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Vendaval -> "Pro-independent party poised for win" (5/3/2007 5:36:54 PM)
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"Pro-independence party poised for win"
By DAVID STRINGER, Associated Press Writer
Thu May 3, 4:17 PM ET
" EDINBURGH, Scotland - Scotland marks the 300th anniversary this week of its union with England to create Great Britain. Even as it observes that milestone, Scots are poised to hand a resounding election victory to a party that vows to dismantle the union.
For Treasury Chief Gordon Brown, the proud Scotsman preparing to succeed Tony Blair as Britain's prime minister, there's a bitter irony: With his moment of triumph in sight, his homeland may be slipping from his grasp.
As voting got under way Thursday, the Scottish National Party was poised to sweep elections in Scotland's regional government, claiming a mandate to chart a path toward an eventual split. The party, which has pledged an independence referendum by 2010, dreams of an independent nation matching the economic successes of neighboring Ireland, rather than relying on heavy subsidies from London.
At the heart of the matter is the nature of nationhood at a time when the European Union — an even broader umbrella — might be seen as a guarantor of peace and prosperity no less great than Britain. And while Scotland would not have automatic entry, few believe it wouldn't ultimately join the 27-member club.
There are significant economic subplots.
With independence, Scotland would control lucrative oil and natural gas reserves in the North Sea. The Scottish National Party also promises drastic corporate tax cuts that would attract foreign investment and, it claims, transform Scotland into a Tartan Tiger on a par with Ireland's Celtic Tiger.
Brown and the governing Labour Party, however, warn breaking free would wreck the Scottish economy. The territory lags behind England economically and benefits more from British public spending than it contributes in national taxes.
And it would be a humiliation for Labour to have presided over the breakup of Great Britain — even though the English and the Scots share a surprising antipathy.
Will a divorce take place? Perhaps not so fast. Despite the Scottish National Party's growing support, an independent Scotland may be far off.
Polls show that less than a third of Scots want to leave the union, and even Scottish National Party activists acknowledge rancor over Blair's 10-year premiership is helping their cause as much as a desire for independence. Fueling the party's success has been dissent over the Iraq war and domestic policies Scots feel have stunted economic growth.
A booming, independent Scotland is the vision party leader Alex Salmond sells to shopkeepers as he darts between stores in the border town of Selkirk, the spot where William Wallace, the famed patriot who resisted English occupation, was named guardian of Scotland — or de facto head of state — in 1298.
Unlike the legendary outlaw given Hollywood treatment in the movie "Braveheart," Salmond claims efficient governance will prove a Scotland ruled by his party can manage its affairs without interference from London.
"This is about having a chance to show what we can do as an administration," Salmond said. "Then, in 2010 we'll ask the voters of Scotland for their permission, in a referendum, to move forward to independence."
Polls suggest his party will claim the largest share of seats in Scotland's 129-member parliament and form a coalition government — probably with the Liberal Democrats, who have previously sided with governing Labour. Results of the ballot held every four years are expected in the early hours of Friday.
Labour has been the largest party since Scotland's parliament was established in 1999, following an overwhelming vote in favor of a domestic legislative body in 1997. It has never run second in a Scottish poll since 1955.
Scotland's parliament passes laws on education, health and justice, but London retains primacy on all matters relating to Britain as a whole — including defense, energy and foreign relations.
Actor Sean Connery is the Scottish National Party's leading celebrity supporter and claims "there will never be a better opportunity than now," to move toward independence, lending his distinct Scottish accent to a campaign video.
Convincing voters of the need for secession will take more than celebrity endorsements, pollsters say.
Salmond's chief foe will be Brown, who has launched an urgent defense of Great Britain, telling an Edinburgh rally any split would leave Scotland bankrupt and marginalized on the world stage.
Voters aiming to use Scottish elections to sting Blair will cause an enormous headache for his successor, said analyst Phil Cowley, handing him a neighbor who could undermine Brown's authority ahead of national polls in 2009 or 2010.
"He has always seen Scotland as his fiefdom," Cowley said. "When you do badly in the fiefdom, you suffer." "
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070503/ap_on_re_eu/britain_scotland;_ylt=AjQDG7CCpQyyZ7_l1xK8eL9vaA8F
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