RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead

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gina0055 -> RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead (9/5/2008 7:54:32 AM)
Getting back to the polls, these numbers have changed quite drastically in the last couple of days. http://www.electoral-vote.com/ Obama 08!

servantforuse -> RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead (9/5/2008 7:55:19 AM)
Opening a huge lead??? The latest Rasmussen poll out just this morning has Obama with 46%, McCain at 45%.. As explained here before a dead heat is not good for the democrats..

gina0055 -> RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead (9/5/2008 8:00:51 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: servantforuse Opening a huge lead??? The latest Rasmussen poll out just this morning has Obama with 46%, McCain at 45%.. As explained here before a dead heat is not good for the democrats.. Ooops, and then there's this: http://www.electoral-vote.com/ Seems like quite a lead to me.

Thadius -> RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead (9/5/2008 8:17:04 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: gina0055 quote: ORIGINAL: servantforuse Opening a huge lead??? The latest Rasmussen poll out just this morning has Obama with 46%, McCain at 45%.. As explained here before a dead heat is not good for the democrats.. Ooops, and then there's this: http://www.electoral-vote.com/ Seems like quite a lead to me. What polls are those numbers based on? http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/ http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html And the first time this election cycle that this has occured... http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/09/04/opinion/polls/main4416798.shtml quote: CBS) The presidential race between Barack Obama and John McCain is now even at 42 percent, according to a new CBS News poll conducted Monday-Wednesday of this week. Twelve percent are undecided according to the poll, and one percent said they wouldn't vote. This is in contrast to a poll conducted last weekend, where the Obama-Biden ticket led McCain-Palin by eight points, 48 percent to 40 percent.

SilverMark -> RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead (9/5/2008 8:34:32 AM)
Gallup still has them remarkably consistant 49% Obama 42% McCain on the daily tracking polls they do. Give it 10 days or so, I am not so sure they traditional bumps for either party is going to exist. Ramussen's has Obama back over McCain48-46 Zogby 47-45 McCain over Obama but still shows Obama higher in the electoral college than either of the other 2. All a bit confusing?????

Thadius -> RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead (9/5/2008 8:47:16 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: SilverMark Gallup still has them remarkably consistant 49% Obama 42% McCain on the daily tracking polls they do. Give it 10 days or so, I am not so sure they traditional bumps for either party is going to exist. Ramussen's has Obama back over McCain48-46 Zogby 47-45 McCain over Obama but still shows Obama higher in the electoral college than either of the other 2. All a bit confusing????? The easiest way to compare this is to look at this one... http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=10 Then look at the lead in Colorado, it's at +0.4 for Obama, as of right now. Not even Clinton carried Colorado in '96. I am pretty sure it is going to flip into the red, now that the conventions are over. That 9 electoral votes swings the outlook of the map quite a bit.

cyberdude611 -> RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead (9/5/2008 8:51:12 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: gina0055 quote: ORIGINAL: servantforuse Opening a huge lead??? The latest Rasmussen poll out just this morning has Obama with 46%, McCain at 45%.. As explained here before a dead heat is not good for the democrats.. Ooops, and then there's this: http://www.electoral-vote.com/ Seems like quite a lead to me. That's a liberal site. They also had Kerry winning in 2004 when.....obviously he didnt.

cyberdude611 -> RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead (9/5/2008 9:03:09 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: SilverMark Gallup still has them remarkably consistant 49% Obama 42% McCain on the daily tracking polls they do. Give it 10 days or so, I am not so sure they traditional bumps for either party is going to exist. Ramussen's has Obama back over McCain48-46 Zogby 47-45 McCain over Obama but still shows Obama higher in the electoral college than either of the other 2. All a bit confusing????? Gallup wont come out until later today. Survey USA and Zogby I believe show a McCain lead. Rasmussen shows a 2 pt Obama lead. And CBS shows a tie. But keep in mind the methodologies are different. Gallup for example polls registered voters while Rasmussen polls likely voters. Typically the polls that show registered voters lean democratic because more people are registered Democrats than registered Republicans. So the numbers skew a bit to the Democrat side even though it may not be accurate. Scott Rasmussen was on TV yesturday and accurate numbers wont really come out until after next Tuesday because daily tracking polls have rolling averages. This means they poll 1,000 people every day and average a 3-day period. So right now, today, only 1/3rd of the respondants in that poll were polled after Palin made her speech and none were polled that heard McCain's speech. So this is why there is a delayed bounce and why we need to wait until Tuesday for the numbers to catch up.

DomKen -> RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead (9/5/2008 10:19:16 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: ShieldWolf Thanks for the link Ken, but the states they put in play, well some of them just likely won't be. I hardly believe that we can't get any closer to an educated guess than to have 139 electoral votes up for grabs. Of course, if one side or the other has a major gaffe then anything is possible. I would recommend the electoral maps over at realclearpolitics.com and the analysis of Jay Cost who is a statistician with uncanny insight into what the polls mean and how to breakdown the battleground states. Yes he is conservative but doesn't let that taint his mathematical analysis. 270towin, like I said up above, aggregates state by state polling data. According to the site primarily Rasmussen, surveyUSA and Quinnipiac College. All very reputable polling organizations. The realclearpolitics maps are functionally the same. A quick glance shows the RCP map giving MN and PA to Obama. Looking over the polling that is based on I disagree with their decision in those cases as the lead is still very close the margin of error of the polls.

Thadius -> RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead (9/5/2008 10:25:27 AM)
Todays Gallup shows another 3 point slide for Obama... This is the first poll to include one night of Palin's speech.

Sanity -> RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead (9/5/2008 10:38:58 AM)
Here's something related to this topic quote: McCain TV Ratings Beat Obama in Preliminary Numbers McCain was speaking during the NFL season opener, too. I wonder what this means, if anything?

ShieldWolf -> RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead (9/5/2008 12:22:07 PM)
I think Obama likely has enough of a lead in those two states to carry them. I don't expect McCain to make up ground there. NC will go for McCain as will MO and FL in the end. CO, VA and NH are just too close to call and with two likely Democratic pickups in the Senate there Obama has something of an argument for coattails.

ShieldWolf -> RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead (9/5/2008 12:28:16 PM)
The most significant thing I saw this morning was the ground McCain made up in OH and MI. Would still be surprised to see Obama lose MI but who knows.

SilverMark -> RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead (9/5/2008 1:08:55 PM)
Love the Real Clear Politics sight...thanks Thadius!

thishereboi -> RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead (9/5/2008 4:02:14 PM)
I'm not fighting for anything, just reading the forums and laughing a lot.

thishereboi -> RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead (9/5/2008 4:05:37 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: gina0055 Getting back to the polls, these numbers have changed quite drastically in the last couple of days. http://www.electoral-vote.com/ Obama 08! Oh yea...the polls...and they are off....... Anyone else think this would be more fun with a soundtrack from a horse race playing in the background?

cyberdude611 -> RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead (9/5/2008 4:12:58 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: ShieldWolf The most significant thing I saw this morning was the ground McCain made up in OH and MI. Would still be surprised to see Obama lose MI but who knows. It's too early to tell... Plus the debates are coming up and that can change things around as well...

Thadius -> RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead (9/6/2008 11:01:03 AM)
Tick tick tick... another 2 points gone in today's Gallup... It is now a statistical tie. Tuesday's numbers are not looking good for Sen. Obama if this trend continues...

Thadius -> RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead (9/6/2008 11:21:11 AM)
Hmmm... RCP hasn't updated with the new Rasmussen data... it also shows a couple more points lost for Obama... it is not a rolling average including only post speech numbers yet (it still includes time from prior to the 2 speeches). Obama has a 1 point lead, which is a statistical tie. [8\|]

PeacefreakinCO -> RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead (9/6/2008 2:12:03 PM)
Bless you MistressNew, I was encouraged by your comment on the presidential pokls, Ma'am. It seems to me, that only, greedy, warmongers, and the very weathy, want McCain to win... the upper class, and some Religious conservatives, who seek a very real "Armegeddon". They all seem to be very narrowminded, Apocalyptic, foecasters of doom !!!

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