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What Do You See In the Near Future? - 4/22/2009 7:15:07 AM

CatdeMedici

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In the US? I ask this about the US because I am only peripherally aware of economic/political situations in other countries and don't feel able to support discussion---

What do you see happening in the next 24 months? Misuse and criminal charges around bailout dollars, a slow then a more rapid decline? Escalation? More corporate suicides? Are we better or worse than we were in the Great Depression?

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RE: What Do You See In the Near Future? - 4/22/2009 7:16:59 AM

MichiganHeadmast

Posts: 726
Joined: 8/13/2006
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I predict giant grasshoppers. I mean, it's about as valid as any other guess on economic issues.

(in reply to CatdeMedici)

Post #: 2

RE: What Do You See In the Near Future? - 4/22/2009 8:39:55 AM

pahunkboy

Posts: 33061
Joined: 2/26/2006
From: Central Pennsylvania
Status: offline

Good post! I see more people waking up to the fact that we have been robbed.

The problem is the protests will be managed to do anything BUT solve the main problem.

I see more people out of a house. More unemployed.

For myself - I see me in the same shape as I am in now- so I wont be at any protests.

(in reply to MichiganHeadmast)

Post #: 3

RE: What Do You See In the Near Future? - 4/22/2009 8:41:23 AM

kittinSol

Posts: 16926
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: CatdeMedici
Are we better or worse than we were in the Great Depression?

No idea, I wasn't around then. You'll have to ask MichiganHeadamst: he remembers that epoch very well, I hear

.

_____________________________

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Post #: 4

RE: What Do You See In the Near Future? - 4/22/2009 9:49:47 AM

awmslave

Posts: 599
Joined: 3/31/2006
Status: offline

I see slow recovery from the current situation but no economic boom. The next crisis will hit hard by the end of Obama second term.

(in reply to kittinSol)

Post #: 5

RE: What Do You See In the Near Future? - 4/22/2009 9:59:19 AM

FullCircle

Posts: 5713
Joined: 11/24/2005
Status: offline

4-8 years is more of a midterm prediction than short term, you deserve a bonus for outstanding work.

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(in reply to awmslave)

Post #: 6

RE: What Do You See In the Near Future? - 4/22/2009 10:16:33 AM

SteelofUtah

Posts: 5307
Joined: 10/2/2007
From: St George Utah
Status: offline

A good friend and Economy Professor at UNLV explained what the bailout will do and why it is a bad idea and why most economy professors have not be asked to be on the news.

The Bailout regardless of misuse will inflate the economy briefly and everyone will be happy and shiny again. For about 1 to 2 years and then there will be a little fall and then back up again as the money that was spent gets re-distributed naturally again. Then around year 4 to 6 there is a MAJOR problem. All the money has been evened out and returned to the market and yet we are now paying taxes to cover the bailout so prices go up to cover the expence but there is no relief to bring anything back down again and you are stuck with the inability to do another bailout and now the companies that we saved before can't get another bailout and fail ANYWAY because they were never supposed to survive the first time.

Bailouts are BAD for the economy because the economy never actually sees much of the money. It just covers bad decisions already made, no money gets but back into the economic stream we just cover money that wasn't there or needed to be there in order to keep something from dying.

The Bailout was a BAD BAD MOVE, and no one will see the reality of how bad until like has already been said the end of the term of the one who will be determined as being responsible for it. I believe in this next electioon you will see more Independent Runners and by the end of Obama's Run you will see an Independent elected President. Most likely from a Constitutionalist Party or something Similar.

That is my Prediction. And yes that is NEAR future because the actions of our goverment today will be felt for 20 to 40 years later. We won't even start to see the ramifications of what this Bailout has caused until long after Obama is gone from office be it 4 or 8 years.

Seriously the Economy is not effected in the daily aspect it is effected in the Yearly one.

A Small splash can still sause a ripple far from where it started, the bigger the splash the farther and longer the ripples will be seen.

Steel

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Resident Therapeutic Metallurgist
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Thanks for the Grammatical support : ) ~ Term

(in reply to CatdeMedici)

Post #: 7

RE: What Do You See In the Near Future? - 4/22/2009 10:30:37 AM

sub4hire

Posts: 6775
Joined: 1/1/2004
Status: offline

Much, much worse than it is now for this country. Look at our debt alone and think about it. What are we going to do to get it back down?

(in reply to CatdeMedici)

Post #: 8

RE: What Do You See In the Near Future? - 4/22/2009 10:35:11 AM

ElectraGlide

Posts: 1246
Joined: 11/25/2005
From: Maryland
Status: offline

I have no idea why the government is involved in bailing out anybody. It is not their job. I guess the government has messed the economy up enough, it figures it has to try and fix it. Of course politicians will take credit if it gets fixed, while they blame the past politicians for messing it up in the first place. They forget they were part of the past politicians. Hey just bail everyone out, why the big companies only. Banks and automakers get the money shoved at them, a Mom and Pop grocery store is just out of luck in hard times, and will have to close.

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(in reply to SteelofUtah)

Post #: 9

RE: What Do You See In the Near Future? - 4/22/2009 10:45:52 AM

pahunkboy

Posts: 33061
Joined: 2/26/2006
From: Central Pennsylvania
Status: offline

Steel- this lines up with what Bob Chapman says. (my hero)

The economy will see a small bounce- and things will seem better. Chapman also says that we are past the point of no return. Meaning- we have to bail out now. That it collapses no matter what. He claims that much of the stimulous will kick in just in time for midterm elections.

He says the EU will dissolve.

People on Wall street and in mainstream news wont have a job if they tell us the real deal.

He says the "amero" will be skipped- right to a one world digital currency- supposedly back by gold. (but not really)

He said they are trying to get the countries to fall all at once.

Appliances in Europe marked down 35%.

I am happy...because I learned thru the grapevine my white trash neighbor is moving. Gold and silver are the only real assets. The market is rigged and these are the buy of a lifetime!!!

I have secured my future as I own physical silver and gold. So I am not too worried about all of it.

Your professor friend is correct. Also- they too can lose their job if they dont tow the line of the official version of reality.Like anything in life- know when to speak and when to hold your peice. Best way to live.

(in reply to SteelofUtah)

Post #: 10

RE: What Do You See In the Near Future? - 4/22/2009 10:51:29 AM

pahunkboy

Posts: 33061
Joined: 2/26/2006
From: Central Pennsylvania
Status: offline

oh- and people rioting in the streets and such- wont solve a thing. When a man hasn't eaten in a week and his family is hungry as well- all the protesting in the world wont fix that.

On the flip side is people will waken to be humble- and down to earth. The illusions of life will be less. People now all worried that the govt will come and take the guns. I doubt it. IMO a virus will be unleashed. Lots of people will be sick.

Weather it is done by design or not- we are overdue for a major pandemic.

Lastly- the elite in their grand plan want to wipe out 90% of the earths population. Bringing it down to 500,000,000. Google that and see for yourself.

(in reply to pahunkboy)

Post #: 11

RE: What Do You See In the Near Future? - 4/22/2009 10:59:38 AM

FullCircle

Posts: 5713
Joined: 11/24/2005
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: pahunkboy
He says the EU will dissolve.

quote:

He says the "amero" will be skipped- right to a one world digital currency- supposedly back by gold. (but not really)

How do you conciliate the above two positions: one states globalisation will reduce and the other states it will increase. It is easier to vote a single world currency in if few institutions are able to vote.

quote:

He said they are trying to get the countries to fall all at once.

Appliances in Europe marked down 35%.

Can't wait.....I've had this current combo fridge freezer/toaster thing far too long it's about time I could afford a DVBluRayD that also does toast.

quote:

Gold and silver are the only real assets. The market is rigged and these are the buy of a lifetime!!!

Only if James Bond can prevent Gold finger from contaminating it all with radiation.

quote:

I have secured my future as I own physical silver and gold. So I am not too worried about all of it.

Not very convenient for carrying around that kind of thing though, what you'll need is a secure location to hold it such as a bank and then that bank can give you a paper receipt (let us for argument sake call this receipt money, duh!)

quote:

Your professor friend is correct. Also- they too can lose their job if they dont tow the line of the official version of reality.Like anything in life- know when to speak and when to hold your peice. Best way to live.

My grandpa used to say it is better to hold something whole than a piece of it

_____________________________

∞ ﮒuקּƹɼ ƾɛϰưϫԼ Ƨωιϯϲћ.

(in reply to pahunkboy)

Post #: 12

RE: What Do You See In the Near Future? - 4/22/2009 12:13:04 PM

Termyn8or

Posts: 18681
Joined: 11/12/2005
Status: offline

FR

I think we will see more renters rather than buyers for some time. Credit will be tight, hampering sales of most big ticket items. I think in time the gov is going to figure out a way to rent out all these foreclosed houses, but the proceeds will be but a drop in the bucket.

If someone doesn't get on the task of getting the manufacturing base back, we will have another failure. However the solution is not easy, you are fighting treaties that make things unfair, especially in light of the general wage disparity. House values will increase to more realisic values, but the bubble will never be that big again.

Unfortunately because of the bailout, the same mistakes will be made, only not as bad. Remember that loose credit = inflation. Essentials will be more costly, reducing the amount of disposable income people have. Eventually this will hit the entertainment industy which is quite overgrown in the first place. In some ways I don't see these hard times as being all that bad. People will have some time on their hands, and some may actually put it to good use.

In other words it is this coming strife which will get people straightened out. With any luck quite a contigent of them might just recognize the value from the trash. By necessity they will have to wise up. Ever meet someone who went through the last depression ? I have, they are all old now but most of them abhor waste. Some won't throw anything out. There will be more people like that, and our society will depend less on disposables, however it will be harder to find durable goods, we just don't make much of them anymore. This may turn into an opportunity for some. Fortunes are made in times like these.

The market will change, I thought and still maintain that the DJIA will stabilize around five grand. Retirees will be hurt, and they as well as others will learn some hard lessons. The fact that we have been living beyond our means will become apparent to some, more than those who are aware of the fact now.

Older cars will become more expensive, and new cars will drop in price. Million dollar mansions will be had for half of that, while $20,000 dumps will cost more. Average people will have less square footage, and even the more heeled will have less land. If governemt plans go along the lines which have been set, the major jobs will be in new energy saving technology, but those gains will have to be fought for. This of course will result in some support of the service sector, but not enough.

There will be another crash, mainly because they went against logic and bailed out a bunch of dinosaurs. They should've let the chips fall this time, because next time will be worse. But for whom ?

The new cash cows will be in energy technology and such, generators and things like that. They are already out there touting non-hybrid seeds so people can grow their own food. (modern seeds sold today are altered to not reproduce, so every year you have to go buy seeds)

Water could become a big problem in certain areas of the country, and that is a toughy to deal with. Even some farms will be unable to get enough water, unless in say the midwest, people take to building small aquifers to supply their crops. Food prices will rise.

All in all, the only good thing to come out of all of this is that more people will learn not to waste. We throw out enough food to feed a small country. People will revert to older ways. Reconstituting leftovers and such, keeping the bread in the fridge, using that leftover pot roast for stew or soup, things like that.

That which does not kill us makes us stronger. Some will adapt, and that is the only good thing I can see coming out of the path we've been on which brought us to this point in history. Hopefully we will make history, not end it.

T

(in reply to FullCircle)

Post #: 13

RE: What Do You See In the Near Future? - 4/22/2009 2:03:12 PM

Crush

Posts: 1031
Status: offline

I see consumption of alcohol increasing over the next few years. And maybe pot.

I also see an increase in night clubs, as people try to get away for a while inexpensively. (My friend's business already seeing an increase in lighting orders from them.)

I see more gardens. More bankruptcies. More people enlisting in the armed services.

More crime. More violence, both because of and a reaction to more crime.

I see businesses failing that rely on people being in a spending mood...travel, entertainment, the arts, etc.

I see more people going back to "school" because they can't do anything else.

More gambling, as people become desperate to take a chance to get out of their situations.

More religion, as people look for answers somewhere and "religious leaders" profit from this emptiness.

I also expect more restrictions to freedom.

I anticipate an increase in second hand shopping..flea markets, etc.

Any light? Yeah, I expect some people will profit (not just the religious leaders) and others who find a way to fill needs.

And of course, I expect it to all work out, eventually.....

_____________________________

"In religion and politics, people's beliefs and convictions are in almost every case gotten at second hand, and without examination." -- Mark Twain

(in reply to Termyn8or)

Post #: 14

RE: What Do You See In the Near Future? - 4/22/2009 3:14:36 PM

pahunkboy

Posts: 33061
Joined: 2/26/2006
From: Central Pennsylvania
Status: offline

$20,000 dumps will cost more. /snip (term wrote)

Seems true enough. Mom and my brother want me to move into a smaller place. But that wont solve anything. Better to use my space more wisely. TO get the place that it could have a mortgage would take money. Then to get another mortgage would take tons of money.

I had to run an errand across the river.   As I drove- I thought- mom left all of this. For what?   She already wants to sell her condo in CHicago. My brother is getting crabbier as times goes on. He is working 7 days a week in an effort to get rich. At his pace tho- he might as well just climb into the grave with my dad.

So - lets suppose I refinanced from 5.5% fixed to 4.5% fixed. I owe abit over 24K. I would save maybe $5 a month.

I am just realistic on what to expect.   As my brother gets crabbier- people will avoid him. My sister is expecting now- so she cant be moving furniture and such. The Realtor recommends mom finish the improvements that she did on the place-but being my brother let her without a kitchen sink for 6 months I doubt that will happen.

I dont know why people cant just be happy.   I hate to move and if it is up to me- I will never move again. I am glad the trashy neighbor is moving. I am temp housing a cat- that Jim is giving to Jenny. I hope it kills the mouse that is loose.

We should be ok for 2 years- beyond that when it all goes down for the last time- who knows.

http://www.brasschecktv.com/page/411.html    --- here is a vid on the S and L crises

(in reply to Crush)

Post #: 15

RE: What Do You See In the Near Future? - 4/22/2009 3:19:10 PM

DemonKia

Posts: 5521
Joined: 10/13/2007
From: Chico, Nor-Cali
Status: offline

Peak Oil

It's the other shoe waiting to drop, even if you have no clue what it is, or think you know & scoff . . . . .

For those going, huh? Peak oil is the observation that there is a finite amount of petroleum oil in the Earth's crust, & that the peak of extraction occurs at roughly the point when half of the total has been consumed, & that thereafter, production inevitably declines . . . . . .

US oil production peaked in the early 1970's & has been in decline since, a historical fact. The emerging consensus of the (*gasp*) cognoscenti is that global peak production for petroleum in general happened between 2004 & 2008, & that the global peak in 'light, sweet crude' (the easiest oil to extract & refine) probably occurred around 1997 . . . . . . .

You may observe this hard geological fact by googling cumulative petroleum production & perusing charts for yourself to see this. From The Oil Drum is this one.

The following articles from The Oil Drum are a good place to start in understanding the connection between peak petroleum & our financial systems:

Peak Oil and the Financial Markets: A Forecast for 2008

Peak Oil and the Financial Markets: A Forecast for 2008--July 31 Update

They were written by my fave author posting to that site, Gail the Actuary

I'll sum up her basic thesis, tho', for the short-attention-spanned: since none in the financial world are embracing the reality of peak oil, it's risks are not being 'priced' into all the projections & calculations . .... . That is, that the 'global financial risk' caused by us starting to slide down the slope of declining oil production is not being 'adequately priced into' calculations of future financial stuff . . . . . . .

Ahhh, & if you don't 'believe' in peak oil?

Yay! for you; your misery at change over the next decade will provide oodles of enjoyment for me, but then I'm evil that way . . . .. . I'm already reveling in the pain & wrongness of all those who, a mere 10 years ago, were insisting that oil's 'natural' price was forever gonna be in the $10 or $20 dollar per barrel range . .. . . . (& had endless pseudo-arguments & quasi-evidence for why their belief was more valid . . . . )

I have little interest in arguing with ignorant-&-proud-of-it yahoos, so I don't . .. . . I just wait patiently for time to prove that I can pick the winning end of the argument . . . . . . Hehehehe . . ... It's good to be me . ... . .

& final note:

The current 'economic disaster' is as nothing in the history of human catastrophe . . . . . . If something was gonna knock us back into caves, the black plague or one of the many many far greater cataclysms of history shoulda done it . .. . . . .

I'm an optimist about the future . . . . . I'd bet cold cash that the world of 20 years from now is every bit better than today, just as the world of today is way way way better than the world I knew 20 years ago . . . . . ..

(Well, for all the not-old, not-male, not-white, not-privileged-&-wealthy types; the 20th century was a tough century for the older, whiter, maler, more privileged & wealthy types, but I regularly have a hard time working up a whole lotta sympathy for that whine . . . . . . . Another one of those I'm-evil-that-way things . . . . . .)

Cheers!

_____________________________

Snarko ergo sum.

The Verbossinator

(in reply to CatdeMedici)

Post #: 16

RE: What Do You See In the Near Future? - 4/22/2009 4:12:41 PM

popeye1250

Posts: 18104
Joined: 1/27/2006
From: New Hampshire
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: SteelofUtah

A good friend and Economy Professor at UNLV explained what the bailout will do and why it is a bad idea and why most economy professors have not be asked to be on the news.

The Bailout regardless of misuse will inflate the economy briefly and everyone will be happy and shiny again. For about 1 to 2 years and then there will be a little fall and then back up again as the money that was spent gets re-distributed naturally again. Then around year 4 to 6 there is a MAJOR problem. All the money has been evened out and returned to the market and yet we are now paying taxes to cover the bailout so prices go up to cover the expence but there is no relief to bring anything back down again and you are stuck with the inability to do another bailout and now the companies that we saved before can't get another bailout and fail ANYWAY because they were never supposed to survive the first time.

Bailouts are BAD for the economy because the economy never actually sees much of the money. It just covers bad decisions already made, no money gets but back into the economic stream we just cover money that wasn't there or needed to be there in order to keep something from dying.

The Bailout was a BAD BAD MOVE, and no one will see the reality of how bad until like has already been said the end of the term of the one who will be determined as being responsible for it. I believe in this next electioon you will see more Independent Runners and by the end of Obama's Run you will see an Independent elected President. Most likely from a Constitutionalist Party or something Similar.

That is my Prediction. And yes that is NEAR future because the actions of our goverment today will be felt for 20 to 40 years later. We won't even start to see the ramifications of what this Bailout has caused until long after Obama is gone from office be it 4 or 8 years.

Seriously the Economy is not effected in the daily aspect it is effected in the Yearly one.

A Small splash can still sause a ripple far from where it started, the bigger the splash the farther and longer the ripples will be seen.

Steel

The best way to get out of $10 Trillion in debt is through a Bankruptcy.
You simply cannot continue to spend money you do not have without becomming bankrupt.
That's what all these companies should be doing anyway, going through the bankruptcy courts, getting re-structured or getting dissolved and selling assets.

_____________________________

"But Your Honor, this is not a Jury of my Peers, these people are all decent, honest, law-abiding citizens!"

(in reply to SteelofUtah)

Post #: 17

RE: What Do You See In the Near Future? - 4/22/2009 6:12:45 PM

Irishknight

Posts: 2016
Joined: 9/30/2007
Status: offline

In the near future I see me putting on my socks, going to work, falling asleep at work and having pornographic dreams about kittin in a Catholic school girl outfit. I think I've said too much.

_____________________________

What man is a man who does not make his world better?

Soldiers died for your right to be ungrateful.

(in reply to popeye1250)

Post #: 18

RE: What Do You See In the Near Future? - 4/22/2009 6:14:04 PM

kittinSol

Posts: 16926
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Irishknight

In the near future I see me putting on my socks, going to work, falling asleep at work and having pornographic dreams about kittin in a Catholic school girl outfit. I think I've said too much.

No, please tell us more

.

_____________________________

(in reply to Irishknight)

Post #: 19

RE: What Do You See In the Near Future? - 4/22/2009 7:11:40 PM

servantforuse

Posts: 6363
Joined: 3/8/2006
Status: offline

I see the economy improving in the next six months. It was overblown anyway because of the election year. A little proof : The Milwaukee Brewers sold their 2,000,000th. ticket for the 2009 season on April 19th. This is the earliest date ever that that many tickets have been sold. The press might have you believe that were all in bread lines. In Milwaukee we will be in a long beer line.

(in reply to kittinSol)

Post #: 20

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