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RE: Global Market Meltdown? Make Your Year-End Predicti... - 1/22/2008 3:10:02 PM

awmslave

Posts: 599
Joined: 3/31/2006
Status: offline

I believe as some economists do that US did not come out of 2000 recession normally but it was kept afloat with creating easy credit and deficit spending (borrowing). I do not see clear force that can bring US out of economic slowdown. US government has very little options: interest rate manipulation has been basically exhausted, ongoing selling off US assets is not a long term solution but digs US deeper into trouble. I believe the ideas rule the World. The most important thing to understand at this point is in my view that society's wealth can only be created by producing something with real value. Just running money around will eventually lead to Haiti type society. Focusing on stock market numbers without analysis of underlying economy is not quite smart approach. Today's US Stock market does not reflect US economy as most top companies are multinationals. Also, foreign companies list on US stock market.
For that reason I believe the US stock market does not fall sharply. My guess is Dow Jones index will not go down more than to about 10,000.
The biggest danger is an increase in unemployment and this is government should focus on. Stimulus package proposed (giving a little money away to banks and public) changes practically nothing. If I was in charge I would lower taxes, cut government spending in places that does not cause massive job losses and set up tarrifs to foreign goods and services. It would be real stimulus package as opposed to the phony one Washington fools will introduce soon.

(in reply to pahunkboy)

Post #: 21

RE: Global Market Meltdown? Make Your Year-End Predicti... - 1/22/2008 3:36:19 PM

LadyEllen

Posts: 10931
Joined: 6/30/2006
From: Stourport-England
Status: offline

I predict that the Euro/GBP exchange rate will be back to around 1.45/1.00 by June, or I'll be looking for a new business.

E

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In a test against the leading brand, 9 out of 10 participants couldnt tell the difference. Dumbasses.

(in reply to awmslave)

Post #: 22

RE: Global Market Meltdown? Make Your Year-End Predicti... - 1/22/2008 4:12:02 PM

Zensee

Posts: 1564
Joined: 9/4/2004
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: subfever

quote:

ORIGINAL: Sanity

I second that.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Zensee

Good time to buy.

Z.

Buy what?

To buy stocks, especially blue chip or dividend paying ones. You should buy stocks for longterm, and long term the value of solid ones go up. Markets rise and fall, buy when everyone sells and sell when everyone buys.

A market panic is mostly psychological; a self generating, mass hysteria, usually triggered by a the collapse of a bubble of unfounded optimism in an unrealistc (and supposedly new but it's always the same old crap) investment scheme. While the collapse or correction is usually significant and painful, the mad rush to divest does ten times more damage.

Z.

_____________________________

"Before enlightenment, chop wood and carry water. After enlightenment, chop wood and carry water." (proverb)

(in reply to subfever)

Post #: 23

RE: Global Market Meltdown? Make Your Year-End Predicti... - 1/22/2008 7:39:47 PM

UtopianRanger

Posts: 3251
Status: offline

Twenty-two posts…..Milargo!!! Tip of the Corona bottle to everyone with the chutzpah that made a prediction or commented with their outlook.

I gota chuckle tho…..Yanno there’s been so many threads where folks have made it known that they’re mad as hell because the administration might enact legislation that freezes the teaser rates in hopes of thwarting a complete meltdown.

Well….how come the same proprietors of natural flow /natural progression {Yanno….let the free market right itself} never speak up when ''plunge protection'' intervenes and saves the day?

Surely none here believes that the market through natural flow righted itself after being down 400 points today?

I say let the sell off’s happen, and don’t intervene --- Let her burn!!!

Then we can really witness the free market at work!

- R

_____________________________

"If you are going to win any battle, you have to do one thing. You have to make the mind run the body. Never let the body tell the mind what to do... the body is never tired if the mind is not tired."

-General George S. Patton

(in reply to subfever)

Post #: 24

RE: Global Market Meltdown? Make Your Year-End Predicti... - 1/22/2008 7:45:39 PM

Zensee

Posts: 1564
Joined: 9/4/2004
Status: offline

Ah - the free market! Free to be serfs and Lords again.

You know though, feudalism is the most stable political structure....

Z.

_____________________________

"Before enlightenment, chop wood and carry water. After enlightenment, chop wood and carry water." (proverb)

(in reply to UtopianRanger)

Post #: 25

RE: Global Market Meltdown? Make Your Year-End Predicti... - 1/22/2008 7:46:02 PM

MzMia

Posts: 5333
Joined: 7/30/2004
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Feric

The USA is headed for a recession. Debt in the U.S. is high, the trade deficit has never lowered, and Bush's wars are draining men and resources with no sign of an end. My prediction is that we will see a repeat of "stagflation", which last occurred at the end of the Vietnam War: a stagnant economy and rising inflation.Whoever wins the White House will have to deal with it; glad it's not me!

**I have said we are ALREADY in a recession, and we could be
headed for a depression.**

Either people can't accept the truth OR people just don't like calling it like it is.
At least for those of us that see it coming, it is a great time to get rid of much debt as we can,
before shit really hits the fan.

Odds of rate cuts increase; Goldman Sachs sees U.S. recession in 2008

Buddy can you spare a dime? is now Buddy can you spare $5 for a loaf of bread?

< Message edited by MzMia -- 1/22/2008 7:57:22 PM >

_____________________________

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To Each His/Her Own
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(in reply to Feric)

Post #: 26

RE: Global Market Meltdown? Make Your Year-End Predicti... - 1/22/2008 9:27:49 PM

subfever

Posts: 2895
Joined: 5/22/2004
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: UtopianRanger

I gota chuckle tho…..Yanno there’s been so many threads where folks have made it known that they’re mad as hell because the administration might enact legislation that freezes the teaser rates in hopes of thwarting a complete meltdown.

Well….how come the same proprietors of natural flow /natural progression {Yanno….let the free market right itself} never speak up when ''plunge protection'' intervenes and saves the day?

Surely none here believes that the market through natural flow righted itself after being down 400 points today?

I say let the sell off’s happen, and don’t intervene --- Let her burn!!!

Then we can really witness the free market at work!

- R

Excellent point! The market was most certainly intervened by the PTB today.

Come on all you free-market pundits, what say you?

(in reply to UtopianRanger)

Post #: 27

RE: Global Market Meltdown? Make Your Year-End Predicti... - 1/22/2008 10:23:06 PM

subfever

Posts: 2895
Joined: 5/22/2004
Status: offline

PS... UR, earlier in this thread, you gave us your year-end prediction on the Dow. Would you care to hazard a guess on the S&P500? ...

(in reply to UtopianRanger)

Post #: 28

RE: Global Market Meltdown? Make Your Year-End Predicti... - 1/23/2008 12:25:22 AM

UtopianRanger

Posts: 3251
Status: offline

Yeah....I meant to post that on my last trip. I think it's going drop below 1100.00. But I also think the ''President's working group on financial markets'' will be in there infusing Federal Reserve money every time it starts to slide.

It's my bet that contrary to what most believe---regards a surge once Bush is replaced---we'll see a pretty good blow-out during the mid to late part of the first quarter 2009.

And I wanted to mention that I think a lot of these banks are in a lot more trouble than what's being played out in the mainstream news. Hell....China just pulled outa the deal to acquire a percentage of Citibank, with a much needed large cash infusion. A lot of these banks are actually insolvent--- and that oughta scare some people.

I'm inclined to ride with the lady from Virginia ----I think we’re talking depression.

- R

_____________________________

"If you are going to win any battle, you have to do one thing. You have to make the mind run the body. Never let the body tell the mind what to do... the body is never tired if the mind is not tired."

-General George S. Patton

(in reply to subfever)

Post #: 29

RE: Global Market Meltdown? Make Your Year-End Predicti... - 1/23/2008 12:40:51 AM

Zensee

Posts: 1564
Joined: 9/4/2004
Status: offline

UR, you mean there's not enough gold to honor the paper? Gasp!

Time to ditch the gold standard and secure national currencies with fresh water instead.

Z.

_____________________________

"Before enlightenment, chop wood and carry water. After enlightenment, chop wood and carry water." (proverb)

(in reply to UtopianRanger)

Post #: 30

RE: Global Market Meltdown? Make Your Year-End Predicti... - 1/23/2008 12:45:41 AM

luckydog1

Posts: 2736
Joined: 1/16/2006
Status: offline

Zensee, that is as interesting idea for the post petro dollar world as I have ever heard.

I can't pretend to be a market expert, so have no solid prediction. I will predict that the Mainstream media will be filled with nothing but "Depression is coming" talk untill the election occurs, and that will certainly drive down the market. We are also facing real problems which will drive down the economy. And both together will be pretty bad. Can I say the market will be down 17% as a prediction?

(in reply to Zensee)

Post #: 31

RE: Global Market Meltdown? Make Your Year-End Predicti... - 1/23/2008 1:47:10 AM

UtopianRanger

Posts: 3251
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Zensee

UR, you mean there's not enough gold to honor the paper? Gasp!

Time to ditch the gold standard and secure national currencies with fresh water instead.

Z.

Zensee...

If you go back to 1929 - 33, most folks will tell you that it was the market crash or a housing bubble in Florida that was the catalyst / main event for that period. But I think if you look more deeply--- like you've just mentioned--- the true catalyst for the global pandemic was when the British government defaulted on the gold standard during the winter of 1931.

One more thing : You mentioned water. Fresh water will be a very valuable commodity in the near future....and your citizenry holds the rights to sixty-six percent of the entire world's fresh water reserves.....so as a Canadian, I'd kick and scream to protect and make damn sure it doesn't become part of the free market.

quote:

I can't pretend to be a market expert, so have no solid prediction. I will predict that the Mainstream media will be filled with nothing but "Depression is coming" talk untill the election occurs, and that will certainly drive down the market. We are also facing real problems which will drive down the economy. And both together will be pretty bad. Can I say the market will be down 17% as a prediction?

That's close to two-thousand points depending upon where your starting point is. And I think two-thousand points is in the ball park.

- R

< Message edited by UtopianRanger -- 1/23/2008 1:48:47 AM >

_____________________________

"If you are going to win any battle, you have to do one thing. You have to make the mind run the body. Never let the body tell the mind what to do... the body is never tired if the mind is not tired."

-General George S. Patton

(in reply to Zensee)

Post #: 32

RE: Global Market Meltdown? Make Your Year-End Predicti... - 1/23/2008 2:03:13 AM

Zensee

Posts: 1564
Joined: 9/4/2004
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: UtopianRanger

One more thing : You mentioned water. Fresh water will be a very valuable commodity in the near future....and your citizenry holds the rights to sixty-six percent of the entire world's fresh water reserves.....so as a Canadian, I'd kick and scream to protect and make damn sure it doesn't become part of the free market.

- R

*Cavorts, Scrooge McDuck like, in the back yard pool* - "Mine! Mine! All MINE! Muahahahaha..."

Z.

_____________________________

"Before enlightenment, chop wood and carry water. After enlightenment, chop wood and carry water." (proverb)

(in reply to UtopianRanger)

Post #: 33

RE: Global Market Meltdown? Make Your Year-End Predicti... - 1/23/2008 6:06:37 AM

subfever

Posts: 2895
Joined: 5/22/2004
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: UtopianRanger

Yeah....I meant to post that on my last trip. I think it's going drop below 1100.00.

- R

Ahem... should we put you down for 1099.75 then? ...

(in reply to UtopianRanger)

Post #: 34

RE: Global Market Meltdown? Make Your Year-End Predicti... - 1/23/2008 6:39:33 AM

subfever

Posts: 2895
Joined: 5/22/2004
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: luckydog1

...Can I say the market will be down 17% as a prediction?

Sure, you can say anything you like as a prediction. That's pretty much the intent of this thread. But we'd rather see it expressed as a number as opposed to a percentage...

< Message edited by subfever -- 1/23/2008 6:46:17 AM >

(in reply to luckydog1)

Post #: 35

RE: Global Market Meltdown? Make Your Year-End Predicti... - 1/23/2008 6:45:33 AM

subfever

Posts: 2895
Joined: 5/22/2004
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Zensee

Time to ditch the gold standard and secure national currencies with fresh water instead.

What a job it'll be defending all of Canada's waterways from needy folks looking to scoop out a few liters!

But I do believe that Canada will become the richest nation on earth one day, by virtue of her water resources.

(in reply to Zensee)

Post #: 36

RE: Global Market Meltdown? Make Your Year-End Predicti... - 1/23/2008 6:53:54 AM

subfever

Posts: 2895
Joined: 5/22/2004
Status: offline

quote:

If you go back to 1929 - 33, most folks will tell you that it was the market crash or a housing bubble in Florida that was the catalyst / main event for that period. But I think if you look more deeply--- like you've just mentioned--- the true catalyst for the global pandemic was when the British government defaulted on the gold standard during the winter of 1931.

One thing for sure, the charlatans behind central banking are typically the orchestra of financial calamities. And the fact that the headlines of the lapdog media are filled with predictions of recession does gnaw away at me. Not because I fear recession, but because I don't trust those charlatans.

Here's a good reason why:

http://www.tarpley.net/29crash.htm

(in reply to UtopianRanger)

Post #: 37

RE: Global Market Meltdown? Make Your Year-End Predicti... - 1/23/2008 7:35:31 AM

samboct

Posts: 1817
Joined: 1/17/2007
Status: offline

OK- I like shooting my mouth off on this forum- so I'll take a swing-

1) The Dow is probably going to drop a total of 10% from where it is now- so call it around 10,000.
2) I don't follow the S + P much at all but doesn't it generally track the Dow- so call it 1100.
3) I think the Nasdaq is going to outpace both- so I'm betting on 3,000 here.

Here's what I'm looking at for these prognostications-

1) Agree with UR about the real estate bubble- don't think we've heard the last of it. What I recall was that you shouldn't buy a house that's more than 3x your income- preferably 2x. Even if you're cracking 6 figures- that doesn't get to housing prices over $500k.
2) There's a metric buttload of cash out there in private equity. (Thank you GWB- AGAIN!!!) This money is currently largely risk averse, yet is greedy and wants big gains. It's been distorting the VC market which has more money than it can absorb, being very poorly run. It's also lead to the real estate bubble- lots of "investors" driving up the prices. What's gonna piss me off is that the taxpayer is going to get called on to bail out the homeowner (I am always furious at the nimrods who blather about "free market" capitalism- which gets translated to unregulated capitalism- which means that the taxpayer gets stuck with the bill when some market gyration leads to something untenable and then these bozos remain silent when the foreseeable meltdown occurs. Yes, they're incredibly stupid- they haven't learned the lessons of history, and we all pay a price for this idiocy. Can we please reduce the charge of assault and battery on a jerk like Rush Limbaugh to a misdemeanor- I'll happily pay a fine if I can punch the guy in his nose.) which may be nigh impossible to distinguish between "investor" (who deserves not a damn thing in my book) and the average homeowner who's gotten screwed by absurd financial "products". (Bearing a striking resemblance to the "product" of an infant which is generally caught by a diaper.)
3) Believe in global warming or not- there's increasing amounts of market demand for alternatives to fossil fuels, and "green" construction is taking off rapidly. Most of the companies that will benefit are in the Nasdaq or privately held. And to UR's comment about nanotech- Nanosolar may count as nanotechnology's most visible hit to date. Hence, money is going to run to the Nasdaq. It would be more successful if VC firms manage to figure a few things out (like in order to have a wildly profitable company, it helps to be in business in 5 years.) but that would require brains and an honest desire to make money, rather than have a massive ego.

As Krugman pointed out- debunking the Reagan myth is important and still doesn't seem to be happening. GWB has applied Reaganomics with tax breaks for the wealthy and combined it with a very expensive war that he's made no attempt to pay for. In short he's been trying to bankrupt the country, and he's done a damn good job. We're either going to pull out of this tailspin, or we're going to become a third world country in short order. One of the more promising signs is that there's been a lot of voter turnout in the primaries- I think we're in for a sea change in politics- and it's long overdue.

So that's my bets for the coming year....and oh yeah- a democrat is taking the White House. Heck, even Shatner on Boston Legal called Hillary a hot dominatrix....

Sam

(in reply to subfever)

Post #: 38

RE: Global Market Meltdown? Make Your Year-End Predicti... - 1/23/2008 8:04:46 AM

Owner59

Posts: 17033
Joined: 3/14/2006
From: Dirty Jersey
Status: offline

Year-end prediction:

The rich get richer.The poor get poorer,and more middle class people join them.More and more people will lose their home(my neighbors just lost theirs).Rich people buy more 2nd homes and investment/rental homes.

Bush leaves office pretending to be successful,while his horde of sheeple idiots ,repeat those talking points.

The economy does`nt pick up steam and recover, till '09'.Bush and the neo-cons claim credit for the improving economy,using that stupid myth about delayed results.Thinking they have been vindicated,they start calling for more tax cuts for millionares.
But like weeds along the roadside,no one pays much attention,people are to busy at their 2nd jobs.

(in reply to samboct)

Post #: 39

RE: Global Market Meltdown? Make Your Year-End Predicti... - 1/23/2008 8:35:58 AM

SugarMyChurro

Posts: 1912
Joined: 4/26/2007
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Owner59
The economy does'nt pick up steam and recover, till '09'.Bush and the neo-cons claim credit for the improving economy,using that stupid myth about delayed results.

Actually, I don't think that's a myth. In fact, if anything I think the delay is going to be much longer. But in a debt based economy there's a million ways to hide what's really going on. UR mentioned banks being insolvent - what pray tell was the source of their original wealth? Our debt based economy is predicated on a debt based monetary system. There's precious little real wealth except real estate, commodities, and the promise to pay (labor).

I agree that Bush and his gang have done nothing but loot this country. They have done zero to improve our situation in any lasting way while simultaneously having done much to make our situation quite a bit worse. They are just there to play at smoke and mirrors while other hands steal the nation's wealth. It's all sleight of hand.

(in reply to Owner59)

Post #: 40

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