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The End of Suburbia - 52 minute documentary on peak oil - 8/23/2009 5:31:14 PM   
Brain


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Status: offline 		The End of Suburbia - 52 minute documentary on peak oil

Global oil peak and the inevitable decline of fossil fuels are upon us now, Are today's suburbs destined to become the slums of the future? This is a short version of "The End of Suburbia: Oil Depletion and the Collapse of The American Dream", a documentary about the end of the age of cheap oil.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q3uvzcY2Xug

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RE: The End of Suburbia - 52 minute documentary on peak... - 8/23/2009 10:12:59 PM   
subrob1967


Posts: 4591
Joined: 9/13/2004
Status: offline 		You actually believe this?

Five new oil fields found

Mexico discovers huge oil field

New oil field discovered in Egypt

North Dakota

Uganda

Funny how we've reached peak, but yet keep finding these massive new oil fields, isn't it?

(in reply to Brain)
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RE: The End of Suburbia - 52 minute documentary on peak... - 8/23/2009 10:34:58 PM   
rightwinghippie


Posts: 276
Joined: 8/12/2009
Status: offline 		Except its not oil, that matters, but energy. There are a lot of positive benefits to shifting away from oil, on a rational, market recognizing pace. We will never run out of oil, but we will quit using it for the most part.

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RE: The End of Suburbia - 52 minute documentary on peak... - 8/23/2009 11:17:14 PM   
Brain


Posts: 3792
Joined: 2/14/2007
Status: offline 		I believe eventually we are going to run out of oil. When it is going to happen nobody knows for sure, some people think it will be soon and it appears some think it will never happen. And if it happens much later there is the question of global warming, and please do not tell me you don’t think global warming is real.

It doesn’t make sense to keep using oil when there are other forms of clean energy available like solar or wind. Improvements are being made, especially solar in Israel, they are doing great things with it, to get more energy from these sources and they can and will replace oil. It doesn’t make sense environmentally or health wise to keep using oil. It’s dirty and it pollutes.

Even if we could keep using oil indefinitely why would you want to?

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RE: The End of Suburbia - 52 minute documentary on peak... - 8/23/2009 11:27:09 PM   
ThatDamnedPanda


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quote:

ORIGINAL: subrob1967

You actually believe this?

Five new oil fields found

Mexico discovers huge oil field

New oil field discovered in Egypt

North Dakota

Uganda

Funny how we've reached peak, but yet keep finding these massive new oil fields, isn't it?


You're not serious, are you? Because that's utterly meaningless. We pump around 30 billion barrels of oil per year, but only discover about 10 billion barrels of new oil each year. Do you really not understand that if we're using more oil each year than we are finding, that means we are running out? The math could not be more simple; please just take a few minutes to work it out for yourself.


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RE: The End of Suburbia - 52 minute documentary on peak... - 8/23/2009 11:34:30 PM   
ThatDamnedPanda


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Brain

I believe eventually we are going to run out of oil. When it is going to happen nobody knows for sure, some people think it will be soon and it appears some think it will never happen.



That's amazing, isn't it? Trying to have a conversation about peak oil with someone who doesn't believe we're ever going to run out is like trying to discuss astronomy with someone who believes the earth is flat. There's just nothing to discuss, because there's no starting point.

There is absolutely no question whatsoever that we are running out of oil. None. Period. We use 85 million  barrels per day, and there is no more new oil being made. So by definition, every time we burn one barrel of oil we are one barrel closer to running out. The only question is how fast; there's no question that it's happening.


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RE: The End of Suburbia - 52 minute documentary on peak... - 8/23/2009 11:52:03 PM   
subrob1967


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quote:

ORIGINAL: ThatDamnedPanda
That's amazing, isn't it? Trying to have a conversation about peak oil with someone who doesn't believe we're ever going to run out is like trying to discuss astronomy with someone who believes the earth is flat. There's just nothing to discuss, because there's no starting point.

There is absolutely no question whatsoever that we are running out of oil. None. Period. We use 85 million  barrels per day, and there is no more new oil being made. So by definition, every time we burn one barrel of oil we are one barrel closer to running out. The only question is how fast; there's no question that it's happening.




I bet you believe oil comes from the corpses of Dinosaurs too

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RE: The End of Suburbia - 52 minute documentary on peak... - 8/23/2009 11:58:53 PM   
ThatDamnedPanda


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quote:

ORIGINAL: subrob1967


quote:

ORIGINAL: ThatDamnedPanda
That's amazing, isn't it? Trying to have a conversation about peak oil with someone who doesn't believe we're ever going to run out is like trying to discuss astronomy with someone who believes the earth is flat. There's just nothing to discuss, because there's no starting point.

There is absolutely no question whatsoever that we are running out of oil. None. Period. We use 85 million  barrels per day, and there is no more new oil being made. So by definition, every time we burn one barrel of oil we are one barrel closer to running out. The only question is how fast; there's no question that it's happening.




I bet you believe oil comes from the corpses of Dinosaurs too


No, I do not, as a matter of fact. That's a myth.


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RE: The End of Suburbia - 52 minute documentary on peak... - 8/24/2009 12:04:48 AM   
boliver10


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Status: offline 		Well, actually we are not running out of oil.  There are massive amounts of oil available both from known deposits as well as shale etc.

The issue is what will happen with the price based on our ability to actually produce it from sources versus demand.  When the demand/supply curve is lopsided the price could become prohibitive to commute to work.  Such discrepancies will likely be ameliorated by further exploration etc. in the short term bringing the price back to "normal" within a year or so of spikes. REALLY long term (200 years) of course we have a real problem if we can't find alternative energy sources.

A lot of this discussion is not very well considered.   Just like the health care debate: ignorance rules because the most stupid make the loudest noise.

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RE: The End of Suburbia - 52 minute documentary on peak... - 8/24/2009 12:09:36 AM   
ThatDamnedPanda


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quote:

ORIGINAL: boliver10

Well, actually we are not running out of oil.  There are massive amounts of oil available both from known deposits as well as shale etc.


Of course we are. If it is a finite resource - that is, if no more new oil is being created to replace the oil we are using - then of course we are running out. It's just basic arithmetic. A first-grader could work it out in about 8 seconds. Or are you suggesting that new oil is, indeed, somehow being created at a rate equal to or greater than the rate at which we are using it? If so, I'd sure like to hear the details of that.


quote:

ORIGINAL: boliver10
A lot of this discussion is not very well considered.   Just like the health care debate: ignorance rules because the most stupid make the loudest noise.



Funny you should say that. I was just thinking the exact same thing as I read your post.


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RE: The End of Suburbia - 52 minute documentary on peak... - 8/24/2009 9:33:47 AM   
rightwinghippie


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Status: offline 		Nah, I am pretty confident that we will never pump the last gallon out of the ground. And in 200 years a few people will still be able to buy Gasoline to put in thier vintage antique Harleys. Generally it won't be used for much though. Long after people are gone, there will still be oil in the Earth.

Panda, we already have several methods of making synthetic oil. And there are more on the drawing board. Look into the amazing stuff they are doing with algea.

Yes, we will hit a tipping point where oil is not econmically usefull, we will not run out. We will just use a different form of stored (solar) energy at that time.

Actually Panda the math is pretty complicated, including the % of our energy use that is oil, and the rate at which that % is changing(and its not a straight line but a curve). As well as non energy use of oil, and the rate of substitution for non oil products.

To me running out, means there isn't anymore...Out, can't buy it no matter what. As opposed to it is cheaper to use something else, which will certainly happen.


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RE: The End of Suburbia - 52 minute documentary on peak... - 8/24/2009 10:17:13 AM   
servantforuse


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Status: offline 		30 years ago Jimmy Carter said that we were running out of oil. He was also proven wrong. If the democrats and environmentalists would let us drill on our own shores there would be oil forever.

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RE: The End of Suburbia - 52 minute documentary on peak... - 8/24/2009 10:34:25 AM   
ThatDamnedPanda


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quote:

ORIGINAL: servantforuse

30 years ago Jimmy Carter said that we were running out of oil. He was also proven wrong.


No, he wasn't. Again, do the math. What is so complicated about this? A child can figure it out. Let's take it step by step.

1. Oil is a finite resource. There is no new oil being created to replace the oil we are using. We start out with a certain amount of oil, and that's all the oil we are ever going to have.

2. We are using 85 million barrels of it every day. Therefore, that finite supply of oil is getting smaller by 85 million barrels ever day. The amount we use is not being replaced.

3. That means we are running out of oil.

What part of this keeps sailing over all your heads? Can you please explain how you keep using something, never replace it, and still not run out of it? Is this magic oil you're talking about?

Let's try an analogy, and see if that makes it any more clear. Let's say you have a gallon of milk in your refrigerator. Every day, you drink a glass of milk. But you never buy any more milk to replace the milk you drink. Do you not grasp that at some point, you will run out of milk? Or do you just pick up the container of milk every day and say to yourself, "Oh! There's still  milk in the carton. I guess I'm not running out!"?


quote:

ORIGINAL: servantforuse
If the democrats and environmentalists would let us drill on our own shores there would be oil forever.


That's great news. Can you post the numbers, so we can all relax? What is the total US petroleum reserve, please? How many barrels? How long will it last, and what - exactly - is your definition of "forever?"


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RE: The End of Suburbia - 52 minute documentary on peak... - 8/24/2009 10:55:34 AM   
ThatDamnedPanda


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quote:

ORIGINAL: rightwinghippie

Nah, I am pretty confident that we will never pump the last gallon out of the ground. And in 200 years a few people will still be able to buy Gasoline to put in thier vintage antique Harleys. Generally it won't be used for much though. Long after people are gone, there will still be oil in the Earth.

Panda, we already have several methods of making synthetic oil. And there are more on the drawing board. Look into the amazing stuff they are doing with algea.


That's not synthetic oil, those are alternative fuels. We can use those to do many of the same things for which we now use oil, but not all, and the cost of manufacturing those fuels is extremely high. Further R&D will lower the costs, but nobody can confidently predict that these alternative  fuels will ever be a cost-effective solution to petroleum. Your argument comes down to "we may find a solution someday", which is a pretty far cry from "there's really not a problem." You keep using the word "will" in places where the word "may" is supposed to be.


quote:

ORIGINAL: rightwinghippie
Yes, we will hit a tipping point where oil is not econmically usefull, we will not run out. We will just use a different form of stored (solar) energy at that time.

Actually Panda the math is pretty complicated, including the % of our energy use that is oil, and the rate at which that % is changing(and its not a straight line but a curve). As well as non energy use of oil, and the rate of substitution for non oil products.


None of which changes the fact that the world's supply of petroleum is getting smaller every day - it only has to do with the rate at which the supply is diminishing.


quote:

ORIGINAL: rightwinghippie
To me running out, means there isn't anymore...Out, can't buy it no matter what.


So by that definition, if you're driving down the road and look at your gas gauge, and the needle is almost at "E", you're not running out of gas. Because you haven't yet reached the point where "there isn't anymore."  Right? You're not really "running out" until the engine stops.

Is that really the way you think when you're on a road trip? I'm assuming the answer to that is "no", so why do you use that argument here? "Out of oil" and "running out of oil" are two completely different things. If you want to use them interchangeably, be my guest, but it doesn't make a valid argument. Running out of oil is the process that leads to being out of oil, and the result is inevitable as long as we keep using oil.


quote:

ORIGINAL: rightwinghippie
As opposed to it is cheaper to use something else, which will certainly happen.


Certainly? Is that an assertion you can support with data, or is it just an optimistic assumption?


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RE: The End of Suburbia - 52 minute documentary on peak... - 8/24/2009 11:10:58 AM   
kdsub


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Status: offline 		OK I did not watch it...wish you would summarize... 52 minutes of my monitor and computer would be using too much energy to see something I may disagree with.

But from the title I can guess...I, like others, believe oil is but one energy source arising from the sun, the true producer of energy ultimately. When oil’s natural production and our ability to extract it declines other sources will be used, and they are abundant.

The only reason alternative energy sources have not been fully developed today IS the abundance of oil and the structure to deliver it. As oil declines other sources will fill the gap... No need to panic and think up silly scenarios of future Armageddon.

Butch


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RE: The End of Suburbia - 52 minute documentary on peak... - 8/24/2009 12:00:57 PM   
Sanity


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If its the end of suburbia then it's trouble for ghettos as well, because farms don't produce or transport food by magic.

Modern methods are heavily petroelum dependent.


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RE: The End of Suburbia - 52 minute documentary on peak... - 8/24/2009 12:08:45 PM   
ThatDamnedPanda


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quote:

ORIGINAL: kdsub


But from the title I can guess...I, like others, believe oil is but one energy source arising from the sun, the true producer of energy ultimately. When oil’s natural production and our ability to extract it declines other sources will be used, and they are abundant.

The only reason alternative energy sources have not been fully developed today IS the abundance of oil and the structure to deliver it.


A better way of putting that is to say that the abundance of oil and the relative ease of converting it to usable energy makes it the only affordable way of producing fuel.


quote:

ORIGINAL: kdsub
As oil declines other sources will fill the gap... No need to panic and think up silly scenarios of future Armageddon.




Butch, there's nothing silly about it. If you want to talk about silly, this "Oh, there's nothing to worry about because somebody will figure something out someday" business is what's really silly. Nothing personal, but I have to ask - is this really the way you guys make decisions in your daily lives? Is this the way you balance your checkbooks and manage your credit cards? Is this the way you maintain your homes and automobiles? "Ah, hell, there's no need to balance the checkbook, I haven't gotten any overdraft notices yet. Nah, i don't need to change the oil in the car; the engine's still running. I don't need to replace the shingles, the roof's not leaking  yet."

I'm not trying to be insulting, I'm just saying that if I'm correct in assuming the answer to that is "no," I can't understand why you'd apply that way of thinking on this issue. I think you guys need to listen to yourselves, because there's a huge disconnect between your arguments and rational thought.

Remember a couple of years ago, when gas was around 5 bucks a gallon? Remember the enormous impact that had on so many aspects of our lives - the effect it had on transportation costs, industrial production, people's personal finances? Remember that? Take a moment to reflect on that, and then consider what kind of a world we'd be living in if gas, instead of being $5 a gallon, was $50 or $80 a gallon - which is about what it would cost if it were made from algae using today's technology.

If you seriously don't think that would be a problem, then I honestly don't know how to even begin discussing the subject with you. And if the reason you say there's nothing to worry about is because you just assume that someday, somebody will figure out some way to make it as cheap as (or cheaper than) today's fuels, then again -  I don't know where to start with you, because that's just an incredibly naive argument. Brain and I are arguing from known factual data, and you guys are trying to counter that with speculation and uninformed assumptions. There's just no way to even talk to each other.

But then again - if you have some solid reason to believe that at some point, the production costs of alternative fuels will be brought down to a level comparable to the current production costs of petroleum based fuels, then I'd like to hear the data that backs up that assertion. Because right now, there's no human being on this planet who knows how to do that. And until someone does actually figure it out, yes - this is a problem, and an absolutely enormous one. Not recognizing that is what's truly silly.


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RE: The End of Suburbia - 52 minute documentary on peak... - 8/24/2009 12:17:50 PM   
popeye1250


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Status: offline 		"Peak Oil" is a valid discussion however I don't think it will happen for a long time yet.
Two years ago off the coast of Brazil they discovered the "Tapia" oil deposits and just recently another oil field 115 miles off their coast.
Both of them are described as "enourmous." And, people keep forgetting about *Russia.*
There is more oil in Russia than in the entire Middle East and that's just the "known" reserves. And Russia spans 14 differant time zones.

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RE: The End of Suburbia - 52 minute documentary on peak... - 8/24/2009 12:21:31 PM   
Politesub53


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quote:

ORIGINAL: subrob1967

You actually believe this?

Five new oil fields found

Mexico discovers huge oil field

New oil field discovered in Egypt

North Dakota

Uganda

Funny how we've reached peak, but yet keep finding these massive new oil fields, isn't it?

Great Expectations
There is little question that Mexico’s officials
are having a difficult time accepting
the financial sea change that declining
oil revenues implies. The willingness to
grasp at straws is readily apparent. In March
2006, then-Mexican President Vicente Fox
announced the discovery of Noxal 1 - a
“huge” oil field in the deepwater Gulf of
Mexico containing up to 10 billion barrels of
oil. Fox stated: “With Noxal 1 we will begin a
new era of oil exploration in our country.”
The energy community immediately raised
questions about the size of Noxal 1 and
pointed out the field had never been tested.
Subsequent events have indicated Fox’s view
was not based on geological fact. Tests have
been so disappointing that Mexican oil analyst
David Shields has labeled Noxal 1 “a
confirmed failure.”
Given the broad social, economic and political
ramifications of declining oil production,
it is difficult to fault government officials who
hope for the best. Mexico has: (1) used its oil
reserves as collateral for loans, (2) employed
its oil profits to fund social programs, and (3)
spent much of its increased wealth to develop a
growing middle class with rising expectations.
The grim reality of oil production decline,
and the concomitant erosion of oil revenues,
will take some time to filter through

http://www.peakoil.net/files/Cantarell%20Is%20Not%20Mexico%E2%80%99s%20Only%20Oil%20Production%20Problem.pdf

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RE: The End of Suburbia - 52 minute documentary on peak... - 8/24/2009 12:29:40 PM   
rightwinghippie


Posts: 276
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Status: offline 		Ok, Panda you are right, there is no other source of energy, and we are doomed.

All the people that talk about green jobs are full of shit.

There are no alternative sources of energy.

Just stupid, baseless, dangerous, right wing assumptions that society can exist with other sources of energy besides petroluem.


I don't have time to teach you basic economics, and how to read those kinds of charts. But if you look around the cost of petroluem energy is going up (long term). And the cost of alternatives are going down. At some point those lines will cross. Or maybe they won't and we will all die. In fact in many cases they already are. I have your assertions that the cost of oil will keep going up (I agree long term). And that the cost of atlernatives is going down. So I don't see why you are asking me to prove what you have already asserted.

But I will conceed your point. Alternative fuels and thier proponents could be full of shit, and humanity is doomed.
I however disagree.



Name one use of Oil that there is no replacement for, please.

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