samboct -> RE: but but but Nuclear power is dangerous! (2/8/2010 7:52:25 AM)
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"There is no miracle perfect solution. Natural gas is a flammable explosive gas. This makes it difficult to store and transport and risky to work with. Oil is less risky, more plentiful but burns somewhat dirtier. Coal is plain filthy. That fly ash is nasty caustic stuff. I don't realistically see a "true" clean coal solution anytime on the horizon. You'd be better burning oil. Coal is, however, plentiful. Unfortunately, even mining it is a vile dirty business - not to mention storing the run-off in those coal slurries which occasionall breach and contaminate acres of countryside plus the water table. I don't see a big future for coal. Nuclear has the best potential in the short term. Somehow, as a technology, it's so okay that we gave it to dozens of third-world countries and they can run nuclear power plants for decades but we can't. For that matter, the military has been operating nuclear power plants (in submarines and carrieris) since the Sixties without incident. (Not true- just not well publicized.) Chernobyl is not a good example. The power plant was an extremely bad design and poorly run and managed. I don't realistically see a way around relying on nuclear power for quite some time this century as the only viable alternative until new technologies are developed and brought to market." Sorry IB. While I respect your posts on economics, on this one, you've made some serious blunders (lets not get into a fuels discussion- it's a red herring.) Let's look at the problem from a different standpoint-The issue is NOT of generation- we can generate electricity reasonably cheaply with wind, and installations are relatively inexpensive and with limited environmental impact. If CO2 emissions are accurately priced- wind becomes the cheapest generating solution- most of the costs are up front, installation is quick, no fuel costs, and low decommissioning costs. No environmental costs, i.e. CO2, waste disposal etc. Insurance should be cheaper than for nuclear (which is tax payer subsidized anyhow.) Solar is much more expensive generation- at least 3x at this point- but generally happens when you need it most making it more valuable. (New geothermal appears to have some installation risks- i.e. earthquakes that may limit its utility.) The problem is transmission and storage. Both have different technical solutions than what's been used to date- and both can be implemented rapidly compared to building new nuke plants. 1) Transmission. Existing transmission lines use 1920s technology- steel cables. I took a few notes at a presentation by Composite Technology Cable Corp. (I did buy stock in this company.) New line materials. Conventional stuff is ACSR- new stuff is ACCCU. Uses a carbon fiber core. 100% increase in power capacity because it can go to higher amps with 25% more Aluminum (Aluminum is more conductive than steel) content. Runs cooler, reduces sag (CTE of carbon fiber is pretty low which allows the higher capacities)- 25% reduction in line losses. At 1600 amps, runs 60 C cooler than steel cable. For a 75 mile line at 200 kV, cost is 2x steel conductor. Cost of conductor on a new installation is 15-20%. Costs are about 50/50 for a rewire. Conductor weighs about 1 lb/ft.= uses 10k lbs per100 km. Example Duke Energy- 37 GW in generating capacity. 26B kW/hr per month. 25% reduction in line losses saves $336M/yr. That's for replacing existing lines. New long haul lines- should be DC and superconducting which means buried. This has advantages and disadvantages. Advantages- NIMBY problem lessened- people have fewer objections to buried power lines than overhead. Cost disadvantage- burying lines is an easy 10x greater installation cost than overhead. However, with a superconducting line, distance is no object- can transport power with few losses from OK or KS to the East Coast. Cost of cable will be several $ billion US according to American Superconductor (Danbury, CT - I plan on buying stock in this company if the price drops down to $10/share again.). Installation probably higher. Effectively you will need one cable in a modestly sized tunnel (less than 2 meters in diameter with cooling jacket of liquid N2), but can run several taps off for say Chicago, OH, other high demand regions. Already in use in CT in some substations. So really, one can reduce transmission losses by a quarter without a dramatic change in cost structure, and if you're willing to spring for the infrastructure, we can get power anywhere in the country cheaply. Analogy-There is no way you could have the current information economy using copper wire. Newer power transmission technology will enable a different generation paradigm which will allow very different economics. Storage- At this point we have roughly 2.5% of our current generating capacity in storage capacity. This is in the form of pumped hydro- a technology which has been around for decades. Improvement in pumps can increase efficiency slightly, but overall efficiency is in the 80% range. Most losses are due to evaporation- so that's not changing. Short term storage- flywheels- Beacon Power (I own a little stock in this company too.) Can handle transient spikes for about 15 minutes or so. Larger flywheels would allow cheaper installations. Need better composites. Longer term storage i.e. hours, may be battery if cost/MW can be decreased. Still an economics problem- storage needs a different cost structure than generation and I don't think we've got it. This is because there is no economics benefit to NOT building new generation technology. Conservation- The problem with conservation to date is that the benefits are distributed, while the costs are paid by a few in terms of either dollars or behavior modification. Lack of conservation is an economics, not a technical or political problem. Real time pricing may help- some data suggests that individual consumers try it for a bit, don't like it, and don't really change their behavior long term- they're willing to pay more instead. Real stimulus spending will involve projects like these which will put people back to work, restore the US manufacturing base, and allow us to compete globally on the basis of having cheap power with lessened environmental impact. Of course, this would require Obama to lead- and Congress to not throw screaming hissy fits. It would require all of us to put aside our differences and work together for a change. It becomes a political, rather than a technical problem But there are better technology solutions than simply building more nuke plants.... Sam
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