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RE: Global Market Meltdown? Make Your Year-End Predicti... - 1/23/2008 10:01:43 AM

Owner59

Posts: 17033
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From: Dirty Jersey
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quote:

ORIGINAL: SugarMyChurro

quote:

ORIGINAL: Owner59
The economy does'nt pick up steam and recover, till '09'.Bush and the neo-cons claim credit for the improving economy,using that stupid myth about delayed results.

Actually, I don't think that's a myth. In fact, if anything I think the delay is going to be much longer.

Probably true,but we`ll still hear neo-cons claiming credit for the up-turn,if there is one.

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Post #: 41

RE: Global Market Meltdown? Make Your Year-End Predicti... - 1/23/2008 11:12:05 AM

popeye1250

Posts: 18104
Joined: 1/27/2006
From: New Hampshire
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quote:

ORIGINAL: subfever

quote:

ORIGINAL: popeye1250

Dow 9300.00
S&P 8300.00

Oh shit I certainly did!
S&P 830.00

Popeye, you almost certainly made a typo there. Care to review and change your entry?

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Post #: 42

RE: Global Market Meltdown? Make Your Year-End Predicti... - 1/23/2008 1:41:59 PM

master69dragon

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Hold on tight. we're on the roller coaster. Will the FED's and Government bandaids hold is the question. Odds are they will not.

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Post #: 43

RE: Global Market Meltdown? Make Your Year-End Predicti... - 1/23/2008 10:19:04 PM

subfever

Posts: 2895
Joined: 5/22/2004
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And what a roller-coaster ride it was today! ...

Popeye, do you still feel confident with your 830.0? So far, you have posted the gloomiest prediction.

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Post #: 44

RE: Global Market Meltdown? Make Your Year-End Predicti... - 1/24/2008 1:16:50 AM

UtopianRanger

Posts: 3251
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quote:

Here's a good reason why:

http://www.tarpley.net/29crash.htm

That is far-n-way the finest primer on the 1929 crash /Depression I have ever read. Wouldn't matter what country you were from.....anyone wanting to familiarize themselves with the global economic crisis for that time period should make this piece their first read.

Thanks for posting it.

quote:

Believe in global warming or not- there's increasing amounts of market demand for alternatives to fossil fuels, and "green" construction is taking off rapidly. Most of the companies that will benefit are in the Nasdaq or privately held. And to UR's comment about nanotech- Nanosolar may count as nanotechnology's most visible hit to date. Hence, money is going to run to the Nasdaq. It would be more successful if VC firms manage to figure a few things out (like in order to have a wildly profitable company, it helps to be in business in 5 years.) but that would require brains and an honest desire to make money, rather than have a massive ego.

Oh....I wholeheartedly agree with you that when we do come outa this thing, the smart money will move to indexes like the Nasdaq; which is heavily laden in science and technology.

As I mentioned in another post a while back : America needs to abandon the mentality of Zeus, and move back to its role as Prometheus. Stepping away from the desire for conquest and control, is paramount...Pushing the frontier in science and technology is what we've always done best. And it will be what leads us back to greatness.

Out of the nihilistic world of three-dollar per gallon gas may just come something the oligarchy never wanted or expected....

quote:

As Krugman pointed out- debunking the Reagan myth is important and still doesn't seem to be happening. GWB has applied Reaganomics with tax breaks for the wealthy and combined it with a very expensive war that he's made no attempt to pay for. In short he's been trying to bankrupt the country, and he's done a damn good job. We're either going to pull out of this tailspin, or we're going to become a third world country in short order. One of the more promising signs is that there's been a lot of voter turnout in the primaries- I think we're in for a sea change in politics- and it's long overdue.

HAR!

As one guy said on the radio the other night : '' Give me a five-trillion dollar credit card and I'll show you a good economy too!! ''

quote:

And what a roller-coaster ride it was today! ...

Popeye, do you still feel confident with your 830.0? So far, you have posted the gloomiest prediction.

Has anyone read about the bail-out plans /stimulus package?

From Bush to Huckabee to Obama to Hiliary - They all have one thing in common: They're all themed with more debt. Nothing much about curtailing spending or putting people back to work retooling our decaying infrastructure ---Just more debt.

- R

< Message edited by UtopianRanger -- 1/24/2008 1:18:17 AM >

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Post #: 45

RE: Global Market Meltdown? Make Your Year-End Predicti... - 1/24/2008 6:03:05 AM

samboct

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Joined: 1/17/2007
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R

We may be screwed. Typically the way out of a depression (never understood the difference between depression and recession) is that gov't spending "primes the economic pump" and then the rest of the economy takes off. This was why Herbert Hoover's continued "belt tightening" just drove the US economy further into a slump- and why Adolf Hitler's military buildup brought Germany out of the depression (and looting Jews for their wealth didn't hurt) in a hurry. The US gov't is the largest customer on the planet, and all the caterwauling of the neocons isn't going to change that too soon- although China may be getting larger- and is one corrupt corporation to do business with.

Hence, the typical way out of a depression is more spending- which on a gov't basis can only be financed with debt- and with China holding a lot of our paper- we may not be able to borrow more money which we now need. Consequently- we're screwed. Putting people back to work will entail taking on more debt- at least in the short term- but I wholeheartedly agree that there are lots of things to do- from repairing our infrastructure to building new energy plants that don't use fossil fuels- to additional sources of clean water (probably desalination). It's going to be a tightrope- and the war in Iraq certainly isn't helping.

One thing we can say about the neocons- they were very up front with what they wanted to do. Their cry that gov't has gotten too big so we have to bankrupt the beast- well, we're looking at it. But like Iraq- the question becomes- Now what?

Sam

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Post #: 46

RE: Global Market Meltdown? Make Your Year-End Predicti... - 1/24/2008 3:16:58 PM

subfever

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quote:

ORIGINAL: UtopianRanger

quote:

Here's a good reason why:

http://www.tarpley.net/29crash.htm

That is far-n-way the finest primer on the 1929 crash /Depression I have ever read.

- R

I thought so too. Glad you enjoyed it!

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Post #: 47

RE: Global Market Meltdown? Make Your Year-End Predicti... - 1/24/2008 7:41:35 PM

samboct

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Having skimmed some of the Tarpley article- the only problem I have with it is that I think it's mostly wrong.

1) The war reparations that Germany was asked to pay at Versailles were no more onerous than the agreement between the Russians and Germans negotiated at Brest-Litovsk.
2) the article does get it right in that a good chunk of the war reparations were from money borrowed from the US.
3) A wonderful example is the Los Angeles- a Zeppelin built by Zeppelin-Goodyear, a good chunk of which was from loans from the US to keep the company solvent to build the airship which was then "given" to the US Navy.
4) If these English bankers were so brilliant- why was England broke at the start of WWII? Roosevelt had to do the lend lease program because the English didn't have enough gold to actually BUY the 50 lousy destroyers. See Blood Tears and Folly- Len Deighton for what I suspect is a far more accurate economic picture about the origins of WWII.
5) The US was the largest trading partner of the UK. By plunging the US into a depression, they shot themselves in the foot.

Sam

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Post #: 48

RE: Global Market Meltdown? Make Your Year-End Predicti... - 1/7/2009 6:11:39 AM

subfever

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Joined: 5/22/2004
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Well... I came back here thinking that Ranger had won it... but the winner is Popeye!

Congrats to his 830 prediction, which proved to be closer than anyone else's.

Sympathies to those who gave buy signals, especially if they followed their own advice!

Popeye wins the honor of posting a new thread for the 2009 predictions...