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RE: Time to get in the market Maybe? - 11/5/2008 8:26:44 AM

popeye1250

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ORIGINAL: corysub

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ORIGINAL: subfever

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ORIGINAL: NeedToUseYou

Glad your doing good popeye, I'm sorta kicking myself for not getting in, but I still think the whole market is going to tank again, I mean the libor rate is falling, but that is about it, gdp contracting, auto sales down, government in massive debt etc.... I just can't bring myself to leap in. Oh, well, that is also why I missed most of the downswing. So, win some miss some I guess.

I wouldn't kick yourself too hard just yet. We may be seeing a classic bear market rally. Perhaps many traders feel the warm fuzzies due to the elections. Who knows. But the fundamentals still look a little bleak. The warm fuzzies may evaporate long before the holidays. Poor holiday sales may have everything crashing hard again.

It's anybody's guess. A crap-shoot at best.

At this point I think a "crap-shot" would be an uptick! We have a new President with zero experience as an executive, a man whose history has been denied as irrelevant, but is certainly one that is not pro-business but pro-government, and has a Congress that will pass legislation against drilling, against nuclear, against the drug industry, against basically everything capitalistic. Progress...change are words like "love" and seen in the eyes of the beholder. I'm looking at the market from the viewpoint of a conservative...trying to guess the "direction of the unknown". To me..cash is still king for investment and the stock market attractive only for short-term trading with firm stop-loss discipline long and short.

Cory, well if we're going to focus on the negative then "bankrupting coal companies" will surely be very good news for the tanker companies like FRO, DSX and NAT.
The "price" of oil doesn't matter to them, they don't "sell" it they "ship" it.
And, there'll be all kinds of other opportunities in other areas as well in the years ahead.
Another co I like not right now but in the next year is BWP, a pipeline company for shipping nat gas through pipelines. They own and are building more pipelines.
Cramer mentioned it the other week.
I don't think like a "conservative" I think like an opportunist, there's always ways to make money in the market.
And as for drilling I really don't think we have a lot of choice in the matter, we have to.

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RE: Time to get in the market Maybe? - 11/5/2008 4:20:49 PM

corysub

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quote:

ORIGINAL: popeye1250

quote:

ORIGINAL: corysub

quote:

ORIGINAL: subfever

quote:

ORIGINAL: NeedToUseYou

Glad your doing good popeye, I'm sorta kicking myself for not getting in, but I still think the whole market is going to tank again, I mean the libor rate is falling, but that is about it, gdp contracting, auto sales down, government in massive debt etc.... I just can't bring myself to leap in. Oh, well, that is also why I missed most of the downswing. So, win some miss some I guess.

I wouldn't kick yourself too hard just yet. We may be seeing a classic bear market rally. Perhaps many traders feel the warm fuzzies due to the elections. Who knows. But the fundamentals still look a little bleak. The warm fuzzies may evaporate long before the holidays. Poor holiday sales may have everything crashing hard again.

It's anybody's guess. A crap-shoot at best.

At this point I think a "crap-shot" would be an uptick! We have a new President with zero experience as an executive, a man whose history has been denied as irrelevant, but is certainly one that is not pro-business but pro-government, and has a Congress that will pass legislation against drilling, against nuclear, against the drug industry, against basically everything capitalistic. Progress...change are words like "love" and seen in the eyes of the beholder. I'm looking at the market from the viewpoint of a conservative...trying to guess the "direction of the unknown". To me..cash is still king for investment and the stock market attractive only for short-term trading with firm stop-loss discipline long and short.

Cory, well if we're going to focus on the negative then "bankrupting coal companies" will surely be very good news for the tanker companies like FRO, DSX and NAT.
The "price" of oil doesn't matter to them, they don't "sell" it they "ship" it.
And, there'll be all kinds of other opportunities in other areas as well in the years ahead.
Another co I like not right now but in the next year is BWP, a pipeline company for shipping nat gas through pipelines. They own and are building more pipelines.
Cramer mentioned it the other week.
I don't think like a "conservative" I think like an opportunist, there's always ways to make money in the market.
And as for drilling I really don't think we have a lot of choice in the matter, we have to.

I guess you don't understand the legislation that Obama was talking about. No company is going to build a "coal fired plant" and have to pay a tax for every unit of carbon emitted ...Notwithstanding the technology that cleans up effluents, there are still carbon emissions when you burn carbon fuels...No utility or company will, therefore, build such a plant and bankrupt themselves. Its the working slob that goes into the mines that will be out of work...you know...the unintended consequences of politicians running business. I have been an investor for sometime now and never looked at an individual stock as a conservative or liberal reason to own a share so congratulations to you on looking at the market for "opportunities" which is really the basic reason all of us are in the market..to make money.

I also know that when a market trend is in place, if you are on the wrong side of the trade..long or short...you will get killed. That was my point when I said "cash is king"..most people are not skilled enough in the process to short stocks...and this is not a time to be hero on the long side.

Good luck to you...and Cramer too!

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RE: Time to get in the market Maybe? - 11/10/2008 11:50:28 AM

popeye1250

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Seems we have a shortage of asphalt in this country.
I bought 500 shares of (TSO) Tesoro energy this morning at $9.79 per share.
Tesoro makes among other things, asphault.

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RE: Time to get in the market Maybe? - 11/10/2008 3:14:35 PM

BlackPhx

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Simple answer..do your homework. Don't put in more than you can afford to lose and look at companies that have had good performance in the past. Even though their stocks are down, they are the ones that will go back up, primarily because they are careful about not over extending themselves through credit purchasing and keep a good bottom line. Don't expect to gain in the short term, look for long term investments. You can get some good advice as to where the market may be headed here http://www.cnbc.com/id/15838459/ but right now it is really anyone's guess..Research and Diversify...do not put all your eggs in one basket.

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RE: Time to get in the market Maybe? - 11/10/2008 7:54:59 PM

popeye1250

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Cory. I subscribe to the "Peter Lynch Philosophy" of investing.
That is I buy things I know about.
And, one thing I know is that this stock market has been beaten down to below 1982 levels percentage wise or pretty close.
There are a lot of *good* companies selling at bargain basement prices and some very low p/e s.
And I "know" that Obama will not let the auto companies founder.

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RE: Time to get in the market Maybe? - 11/10/2008 9:32:24 PM

Termyn8or

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Jumpthrough.

I think maybe late next year. And consider that money expendable, DO NOT borrow it. Also realize that the ride back up goes alot slower than the ride down. Expendable money only, and definitely after July or so next yeat at least, perhaps later would be better.

Best to determine who they will allow to fall and who they won't. It is way too early to make a meaningful judgement. Personally I would wait until 2010 to see which way the wind blows, but that's just me.

T

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RE: Time to get in the market Maybe? - 11/10/2008 10:45:55 PM

popeye1250

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Term, the market "sees" 6-12 months ahead.
I don't know if I'd want to be in defense stocks or *Haliburton* though.

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RE: Time to get in the market Maybe? - 11/11/2008 10:13:10 AM

Termyn8or

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Oh, I would definitely be shorting Haliburton. I wonder if that's still allowed :-)

I just don't think stocks have hit rock bottom yet. Timing is everything. Also I want to see a few things sorted out. Some companies will be allowed to fail, that is inevitable because they just can't print enough money to save all of them. After those decisions are made, then it would be a good time to invest.

Even alternative energy, which I would consider to be one of the better investments, we have no idea in what direction they are going. We need to sit back and see which way the wind blows on that.

One thing I wouldn't mind getting into would be the generator mentioned in the "Can't Be Done" thread. I found out later that the thing uses the power of permanent magnets to generate electricity. It is not a perpetual motion machine by any stretch, at least in the purist definition. I hear now that they actually have a patent, which means they are most likely serious about selling these things. They are just not public as of yet, but then they might never go public. If I were them I would stand back and consider it carefully first.

My friend, now deceased used to play the market. In fact he told me one day that he picked up some penny stocks just for the hell of it, and got me some. I could be filthy rich right now and never know it. But what he said was that it doesn't matter so much how a company does, but what people think it's going to do. That was a glimpse into how the game really works and is one of the reasons I have stayed out of it.

All in all, if you have enough money, or your income is rock solid (rare these days) real estate is probably the best investment. With the market this depressed bargains are all over the place. Granted managing real estate requires actual work almost, but if you want a solid investment there you go. As Hunky pointed out, those houses are still there.

As I said, timing is of the essence. Imagine having bought Union Carbide stock right after that bad accident in India, that was the time. In other words you don't go shopping. You get your account setup and wait, and you might have to wait for some time. It also helps to have some knowledge. In the case of Union Carbide, knowing who their suppliers were at the time would be helpful, and if public, you do the obvious, buy low. For example now, if GM gets a bailout, find out who supplies them, as they will also be good investments. And know when to get out.

It is the same thing as gambling and I don't gamble against a large edge. I doubt anyone has the money that say, George Soros has, and therefore cannot be an influence. Let me tell you what a guy like that can do. He can invest, millions maybe more, and then dump it after people get on the bandwagon so to speak. That is one of the ways in which money begets money. For example if Soros bought ten million worth of xyz corporation at ten bucks a share, the stock would go up. Then in one fell swoop he can dump it, and really might not be able to get rid of all of it in time. However in those first batches of shares, he may have doubled or tripled his money. If it drops so bad that he just says screw selling the rest, he can afford to do that. If xyz corp does well anyway, he will make more money, if not the stock could be worthless. However he was able to dump say half of the stock at triple what he paid. He has already made money and gotten his original stake back. It matters not what he does at that point, the money has been made, or put more aptly, acquired.

My buddy had a bit of a knack for it, and thoughout many discussions over beer and whatever, I got the impression from him that the best way is to follow the big money. He was small potatoes, just like I am at the track. The board tells you what the big money is doing, and you follow that. When you are not big money, you cannot lead, therefore you must follow.

T

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RE: Time to get in the market Maybe? - 11/11/2008 12:41:18 PM

popeye1250

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Term, I don't know if we're at the "bottom" yet but a lot of signs are telling me that we're very close.
BofA and a bunch of other companies are making double and triple bottoms in their stock prices lately. That's an unmistakable sign that we're "close" if not "at" a bottom technically.
Plus all the doom and gloom that's out there.
On G.M. the way to make a play on it is not through the "common" shares but through the "prefered" series or the bonds some of which are paying out very high rates on the upside.
You know that the govt. won't let the auto industry go under when it provides 1 in every 10 jobs in this country.
I watch "Mad Money" every night with Jim Cramer.
Last night he commented that the guys who are making $25M a year for losing trillions of other people's money think that auto workers who make $70k a year are overpaid! lolol!
He said, "what do those people make", have they ever made a transmission or a fender?"
Gee, if those autoworkers just had college "degrees" they too could be losing $trillions of other people's money and be making more than $70k a year!
It's funny, when those stockbrokers call me and mail me stuff everyone of them says they're the "best."
*I wonder how many of them got their clients out of the market in august and are getting them back in now?* They're bullshitters.
And now we're seeing people with M.B.A's "selling stock!"
Talk about slumming it!
That's just plain bad management! They should be in "the back of the house" where you get more bang for your buck out of them.
You don't even need a high school diploma to "sell stock."
You just have to be lisensed.
That'd be like calling an M.D. to come over to clean your carpets!
A few years back there was a phrase that was very prominant in business, "over-qualified." Seems they've forgotten that one already!
So now everytime any of those brokerages calls me I tell them that I don't want any "M.B.A.s" as my stockbroker.
"I just want a regular person to invest my $30 m with."
lol!
I like Peter Lynch's approach to stock picking, pick good companies that you know about, know about their business, and their products and or services.
There's a time to use the "shotgun" approach and there's a time to use the "rifle" approach.
And right now "yield" is the name of the game.
Even Cramer said the best strategy is to buy stocks with "accidentally high yields" that is stocks that have been beaten down so much that their yields are now high.
If President Obama says "don't drill" my tanker stocks will do very nicely on the growth side.
If he says "drill" they'll do very nicely on the yield side!
And with China continuing to grow albeit at a slower rate that's a plus too.
Also, I noticed that with gas prices way down people are using more, also good for tanker stocks. How's that for "rifling?"
And as for "big money" there really is none in (NAT) one of the tanker cos that I own.
But their market cap is right around $1b so that makes them a "small company" and precludes a lot of the big funds from owning their stock..
I like "smaller" cos like that as that's where the real "growth" opportunities are.
It's much easier for (NAT) to grow from $1b to a $2b market cap and double their size than it is for a large cap co of $100b to get to $200b.
And with all the big public works and infrastructure projects that *will* be comming up during an Obama Administration that'll be good for a lot of companies!
Caterpillar, steel companies, and cement companies are only some of the many that will benefit.
They'll be using a shitload of cement so I'll be checking out some of those types of companies too.
It's funny, the doom and gloomers always think that everything's going to come to a complete stop, no one will ever buy anything again, no one will ever travel again, woe is me.
There's a LOT of work to be done in this country!
And it's time to get it started instead of "rebuilding" foreign countries like Iraq.
And with the American people starting to benefit from all that work over what may be 10 years, many of them will be able to start buying chevrolets, gmc trucks,and caddies! And when they do that's going to put a lot more people back to work, not just auto workers but all their suppliers, truckdrivers, accountants, managers etc, etc.
So, if President Obama gets this thing going we could very well have a "boom" in this country again.

< Message edited by popeye1250 -- 11/11/2008 12:53:21 PM >

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RE: Time to get in the market Maybe? - 11/12/2008 9:29:58 AM

Termyn8or

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I think your thinking is pretty sound. If you can afford to lose in the short term. I think we'll be looking a P fluctuations with just about every press conference in the near future. Didn't really think about the P/E though, as I really don't play the game. For me, finding out how the game works pretty much scared me away. However you're right, the P could drop, but does the /E automatically drop accordingly ? I hadn't given that any thought. It's probably pretty sweet about now.

My point was though, if you are investing in a busted market, which is what you would be doing, I would like to make sure it's as busted as it will get first.

The other problem is with manipulation, which is going to happen, one could be lulled into a false sense of security (no pun intended, this time) I am sure the goverment will be making promises just to revive the market somewhat, and in that way they get the private investor foot some of the bill. It is to their advantage to do so, need I say more ?

If I were playing that game I am not certain exactly what I would do. If I had parlayed it up enough to just ride the storm out I might just do that. Asphalt isn't a bad idea, because they always need it. That is built into the system. It wears and cracks and actually is inferior, and I believe that has been finessed to supply a bunch of jobs for those who go out and replace it. That is not a policy of which I approve, but abandoning it now would not be a good idea.

I think the loss of any jobs will be considered an anaethma to this new administration. The question is, just how much money can they print ?

In other words in the future we might have GM and Ford, but maybe no Chrysler. They simply can't bail out every company, however a few biggies will support smaller businesses of course. That is if they buy from US vendors at least, hopefully manufacturers. I think that should be a key point when a bailout happens. That those companies don't move out jobs, or outsourse to other countries. Maybe then we can again actually buy something American, oops, US made. We can put a Man on the Moon but we can't make fuel injectors for our own cars ?

Then you need to have just a bit of faith I guess that the US people will buy US made cars for example, even if they cost a few more grand. Part of that happening is going to be reliability and servicability. I don't have much confidence that it will be on their mind very much, and thus the gains may be short lived.

In other words I don't care if your car gets 100MPG, it gets 0MPG in the shop. And if it costs many thousands to repair it might just stay there, that is until it is melted down. Then you have people losing their jobs for lack of transportation, not all but a significant number. Then when it comes to hybrids we are talking a whole new ballgame. When those things run their product life cycle they will be alot harder to handle than current autos, and it is going to cost. Of course they will find things they can reuse, but I also think that they are going to find some very nasty things they cannot use.

BTW, I now have a question. Maybe you can answer it, or who knows who. Just how are the foreign auto companies with major plants in the US doing ? There are several factors here. First of all they are newer and probably have less retirees. It's also possible that their retirement funds are vested overseas, where things might be bad, but not as bad as here. I know Toyota and Honda build quite a few cars here, among others. How are they doing ? Are they also licking the governments hand or are they doing fine. Or possibly that they do not want to ask and they just go to their overseas parent company when things get rough ?

Got me wondering here because I have heard nothing, not a peep about this. I am not really sure if foreign auto makers are even on the NYSE, or maybe only their US based subsidiaries are ? Because really, if you could invest in US companies and short foreign companies in direct competition, you win more.

Yes win. It is a game. I would bet you would make a good poker player pop. But as I may have stated before, a poker game is only fair if people have a similar amount of money at stake. I mean you can't have everybody bring a grand and one person bring fifty grand. You know what will happen. If there ever was a no limit game, the stock market is it.

T

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RE: Time to get in the market Maybe? - 11/20/2008 10:44:42 PM

popeye1250

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Well, the market is down again for the last week.
One guy said on CNBC that if we keep going at this rate we'll be "at zero" in about 15 days.
There's also a lot of "shorts" in the market now! (People betting that the market will continue to go down.)
If we have a viscious "Bear Market Rally" of 1,000 to 2,000 points those "shorts" are going to get slaughtered!
And we're way overdue for a rally like that now.
"The Bear eats everyone!"

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RE: Time to get in the market Maybe? - 11/20/2008 11:23:53 PM

Lordandmaster

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Oh come on. All the real conservatives are thrilled that the Bush regime is over. The problem is that the word "conservative" is being grotesquely redefined before our very eyes.

quote:

ORIGINAL: corysub

At this point I think a "crap-shot" would be an uptick! We have a new President with zero experience as an executive, a man whose history has been denied as irrelevant, but is certainly one that is not pro-business but pro-government, and has a Congress that will pass legislation against drilling, against nuclear, against the drug industry, against basically everything capitalistic. Progress...change are words like "love" and seen in the eyes of the beholder. I'm looking at the market from the viewpoint of a conservative...

< Message edited by Lordandmaster -- 11/20/2008 11:24:11 PM >

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