Termyn8or
Posts: 18681
Joined: 11/12/2005 Status: offline
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DK, I know what would happen. The interest on this house was 10.2%. There was no loan guarantor. I think that market forces would take care of the problem. Even those who can afford a house would be deterred from spending as much as they did paying a higher interest rate, along with the greater frequency of disqualifications. In other words, if the bank stands a REAL chance of losing the money, they will either disqualify or charge a higher spread between prime and what the buyer pays. The housing bubble would have not inflated as much, or at least not as quickly. Then there is the greed factor. They were getting $400,000 for new houses with stamped sheetmetal wall studs, plywood floor joists and cardboard roofs. Well cardboard is an exagerration but you can't walk on the roof of many newer built houses. Your foot will go through it. I personally know someone who lost almost everything because their new house fell apart, and I don't mean in a hurricane. I know someone else who had a constant contract almost with my friend, because at least perennially he had to go there and reattach a square or two of siding. It was nailed into styrofoam. Every time the wind kicked up to about 40 MPH, my buddy's phone rang. That is money out of their pocket. Luckily they made enough to support this, something that should never have happened in the first place. What would happen if they could just barely afford the payment ? Values drop and they can't refi. If I were a bank I probably would have a specially trained team of loan officers. I would not let the customer report their expenditures, for a couple of reasons. I would calculate their real expenditures and calculate the income/debt ratio. Got how many kids, how old, pregnant, ok that's diapers for 2½ years, fifteen per bag, three changes a day, and so forth. The water bill and everything is more precise. Figure on taxes and insurance increasing by around 15% over the life of the loan. If the P/E ratio is not quite as good as it should be, the downstroke is higher. Bankers are gamblers, and depositors used to stake them, but now the Fed mostly does that in the fractional reserve banking system, which should be a felony. In short, this near free (seemingly) money supply caused this problem by interfering with normal market forces. Quarterly reports outweigh long term gains, which seems to be the American way. Now what do I "really really" have to study about macro-economics ? T
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