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Gustav may take aim at New Orleans - 8/27/2008 9:47:25 AM   
cyberdude611


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Status: offline 		Many of these computer models do not look good for New Orleans.

Currently Gustav is just south of Cuba as of Wednesday afternoon. Although only a tropical storm now, forecast path takes the storm dead-on into New Orleans as a Category 3 or 4 hurricane.

I hope the government there learned their lesson after Katrina and are starting to get ready right now just in case. This one could be another monster.
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RE: Gustav may take aim at New Orleans - 8/27/2008 10:34:15 AM   
celticlord2112


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Status: offline 		http://weather.chron.com/auto/chron/tropical/tracking/at200807_model.html
http://weather.chron.com/auto/chron/tropical/at200807.disc.html

As of 1100 EDT, only the GFDL model has a track that puts Gustav on top of New Orleans.

While it is almost certain to hit somewhere on the Gulf Coast, it is too soon to say with any degree of certainty that New Orleans faces imminent threat.

The HWRF model track shows a greater threat for Mississippi and Alabama, while other models have landfall as far west as Houston.

Everyone on the Gulf Coast should keep a weather eye on Gustav, not just New Orleans.


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RE: Gustav may take aim at New Orleans - 8/27/2008 12:06:50 PM   
Steponme73


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Status: offline 		Let's hope it does not go to New Orleans.  Or we will spend another 10 billion dollars with no results!

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RE: Gustav may take aim at New Orleans - 8/27/2008 2:50:32 PM   
bipolarber


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Status: offline 		Deep in the bowels of the White House, G.W. Bush is watching the TV, with reports of Gustav, thinking to himself: "Man, I wish I could go out and get drunk again, like I did in my college days... I'll be so glad when this President job thing is over, and I can get back to some serious parting! What's that on the TV? A Storm? Well, I have "help" to deal with that stuff... like Brownie... Whatever happened to Brownie, anyways? Uncle Dick said they were taking him to live on a farm somewhere... Well, anyway... maybe once I'm done, I can score some coke again..."

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RE: Gustav may take aim at New Orleans - 8/27/2008 2:56:04 PM   
celticlord2112


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RE: Gustav may take aim at New Orleans - 8/27/2008 3:05:16 PM   
MusicalBoredom


Posts: 620
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From: Louisiana/New York
Status: offline 		We get ready (as we have for a very long) for hurricane as soon as it looks like might be coming.  The stores have already stocked extra canned good, batteries, water, generators, etc.  This weekend if it is still a hurricane and still on track, people will start to tape and board windows windows and fill their tanks with gas.  Most people I know will leave the area if the projection looks like it's on target to where they are.  What happened in New Orleans is what happens when you try to completely evacuate an entire major city.  Most people had left at the first recommendation.  However you can stop a natural disaster from taking it's toll no matter what.  (I don't really want to beat this dead horse anymore.)

If the question is are we (the people on here in the the projected path) going to be ok and we making preparations then the answers are most likely and yes.

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RE: Gustav may take aim at New Orleans - 8/27/2008 3:11:29 PM   
Gwynvyd


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Status: offline 		Thankfuly I still have my unused supplies from the last one. It hit all of Fla. but my section. I got a bad feeling about this one. ugh.

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RE: Gustav may take aim at New Orleans - 8/27/2008 4:12:24 PM   
Level


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Status: offline 		Just watched the Weather Channel, and it does indeed look like New Orleans/mid-Louisiana; we're just west from LA, over the Texas border, so while I don't wish it on anyone, I damn sure don't wish it on us.

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RE: Gustav may take aim at New Orleans - 8/27/2008 5:08:24 PM   
Vendaval


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Status: offline 		All you folks on the Gulf Coast and Florida please stay safe and let us know how you are doing when Gustav comes through. 

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RE: Gustav may take aim at New Orleans - 8/27/2008 5:47:42 PM   
christine1


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Status: offline 		too bad we can't have a weather thread without politics being brought into it. 

good luck to all of you that might be in the storms path.

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RE: Gustav may take aim at New Orleans - 8/27/2008 7:26:44 PM   
servantforuse


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Status: offline 		Katrina was Bushes fault, just like everything else. Just ask bipolarber...

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RE: Gustav may take aim at New Orleans - 8/27/2008 7:29:20 PM   
bipolarber


Posts: 2792
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Status: offline 		Had the administration done it's job... if it had responded to the people in need, if the President had appointed someone qualified to head up FEMA instead of a horse show organizer (who had been fired from that job) then we wouldn't need to remember what happened.... don't you agree?

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RE: Gustav may take aim at New Orleans - 8/27/2008 7:31:11 PM   
christine1


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From: i'm headed to HIM...
Status: offline 		yeah, let's not forget about the utter lack of responsibility of the local government acting as first responders, and more importantly, first "preparers".  they should have had better evacuations plans in place and better aftermath plans laid.    the feds can't take care of everything for everyone, at some point the local gov's need to step up and not be crooked weenies like the ones in new orleans were.


< Message edited by christine1 -- 8/27/2008 7:45:10 PM >

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RE: Gustav may take aim at New Orleans - 8/27/2008 7:34:45 PM   
Alumbrado


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Status: offline 		I lived on the Gulf coast for about 8 years, and the Chesapeake Bay for about 20...
Anyone who thinks they know where one of those storms is going to hit is kidding themselves. 


The changes in temperature and pressure with each mile closer to shore make the final landfall and severity a real crap shoot.

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RE: Gustav may take aim at New Orleans - 8/27/2008 7:35:03 PM   
MusicalBoredom


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From: Louisiana/New York
Status: offline 		FYI Louisiana declared a state of emergency and the Guard has been activated with orders to report on Saturday. MS looks to be more in danger than LA at the moment.  I hope it stays a tropical storm.

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RE: Gustav may take aim at New Orleans - 8/27/2008 8:06:11 PM   
sappatoti


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Alumbrado

I lived on the Gulf coast for about 8 years, and the Chesapeake Bay for about 20...
Anyone who thinks they know where one of those storms is going to hit is kidding themselves.


The changes in temperature and pressure with each mile closer to shore make the final landfall and severity a real crap shoot.


Exactly.

2004. Hurricane Charley. Expected to hit the Tampa Bay FL area as a Category 2/3 but instead cuts a sharp right and devastates the Port Charlotte/Punta Gorda area as a Category 4/near Category 5. It remains a hurricane as it passes over the Orlando metro area, finally dropping in strength to a tropical storm as it exits around Daytona Beach.

This storm caught the experts off guard. While the whole west and southwest coast of Florida was under a hurricane warning that day, officials honestly believed that Tampa would be the landfall area. Evacuations were mandated for Tampa Bay while all areas in the warning were voluntary advisories. No one would have expected Charley to act as it did.

As Gwyn pointed out earlier in this discussion, she has a bad feeling about this storm. So do I. Nobody along the Gulf Coast should be feeling comfortable; everyone should have that knot of apprehension in their stomach.

I'm glad Louisiana has issued a state of emergency. I'm glad the governor of that state left the DNC early to return home. I'm sure that a good many of those delegates from there have also followed the governor's lead and returned home to prepare and, if necessary, evacuate. Given that many parts of Florida are still under a state of emergency from Fay, this state is already taking precautions as well. I'm hoping that Texas, Alabama, and Mississippi are also getting ready.

I know I am.

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RE: Gustav may take aim at New Orleans - 8/27/2008 10:26:47 PM   
cyberdude611


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Status: offline 		This storm is a bit easier to predict however because there is really only one major stearing event that will effect it's course. There is a high pressure ridge building over Florida. And the storm will move around this ridge.

The only question is how strong will this ridge be when the storm gets into the gulf. If it is weak, the storm will head towards the Florida panhandle. If it is very strong, it will head towards Texas. But if it is as strong as the computers are predicting, then Louisiana is the target. The GFDL model is the one that is showing a nightmare scenario for New Orleans. It is bringing the storm just west of the city as a category 4 hurricane. Now wind and rain is not the biggest threat to New Orleans. It's the storm surge. These storms are so strong that especially if you are on the east side of it, the circulation pushes water from the gulf into the coastline. Now the water has to go somewhere. There is going to be immense weight and stress put on those leeves. If they bust, it's Katrina all over again.

Some good news however is that some models are now predicting some wind shear in the gulf late this week and that may slow down Gustav's strengthening. But trying to predict the intensity of these storms is even more tricky than predicting its path.

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RE: Gustav may take aim at New Orleans - 8/27/2008 11:11:07 PM   
MamaDomme1


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I grew up on the Mississippi gulf coast and we (my family) were always as prepared as we could be.  We would board up, take the priority things with us, and evacuate.  Every single time.  Yeah, there were many times that we would go up a hundred miles or so for a couple days, the storm would manage to go elsewhere, and we'd go home to unboard the windows and continue with life.  Went thru Camille in '69 and all the smaller ones after her.  Thought she was the biggest and baddest ever.  Then came Katrina.  I boarded and taped my windows, grabbed my supplies & a suitcase, took the medical paperwork for my mother who was on dialysis, and headed north to Memphis to my sister's.  Oh, and my brand new golf clubs so no one would loot them.  They were a priority, I thought.  I finally managed to make it back to where my home USED to be on the first of October that year.  The lines were still long for water, food, and to get our shots.  Spent 2 days trying to salvage what I could, loaded it up, left the rest for the bulldozers.  Haven't been back yet.  Nothing to go back to.  My cousin lived next door to me and sat the storm out the best he could.  He was stuck for 9 days before the very first Red Cross supplies of water and MRE's were dropped.  We weren't just flooded like New Orleans was..... we were completely wiped out.  Completely.  My 500 gallon propane tank still hasn't been found.  I figure it's probably laying in some field in Alabama or something.

Gustav has been knocked down to a Tropical Storm with 45mph winds right now..... but is headed back into the warm gulf waters to gain strength again.  Let's just hope he moves swiftly thru the water and doesn't just sit out there stalling and growing.  None of the coast can handle another big one right now.  Hell, the cleanup of Katrina still isn't finished.  They just finally reopened the Hwy 90 bridge over Biloxi bay.  The population of New Orleans is only 50% of what it was before Katrina--- they people still don't have homes to live in again, in order to return if they wanted to.

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RE: Gustav may take aim at New Orleans - 8/27/2008 11:15:45 PM   
Leatherist


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RE: Gustav may take aim at New Orleans - 8/28/2008 5:32:42 AM   
Irishknight


Posts: 2016
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Status: offline 		What is really happening is that Bush is sitting in his basment playing with his hurricane steering machine again so that he can try to finish the job he failed with Katrina.  I'm sure if we listen hard enough someone at the DNC will make a statement to that effect.
All of you in the threatened areas, please try to keep yourselves safe.  That thought should be first and forenost in everyone's minds rather than the insane political garbage that keeps being spewed forth.  Those who are on their meds want to hear from you again more than we want to blame Bush, McCain or Obama.

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