LafayetteLady
Posts: 7683
Joined: 5/2/2007 From: Northern New Jersey Status: offline
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ORIGINAL: Elisabella No, it's not what the statistic says. The statistic (if misread) would say that half of marriages end in divorce. That doesn't mean that every marriage has a 50% chance at divorcing, which would be ridiculous. You can't say that a devout Catholic couple who believes that divorce will condemn them to eternal damnation has the exact same chance of divorcing as the guy who drunkenly marries a Vegas stripper he's known for 12 hours. This isn't a chance-based statistic akin to flipping a coin, rather it depends on the people involved and to say that every marriage has the same chance of failure is misreading the statistic. Actually, no it isn't misreading the statistic. The chances of a couple staying married very much depends on the people involved, but if you just go straight statistics, if 50% of marriages end in divorce, that is 1 out of every 2 marriages, and so each marriage has, according to statistics, a 50% chance of ending in divorce. That's the basic problem of using statistics to try to validate things. quote:
ORIGINAL: Elisabella I'd say that depends on the people...by the time I was 17 (my first 'real' relationship) I was in the state of mind where I didn't want to waste time with anyone I couldn't see myself having a future with. I know other people who say they refuse to get married before a certain age, so their 17 year old relationships likely wouldn't be viewed as potential marriage partners. There are quite a few 17 year olds who, even though they don't plan on marrying before they are "X" years of age (usually the whole...finish college, get career started type of thing), they do plan on doing all that with the person they are currently involved with. quote:
ORIGINAL: Elisabella quote:
The point is that no matter how you try to spin a marriage statistic or create a statistic regarding long term relationships, the numbers will not be valid. Further a long term relationship that continues beyond 5 years has the same chance of continuing or ending as a marriage that has lasted more than 5 years. That's interesting, where did you read that? I honestly don't remember. It was something I came across many years ago. Although there were some studies done, it is all based on common sense really. Those first few years of marriage will typically be the most difficult in the sense that two people are getting used to the whole concept of sharing primarily everything with their spouse. It is an adjustment when you get married (as I'm sure you know). There is typically the co-mingling of funds, the secret private behavior of each individual (i.e. him spending time in the bathroom reading while taking a dump, her having her little quirky beauty routines), the splitting of housework (which is never equal), etc. One of the funniest parts about it is the feeling of "losing your freedom" even though the couples have typically been involved for a significant period of time prior to the marriage and already lost that freedom. That piece of paper, in that way, has a funny effect. quote:
ORIGINAL: Elisabella There are lots of arranged marriages in western countries as well. From what I've read the success of arranged marriages is based on multiple factors, primarily that the marriage is viewed as the creation of a family and not an act of passion. Arranged marriages tend to stress things like building a future together and strengthening the family whereas non-arranged marriages tend to primarily be motivated by love and passion. I didn't specify where the arranged marriages were taking place, basically because it is irrelevant. Certainly there are cultural communities right here in the states where arranged marriages are the norm. While you are correct in the strengthening of the families being one of the reasons, it doesn't alter the fact that those cultures do not believe in, or accept divorces. I agree that non-arranged marriages are motivated by love, but not necessarily by passion. In today's society, a good number of marriages that are non-arranged actually are based on the desire to create a family. In many cases, the financial advantages are also part of the reason (when looking at "older" couples). For the people in your age bracket, it is what has typically been learned is the expected process of life. You grow up, you fall in love, you get married, you start a family. I'm not saying that was your case, but it still is a strong motivating factor for a lot of young people. quote:
ORIGINAL: Elisabella Indeed, yet LV still has twice the national average divorce rate...it would probably go even higher if you counted those who married in Vegas and divorced out of state, and the high rate of annulment is depressing as well. There really isn't a high rate of annulments. There are two types of annulments, religious and legal. Legal annulments are, quite frankly, a pain in the ass, and in most cases not worth the time or effort needed. While people seem to think that a marriage can not be consumated to obtain an annulment, sex really isn't that big of an issue. Legal annulments are granted on the basis of fraud typically, and can be obtained even after a marriage has lasted a significant number of years. Religious annulment is really essentially paying the church to forgive you for getting married and divorced. I believe, although I haven't checked, and I'm not entirely positive, that Las Vegas is one of the places where a divorce can be obtained with much less difficulty than other places (kind of like the people that leave the country to get a divorce). I have never been involved in those types of divorces, so I am not 100% sure of the various legal issues involved. quote:
ORIGINAL: ElisabellaYou could aspects of the statistics, yes, but the first paragraph was simply a misreading of the statistics. Again, no it wasn't a misreading of the statistics. You figure it out the same way you figure out your odds of winning the lottery. If one in two marriages end in divorce (which I was looking at some more current statistics and the divorce rate has dropped), then each marriage has a 50% chance of succeeding. Statistics do not figure in the devotion of the couple, or any other mitigating factors. That is one of the reasons that statistics aren't worth much for relying on anything. quote:
ORIGINAL: Elisabella I'm not sure where you get that idea, the statistics I've found show that brides in my age range when they were married (26) make up 16.4% of divorces whereas grooms in my husband's age range at marriage (34) make up 11.6%. http://www.divorcepeers.com/stats38.htm Although your link contains information that is almost 15 years old, the reason for it is because of the number of 26 year olds who simply have not matured enough. I'm in no way saying that is your situation at all. But I'm sure if you looked at a lot of the people you know in your age group, they simply aren't ready for marriage and all it entails. quote:
ORIGINAL: Elisabella Also while it is true that the majority of divorces are by people who married before they turned 30, it's also true that the majority of marriages are by people under 30. The stats I show above don't say "36% of people who marry between 20-24 will divorce" but rather "of all the people who are divorced, 36% of them got married between the ages of 20-24" which is most likely coupled with a similar statistic that says "of all the people who get married, ~36% did so between the ages of 20-24" which simply means that the divorce rate is proportional to the marriage rate itself. Again, that is one of the reasons why statistics don't really paint an accurate picture. Honestly, right now it is after midnight here and I really don't have the energy to go and get more accurate statistics and extropolate all the information. Perhaps I will tomorrow, but right now, it just ain't gonna happen. quote:
ORIGINAL: Elisabella Actually my version of the statistics does calculate correctly, and you just contradicted your original statement (all marriages have the same chance to end in divorce) with your last statement (those who get married young have a higher chance of divorcing). It doesnt' contradict anything. On the whole of divorces, it will occur more often with young people. quote:
ORIGINAL: Elisabella But it's fine that Lucy doesn't want marriage, it's not my place to tell anyone to lead a lifestyle they're not comfortable with. The question wasn't "is marriage better" but rather "is marriage more serious" and as I said before, the legal aspect and the fact that, whether or not it works out, at the time of marriage you're making a legal, contractual vow to spend your life with that person means that marriage carries more gravitas, in my opinion. Actually the question was "is marriage more real" The main problem with stating one relationship is more "real" than another is that it indicates that the other must also be more "fake." But even if the question was, as you stated, which is more "serious," the answer will still vary based on the parties involved.
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