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faerytattoodgirl -> according to... (3/9/2008 11:26:01 AM)

security alarm sellers... ADT... they say there's a burglary in progress every 15 seconds in the usa...

WTF???? that cant be true.... i doubt that many houses are being robbed.



MissMorrigan -> RE: according to... (3/9/2008 11:35:37 AM)

Hi FTG, I found this link:

http://www.securityworldnews.com/articles/5015/1/7-Most-Popular-Items-Taken-During-A-Burglary/Page1.html 

So that's likely where they got those stats from.



CuriousLord -> RE: according to... (3/9/2008 11:39:02 AM)

Let's see.  Let's make a rough estimate of the US's population as being 400 million.  (Could Wiki a more accurate number, but it'd be wasted.)

Next, let's estimate there's at least one house/apartment/etc. for every eight people.  That'll be 4*10^8/8 = 5*10^7 (50 mil).

Then if we say there's a break in every 15 seconds, though means four houses are robbed per minute.  4*60 = 240 per hour.  240*24 = 4800 + 960 = 5760 per day.

So now we'll say that a random house's chance of being robbed on a particular day is [number of houses robbed per day] divided by [total number of houses] = 5760 / 50 mil =   ..erm, need my calc.. about 0.01152% chance.

That means the chance of a random home being robbed at least once over the course of 50 years is about [1- (1 - 0.0001152)^(50*365.25)]= ~87.8%.  (Note:  This number's assuming no house will be robbed more than once per day.  The chance goes down if this assumption isn't made.)

If one assumes no house is robbed more than once per year, the chance of a random house getting robbed in a year is about 4.2%  (0.0001152 * 365.25).

Are these numbers plausible?  I don't know.  But if they are, and if my assumptions are plausible, then it stands to reason that the company's claims are also plausible.  If the results aren't plausible, but my claims are, the company's claims may have to be taken with a bit more salt and more consideration.

In short:
Is it plausible to believe that a house has a 4.2% chance of getting robbed over the course of a year and an 87.8% chance of getting robbed in fifty years?


Edit:  Bold added.



slaveboyforyou -> RE: according to... (3/9/2008 11:40:56 AM)

I think it is true, but you have to remember that a burglary is a term with a broad definition under the law.  I think a lot of us think of burglars as those gus in movies dressed in black sneaking up the wall into a nice home and stealing jewels.  Of course, that is a burglary.  But if I pry open your shed and steal your hedge clippers, that's a burglary too.  If I see your DVD player through the window; and I break the window and snatch it, that's a burglary.  Most burglaries are crimes of opportunity.  Your average burglar is someone that sees his chance to steal something quickly, and he takes advantage of it.  Most of them are not planned crimes. 



faerytattoodgirl -> RE: according to... (3/9/2008 11:45:02 AM)

nerd..



CuriousLord -> RE: according to... (3/9/2008 11:46:00 AM)

You have no idea.



faerytattoodgirl -> RE: according to... (3/9/2008 11:46:46 AM)

well i thought you were just a geek with your anime avatar...but now i know your a nerd....



CuriousLord -> RE: according to... (3/9/2008 11:50:00 AM)

I literally spend my life studying and conducting equations rather than going out and having fun.  This board is the one bit of fun I allow myself.  And even now, I'm doing Chem reports for extra credit, despite the fact it's my spring break.

Yeah, I am a nerd.  (More out of conviction than desire, though.)  Edit:  Not that I don't enjoy it.  I think I'd rip my own hair out from boredom if I couldn't learn more about the world.



PanthersMom -> RE: according to... (3/9/2008 12:19:14 PM)

in my neighborhood alone there have been three break ins in the last year all three on the same block.  the house next door to mine was broken into while i was home all day with my kids and dogs in and out of the house, they just snuck in on the other side.  things have been stolen from my garage.  i walked out of my huose two years ago and caught two boys climbing my neighbor's gas meter to reach her kitchen windows to break in.  yeah, it happens, maybe not that often every day everywhere, but it's not that uncommon.
PM



ominousdominus -> RE: according to... (3/9/2008 12:31:54 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: CuriousLord

Let's see.  Let's make a rough estimate of the US's population as being 400 million.  (Could Wiki a more accurate number, but it'd be wasted.)

Next, let's estimate there's at least one house/apartment/etc. for every eight people.  That'll be 4*10^8/8 = 5*10^7 (50 mil).

Then if we say there's a break in every 15 seconds, though means four houses are robbed per minute.  4*60 = 240 per hour.  240*24 = 4800 + 960 = 5760 per day.

So now we'll say that a random house's chance of being robbed on a particular day is [number of houses robbed per day] divided by [total number of houses] = 5760 / 50 mil =   ..erm, need my calc.. about 0.01152% chance.

That means the chance of a random home being robbed at least once over the course of 50 years is about [1- (1 - 0.0001152)^(50*365.25)]= ~87.8%.  (Note:  This number's assuming no house will be robbed more than once per day.  The chance goes down if this assumption isn't made.)

If one assumes no house is robbed more than once per year, the chance of a random house getting robbed in a year is about 4.2%  (0.0001152 * 365.25).

Are these numbers plausible?  I don't know.  But if they are, and if my assumptions are plausible, then it stands to reason that the company's claims are also plausible.  If the results aren't plausible, but my claims are, the company's claims may have to be taken with a bit more salt and more consideration.

In short:
Is it plausible to believe that a house has a 4.2% chance of getting robbed over the course of a year and an 87.8% chance of getting robbed in fifty years?


Edit:  Bold added.

WOW,
 ok, do a favor for me? Please redo your calculations factoring in these "what ifs"-
1 -Let's say I own a 600 pound tiger and he sleeps in my living room.(Bengal, bitches!)
2-My yard is mined with "bouncing betty" anti-personel devices(circa 1968, got em on ebay!)lol
3-I never sleep, EVER
4-I own nothing but a tv tray and a barca lounger(the tiger has fucked-up everything else)
5-part my hair on the left(MY left)
6-I am a sagitarius
7-My Mother's maiden name was smith
8-I dig the band ABBA as well as Slipknot
9-I live 7.3 mile outside the city limits
10-Lastly, and most importantly I have a lucky horseshoe over my door.
OK, SO, factoring these in............ what are my chances?



CuriousLord -> RE: according to... (3/9/2008 12:57:01 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: ominousdominus

1 -Let's say I own a 600 pound tiger and he sleeps in my living room.(Bengal, bitches!)


Okay, if you do this, then the chances of being robbed, ever, is one divided by the world's population, so about 0.00000000125%.  (Because there's only one person out there stupid enough to try to rob you.)

quote:

2-My yard is mined with "bouncing betty" anti-personel devices(circa 1968, got em on ebay!)lol


Assuming about 0.04% of the population is truly suicidal and that 75% of those think it'll be cool to die that way, I'd say about 0.0004 * 0.75 = 0.03% of the population will try to rob you, so about 240,000 robbers per year.  While none will actually steal anything, you'll:
-Nearly go broke matiencing your "bouncing betty"'s.
-Make a fortune off the spare parts in the bodies.

quote:

3-I never sleep, EVER


0%, based off empiracle observation; I never sleep, and I've never been robbed.  Error margin of about +/- 0.6% here.

quote:

4-I own nothing but a tv tray and a barca lounger(the tiger has fucked-up everything else)


0%.  (Because this implies that the one guy who would've stolen from you has already been fucked-up by the tiger.)

quote:

5-part my hair on the left(MY left)


Almost certain to be robbed!  But not by people.  Hair lice!  You see, most people part on their right, but half of lice like it parted either way.  So, supply and demand, hair parted on the left is invaluable to them.  And there's tons of them out there.  So 1-[1-(0.5 * [number of lice])^[number of lice]) approaches 1, so it's a done deal!

quote:

6-I am a sagitarius


Same as the normal chance to be robbed (4.2% per year), only +20% from robbers who are also World of Warcraft lore fans (so 4.3% per year).

quote:

7-My Mother's maiden name was smith


4.2% chance per year of robbery attempts, but 0% chance of any of them actually working.  You see, your maternal grandfather is an elite FBI agent and will "take care of" anyone who goes into your house, which is secretly bugged by every secret organization out there.

quote:

8-I dig the band ABBA as well as Slipknot


Depends on how loud you play the music!

quote:

9-I live 7.3 mile outside the city limits


Assuming that most robberies happen by people who live nearby (~80%), and that the area you live in probably has about a fifth the average population density for populated areas, 4.2%*(1-0.8+0.8/5)= ~1.512% chance per year.

quote:

10-Lastly, and most importantly I have a lucky horseshoe over my door.


4.2% - 0.00001% = 4.19999% chance.  (Because it's the same as normal, only some idiot's going to slam your door too hard while trying to rob you and the horse shoe's going to knock him out.)



ominousdominus -> RE: according to... (3/9/2008 1:15:10 PM)

I am going to rest easy(as soon as I shampoo with a strong lice killer), I appreciate you factoring this for me, although to speak out loud about my grandfather..............*sucks air in through teeth* not the best idea.



CuriousLord -> RE: according to... (3/9/2008 1:22:01 PM)

Ah, I'm sorry for that one then!

More evidence that I need to go to sleep, but I had a wacky idea.  I need to get a wallet with lots of fake dollar bills just barely sliding out of it, super glued together, for a front table by my front door.  Then have something- like a lucky horseshoe- be connected by a series of pulleys and fall on the person who tries to steal it.

At least now I know what those people were thinking when they made anvils fall on the poor critters in Saturday morning cartoons!



Termyn8or -> RE: according to... (3/9/2008 2:10:03 PM)

CL, I was stasrting to doubt your geniusisity, but I would never call you stupid or anything like that. You have however restored my faith.

Note the lack of commas in the last sentence:-).

T



ominousdominus -> RE: according to... (3/9/2008 2:14:01 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: CuriousLord

Ah, I'm sorry for that one then!

More evidence that I need to go to sleep, but I had a wacky idea.  I need to get a wallet with lots of fake dollar bills just barely sliding out of it, super glued together, for a front table by my front door.  Then have something- like a lucky horseshoe- be connected by a series of pulleys and fall on the person who tries to steal it.

At least now I know what those people were thinking when they made anvils fall on the poor critters in Saturday morning cartoons!


Yesssss, if only we could work out a contraption to jam a barbed butt-plug into said thief...........going to the drawing board on that one.



pahunkboy -> RE: according to... (3/9/2008 3:48:34 PM)

the alarm company profits from peoples fears.   often the burglar type works in this field.   so- if i had stuff worth stealing then i would not call 'them".

line it up this way-which 3 houses on your block are the easiest to rob?


aften the perp will move on to the easiest target.

one riddle is- does a clean house better for robbing?     





soul2share -> RE: according to... (3/10/2008 10:38:06 AM)

CL.....dayum!!!!  My eyeballs are spinning in my head!

Gotta agree w/faery.....you're a nerd big time...but in a good way.  This is coming from one who has to use a calculator for anything not in the class of 2 + 2! 



sub4hire -> RE: according to... (3/12/2008 12:44:02 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: pahunkboy

the alarm company profits from peoples fears.   often the burglar type works in this field.   so- if i had stuff worth stealing then i would not call 'them".

line it up this way-which 3 houses on your block are the easiest to rob?


the United States profits on peoples fears.  Why should the alarm company do business any other way?
I have items worth stealing but I can protect them myself.  If for any reason I am not home when someone tried, it is my own stupidity.  Not like I haven't hunted a theif down before.  One thing I have learned in my year's on this planet is, you watch out for yourself.  Don't expect someone else to do it for you because you won't be happy with the justice you get.





freyjasdottir -> RE: according to... (3/12/2008 12:53:38 PM)

They said attempt, do those attempt count as people driving/walking past and looking in or around to see if you have anything worth stealing or if your house is easy to break into?  I had someone attempt to walk into my home once, the attempt was stopped as soon as he heard my monster sized border collie begin to growl and came running for said door.  That was officially a robbery attempt but nothing happened.  ADT may count things like that in their numbers as the guy was going door to door turning handles hoping to find an open and empty house. If he hit all the houses on my block did that count as 14 attempts in just a few minutes?



MusicalBoredom -> RE: according to... (3/12/2008 1:54:49 PM)

2006 US Household estimates from US Census Bureau is 114,384,000. (Average household size is 2.57).

http://www.census.gov/population/socdemo/hh-fam/cps2006/tabA1-all.xls

In the once per year example that would be a 2.18% chance of being robbed (2.18 / 114.38).

However according to the US Dept of Justice, the burglary in 2005 was 0.295%. 
http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/glance/tables/proptrdtab.htm
The DOJ figure is per household as well but I'm not sure of the "household" methodology of either.

This table which is reported to be compiled from UN stats says the US is ranked 7th in per capita (as opposed to per household) burglaries.  Australia being 1st and the UK being 7th.
http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/cri_bur_percap-crime-burglaries-per-capita



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