT article to this one, which I consider much more professional:

Bad Numbers Hide the Unexpected

March 27, 2007: U.S. Army bureaucrats screwed up some statistics again. This time it was the desertion rate. No big deal. The army had 3,196 troops desert in 2006, 2,543 in 2005, and 2,357 in 2004. The desertion rate hit a peak in 2002, with 4,483 walking away. The army began to screen more carefully for adaptation problems, and has cut their number of deserters nearly in half. Desertion is the largest cause of losses in the military, larger than combat, and non-combat, deaths and serious (resulting in medical discharge) injuries.)

The counting error, attributed to mistakes made by several clerks and supervisors, did not change the total number of deserters for the period  2000-2006. The  corrected number is 22,468, compared to 22,586 for the bad count. Most of the errors were deserters being listed in the wrong year.


...

Bad numbers are nothing new. For example, the Department of Defense used to report that the number of combat deaths in the Korean war were higher (by over 10,000 dead) than they actually were. This was because, early on, someone mistakenly added all the accidental deaths, world-wide, for the United States military, during the period of the war (1950-53), to the total combat dead. It wasn't until the 1980s that this got cleared up.


Big difference in emotional impact from the NYT story, no partisan BS, and a clear statement of the actual impact.

FirmKY




Seatonstomb -> RE: US Army Desertion Rates Mis-stated! (3/27/2007 2:07:17 PM)

Last night Panorama (BBC current Affairs Program) went on about deserters and those awol. In many ways it claimed that the army was to blame, for not wrapping soldiers up in cotton wool.  and recruiting youngsters without telling them they might have to be soldiers.




FirmhandKY -> RE: US Army Desertion Rates Mis-stated! (3/27/2007 3:06:53 PM)

Do you see bias in the fact that desertion levels are lower than in peacetime, yet there is an entire documentary on "the desertion problem" during an "unpopular war"?

FirmKY




Real0ne -> RE: US Army Desertion Rates Mis-stated! (3/27/2007 3:40:46 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: mnottertail

LOL,

I will take Rush, for the daily double Alex.......

Coulter is just a garden variety quim.
Ron

at least alex is bipartisan

deserter what a nasty mark on their records





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