Predicting November Results (Full Version)

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Mercnbeth -> Predicting November Results (2/25/2008 9:03:08 AM)

As of today - here's how I see it.

Senator Obama wins the Democratic nomination, Senator McCain wins the Republican nod. Prepare to start saying President McCain. All he has to do is say nothing, loss the two live debates without saying something totally stupid and use Senator Clinton's currently running campaign advertisements. It will be the largest landslide since Nixon v. McGovern. The only States that may go Democratic would be NY and CA and they would not be sure things either. Outside 50 miles of ground zero NYC, you can't tell a NY State voter from a Kansas voter. There's a LOT of old school conservatives upstate. CA should be strong for Senator Obama, but the immigration issue may sway many votes to McCain, illegals vote early and often and Obama doesn't have an amnesty bill with his name on it to sell.

Congress will still go Democratic. The 'pork' has been heavier than ever since the entitlement party has been in power. They do work hard for us don't they? I follow Bills quite closely and I sent Speaker Pelosi congratulations for getting that difficult 'Quilting' appropriations bill passed last week! My goodness don't you feel better for all those unrecognized hard working quilters out there? The Senate will also stay status quo, with no clear majority on either side.  

All this insures one thing - another Corporate Sweep.

The closer thing to pay attention to is McCain's choice for VP. If he wanted to insure his victory he'd pick someone of integrity such as Colin Powell or Condaleeza Rice or... Ummmm realizing that I chose two people of color one female, one male, and wanting to not appear prejudicial wanted to make the third be a white male politician; however I couldn't think of one who I believed represented integrity. Maybe someone else can help out and fill in that ...?

Senator Obama's three years in the county prior to an uncompleted term in the State Senate, followed by an incomplete term in the US Senate will not hold up in the general election. Ralph Nader coming into the picture will further erode this base of people who just want to vote for the 'Contraian' party.

No uber insight implied. Not yet sure who I'm voting against yet. I just want to be on record. I forgot to do something similar when I was telling all my friends that the NY Giants would be Super-bowl Champs.



GoddessDustyGold -> RE: Predicting November Results (2/25/2008 10:24:09 AM)

That's an interesting take, Merc!
Admittedly, I haven't been keeping up in the last week due to an extremely busy schedule and a rotten cold I have been nursing in between.  So at this moment, and without checking the latest stats, I am still not completely convinced that Hillary is out of the picture.  Methinks there are still some dirty tricks yet to be played. 
Now I have been of the mind that McCain could beat Hillary hands down in the general election, but I felt that Obama would win if he gets the nod from the Dems.  I bow to your greater expertise, and I think this is going to be a very interesting year!
That said, I agree that any of these candidates just puts us in the position of "more of the same and worse", so I will not be voting against anybody.  I am done with that game.  I have someone to vote for, however, even though I know it won't count with anybody except Myself in the long run...My conscience will be clear and I will sit back and take the punches as they come.  And they will come!
There ya have it!



Owner59 -> RE: Predicting November Results (2/25/2008 11:58:50 AM)

Hi Merc,

Something to consider.

Until Hawaii`s last primary,the most people to ever participate in a democratic primary there, was 4000.

This last primary,37,000 people showed up to vote.Granted Mr. Obama is from there,but that is a huge increase in active voters and a harbinger of what Nov.2 will bring.

Though not quite as dramatic,almost every other caucus and primary had huge increases in those voting democratic.I didn`t see any storys about more republicans voting now, then in the past.It`s not good news for republicans.

I disagree,Bush has pre-delivered the election to the democrats.



Mercnbeth -> RE: Predicting November Results (2/25/2008 12:26:04 PM)

quote:

I disagree, Bush has pre-delivered the election to the democrats.


Owner,
I once thought so too but, as I said then, when both Houses of Congress ended up having Democrats in the majority it too a major attack point away from the 2008 election. Which Presidential candidate will have a better opportunity to use Congress as a talking point in his/her (giving the possibility for Senator Clinton) campaign?

In 2006 people voted to change the status quo. They expected aggressive change. Some even expected to put withdrawing from Iraq to a vote or at the very least set a withdraw date as part of any Iraq spending bill. The majority party in Congress had the ability to do that. Any Presidential veto would further serve their cause and a Democrat in the White House would have been a forgone conclusion.

Instead we got Rodger Clemens, steroid use by millionaires playing baseball, and Bill #209 passed to establish a "National Quilt Museum". I remember hearing "Bush Lied - People Died"; how about an update - "Congress Quilted - Soldiers Wilted"?

You forget how much power, aka money, is involved here. McCain is the ideal candidate for maintaining the current status quo serving the biggest and wealthiest PAC's. Military contractors and those needing an ongoing cheap labor pool put him over the top. 

And lets not short change the conspiracy theorists. If need be, all it would take would be a terrorist act where civilians are killed and another US monument blown up and this picture of Senator Obama http://www.drudgereport.com/flashoa.htm will run on every FOX newscast. You don't have to do much to scare the majority of people who will vote next November. Most are already scared. Most are VERY naive to the realities of 21st century Corporate polities. The political atmosphere better resembles the original 'Rollerball' script than the standard comparison to Orwell's '1984'.

Owner, I think you know I'm not happy about my prediction. How about a 'friendly wager' about the political party wining the white house - loser has to join and send $100 in the name of the winner to the political party or charity of the winner's choice?



angelikaJ -> RE: Predicting November Results (2/25/2008 12:58:04 PM)

You think MA will go Republican....?

There are other states that will vote Dem besides NY and CA.

This is going to be an election decided by the independent/undeclared voters.




pahunkboy -> RE: Predicting November Results (2/25/2008 1:02:46 PM)

you know how i feel about corporate influnce. im soom going to declare myself a corporation and do a charter.   i then would own judges and lawmakers.

they would do my will.l



Muttling -> RE: Predicting November Results (2/25/2008 1:05:04 PM)

The only way I can see McCain loosing is over the nation's desire to pull out of Iraq.

The Republicans will definitely pull a major get out of the vote as they always do and the only thing more galvanizing than a Clinton candidate will be an Obama candidate.  

The issue of religion will come up at some point, most likely raised by a PAC or other non-affiliated group.   Obama is a Muslim and that issue really hasn't been pulled to the surface yet.   I think a lot of voters will take issue with that (regardless of whether it's right or wrong.)

Finally, there will be performance in head to head debates on the issues.  Pre-nomination the debates are more about character crap with less details on issues as you don't want to tip your hand too early and give your opponents time to develop well thought out counter strategies along with the opportunity to test them out.   I expect McCain to slaughter Obama when it comes time for the real debates.


On a side note, I've already got bets with two friends as to who is going to win the election.  They believe that Obama's charisma will carry him through.



dcnovice -> RE: Predicting November Results (2/25/2008 1:06:47 PM)

quote:

Obama is a Muslim and that issue really hasn't been pulled to the surface yet.


You sure about that, Muttling? I thought he was a Christian.



Mercnbeth -> RE: Predicting November Results (2/25/2008 1:44:18 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: dcnovice

quote:

Obama is a Muslim and that issue really hasn't been pulled to the surface yet.


You sure about that, Muttling? I thought he was a Christian.

Senator Obama is a Christian.
This comes from the link I posted for the picture:
quote:

In December, the campaign asked one of its volunteer county coordinators in Iowa to step down after the person forwarded an e-mail falsely stating that Barack Obama is a Muslim.

Obama campaign manager David Plouffe quickly accused the Clinton campaign Monday of 'shameful offensive fear-mongering' for circulating the snap.

Not that his Christian roots will play all that well in Peoria either. From the website of Senator Obama's Church:
quote:

We are a congregation which is Unashamedly Black and Unapologetically Christian... Our roots in the Black religious experience and tradition are deep, lasting and permanent. We are an African people, and remain "true to our native land," the mother continent, the cradle of civilization. God has superintended our pilgrimage through the days of slavery, the days of segregation, and the long night of racism. http://www.tucc.org/about.htm 


I don't see a need for shame, and obviously no "apology"should be necessary to be faithful. Not being religious (Thank God!) I don't pretend to understand how race and continent of origin ranks as primary importance to be in the first sentence of the first paragraph of a Church website. And, at the personal risk of withstanding the accusations of being 'racist'... What if the word black were replaced by white, the Africa replaced by a Euro-Centric position, and Senator McCain was an active member of the Church. Would it be an issued raised in the general election? Would Senator McCain be a legitimate candidate to represent his party?

Owner, going back to your post about Hawaii; I wouldn't doubt that since Senator McCain's nomination was already assured the polling numbers indicate a large Republican turn out to vote for Senator Obama. However, that would imply further conspiracy theory.

Edited to add:
quote:

You think MA will go Republican....?

angelika,
It wouldn't be outside the realm of possibility. Remember the issue of Boston 'Busing'? As 'Liberal' as they represent themselves to be the voting booth is private, where personal prejudices can be kept behind the curtain.

I've never lived there, but had to work there. I've also had to deal with my employees being subjected to racial prejudice there. My general manager, who happened to be black, couldn't get a cab coming out of the Garden! Granted it occurred long ago, but I doubt it is gone completely. Besides - Senator McCain was co-sponsor of a Senate Bill with Senator Kennedy. I'm sure Senator Kennedy won't endorse McCain, but that will serve to rationalize a McCain vote in many cases in Massachusetts. Enough to win? Perhaps not, but enough to make it debatable.

I'll tell you what - I wouldn't believe any exit poll done in Boston's general election showing overwhelming Senator Obama support.



DomKen -> RE: Predicting November Results (2/25/2008 2:06:35 PM)

This is funny. IL won't vote for Obama? 1.3 million of us voted for him a few weeks ago. Clinton got almost precisely half as many votes as Obama and still out polled McCain by 50%. Obama will handily win all the major urban centers and every state where that matters in the outcome. McCain will win in the mountain west and might split the south but It won't be the big southern states like Florida and Georgia, Obama got more than double McCains vote in GA too.



SugarMyChurro -> RE: Predicting November Results (2/25/2008 2:23:30 PM)

When the chickens come home to roost, it should be on a Rethugs watch.



mnottertail -> RE: Predicting November Results (2/25/2008 2:27:04 PM)

Chickens will not be allowed to vote in this election cycle as they have been allowed, in times past. 

Florida Attorney General



ottRopesandKnots -> RE: Predicting November Results (2/25/2008 2:38:25 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Owner59
I disagree,Bush has pre-delivered the election to the democrats.


Yeah, that's what I thought last election...

The democrats have done a huge disservice to themselves with their attacks against one another during the primaries.  I don't understand why their party lets them behave this way.  They would do much better to champion themselves, not bash one another.

I *hope* the democrats win (and I'd love to see the dems bring on Ralph Nader as a trusted advisor for those issues on which he has a strong grasp).  I don't think it's a slam dunk win though.



pahunkboy -> RE: Predicting November Results (2/25/2008 2:53:40 PM)

factor in the stunning  buying power of the dollar.

hmm.   laws such as gravity cant be changed.  so the question is how does the war-machine get funded?



OrionTheWolf -> RE: Predicting November Results (2/25/2008 3:19:07 PM)

Educate yourself Man. http://www.snopes.com/politics/obama/muslim.asp

The Clinton's are playing on this ignorance http://news.yahoo.com/s/thenation/20080225/cm_thenation/45290136

The more I live the more I am still surprised by people who will believe anything.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Muttling

The issue of religion will come up at some point, most likely raised by a PAC or other non-affiliated group.   Obama is a Muslim and that issue really hasn't been pulled to the surface yet.   I think a lot of voters will take issue with that (regardless of whether it's right or wrong.)



angelikaJ -> RE: Predicting November Results (2/25/2008 5:24:14 PM)



Edited to add:
quote:

You think MA will go Republican....?

angelika,
It wouldn't be outside the realm of possibility. Remember the issue of Boston 'Busing'? As 'Liberal' as they represent themselves to be the voting booth is private, where personal prejudices can be kept behind the curtain.

I've never lived there, but had to work there. I've also had to deal with my employees being subjected to racial prejudice there. My general manager, who happened to be black, couldn't get a cab coming out of the Garden! Granted it occurred long ago, but I doubt it is gone completely. Besides - Senator McCain was co-sponsor of a Senate Bill with Senator Kennedy. I'm sure Senator Kennedy won't endorse McCain, but that will serve to rationalize a McCain vote in many cases in Massachusetts. Enough to win? Perhaps not, but enough to make it debatable.

I'll tell you what - I wouldn't believe any exit poll done in Boston's general election showing overwhelming Senator Obama support.


Kennedy has already endorsed Obama, so has Kerry.

http://www.boston.com/news/politics/2008/primaries/mass_primary_dem_results_by_town/

http://www.boston.com/news/politics/2008/primaries/mass_primary_gop_results_by_town/

That is all the proof I need.



TheHeretic -> RE: Predicting November Results (2/25/2008 8:15:18 PM)

        I'm not ready to call this one yet, Merc.  There are still too many variables.  Without Hillary to run against, McCain can't attract the fundy wing.  Rather than going for the Colin Powell option, he might very well have to take Huckabee.  That's going to chase away independents.  The fundies are also very capable of sending in a spoiler on the right.

       The funniest unanswered question is "how much class does Hillary have?"  Probably needless to say, my expectations are pretty low.  If she has a lot more than I think, she could ensure a Dem victory in November.  A graceful toss on 3/4, a teary hug for the cameras, let his camp pull it way down.

       Obama has to build some national security points.  He's made some bad comments he'll need to overcome without an obvious flip-flop.  She could give him an early start on that.



domiguy -> RE: Predicting November Results (2/25/2008 8:21:56 PM)

Obama will win handily. There will be some attacks. They will try to "swift boat" him. I don't think it will work...The nation is pissed. McCain does represent business as usual....Obama is going to win...Even though he is a muslim...Isn't it great to live in this Country, or what...Where else could a Muslim be elected the Leader of the free World?....Soooo Fucking Funny!!!



Muttling -> RE: Predicting November Results (2/25/2008 9:41:13 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: domiguy

Obama will win handily. There will be some attacks. They will try to "swift boat" him. I don't think it will work...The nation is pissed. McCain does represent business as usual....Obama is going to win...Even though he is a muslim...Isn't it great to live in this Country, or what...Where else could a Muslim be elected the Leader of the free World?....Soooo Fucking Funny!!!



In reverence to a couple of posters who corrected me and in great thanks to the one who referenced one of my favorite web sites in doing so (e.g. Snopes.com),   he is not muslim.


That said, I still think McCain will defeat him.   (Of course, I have been a McCain fan for a great many years and have a rather biased opinion.)



subfever -> RE: Predicting November Results (2/25/2008 10:43:02 PM)

http://linesmaker.com/live_odds/us_president_election_odds.htm



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