FirmhandKY
Posts: 8948
Joined: 9/21/2004 Status: offline
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quote:
ORIGINAL: caitlyn Well, one thing has happened in all the time I've been away from these forums ... election day has gotten closer, and the tone has gotten more harsh. Now, back on topic, while not wishing to justify the war (which won't stop Fargle from insinuating it anyway ... probably in all caps), it's pretty clear that "something" is starting to have an impact over there. Casualty figures have dropped significantly. Now, the person I know that spent a lot of time over there (and yes, contrary to popular opinion, soldiers actually do come home), would tell me that the surge had real meaning and matters to a great extent ... which I'm sure would get the response from Synergy, that troops over there really don't have even close to as good a view as he has from behind the computer in his den. FirmHanky ... don't back Rush ... and if you happen to know him, can he maybe get me some uppers to help out during finals? All in good fun ... Caitz caitz, Welcome back. I'm not on here that much anymore right now, myself. I've been working a major consulting job out of town for the last several months, on top of my normal workload, and what little time I have left I have to decide whether or not to spend it on the forums, or with Treasure. Generally, Treasure wins. On to topic .... I think you may remember a thread that I was heavily involved in several months ago (the one where Northern Gent and I got to refighting the First World War, I think). My main thesis has always been that the winner will be the side that refuses to quit, and that it is the American Congress and the American people that have always been the main focus of the insurgency/Islamicist attacks in Iraq. In another thread, I even charted US casualties against political developments in the US and Iraq, and there seems to be a pretty convincing connection. I think that Bush's reelection put a hurt on a lot of Arabic calculations. The failure of the Democratic Congress to live up to it's antiwar rhetoric has been even more devastating, I think. The surge, on top of that, I think has convinced a large number of insurgents and the Iraqi people that the Americans simply aren't going to be made to disappear, and therefore some sort of accommodation is/was needed. So, while the "war" isn't quite won yet, and things could still spiral out of control, I think that things are certainly headed in the right direction. Was it simply "the surge" that has caused the change on the ground? No. It was a factor, however, along with a reduced Sunni population due to migration, along with revulsion of the general Iraqi population to AQ terror attacks, along with the seeming inability of the AQ and Sunni propaganda war's victory with the Democratic Party to be translated into any major change of American position on the ground in Iraq, and other factors. Some people want to point to the start of the turn around as happening "before" the surge, and therefore able to condemn the surge as "just another failed policy". These are often also the same people who then claim there has been no progress at all (I call em the "cake and eat it too" crowd). The truth is that wars are often won and lost for many reasons, and the surge was just another factor. I suggest it will be a pretty good question for future grad students writing their Master's thesis to determine how much importance to finally place on it. Firm
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Some people are just idiots.
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