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The Second Wave of Foreclosures - 12/17/2008 5:29:14 PM   
Hippiekinkster


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It ain't over yet. Nowhere near. Now the Option ARMs and Alt-As are resetting. People are walking away from the teaser rates now. A whole lot more people will be walking away after the resets.

I'm so happy my house is paid for. I have two rentals left, and they recently reset downwards. Nice.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/12/12/60minutes/main4666112.shtml?source=RSSattr=HOME_4666112

""How big is the potential damage from the Alt As compared to what we just saw in the sub-primes?" Pelley asks.

"Well, the sub-prime is, was approaching $1 trillion, the Alt-A is about $1 trillion. And then you have option ARMs on top of that. That's probably another $500 billion to $600 billion on top of that," Tilson says.

Asked how many of these option ARMs he imagines are going to fail, Tilson says, "Well north of 50 percent. My gut would be 70 percent of these option ARMs will default." "

Here we go, down the chute!!!

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RE: The Second Wave of Foreclosures - 12/17/2008 5:33:17 PM   
rexrgisformidoni


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The newspaper here had an article last sunday about commercial mortgages failing too. Not good. 

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RE: The Second Wave of Foreclosures - 12/17/2008 6:13:02 PM   
pahunkboy


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Dudes.   The houses STILL exist.   the mortgage mess is a bad deal.... but the major damage IS the DERIVATIVES.  not the houses.

a derivative is a extreme gamble gone wild.   the housing mess is only a front...not the actual problem.  (in so far as the fractional banking, fiat currency, ILLEGAL federal private reserve corporation)

Being that US tax money went to the bail out... these homes become federal property.  The homeless under the law, are offered properties like an abandoned military base, the option to purchase it for $1.



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RE: The Second Wave of Foreclosures - 12/17/2008 6:14:47 PM   
thornhappy


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Which military base would that be?

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RE: The Second Wave of Foreclosures - 12/17/2008 6:25:37 PM   
bluepanda


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quote:

ORIGINAL: thornhappy

Which military base would that be?


Yeah, no kidding! I wanna buy a SAC base. One that still has all its missiles. Then when one of these moderators tells me to tone down my posting style, I'll show them who's their fucking daddy. Y'all best believe it!


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RE: The Second Wave of Foreclosures - 12/17/2008 6:34:46 PM   
pahunkboy


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Program Number 39.002   Last Known Status Active   Objectives To dispose of surplus real property by lease, permits, sale, exchange, or donation.   Types of Assistance Sale, Exchange, or Donation of Property and Goods.   Uses and Use Restrictions Surplus real and related personal property may be conveyed for: public park or recreation use and public health or educational purposes at discounts up to 100 percent; public airport purposes, wildlife conservation, correctional facility, replacement housing and for historic monument purposes without monetary consideration; and for general public purposes without restrictions at a negotiated price of not less than the estimated fair market value of the property. Properties are made available for discount conveyance where the public purposes to be served reflect the highest and best use of the property. Properties determined suitable by the Department of Housing and Urban Development may be made available by permit, lease, or deed for homeless assistance use. Restrictions: Surplus real property conveyed for public park or recreation use, historic monument, public airport use, correctional facility use and wildlife conservation use must be used for the purposes so conveyed in perpetuity. Property conveyed for health (including homeless) or education use must be used for those purposes for a period of not less than 30 years. Properties made available for homeless use by lease or permit must be used for that purpose for a period of not less than one year, unless the provider requests a shorter term. Surplus real property which is not deeded to public bodies or made available for homeless purposes is generally offered for sale to the public on a competitive bid basis.

http://www.federalgrantswire.com/disposal-of-federal-surplus-real-property.html

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RE: The Second Wave of Foreclosures - 12/17/2008 6:51:19 PM   
OneMoreWaste


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That's okay, Uncle Sam will just print more dough to give to the bankers, and everything will be happy-happy again. 

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RE: The Second Wave of Foreclosures - 12/17/2008 6:52:24 PM   
thornhappy


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for general public purposes without restrictions at a negotiated price of not less than the estimated fair market value of the property. Properties are made available for discount conveyance where the public purposes to be served reflect the highest and best use of the property. Properties determined suitable by the Department of Housing and Urban Development may be made available by permit, lease, or deed for homeless assistance use.

I bolded some of the important points there.  No ex-military base is going to have a fair market price of $1.  Homeless assistance does not mean sale to homeless people for a buck.

Some bases have killer property (Presidio of San Francisco) but even that base required remediation.  Most of the BRAC sites require(d) remediation for toxic waste, ground water contamination, asbestos, and the like.  It's not something for the faint of heart.

Even 29 Palms would probably sell for more than a dollar (good for diehard desert rats.)

Now, here in Dayton you can get abandoned homes for $1 with approved plans for the restoration of the home.  They are in sad, sad shape and need total rehab.  If the gods were with you, it would still have siding, wiring, and pipes.

thornhappy

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RE: The Second Wave of Foreclosures - 12/17/2008 8:07:53 PM   
MzMia


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HK, I would also think that with so many people losing their jobs,
and already being stretched to the maximum, that it is normally
hard to maintain a home when you are on unemployment.
 
We are headed for far worse than a recession.

The Coming Depression

< Message edited by MzMia -- 12/17/2008 8:10:59 PM >


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RE: The Second Wave of Foreclosures - 12/17/2008 10:16:51 PM   
extrmsadistseeks


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There is a perception among many contacts that the financial crisis has stabilized and that the fallout from the sub-prime bubble has been contained. What is missing in that analysis is the fact that this financial crisis has still a long way to go because there are other bubbles bursting.
Interestingly, there is no place to hide from this. Food for thought.
Please see this analysis of the financial crisis from DK Matai, chairman and founder of ATCA Open.

There is a rising myth of the single bubble which suggests that The Great Unwind -- manifest as the global credit crunch -- is essentially about subprime mortgage default, a USD 1.5 trillion challenge. The truth is that there are as many as eight bubbles at play which are in the process of bursting, taking the form of deleverage on an unprecedented scale. Even 1929 pales in comparison. At a recent ATCA roundtable we posed the following questions for Socratic dialogue:
I. If the Dow Jones Industrial Average has fallen from above 14,000 to below 9,000 as a result of the subprime mortgage bubble collapse, ie a 5,000+ points drop or 33% decline, where will the equities market reach by 2010 as other larger bubbles burst?
II. If the world government bond market is around USD 30 trillion, how can governments rescue the eight bubbles bursting step by step with an ever larger quantum and momentum? What ought to be the focus at Bretton Woods II starting November 15th?
There are at least eight bubbles in play worldwide and their approximate scale is as follows:
1. Subprime Mortgage linked Loans and other Assets (USD 1.5 trillion);
2. China, India, Eastern Europe and other Emerging Market Loans (USD 5 trillion);
3. Commodities (Commodity Derivatives at about USD 9 trillion);
4. Corporate bonds (USD 15 trillion);
5. Commercial (USD 25 trillion) and Residential property (USD 50 trillion);
6. Credit Cards Outstanding Debt (USD 2.5 trillion);
7. Currencies (Foreign Exchange Derivatives at about USD 56 trillion); and
8. Credit Default Swaps (USD 58 trillion) as a subset of all Derivatives (USD 1,144 Trillion).
In the ATCA briefing, "The Invisible One Quadrillion Dollar Equation" we discussed the main categories of the USD 1.144 Quadrillion derivatives market as quoted by the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland:
1. Listed credit derivatives stood at USD 548 trillion;
2. The Over-The-Counter (OTC) derivatives stood in notional or face value at USD 596 trillion and included:
a. Interest Rate Derivatives at about USD 393+ trillion;
b. Credit Default Swaps at about USD 58+ trillion;
c. Foreign Exchange Derivatives at about USD 56+ trillion;
d. Commodity Derivatives at about USD 9 trillion;
e. Equity Linked Derivatives at about USD 8.5 trillion; and
f. Unallocated Derivatives at about USD 71+ trillion.
The relative scale of the world's financial engine is as follows:
1. The entire GDP of the US is about USD 14 trillion.
2. The entire US money supply is also about USD 15 trillion.
3. The GDP of the entire world is USD 50 trillion. USD 1,144 trillion is 22 times the GDP of the whole world.
4. The real estate of the entire world is valued at about USD 75 trillion.
5. The world stock and bond markets are valued at about USD 100 trillion.
6. The big banks alone own about USD 140 trillion in derivatives.
7. The population of the whole planet is about 6 billion people. So the derivatives market alone represents about USD 190,000 per person on the planet.
Assuming a 10% conservative default or decline in asset value, this could be a USD 100 trillion challenge on the base of a Quadrillion. What are the likely outcomes? We are keen to receive your answers and solutions. Please note that the numbers quoted are a rough guide.
We welcome your thoughts, observations and views. To reflect further on this, please respond within Facebook's ATCA Open discussion board.
The "ATCA Open" network on Facebook is for professionals interested in ATCA's original global aims, working with ATCA step-by-step across the world, or developing tools supporting ATCA's objectives to build a better world.



The original ATCA -- Asymmetric Threats Contingency Alliance -- is a philanthropic expert initiative founded in 2001 to resolve complex global challenges through collective Socratic dialogue and joint executive action to build a wisdom based global economy. Adhering to the doctrine of non-violence, ATCA addresses asymmetric threats and social opportunities arising from climate chaos and the environment; radical poverty and microfinance; geo-politics and energy; organised crime & extremism; advanced technologies -- bio, info, nano, robo & AI; demographic skews and resource shortages; pandemics; financial systems and systemic risk; as well as transhumanism and ethics. Present membership of the original ATCA network is by invitation only and has over 5,000 distinguished members from over 120 countries: including 1,000 Parliamentarians; 1,500 Chairmen and CEOs of corporations; 1,000 Heads of NGOs; 750 Directors at Academic Centres of Excellence; 500 Inventors and Original thinkers; as well as 250 Editors-in-Chief of major media.

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RE: The Second Wave of Foreclosures - 12/18/2008 12:13:47 AM   
Hippiekinkster


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And then, a few years down the road, PEAK OIL.

"
Global oil output could peak by 2020 - much earlier than expected - amid a collapse in investment due to the financial crisis, the International Energy Agency's (IEA) chief economist Fatih Birol claimed.
In an interview published today Birol told London-based newspaper the Guardian that conventional crude output could plateau in 2020, a development that was "not good news" for a world still heavily dependent on petroleum.
The IEA has never before been specific about the point at which conventional oil would peak, although last month it said total crude output could peak in 2030.
Birol's comments follow other signs that the IEA is rapidly changing its view. In its 2007 World Energy Outlook, the IEA predicted a rate of decline from the world's existing oilfields at 3.7%, only to admit 12 months later that the speed of the fall was more likely 6.7%.
Read more: Upstream Online or The Guardian"
http://www.peakoil.net/

I really do think this is it. There is no way at all humanity can get its shit together and work towards the common purpose of developing any meaningful replacement energy sources.

SO we have a world-wide super-depression leading up to ever-declining stocks of petroleum. And on top of all this, we have Global Climate Change, which is already irreversibly altering the global ecology. (110F summers in Europe, anyone?) Massive droughts (such as Australia), massive crop failures
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2008/01/080131-warming-crops.html
and the fungus known as Ug99 is spreading across the globe,
"David Kotok, chairman and chief investment officer of Cumberland Advisors,
said the deadly fungus, Puccinia graminis, is now spreading through some
areas of the globe where “crop losses are expected to reach 100 percent.”
Losses in Africa are already at 70 percent of the crop, Kotok said.
“The economic losses expected from this fungus are now in the many billions
and growing. Worse, there is an intensifying fear of exacerbated food
shortages in poor and emerging countries of the world,” Kotok told investors
in a research note." http://www.global-nation.com/blog/2008/05/04/experts-warn-wheat-crop-failures-could-be-total/
And then there's the world-wide water shortage:
http://ag.arizona.edu/AZWATER/awr/dec99/Feature2.htm

Yippee! We're all gonna die! (Country Joe)

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"We are convinced that freedom w/o Socialism is privilege and injustice, and that Socialism w/o freedom is slavery and brutality." Bakunin

“Nothing we do, however virtuous, can be accomplished alone; therefore we are saved by love.” Reinhold Ne

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RE: The Second Wave of Foreclosures - 12/18/2008 3:49:34 AM   
pahunkboy


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extreme:  my- I think I got dizzy reading all those trillion numbers.

This is precisely what I mean.  The monetary system CAN NOT BE SAVED.   So the doom and gloom (unfortunately) fits.    That is why folks must plan now.  1923, Germany had hyper inflation.  It was cheaper to burn money then to get firewood.

it boils down to 2 option.   1 we globalize.  or 2 we coin our own many backed by gold.  there is not other option.  only the 2.   of which the 1st, will mean the end of any sovereignty.

so what wll Americans DO?   cancel 1 of the 2 of their cell phones?????   when push comes to shove, it wont be enough.

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RE: The Second Wave of Foreclosures - 12/18/2008 4:09:47 AM   
MrRodgers


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People, get a grip. This is nothing even remotely close to 1929 to 1939. By 1933 there was 25% unemployment. My grandparents had lost 4 houses and $30,000 cash.

In 1913 congress (unconstitutionally) formed the federal reserve. This was due directly as a result of the 1907 so-called bank panic...engineered by bankers not only as a rationale to form the fed BUT to break PRIVATE banks and have them closed. They were only partially successful as about 5-6000 banks did fold. Most of them were acquired by J.P Morgan.

Fast forward to 1929...a TRIPLING of the money supply...massive speculation in everything (roaring 20's) the big players ALL got OUT of the market summer of 29. That new thing called 'margins' were called (and in 24 hrs by design) and we have a free fall. MISSION ACCOMPLISHED the remaining 16,000 PRIVATE banks...out of business.

Now they had what they wanted...an ENTIRELY federal reserve run and supported banking system 80% of which is owned PRIVATELY.



< Message edited by MrRodgers -- 12/18/2008 4:12:00 AM >

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RE: The Second Wave of Foreclosures - 12/18/2008 4:39:37 AM   
pahunkboy


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Thank you Mr Rodgers!   It is important to imform others of this. There is actually a woman on the US banking committee that did not know the dollar is not backed by metals.

There is "some" hope.   This excerpt is from the Larouch adress to Europe.  (I know he was just in India...)
...
...of January, presumably the elected President of the United States will be inaugurated. Between now and then, it is extremely difficult to forecast exactly what will happen. The terrorism in India and Mumbai is merely typical of this interim situation and what we must be prepared to deal with. But in the meantime, the issue which is facing the coming President of the United States, who has, incidentally nominated a number of friends and collaborators of mine for his government, starting with of course Hillary Clinton as Secretary of State; but the problems that are going to confront all of them, is something I forecast on the 25th of July of 2007, where I forecast that I expected within a few days or so, we must expect the beginning of the biggest crisis of all modern history, the biggest economic-financial crisis in all history. Three days later, it broke out. The crisis is essentially one of a financial derivatives crisis: That the system of speculation which was launched under Alan Greenspan when he began the head of the Federal Reserve System of financial derivatives has reached the point of explosion. It's over quadrillions of dollars of debt. And there's no possibility that this debt could ever be satisfied or liquidated. This presents the world with a danger, the challenge of a reorganization of the world monetary-financial system, and what I am proposing to my friends and sympathizers in the coming administration, is that we put the entire world through a financial reorganization, in the direction of the policies of Franklin Roosevelt in 1944. Not what Truman began to implement in 1945, but what Franklin Roosevelt presented at the Bretton Woods conference in 1944: That is, to create an international credit system based on a fixed-exchange rate of credit systems among nations, and to proceed to start a program of actual recovery, financial-economic recovery. We know what the situation is in Europe, we know largely what the situation is presently in the United States. The insanity of the present government of the United States, in going to a virtual zero interest rate, much like what the yen did some years ago, in the overnight yen market, is a piece of insanity whose results we have yet to see. I would hope that this would be reversed. If it's not reversed, then we have an incalculable situation. But in any case: That's the issue. The issue is, we must end the kind of financial system which was created since 1971-1972. We must go back to a system of a fixed-exchange-rate system. It must be based on a credit system, not a financial system. What I mean, is this: The United States is unique among nations, in the fact that we have a credit system, where European nations have financial systems, monetary systems. The difference is this: Under our Constitution, the creation of money, or credit, must be made by the President of the United States, but with the consent of the House of Representatives. This credit can be then used, and monetized, as specified by the legislation and by upholding the President's power to utter credit. What I'm proposing, essentially, is that we use the United States' Constitution, with its provision for a credit system, through treaty agreements with other nations to create a fixed-exchange-rate credit system. The purpose is largely to generate credit, which can then be used, internationally, for building up long-term investments in the world economy. This means, taking much of the financial derivatives, which could never be paid anyway—there's no possibility of satisfying the demands of this financial system presently; there's not that amount of money will ever exist in the world, to pay off quadrillions of dollars of debt, which is largely fraudulent debt. And therefore, we have wipe this aspect of the debt of the world off the books, and go back to a credit system which is based on the idea of the nation-state, as opposed to what we're getting now, in terms of a new, funny international system, a monetary system. Go back to the nation-state, and take long-term commitments, in terms of a quarter-century, half-century, or full century, depending upon the category. /snip
for more go here _>

http://larouchepac.com/

BTW- I dont want to hear he is a nut. Discuss why his ideas wont work.  Or will.  It simply wastes time to ingore these ideas.

...he does seem abit more positive about our future.  so that is good.  :-)

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RE: The Second Wave of Foreclosures - 12/18/2008 6:02:14 AM   
TNstepsout


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quote:

ORIGINAL: pahunkboy

extreme:  my- I think I got dizzy reading all those trillion numbers.

This is precisely what I mean.  The monetary system CAN NOT BE SAVED.   So the doom and gloom (unfortunately) fits.    That is why folks must plan now.  1923, Germany had hyper inflation.  It was cheaper to burn money then to get firewood.

it boils down to 2 option.   1 we globalize.  or 2 we coin our own many backed by gold.  there is not other option.  only the 2.   of which the 1st, will mean the end of any sovereignty.

so what wll Americans DO?   cancel 1 of the 2 of their cell phones?????   when push comes to shove, it wont be enough.



What makes you think gold is worth anything? What real value does gold have? It's superconductive and used in some technical applications, but other than that, it's just a shiny metal. What makes gold backed currency more stable than any other kind?

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RE: The Second Wave of Foreclosures - 12/18/2008 6:06:28 AM   
TNstepsout


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quote:

ORIGINAL: MrRodgers

People, get a grip. This is nothing even remotely close to 1929 to 1939. By 1933 there was 25% unemployment. My grandparents had lost 4 houses and $30,000 cash.



The crash occurred in late 1929 and THREE YEARS LATER the unemployment was at 25%. We are only about a year into this. What was the unemployment rate six month after the crash of 1929? That's what you need to compare.

Our government and governments around the world have done a lot to stave off a complete economic collapse, so we might get out of this without a Great Depression, but make no mistake, this is every bit as serious (perhaps even more so) than the collapse of 1929. It is far more global in scope. I think we might have escaped a Great Depression, but I've no illusions that we'll see prosperity any time soon. It's just beginning.

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RE: The Second Wave of Foreclosures - 12/18/2008 9:15:52 AM   
pahunkboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: TNstepsout

quote:

ORIGINAL: pahunkboy

extreme:  my- I think I got dizzy reading all those trillion numbers.

This is precisely what I mean.  The monetary system CAN NOT BE SAVED.   So the doom and gloom (unfortunately) fits.    That is why folks must plan now.  1923, Germany had hyper inflation.  It was cheaper to burn money then to get firewood.

it boils down to 2 option.   1 we globalize.  or 2 we coin our own many backed by gold.  there is not other option.  only the 2.   of which the 1st, will mean the end of any sovereignty.

so what wll Americans DO?   cancel 1 of the 2 of their cell phones?????   when push comes to shove, it wont be enough.



What makes you think gold is worth anything? What real value does gold have? It's superconductive and used in some technical applications, but other than that, it's just a shiny metal. What makes gold backed currency more stable than any other kind?



I suppose a currency backed by  a same item that is fixed in amount.    the phoarahs burried in tombs, with gold.  which was around 2000 years ago, when Jesus walked.   Silver and gold can be implied when talking about either.

It works because there is no possible way to create more of it.   even if the chemicals were alterred, that cost of such would cost more then the product.   but yeah, uraniun, plutoniun, I suppose might work.
If you dont do coins, your jewerly is the most valueble thing you own.   tho- a hungry person, i guess food is best....as you cant eat the gold

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RE: The Second Wave of Foreclosures - 12/18/2008 9:33:16 AM   
UncleNasty


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TN,

Gold and silver have been the most common forms of money for the past several thousands of years, across several continents and in numerous cultures and societies by millions upon million of people (probably more like billions and billions).

Do you believe they were all mistaken in selecting them?

Uncle Nasty (started rehab yesterday)

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RE: The Second Wave of Foreclosures - 12/18/2008 12:29:21 PM   
popeye1250


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Wow, all this negativity, I like it!
The markets climb a "wall of worry."
You forget that Obama is going to have a massive rebuilding program in this country that will put tens of millions of people to work.
That will be good for everyone; the people, large and small companies, our deteriorating infrastructure, the stock and bond markets.


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RE: The Second Wave of Foreclosures - 12/18/2008 12:46:48 PM   
Musicmystery


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quote:

Gold and silver have been the most common forms of money for the past several thousands of years, across several continents and in numerous cultures and societies by millions upon million of people (probably more like billions and billions).

Do you believe they were all mistaken in selecting them?


Yes.

Those were simpler times (economically). Even then, when a wealthy Mali king visited Cairo a few centuries back, he brought so much gold that it severely depressed monetary value.

Gold and silver also used to be difficult to extract. New processes in the late 19th century changed that.

People cling to the gold/silver backed monetary concept because it seems simple. It's not. Even at the turn of the 20th century, the U.S. debated fiercely whether to back currency with gold or silver, gold backed by industrialists, silver by populists.

But gold and silver are themselves commodities--gold is used in your computer connections, for example, and silver in your photographs. Their value is not at all constant, and linking money to them only gives the illusion of stability. Sure, you can predict the PRICE, but you still can't peg the VALUE. That value will still be determined by a host of factors, including Real GDP, the Current Account, inflation, and the balance of trade. This is WHY governments turned to free (OK, well, managed) floats--peg currency to gold, silver, pine cones, coffee beans or paper clips, and nothing really changes. All such pegging DOES accomplish is opening the door for arbitragers to take advantage of the real value vs. the pegged value, at the expense of the Central Bank (and then the taxpayers, if only in the form of inflation).

In this case, the simplification is an additional complication. Returning to a silver or gold standard would be fantastically foolish.

btw---I glad to see you're on the mend!




< Message edited by Musicmystery -- 12/18/2008 12:49:19 PM >

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