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RE: Thoughts on President Obama's Job Summit? - 11/13/2009 9:06:47 AM   
InvisibleBlack


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quote:

ORIGINAL: willbeurdaddy

quote:

ORIGINAL: DomKen

quote:

ORIGINAL: Marc2b
My thoughts on the job summit? It's useless political posturing. To stimulate job growth all we need do is cut taxes.

That's been very throroughly disproven. The Laffer curve has no connection to reality.


You keep repeating this nonsense. Strawmen about the Laffer curve have no connection to reality. THE LAFFER CURVE IS IRREFUTABLE.


Actually, my thesis when I got my degree was on the Laffer Curve and how changes in the tax structure change the level of activity in the economy and the amount of tax revenue collected. The fact of the matter is that in certain situations reducing the marginal tax rate can have a positive effect (and also generate more revenue) and in other situations it can actually have a negative effect. Lowering (or raising) taxes is not a blanket activity that guarantees a single result.

Since in the United States we have a progressive tax system with multiple tax brackets with different rates in them, an across-the-board tax cut (or increase) would give you mixed results as each bracket would likely react differently. It's also good to keep in mind that changes in the tax structure do not have an immediate effect. It takes somewhere around eighteen months at a minimum for them to roll through the economy and I found that in some cases it could take as much as four years. I have no evidence for this but I suspect the speed at which tax changes affect economic activity is highly related to the velocity of money, which is now very low - so it might take even longer.

For a country in a recession (or a Depression) both classic Keynsian theory and modern 'supply side' theory would recommend a reduction of taxes, not as a sole solution but as part of a more comprehensive package. In general, the concept is that when the economy is slowing down the government is supposed to raise spending and lower taxes, and then when it's overheating the government is supposed to reduce spending and raise taxes.

For my own part, right now, I would probably renew the Bush tax cuts next year since a big spike in marginal rates is the last thing you want in a shaky economy and I would look for targeted spending increases in areas I thought would boost core manufacturing and production. I don't think the real answer to a lot of our problems is to be found in fiscal or monetary policy - I think the underlying issue is actually regulatory. For the amount of economic activity in the United States, the financial sector is too large, has too much influence, and has produced far too much debt. Rather than enhancing the rest of the economy, it is draining the rest of economy without producing or creating anything that is contributing to the success of the nation. It needs to be pruned back and the deadwood cut out of it before it causes any more damage.



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RE: Thoughts on President Obama's Job Summit? - 11/13/2009 9:16:02 AM   
Mercnbeth


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The President's job fair is a good idea, but I don't think it's what's needed right now. It can't accomplish much. It can not address quantitative or qualitative issues fundamental to the economy's problems. I question if the philosophy that this Administration has locked themselves into allows for any pragmatic action.

First, as much as many including me, would like to see it, you can not cut taxes. Taxation isn't the concern for businesses or money sources, the deficit is much more troubling. The cuts that have to occur are in spending and entitlements. Fundamentally counter to the Administration's and Congress stated philosophy and position of taking as many decisions away from individuals and abdicating them to a nanny government. Cutting the bureaucracy and entitlements by 20% across the board would be a good start. There is enough duplicity and waste, especially if overlapping Federal and State programs are scrutinized.

The problem with that idea is that initially that would create a whole new set of unemployed bureaucrats. There isn't much need in the world for a few million extra paper pushers accustomed to full pension and paid benefits for life upon retirement after 20 years. Problem #1 about affecting any meaningful change. Here you have a two problems in one. What a choice? An unproductive drain on tax revenue or and a unemployed work force used to sitting on their asses all day. Maybe implementing a plan which would freeze on all new hiring and not replacing any employees for 10 years or so would work.

But the biggest problem I see with this 'summit' is the message it conveys. "We don't know what to do - how about you?"

The economy as an entity is empathic to that kind of sentiment. What is perceived and believed impacts results much more than reality. For instance, in my lifetime I've never had a cost of funds so low. 'Prime' is 3.25%. The real borrowing rate is 0.25% - practically zero. Yet nobody, including me, is lining up to get some of that cheap money to expand. Why? Because the unknown supersedes any idea for implementing growth. Too many business meetings I've attended cover why we can't do things versus how and why we can. To a man, its not high taxes and regulations that scare us, its the lack of specific ideas and a plan coming from Washington that is keeping money on the side-lines.

They announce their experts say the unemployment rate would never reach 8.5% - it's 10.2% and rising. They proudly announce how many jobs the stimulus program created until somebody gets a calculator and determines they cost of $92,000/job (Biden's number). They rely on the same job justifying bureaucrats to report the effectiveness of the job stimulus, but when audited those numbers prove to be flat out lies. They loudly announce no stimulus money will go to pay executive bonuses, then quietly pay it out in the face of contractually reality. They bail out bankrupt GM promising that it will curtail job layoffs and plant closings, only to have plants close. The bail out Chrysler on the promise of creating a viable 'electric car'; only to have Chrysler shut down the operation early this month. From this same leadership we expect a viable plan and action?

To get elected the President painted himself into too many corners. Ranging from "I'm closing GITMO", committing to troop escalation in Afghanistan, 'Cap & Trade', to health care. Whether any or all of these ideas are good or bad they all cost money, money the US doesn't have and the remaining tax payers can't afford. Reality is affecting the Administration's ability to keep his promises at a time when the constituency that got him elected is getting more and more impatient waiting for the entitlement he promised.

The solution is to get government out of the way. Point to the examples of that creating problems in the past, but point to one government initiated solution. Government jobs drain the economy, they don't' improve it. Now, at least for a time, you have to generate government revenue that stays on the positive side of the ledger. The only way to do so is by creating an atmosphere fertile for it to occur, without spending any more tax money to do so. Go out and ask business people what they want most from the government. The majority of them will say - stay out of the way. I don't think that idea will come out of the jobs summit.

(in reply to popeye1250)
Profile   Post #: 42
RE: Thoughts on President Obama's Job Summit? - 11/13/2009 9:39:35 AM   
mnottertail


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And Merc,

I agree about the stay out of my way, and fill out the paperwork and pay for a license for this and a license for that so that two idiots whose whole fucking function in the government is to make up silly fucking rules for me (I am in some heavily regulated business) so they can have a job off me needs to go, particularly in small business operations.

However, I still maintain for big business (the corporeal corporations) there needs to be accounting and oversight because fuck lassize faire at that level, they aint benevolent organizations, they don't even have the same (or need the same) outlook on surviving on customers ala Adam Smith and Milton Friedman, since as you so succintly put it, they got the table tilted heavily in their favor by the corporate rules and structures allowed the big business.

Ron

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RE: Thoughts on President Obama's Job Summit? - 11/13/2009 10:03:03 AM   
willbeurdaddy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: DarkSteven

quote:

ORIGINAL: willbeurdaddy

It is irrefutable because it is impossible to be anything else. Why don't you tell us what the Laffer curve says, and then I'll explain what it REALLY says.


Nope.  Let's try it another way.  The THEORY behind the Laffer curve is not a fact.  As such, it needs to be proven correct.  The burden of proof is not on its opponents to disprove it, but on its proponents to prove it correct.

If I came up with some silly idea like everyone saying the Pledge of Allegiance will magically cure the economy, it would have to be proven, just like the Laffer curve.



Tell me what you think the theory is, and I will either prove your correct statement of it, or correct the statement and prove it. If you cant even state what you think the theory is there is nothing to discuss with you. And I dont want a link, I want what you think it says in your own words, because you are the one that is claiming that it isnt correct.

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RE: Thoughts on President Obama's Job Summit? - 11/13/2009 10:33:03 AM   
mnottertail


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here, it aint in my own words, but this is silly you tell me shit is just fucktarded.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extreme_value_theorem


thats the eqivalent to laffer problem statement, the old calculus min/max extreme value theorem, and the recipe for its solution.


so, knowing that.........real world, do the math, and tell me the number, and show your work, finance minister (solution hint: you may find that in this case, the taxation rate should be higher, not lower...further solution hint: we want to MAXIMIZE the area under the curve i.e. where is the maximum revenue achiveable for prosperitys sake) In any case you need to get out of the realm of bullshit, and put some provable numbers to it, it must be evidentiary, since it is so irrefutable.

< Message edited by mnottertail -- 11/13/2009 10:35:30 AM >


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RE: Thoughts on President Obama's Job Summit? - 11/13/2009 11:16:48 AM   
Mercnbeth


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Ron,
"Stay out of my way", at least when I use the reference, should never be interpreted as wanting to eliminate laws and business accountability. I love rules and laws however, I want them to be applied all the time and consistently. I don't accept a 'more equal' status for any entity or any individual and belief that 'good intent' does not justify unleveling the playing field. Keep the rules in place. Put the emphasis on enforcement and enforce it all the time. However individual examples of lawlessness shouldn't be used as rationalizing more repressive laws and regulations.

What drives little businesses is their dream of being big businesses. The current environment makes that damn near impossible in all industries except one - government. Unfortunately government is the only business which when growing causes the exact problems we're experiencing. Government does not generate revenue, it uses it. It also doesn't generate jobs, or better put, it's the only entity that when it does generate jobs its counter productive to the economy. Government jobs adds expenses to the bottom line of the entity known as the USA which at this point should be in a major expense reduction mode.

Every other business in the country is in the expense reduction, job reduction mode, because of the continued growing government bureaucracy and associated costs of entitlements. You can not correct one, and create jobs, without first doing something about government spending. It doesn't seem that concept is in tune with the philosophy of this Administration or Congress.

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RE: Thoughts on President Obama's Job Summit? - 11/13/2009 11:22:52 AM   
SpinnerofTales


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Mercnbeth

Every other business in the country is in the expense reduction, job reduction mode, because of the continued growing government bureaucracy and associated costs of entitlements. You can not correct one, and create jobs, without first doing something about government spending. It doesn't seem that concept is in tune with the philosophy of this Administration or Congress.


It doesn't seem the concept is in tune wth any aministration or congress, merc. And why should it? Do you run your business to be less profitable, less powerfull less efficient? Let's face it, on both sides of the asile, the money is in growing government, spending more money and getting more rewards for doing so. As it stands, there isn't a damned reason for either those espousing liberalism or those espousing conservatism in their election speeches to do a damned thing to change the status quo. It's working well. Not for us...for them.

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RE: Thoughts on President Obama's Job Summit? - 11/13/2009 11:27:29 AM   
mnottertail


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yanno, we agree on more than we disagree on, I just am having trouble explicating myself, I hate typing.......

Yeah, I pretty much agree with your sentiments (once again) and I am not against regulation in and of itself, I don't want regulation and licensing that are there to strictly give government fuckheads a job, because they are Vogons.

But repressive regulations? well, bring back the legislation that was depracated in the banking and finance industry because it had a purpose, Glass Stegal or whatever it is named. That sort of lassize faire is untenable.

It seems I just get fucked up explaining complex stands, and we seem to be crossed-arms, when for the most part we are not.

Eh, fuck it, such is life.

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Have they not divided the prey; to every man a damsel or two? Judges 5:30


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Profile   Post #: 48
RE: Thoughts on President Obama's Job Summit? - 11/13/2009 11:41:41 AM   
Mercnbeth


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quote:

It doesn't seem the concept is in tune with any administration or congress, merc. And why should it?
We have a disconnect if you believe that's the purpose of government. Another point is, I'd have no problem with the government running like a business if they had to hold to one of the essential rules of business - balancing expenses to revenue. Too many agendas, not the least of which is the prime directive of every elected official - reelection.

The only thing else they need is an ignorant, or to be more PC naive, electorate who can be easily distracted by political party labels and the promise of entitlements. Combine that existing condition with the ruling class' personal goal of becoming wealthy through PAC special interest payouts and you have the defined the US government as it exists today.

quote:

Do you run your business to be less profitable, less powerfull less efficient?
I know it's a rhetorical question, but I dare say, my consideration of my citizens (employees) exceeds that of most, if not all, elected officials. When things are difficult I have their support because they know my personal agenda helps them accomplish theirs. Somehow, I manage to make a profit. In other words my business has no resemblance to government at any level.

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RE: Thoughts on President Obama's Job Summit? - 11/13/2009 12:00:54 PM   
slvemike4u


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quote:

ORIGINAL: mnottertail


quote:

ORIGINAL: servantforuse

Labor unions and non-profit groups will be the main focus of this summit. Obama's agenda against business groups will continue and this job summit will be a waste of time. Unions do not create jobs.



And you worked a union job for what, 33 fuckin years? got a good retirement out of it, healthcare. Who the fuck are you kidding?


Seems like a case of "I've got mine....fuck the rest of you"
CWA...we believe in unions....till we retire!

_____________________________

If we want things to stay as they are,things will have to change...Tancredi from "the Leopard"

Forget Guns-----Ban the pools

Funny stuff....https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eNwFf991d-4


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RE: Thoughts on President Obama's Job Summit? - 11/13/2009 12:09:42 PM   
Mercnbeth


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quote:

"I've got mine....fuck the rest of you"


I think a more appropriate and reality based representation would be; "I've EARNED mine...go out and EARN yours!"

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RE: Thoughts on President Obama's Job Summit? - 11/13/2009 12:41:30 PM   
slvemike4u


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Mercnbeth

quote:

"I've got mine....fuck the rest of you"


I think a more appropriate and reality based representation would be; "I've EARNED mine...go out and EARN yours!"
Perhaps that would have been my response if servant had aknowleged the role a strong union had played in his earning of his...but since he chose not to....I chose to post a response represenative of my views.


_____________________________

If we want things to stay as they are,things will have to change...Tancredi from "the Leopard"

Forget Guns-----Ban the pools

Funny stuff....https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eNwFf991d-4


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RE: Thoughts on President Obama's Job Summit? - 11/13/2009 1:15:18 PM   
servantforuse


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As I mentioned earlier, unions do not create jobs. They have no place at a job summit. CWA never paid me a dime. Lets get business owners at the summit. They are the ones who employ people.

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RE: Thoughts on President Obama's Job Summit? - 11/13/2009 1:21:04 PM   
slvemike4u


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Your right of course servant ...unions don't create jobs.But,and this is a big but ,they can be a force in retaining jobs.Now since it makes no matter to the man/woman recieving a much needed paycheck whether his/her job was created....or simply retained,since a large piece of the puzzle here is slowing the loss of jobs.....maybe just maybe unions actually do have a seat at this table.

_____________________________

If we want things to stay as they are,things will have to change...Tancredi from "the Leopard"

Forget Guns-----Ban the pools

Funny stuff....https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eNwFf991d-4


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Profile   Post #: 54
RE: Thoughts on President Obama's Job Summit? - 11/13/2009 1:22:23 PM   
mnottertail


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meh, I call bullshit, mike (sfu, mike) I am extremely familiar with Ma Bell and Baby Bell workrules, you goddamn right they created jobs via union bargaining. You were a pole monkey, I would like to see you walk in and start plunking away on a DMS or 4 or 5ESS or have one of those CO techs or any super waltz the fuck up your pole.

The only time supers did anything near that is when craft was striking.

< Message edited by mnottertail -- 11/13/2009 1:25:01 PM >


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RE: Thoughts on President Obama's Job Summit? - 11/13/2009 1:24:52 PM   
slvemike4u


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quote:

ORIGINAL: mnottertail

meh, I call bullshit, mike (sfu, mike) I am extremely familiar with Ma Bell and Baby Bell workrules, you goddamn right they created jobs via union bargaining. You were a pole monkey, I would like to see you walk in and start plunking away on a DMS or 4 or 5ESS or have one of those CO techs or any super waltz the fuck up your pole.


WTF are you calling bullshit on me for Ron....I happen to think Unions belong at this table......your signals seem to be crossed.Perhaps a tech can help with that?

_____________________________

If we want things to stay as they are,things will have to change...Tancredi from "the Leopard"

Forget Guns-----Ban the pools

Funny stuff....https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eNwFf991d-4


(in reply to mnottertail)
Profile   Post #: 56
RE: Thoughts on President Obama's Job Summit? - 11/13/2009 1:27:17 PM   
mnottertail


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no, bullshit on sfu mike, not sm4u mike, goddammit!!!!!!!!

I knew this would happen, one of you slaves change your fuckin name.........now sm4u maybe you should change yours to Ron, and then I wouldn't have to catch so much goddamn hell from Merc alla time.


LOLOLOLOL, what a clusterfuck.

Ron


_____________________________

Have they not divided the prey; to every man a damsel or two? Judges 5:30


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Profile   Post #: 57
RE: Thoughts on President Obama's Job Summit? - 11/13/2009 1:29:55 PM   
slvemike4u


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I think your train has run off the track Ron......but hell those of us who read your post's knew it was just a matter of time.

_____________________________

If we want things to stay as they are,things will have to change...Tancredi from "the Leopard"

Forget Guns-----Ban the pools

Funny stuff....https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eNwFf991d-4


(in reply to mnottertail)
Profile   Post #: 58
RE: Thoughts on President Obama's Job Summit? - 11/13/2009 1:31:18 PM   
mnottertail


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servantforuse is mike (sfu)
slvemike4u is mike (sm4u)

what's a feller to do? change your name to gladys then.......

< Message edited by mnottertail -- 11/13/2009 1:32:09 PM >


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Have they not divided the prey; to every man a damsel or two? Judges 5:30


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Profile   Post #: 59
RE: Thoughts on President Obama's Job Summit? - 11/13/2009 10:05:24 PM   
MzMia


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Thank you all for your responses.
 
I hope lowering taxes will be part of the solution, but lowering taxes alone,
I doubt will entirely solve this problem.
 
I hope President Obama takes an eclectic approach here.

President Obama will need to create a variety of programs and incentives to
spur job growth.

Stay tuned, the "job summit" will be in a few weeks.
ho ho ho
 
 

_____________________________

Namaste'
To Each His/Her Own
"DENIAL ain't just a river in Egypt." Mark Twain


What's your favorite fetish?
"My partner's whisper"--bloomswell

(in reply to mnottertail)
Profile   Post #: 60
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