Ialdabaoth
Posts: 1073
Joined: 5/4/2008
From: Tempe, AZ
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quote:
ORIGINAL: NihilusZero
2) Reality versus odds: We've both had discussions about whether what we specifically seek individually is something that is likely to be found. I think using the term "idealism" here is misapplied because it's being use one-dimensionally; just as a reflection of the likelihood of something. In this case, if I can expect most people to not place as stringent a value on honoring their word, my refusal to settle until I encouter one of the minority percentage isn't any more idealism than not involving yourself with the first person who offers (for any other preferencial reason).
Well, here's the thing, though. You're factoring the rarity of people who honor their word in the sense you need into your cost-benefit analysis, but you don't seem to be factoring in the difficulty inherent in detecting deceptions. Let's break this down into a game-theory grid:
Let's say, out of our population, 1% will always keep their word, in the sense of that concept that you mean. We'll call these people "Honorable".
Let's say, out of our population, 10% refuse to give their word in general, because they don't want to get involved in the whole 'honor' game. We'll call these people "Honest".
And then let's say that 70% of the population gives their word all the time, but are clearly talking out their ass. We'll call these people "Flakes".
And then, finally, there's another 19% of the population who give their word, who are good at seeming turstworthy, are good at garnering trust, and good at covering up when they've betrayed their word, such that half the time if they betray you, you're left wondering whether you're the one who betrayed them. We'll call these people "Smooth".
Now. You're wondering through life, and you find someone that you otherwise want - all the physical and emotional aspects click. You like them, they like you. Let's say that, for the subset of humans that this could happen for, the above ratios (1%/10%/70%/19%) hold. What happens if you choose to pursue further?
Now, in order to evaluate this properly, we need to define our resources. Really, the primary resources we're talking about here are time (measured here in weeks), money (measured here in dollars), and emotional angst (measured here in miliReznors).
Well, 7 out of 10 times, they're Flakes. You get involved, and a few weeks in you discover their Flakiness and decide to call it off. You've invested 2-3 weeks in finding out they were Flaky (let's say 2), 70% of the time, for an average waste of 2.5 weeks. Assuming 3 dates per week, at roughly $20 per date (gas, prep and entertainment included), that works out to roughly $150. During this time, you've probably gotten as far as the puppy-love stage, and 2-3 weeks is going to be irritating, so altogether you're going to be blowing somewhere between 25 and 75 mRez on the ordeal - the sort of thing you can generally recoup in a good weekend of laser-tag with your friends followed by knocking back some shots and bitching at length about how flaky the other person was. So, 2.5 weeks, $150, and 50 miliReznors.
Now, 1 out of 10 times, they're Honest. You have two choices here, but I'm going to assume that you don't get involved, as you are explicitly looking for Honorable people, which has a null intersection with the Honest set. (this does not mean that Honorable people are not Honest; just that the set we have labeled 'Honest' is honest about not being honorable.) So, these people waste none of your time, and none of your money, and no miliReznors. Well, that's not technically true - they waste whatever the average amount of time is between opportunities. So really, there's an additional cost, which is identical for all cases - one opportunity. Anyway.
So, you're left with 2 out of 10 times (1 out of 5), in which you have someone who appears Honorable. Now, of these, 1 in 20 is actually Honorable. In which case, you've found what you want! So:
1 in 100 times, you find an Honorable person. You just won the game, and are steadily exchanging dollars for negative miliReznors, for as long as this state lasts.
But 19 in 100 times, you find a Smooth person. On average, let's say it takes 6 months to discover their duplicity (trend analysis indicates that this is a good number for purposes of estimation). So, that's 26 weeks wasted. As far as time, we're going to project out a typical 6-month relationship run, with roughly (5/[W+1]) dates per week, at around $20 + $5*log2(W+1) per date. That works out to ROUGHLY $400 in dates. And then you factor in the communal expenses, condoms, vet visits for cats, "oops I forgot to pay my electric/phone/car payment", shared meals and clothes, toys and games and bondage gear that's pretty well exclusive to this partner, and you're generally looking at another $1,500 or so, plus or minus. So about $2,000. And then there's the angst of finding out that the girl you've been with for the past TWO YEARS was CHEATING with your BEST FRIEND while you WORKED YOUR ASS OFF TO PAY OFF HER DEBTS, THE FUCKING WHOOORE!!! OH! OHHH!!!! ... ahem, one moment.
Sorry, had to banish the ghost of Sam Kinnison.
Right then, as I was saying. The anguish factor is going to increase in amplitude geometrically depending on the duration of the relationship. This leads to a funny interaction between time and anguish. Since time is roughly a logarithmic bell-curve with a median at 6 months, and angst increases at e^wt, hrm... hold on, this requires calculus, I'll be right back.
Okay, it looks like we're averaging about 800 miliReznors per relationship, which is roughly halfway between "life has lost all meaning" and half-hearted 'cry for help' suicide attempts, but generally requires at least 2 months of weekly therapy sessions to really sort out properly.
Factoring that all together, we have (out of 100 tries):
70 x (2.5 weeks, $150, 50 mRez) = 175 weeks, $10,500, 3,500 mRez
10 x (0, 0, 0) = 0, 0, 0
19 x (26 weeks, $2000, 800 mRez) ~= 500 weeks, $38,000, 15,000 mRez
1 WIN
So that's an average opportunity cost of roughly 7 weeks, $400, and just under 200 mRez per attempt to find a truly Honorable person, assuming all the numbers listed above. That's on top of whatever the time between opportunities is; however often you meet people that "click", average that and add it to the 7 weeks, then multiply by 100 to figure out how long you have to put up with this shit. Obviously, every number quoted above was just for illustration purposes; adjusting your own expenditures and probabilities up or down will adjust them in a similar fashion.
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RE: The shelf-life of honoring one's word - 
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