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RE: Yikes! Obama's approval ratings still up. - 6/5/2009 9:14:07 PM   
Thadius


Posts: 5091
Joined: 10/11/2005
Status: offline 		Indeed, but as I noted in an earlier post... those numbers will ebb and flow as this first year passes.  The real numbers to pay attention to, at least in my eyes are after the mid terms.



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When the character of a man is not clear to you, look at his friends." ~ Japanese Proverb

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RE: Yikes! Obama's approval ratings still up. - 6/5/2009 9:34:20 PM   
samboct


Posts: 1817
Joined: 1/17/2007
Status: offline 		Actually, poll numbers don't really do a lot for me.  Historically, some of the presidents who had some lasting impact had terrible poll numbers- such as Abraham Lincoln.  His predecessor (sp?) Buchanan didn't do very much for the country, but people didn't realize a civil war was imminent- and there was a lot of faith that most Southerners wanted to stay in the Union- it was just a few loudmouths causing the trouble.  Plus, the generals Lincoln had at the start were pretty awful- took awhile to get Grant in.

Truman is another president who's polling numbers were awful- remember the Chicago Trib headline of "Dewey Wins!"  Yet, Truman did a great job of walking a tightrope in Europe, and transitioned the country to supporting Europe rather than trying to withdraw- along with containing the Soviets.

Reagan's poll numbers looked pretty awful up front, and then began to improve, even though the country was going down the tubes.  I trace most of the current problems to Reagan's fiscal policies-such as increasing the national debt by over an order of magnitude- quite a trick without a war.

Obama has the possibility of going down as a great president-because he's faced with such awful problems.  Typically, this country really splits down the middle, only uniting during a catastrophic event such as the attack on Pearl Harbor or 9/11.  Assuming that Obama breaks our foreign oil dependency, manages to stop the coal lobby from squandering resources on idiotic schemes such as carbon sequestration, and keeps optimism up that the economy will improve- he's probably doing the best that anyone could.  But if there's a major crunch now, and the economy really heads south with massive unemployment, then he might not get another term.  Or he could get shot-which would be a damn shame.

Sam

(in reply to Thadius)
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RE: Yikes! Obama's approval ratings still up. - 6/6/2009 6:47:19 AM   
CruelNUnsual


Posts: 624
Joined: 9/28/2008
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: DomKen

Well I goofed. It appears I was looking at a cached page for the Rasmussen poll and saw only the 6/4 numbers as an examination of the numbers I provided would show.

So I guess that puts a lie to my never admitting an error.



so you "saw the 6/4" numbers, which are pretty much the same as the 6/5 numbers, and still made the statement

"(and has never had the strongly approve strongly disapprove numbers that you claim) ".

(in reply to DomKen)
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RE: Yikes! Obama's approval ratings still up. - 6/6/2009 6:49:10 AM   
CruelNUnsual


Posts: 624
Joined: 9/28/2008
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Thadius

Indeed, but as I noted in an earlier post... those numbers will ebb and flow as this first year passes.  The real numbers to pay attention to, at least in my eyes are after the mid terms.




Yes, and given the current direction they will hopefully restore some checks and balances to a runaway Congress/Administration .

Another number to pay attention to is NJ Governor. If Christie can maintain his lead there perhaps the tied-for-the-most-corrupt government in the country can begin to be dismantled.

< Message edited by CruelNUnsual -- 6/6/2009 6:58:12 AM >

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RE: Yikes! Obama's approval ratings still up. - 6/6/2009 6:52:34 AM   
MarsBonfire


Posts: 1034
Joined: 3/6/2005
Status: offline 		Or, if you'd rather... let's compare and contrast Obama's numbers with those of the republicans in congress.... I won't bother posting anything on them myself (everyone will just assume I'm cherry picking numbers anyway....)

Which begs the question: can poll numbers go into negative integers?

(in reply to samboct)
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RE: Yikes! Obama's approval ratings still up. - 6/6/2009 6:55:38 AM   
CruelNUnsual


Posts: 624
Joined: 9/28/2008
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: MarsBonfire

Or, if you'd rather... let's compare and contrast Obama's numbers with those of the republicans in congress.... I won't bother posting anything on them myself (everyone will just assume I'm cherry picking numbers anyway....)

Which begs the question: can poll numbers go into negative integers?


Nawwwww, stating "republicans in congress" could never be cherry picking, despite congress being heavily Democrat and having the lowest approval ratings of all time.

Hint: the party in power always has higher approval ratings, because people rate their own representatives highly even when they think overall a poor job is being done. thats why theres rarely large movements despite poor overall ratings.

< Message edited by CruelNUnsual -- 6/6/2009 7:01:37 AM >

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RE: Yikes! Obama's approval ratings still up. - 6/6/2009 7:05:54 AM   
Cagey18


Posts: 662
Joined: 9/7/2008
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quote:

ORIGINAL: MarsBonfire
Which begs the question: can poll numbers go into negative integers?

I remember one poll after Katrina, of Bush's approval ratings among black people.  IIRC he had a 2% approval, with a 4% margin of error. Which could be interpreted (tongue in cheek) that the approval was as low as -2%.

(in reply to MarsBonfire)
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RE: Yikes! Obama's approval ratings still up. - 6/6/2009 10:01:30 AM   
OrionTheWolf


Posts: 7803
Joined: 10/11/2006
Status: offline 		Why just the republicans? Congress works as a whole. This is not a one party system. Congress either works well or it does not. Making it a partisan thing, just clouds the water and causes more problems. Is that what you want to do? Wouldn't it be better to get Dems and Reps to work together, rather than against each other?

Edited to add: The highest approval ratings for congress in the past few years was the first quarter of 2007.

Though I do not like him, Bush's approval rating was in the high 60's to low 70's in 2001. Goes to show what the first year or two polls mean.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/in_depth/6038436.stm


quote:

ORIGINAL: MarsBonfire

Or, if you'd rather... let's compare and contrast Obama's numbers with those of the republicans in congress.... I won't bother posting anything on them myself (everyone will just assume I'm cherry picking numbers anyway....)

Which begs the question: can poll numbers go into negative integers?


< Message edited by OrionTheWolf -- 6/6/2009 10:17:49 AM >

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Profile   Post #: 48
RE: Yikes! Obama's approval ratings still up. - 6/6/2009 10:35:21 AM   
MarsBonfire


Posts: 1034
Joined: 3/6/2005
Status: offline 		Or at least it shows that the nation will rally around ANYONE in a time of crisis. ( Americans wonder why/how the Nazis came to power in Germany, after so many years of being a ridiculous "fringe" group...)

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RE: Yikes! Obama's approval ratings still up. - 6/6/2009 10:42:41 AM   
Racquelle


Posts: 600
Joined: 4/21/2008
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quote:

ORIGINAL: MarsBonfire Or at least it shows that the nation will rally around ANYONE in a time of crisis.


Yes, I think we feel a strong need to rally.  Obama is hardly Hitler, however.  And I think we were more in danger of silencing the dissenters with the last presidency than we are with this one.

The job of pulling ourselves out of this crisis is OUR job, and for once I feel like we have an administration that may allow that to happen.

(in reply to MarsBonfire)
Profile   Post #: 50
RE: Yikes! Obama's approval ratings still up. - 6/6/2009 10:45:39 AM   
OrionTheWolf


Posts: 7803
Joined: 10/11/2006
Status: offline 		And we are not in a time of crisis now?

The point is, as Thadius said, it will be interesting to see what happens after the honeymoon.


quote:

ORIGINAL: MarsBonfire

Or at least it shows that the nation will rally around ANYONE in a time of crisis. ( Americans wonder why/how the Nazis came to power in Germany, after so many years of being a ridiculous "fringe" group...)


_____________________________

When speaking of slaves people always tend to ignore this definition "One who is abjectly subservient to a specified person or influence."

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RE: Yikes! Obama's approval ratings still up. - 6/6/2009 11:11:26 AM   
CruelNUnsual


Posts: 624
Joined: 9/28/2008
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: MarsBonfire

Or at least it shows that the nation will rally around ANYONE in a time of crisis. ( Americans wonder why/how the Nazis came to power in Germany, after so many years of being a ridiculous "fringe" group...)


the Nazis came to power through violence and intimidation.

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RE: Yikes! Obama's approval ratings still up. - 6/6/2009 12:03:40 PM   
ThatDamnedPanda


Posts: 6060
Joined: 1/26/2009
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Racquelle

quote:

ORIGINAL: MarsBonfire Or at least it shows that the nation will rally around ANYONE in a time of crisis.


Yes, I think we feel a strong need to rally.  Obama is hardly Hitler, however.  And I think we were more in danger of silencing the dissenters with the last presidency than we are with this one.

The job of pulling ourselves out of this crisis is OUR job, and for once I feel like we have an administration that may allow that to happen.



Mars was referring to the previous infestation, Raquelle, not Obama. Mars is a good guy; he's on our side!

< Message edited by ThatDamnedPanda -- 6/6/2009 12:04:28 PM >

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RE: Yikes! Obama's approval ratings still up. - 6/6/2009 2:36:49 PM   
Sanity


Posts: 22039
Joined: 6/14/2006
From: Nampa, Idaho USA
Status: offline
Still, her point was valid. Your white knight in shining armour did suggest that Obama is riding the same sort of popularity wave that Adolf Hitler rode...

Don't blame me though, I didn't say it. Your own guy said it. You even claimed him...


quote:

ORIGINAL: ThatDamnedPanda

quote:

ORIGINAL: Racquelle

quote:

ORIGINAL: MarsBonfire Or at least it shows that the nation will rally around ANYONE in a time of crisis.


Yes, I think we feel a strong need to rally.  Obama is hardly Hitler, however.  And I think we were more in danger of silencing the dissenters with the last presidency than we are with this one.

The job of pulling ourselves out of this crisis is OUR job, and for once I feel like we have an administration that may allow that to happen.



Mars was referring to the previous infestation, Raquelle, not Obama. Mars is a good guy; he's on our side!


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RE: Yikes! Obama's approval ratings still up. - 6/6/2009 7:56:31 PM   
MarsBonfire


Posts: 1034
Joined: 3/6/2005
Status: offline 		Yes. I was referring to Bush. As you may recall, his numbers were heading straight for the crapper in late August. After he ignored the daily intel report on the upcoming terrorist attack using planes, and 9/11 came, his numbers shot up stratosphereically! At that point, he and dark lord Cheaney had a political blank check put in front of them. And look at how they used it: they lied about an Iraq/AQ connection, they lied about yellowcake from Niger, they wiretapped everyone, they started a torture program, they drained the treasury, they awarded huge contracts to their old buddies in Haliburton... they fucked over the US.

And all they had to do was exploit 3,000 innocent American dead, to push foreward their own agenda.

(in reply to Sanity)
Profile   Post #: 55
RE: Yikes! Obama's approval ratings still up. - 6/7/2009 9:02:25 AM   
DomImus


Posts: 2004
Joined: 3/17/2009
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Thadius
Actually for a fair comparison, one might want to compare Bush's ratings in his first term (or better yet his first couple of years), not the end of his presidency.


Don't confuse them with facts, Thadius.

http://www.hist.umn.edu/~ruggles/Approval.htm

As we can see Bush was in the mid-50% approval rating from the time he took office until 9/11 when he was in the high 80's percentile.

I haven't seen Obama eclipse 60%

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123690358175013837.html



(in reply to Thadius)
Profile   Post #: 56
RE: Yikes! Obama's approval ratings still up. - 6/7/2009 9:42:51 AM   
rulemylife


Posts: 14614
Joined: 8/23/2004
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: DomImus


Don't confuse them with facts, Thadius.

http://www.hist.umn.edu/~ruggles/Approval.htm

As we can see Bush was in the mid-50% approval rating from the time he took office until 9/11 when he was in the high 80's percentile.

I haven't seen Obama eclipse 60%

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123690358175013837.html



Exactly what facts are you talking about other than the ones you are ignoring?

You haven't seen Obama eclipse 60%?

May I suggest you read the links in the original post you are responding to?

Five of six polls in the last month have him over 60% with the sixth at 59%.

Your own link shows every poll in the corresponding time period to have Bush between roughly 45% and 52%  in the same time period in 2001.  And I say roughly because it was such a poorly constructed and difficult to read graph.  But other sources give the same numbers.

The WSJ opinion article is almost too funny to even address seriously.

Polling data show that Mr. Obama's approval rating is dropping and is below where George W. Bush was in an analogous period in 2001. Rasmussen Reports data shows that Mr. Obama's net presidential approval rating -- which is calculated by subtracting the number who strongly disapprove from the number who strongly approve -- is just six, his lowest rating to date.

Net presidential approval rating?

Well, you have to give Rasmussen points for creativity.

Incidentally, aren't polls supposed to be objective and unbiased? 

How can that be true when he is constantly writing articles like the one you cited manipulating his own polling data to push his conservative agenda?

< Message edited by rulemylife -- 6/7/2009 9:47:00 AM >

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RE: Yikes! Obama's approval ratings still up. - 6/7/2009 9:57:50 AM   
Thadius


Posts: 5091
Joined: 10/11/2005
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: rulemylife


Incidentally, aren't polls supposed to be objective and unbiased? 

How can that be true when he is constantly writing article like the one you cited manipulating his own polling data to push his conservative agenda?



They are supposed to be objective and unbiased, but haven't been for as long as I can remember.  Be it the way in which the questions are worded, or the way the answers are asked for, there is a science to the manipulation.  Just like with any other statistical data, it can be spun or presented in a way to suggest supporting polar opposite points of view.

Take the example question...

Would you prefer to go:
A. Home
B. Disney World
C. Grandma's house
D. School

Depending on the demographic and where the question is asked, I would bet that you could see results that suggest (or could be stated as) 95% of folks don't want to go home, or 95% of those polled would not want to go to school, or if those polled were already at grandma's perhaps up to 95% picking one of the other places (which could then imply that they didn't want to go see grandma).

I just remember to take polls for what they are worth, a quick and not very accurate snapshot of what those that were polled were feeling at that given point in time.  In other words, I am more interested in the opinions of the woman handing me a beer, or the person that is shaving my head, than that of complete strangers who may or may not have understood the questions...



_____________________________

When the character of a man is not clear to you, look at his friends." ~ Japanese Proverb

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RE: Yikes! Obama's approval ratings still up. - 6/7/2009 10:20:53 AM   
Kirata


Posts: 15477
Joined: 2/11/2006
From: USA
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: rulemylife

Net presidential approval rating? Well, you have to give Rasmussen points for creativity.

The polling between January 21 and June 6 shows that during this period the percentage of those who strongly approve has dropped from 44% to 35%, and the percentage of those who strongly disapprove has doubled, from 16% to 32%. There is no creative wizardry there. It is in agreement with the totals, which show total approval dropping from 65% to 53%, while total disapproval has risen from 30% to 46%. I'm no fan of touting poll results individually, but this is a clear trend across months of data. And while I freely grant it could swing back, only time will tell. So far, Obama's policies are burning up capital in more ways than one. Europe has largely rejected the approach of solving what is fundamentally a debt problem with more debt, and Obama's undeniable personal popularity will not move the currency markets. I think your dismissive ridicule is misplaced.

K.






< Message edited by Kirata -- 6/7/2009 10:24:26 AM >

(in reply to rulemylife)
Profile   Post #: 59
RE: Yikes! Obama's approval ratings still up. - 6/7/2009 10:32:22 AM   
rulemylife


Posts: 14614
Joined: 8/23/2004
Status: offline 		I agree completely, but at least most polls make a valid attempt at objectivity.

Rasmussen's polls have often been questioned for exactly what you stated here.



(in reply to Thadius)
Profile   Post #: 60
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