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RE: Time to get in the market Maybe? - 10/25/2008 2:38:05 AM

NeedToUseYou

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That NAT looks interesting. I may join you there. Hrmmm, who says collarchat is a waste of productive time.

I know little about that stuff. (oil tankers), but I'll be an expert by monday, or at least minimally informed.

Thanks.

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RE: Time to get in the market Maybe? - 10/25/2008 11:49:03 AM

popeye1250

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quote:

ORIGINAL: NeedToUseYou

That NAT looks interesting. I may join you there. Hrmmm, who says collarchat is a waste of productive time.

I know little about that stuff. (oil tankers), but I'll be an expert by monday, or at least minimally informed.

Thanks.

Need to use, you certainly can't beat the dividend.
Also, the price of oil doesn't really affect the company, they don't "sell" it they "transport" it.
They've paid a dividend every quarter since it's inception.
And when the transport rates fall they schedule their ships for drydock maintainance so as to maximise their profits.
It's been a cash cow for me and for the other investors for the last ten years.
And if you look at their chart for the last ten years they've been volitile ranging from $10 to about $55 so it's a good stock for dollar cost averaging or, taking a shot and waiting for the price to fall to bring down your cost basis.
I've done that a few times. You can see why I hope it goes to $10 per share, I'll "hit it hard" and hold on.
It's funny that the big institutions aren't on this stock. At one time it had the highest dividend on the N.Y.S.E. so they made jokes about it!
It is still considered a "small" company though so many of the "big boys" may be prohibited by their charters from buying their shares.
One thing for sure, if (NAT) only does half as good in the next ten years as they've done in the last ten years we'll make plenty of money.

P.S. we'll probably have a "rally" in the next few weeks, but you want to "sell into" Bear Market Rallies.
If (NAT) goes up 10 or 20 points I'll have no problem selling it and building up cash and then buying it at lower levels and waiting for another bear market rally then selling into that.
Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get stuck.

< Message edited by popeye1250 -- 10/25/2008 12:16:19 PM >

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RE: Time to get in the market Maybe? - 10/25/2008 5:07:37 PM

awmslave

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It makes no sence getting into stocks when there is a prospect of several years rescession. If somebody have lot of cash, I would look around for some discount properties. There will be a decrease in dollar value.

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RE: Time to get in the market Maybe? - 10/25/2008 5:09:13 PM

Musicmystery

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I guess there's just no hope for Warren Buffett.

Let's hope he reads your post in time.

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RE: Time to get in the market Maybe? - 10/25/2008 5:23:27 PM

SL4V3M4YB3

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I'm investing in misery, you can buy all kinds of commodities these days. Misery and suffering are looking like good stock picks.

I'm starting to sound like Neil Cavuto I should really stop talking out of my arse.

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RE: Time to get in the market Maybe? - 10/25/2008 6:43:49 PM

TNstepsout

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quote:

ORIGINAL: awmslave

It makes no sence getting into stocks when there is a prospect of several years rescession. If somebody have lot of cash, I would look around for some discount properties. There will be a decrease in dollar value.

Buying discounted stocks is the same as buying discounted property. There is still a chance (a BIG chance) that property values will continue to decrease, so what makes you think property is any safer than stocks? A 15% loss is a 15% loss and a stock is a lot easier to dump if it starts to go down.

As far as whether it's time to get back in or not, even the experts are disagreeing, so who knows. It seems many are saying that if you are a value investor and have a 5+ year time line, then it's probably a good time to start buying. Others say we are still in for quite a bit of hurt and are hanging on to their cash for a while longer. Most seem to agree that it's not a good time for short term gains, unless you want to day trade the volatility. (which IMO is where the easy money is right now).

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RE: Time to get in the market Maybe? - 10/25/2008 9:06:56 PM

Real_Trouble

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Well, for my part, I will say this - those practicing the whole dollar-cost averaging index-fund approach should probably just stick with it and ride out the storm. That should be about 95% of people investing; for all that MM and I were arguing in the thread, I'm a huge advocate of index funds for people who are not intending to make a full time career out of investing, because there's this weird phenomenon with stocks where knowing a little often means you lose a lot, whereas knowing nothing means at least you bought the index fund...

As to the rest, for my part, I'm dipping a toe in here and there, but hardly pushing all my chips to the middle of the table. And keep in mind my investment horizon is very, very long term, so I might be wrong in specific but right on average with some of these (as in, they will lose more before they gain, but I think they are a good enough buy at the current price it's worth doing)... but we're talking about me literally working with DCF models, calling up the investor relations line for some of these companies (just say you have your shares in street name and they will talk much more with you than you'd expect if you are asking intelligent questions), and value hunting in the traditional "I think they might be worth more than market cap if they were liquidated" sense of Benjamin Graham.

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RE: Time to get in the market Maybe? - 10/27/2008 4:11:54 PM

popeye1250

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Needtouse, there's another shipping company that is currently paying 45% in dividends, yup, 45%!
It's Frontline Tankers symbol (FRO)
You might take a look at that one too.
Although they have 80 or so tankers, it's hard to get "bigger" when you're already big you can't beat that dividend!
Very low p/e ratio too and way down from it's high.

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RE: Time to get in the market Maybe? - 10/29/2008 9:35:36 AM

popeye1250

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I got a flier in the mail yesterday offering "$99 govt. issued gold coins for sale."
And, I'm seeing "gold coins for sale" on those late night-early morning t.v. shows now too!
Has anyone else noticed that when you see this kind of stuff it signals the "top" of the market for gold?

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RE: Time to get in the market Maybe? - 10/29/2008 9:51:55 AM

HalfShyHalfWild

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quote:

ORIGINAL: popeye1250

Needtouse, there's another shipping company that is currently paying 45% in dividends, yup, 45%!
It's Frontline Tankers symbol (FRO)
You might take a look at that one too.
Although they have 80 or so tankers, it's hard to get "bigger" when you're already big you can't beat that dividend!
Very low p/e ratio too and way down from it's high.

I'm not to Needtouse, but thank you.

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RE: Time to get in the market Maybe? - 10/31/2008 4:27:23 PM

popeye1250

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Well I had a very good week.
NAT and FRO up.
And I looked at the daily Spot Market for Tankers (Suezmax) and it's gone from $54,000 per day to $76,928 per day!
Niiiiiice!
I wouldn't be surprised to see the Tankership companies stock prices surpass their 52 week highs by the end of the year maybe sooner.
I'm looking for a retracement in the markets on mon, tue possably then more gains in "certain sectors."
And Jim Cramer "Loves" the Tanker ship stocks with their very high yields.

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RE: Time to get in the market Maybe? - 10/31/2008 4:30:47 PM

tweedydaddy

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Not yet, long way to go.

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RE: Time to get in the market Maybe? - 10/31/2008 4:41:33 PM

NeedToUseYou

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I didn't jump into those stocks yet, I may or may not. I really think the market is in for another deep dive, this week it just ignored all the bad news. All I did was play it safe quick ins and outs, made a few percent. I'll miss all the big upswings, the way I work, but I'll miss all the downswings to. I'm no where near convinced we've seen the bottom, until then I'm not going permanent long. Even though if someone had taken my advice they'd be sitting pretty right now. I'd suggest selling on these highs though. HEHE, I'm still waiting for the other shoe to drop, and credit card defaults just might be that shoe. Who knows, I just keep reading more reasons for a hard drop.

I'm now thinking 7000ish is probably the lowest low(open for revision, upon more dire news). If it hits that point all things being equal, I'll go permanent long. For now I'm just playing the gyrations. I'm watching the stocks you mention, just don't like the prices right now.

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RE: Time to get in the market Maybe? - 10/31/2008 6:59:28 PM

popeye1250

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quote:

ORIGINAL: NeedToUseYou

I didn't jump into those stocks yet, I may or may not. I really think the market is in for another deep dive, this week it just ignored all the bad news. All I did was play it safe quick ins and outs, made a few percent. I'll miss all the big upswings, the way I work, but I'll miss all the downswings to. I'm no where near convinced we've seen the bottom, until then I'm not going permanent long. Even though if someone had taken my advice they'd be sitting pretty right now. I'd suggest selling on these highs though. HEHE, I'm still waiting for the other shoe to drop, and credit card defaults just might be that shoe. Who knows, I just keep reading more reasons for a hard drop.

I'm now thinking 7000ish is probably the lowest low(open for revision, upon more dire news). If it hits that point all things being equal, I'll go permanent long. For now I'm just playing the gyrations. I'm watching the stocks you mention, just don't like the prices right now.

Need, as they say the market climbs a wall of worry and there's certainly a lot of worry out there.
And, we're due for a "bear market rally" at some point here and those can be stratospheric, up 2,000 points or more in a few days or a week.
Oh yeah, I'm fully aware that we're in a bear market, you just have to play them differantly.
Will you "like" (NAT) and (FRO) when they're 10 points higher? :)

< Message edited by popeye1250 -- 10/31/2008 7:00:54 PM >

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RE: Time to get in the market Maybe? - 11/4/2008 2:16:23 PM

popeye1250

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Well, I didn't see today's "election day rally" comming but it's most welcome!
(NAT) and (FRO) are both up smartly today.
And (FRO) has a rediculously low P/E of 3.73 and the yield is "down" to around 37% due to the recent price rises. It closed at $38.50 today that's up about $12 in two weeks.
Oh, and the CEO of (NAT) Nordic American Tankers (Herbjjon Hansson (sp)) will be interviewed on CNBC on friday morning 7 Nov between 0930 and 10:00 am.
I understand they're adding two more ships to the fleet in the next year or so. (Newbuilds) They are doing "accretive growth" in building the fleet and that means *no debt!*
A great and very profitable company to own.
The tankership stocks seem to be comming back after being beaten down to such low levels in the last 6 months.

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RE: Time to get in the market Maybe? - 11/4/2008 2:27:48 PM

Aslanemperor

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Personally, I predict a complete market crash like we had in the depression. As a result, my plan is to spend money on things. Mainly things people can use which can be bartered or sold outright. These will be worth far more then our money in such a situation. I'm waiting to implement such a plan however until things really look grim...

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RE: Time to get in the market Maybe? - 11/4/2008 7:56:47 PM

NeedToUseYou

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Glad your doing good popeye, I'm sorta kicking myself for not getting in, but I still think the whole market is going to tank again, I mean the libor rate is falling, but that is about it, gdp contracting, auto sales down, government in massive debt etc.... I just can't bring myself to leap in. Oh, well, that is also why I missed most of the downswing. So, win some miss some I guess.

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RE: Time to get in the market Maybe? - 11/4/2008 9:09:26 PM

subfever

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quote:

ORIGINAL: NeedToUseYou

Glad your doing good popeye, I'm sorta kicking myself for not getting in, but I still think the whole market is going to tank again, I mean the libor rate is falling, but that is about it, gdp contracting, auto sales down, government in massive debt etc.... I just can't bring myself to leap in. Oh, well, that is also why I missed most of the downswing. So, win some miss some I guess.

I wouldn't kick yourself too hard just yet. We may be seeing a classic bear market rally. Perhaps many traders feel the warm fuzzies due to the elections. Who knows. But the fundamentals still look a little bleak. The warm fuzzies may evaporate long before the holidays. Poor holiday sales may have everything crashing hard again.

It's anybody's guess. A crap-shoot at best.

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RE: Time to get in the market Maybe? - 11/4/2008 11:17:30 PM

popeye1250

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Sub, that's all true but we're still going to need oil for the forseeable future and the ships to transport it here.
And with gas prices down people are starting to use more of it again.
And if Obama has a huge rebuilding project for our infra-structure...

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RE: Time to get in the market Maybe? - 11/4/2008 11:19:30 PM

corysub

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quote:

ORIGINAL: subfever

quote:

ORIGINAL: NeedToUseYou

Glad your doing good popeye, I'm sorta kicking myself for not getting in, but I still think the whole market is going to tank again, I mean the libor rate is falling, but that is about it, gdp contracting, auto sales down, government in massive debt etc.... I just can't bring myself to leap in. Oh, well, that is also why I missed most of the downswing. So, win some miss some I guess.

I wouldn't kick yourself too hard just yet. We may be seeing a classic bear market rally. Perhaps many traders feel the warm fuzzies due to the elections. Who knows. But the fundamentals still look a little bleak. The warm fuzzies may evaporate long before the holidays. Poor holiday sales may have everything crashing hard again.

It's anybody's guess. A crap-shoot at best.

At this point I think a "crap-shot" would be an uptick! We have a new President with zero experience as an executive, a man whose history has been denied as irrelevant, but is certainly one that is not pro-business but pro-government, and has a Congress that will pass legislation against drilling, against nuclear, against the drug industry, against basically everything capitalistic. Progress...change are words like "love" and seen in the eyes of the beholder. I'm looking at the market from the viewpoint of a conservative...trying to guess the "direction of the unknown". To me..cash is still king for investment and the stock market attractive only for short-term trading with firm stop-loss discipline long and short.

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