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Ialdabaoth -> RE: OMG...it seems that my open talk policy is coming back to haunt me (8/22/2009 1:04:39 PM)
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Personally? I'm all for both.
The drug reduces the chance of getting HPV by 98%. That's nothing to sneeze at.
Safer sex (i.e., condoms) reduce the chance of getting HPV by 70%. This is also nothing to sneeze at.
Taken together, that's [1 - (1 - 0.98) x (1- 0.70)] x 100 = a 99.4% reduction in risk.
That means that for every FIVE HUNDRED PEOPLE that would have got HPV without safer sex + vaccine, THREE get HPV with safer sex + vaccine.
Now, let's take the risk all the way down to the bottom.
First fact: Seventy percent of cervical cancers are caused by two known types of HPV.
Second fact: over Eleven thousand women get cervical cancer each year, and nearly four thousand die of it.
(EDIT: GAH, maths. Fixing)
Now, this vaccine is 98% effective in treating the two types of HPV that cause 70% of all cervical cancers. That's 2,800 deaths and another 5,000 survivors.
If we just rely on the vaccine, we save (0.98 x 2800) = 2,744 lives. We also save another (0.98 x 5000) = 4,900 women from having to live through cervical cancer and the very unpleasant treatments required to live through it.
If we just rely on condoms, we save (0.70 x 2800) = almost 2,000 lives. We also save another (0.70 x 5000) = 3,500 people from having to deal with cancer.
If we just rely on abstinence, we save... no lives.
If we rely on condoms and the vaccine, we save roughly (0.996 x 2,800) = 2,788 lives. We also save another (0.996 x 5,000) = 4,980 people (roughly) from chemotherapy, scarring, fear and pain.
Now, I will grant the potential that HPV exists as a punishment from God, to rot out the filthy cunts of those debased whores who dare to pleasure themselves with menfolk (or who-knows-what-else, the filthy faggots) before engaging in the sanctity of God's holy marriage; praise be to the benevolent God who inflicts misery and suffering upon the workers of iniquity, etc. etc.
No, wait, I won't. People are dying, and in a particularly brutal way. Torture and death and disease should never be used as a deterrent. The simple, unequivocal fact is that we have nearly three thousand lives - and drastically improve another five thousand - trumps ANY moral argument that could be made.
1. FIRST, give kids the shot. You've just taken care of 98% of the problem.
2. THEN, teach kids to use a condom, and the value of ALWAYS USING A CONDOM IF THEY HAVE SEX. You've just taken care of another 1.4% of the problem.
3. THEN, talk to them about abstinence. If they listen, you've taken are of the last 0.6% of the problem. But if they don't, 0.6% of a risk is far better than 100% of a risk, isn't it?
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