The final week. (Full Version)

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DCWoody -> The final week. (4/30/2010 5:56:02 AM)

UK General Election will be on May 6th.

In the British System, there is not one national election but hundreds (650 this time) of local elections, to send a Member of Parliament to the House of Commons. The House of Commons then decides the Prime Minister.
If any one party gets more than half of the commons, their leader is PM....otherwise, parties need to negotiate.
This system tends to exaggerate the power of larger parties, and geographically concentrated parties, at the expense of tiny parties such as the Greens.

In 2005:
Labour (government since 1997) got 35.3% of the vote, 356 seats.
Conservatives (government between 1979 and 1997) got 32.3% of the vote, 198 seats.
Liberal Democrats (desendants of the Liberal party in govt mid 1800s to early 1900s) 22.1%, 62 seats.

There are also many small and/or local parties, but those are the three that win multiple seats across the UK.

The boundaries have changed slightly since then, expected to result in a few fewer labour seats if everyone voted the same way.


Current polling has Labour ~27%, Conservatives ~34%, Liberal-Democrats~29%

Which very roughly works out at Cons 271 seats, Labour 252, Lib-dems 98.
Liberals losing out as their support is spread roughly evenly throughout the nation, where labours is strongly concentrated in towns& cities, and cons concentrated in England.
This would lead to the liberal democrats getting to choose whether to ally with cons or labour to elect a PM...a very powerful position.


With the economy &/or national debt as the overriding issue, each parties chancellor candidate (economics boss guy) has come under almost as much scrutiny as their candidate for PM.
Cons have PM:Cameron, C:Osborne
Libs have PM:Clegg, C:Cable
Labour have PM:Brown, C:Darling....although it is extremely likely that Brown will be sacked after the GE, and another leader (quite possibly Darling) selected.

The most popular PM is Clegg, with Brown by far the least, the most popular chancellor is Cable, with Osborne the least.

So, depending on whether you're economically left or right (labour or cons), the prefered outcome of negotiations seems to be
PM:Darling C:Cable or PM:Cameron C:Cable.


Of course, there's still a week to go, Labour or Cons could both theoretically steal the whole thing and not need an alliance with the Libs (more likely cons could do that, labour are fucked).....in theory, so could Liberals...but they've already gained ~12 points in the last couple of weeks, they'd need to gain another 12 in 6 days....so...not likely.

Not entirely sure where I was going with this post, but....there's no UKGE thread on the first page, so...now there is.

I'm a bit of a political obsessive so feel free to ask me shit. Personally I'm torn between lib-dems & UKIP for my vote.


PS:Americans, 'Liberal' in the UK has the same etymology as the word 'liberty', not as 'communist'.


[image]local://upfiles/347591/6F0041058EC14F1CA45BEC1AB744B85F.gif[/image]



pahunkboy -> RE: The final week. (4/30/2010 5:59:50 AM)

Hopefully  Sinn Fein wins.



DCWoody -> RE: The final week. (4/30/2010 6:04:27 AM)

They do seem to be popular in the USA. Thankyou for being sponsors of terrorism.



pahunkboy -> RE: The final week. (4/30/2010 6:09:57 AM)

I thought they simply wanted self rule.    



LadyEllen -> RE: The final week. (4/30/2010 6:10:09 AM)

We need PR, simple as that.

If the Tories get a majority, with or without their new found fascist friends in NI we wont get PR

If Labour somehow get a majority we wont get PR (or even a referendum on AV as theyve offered)

If the Lib Dems hold the balance of power, with or without smaller parties, we have the best chance of getting PR

Thereafter the whole system is changed and we might have a democracy - where more than 60% of the people turn out because they know their vote counts, where more than 10% take an interest in politics because theyre represented and where never again can we have "safe seats", elections founded on marginals and governments with 20% popular support forcing through legislation and foreign policy decisions that the majority in the country disagree with.

Nevertheless, the governor of the Bank of England's comments, made in private but since reported, may give pause to the lot of them - a coalition government would at least mean that they were all blamed rather than just one party.

E



DCWoody -> RE: The final week. (4/30/2010 6:15:03 AM)

Sinn Fein=IRA party. Northern Ireland wants to remain in the UK, thats why it did when the rest of Ireland got independance....I'm far from being alone in saying we're happy to lose NI as soon as the people in NI want to be lost.



DCWoody -> RE: The final week. (4/30/2010 6:19:05 AM)

@LadyE, I disagree...ish. The link between individual MPs and their constituency, the fact you vote for an individual rather than a party....is IMO extremely good, if anything I'd like reforms to strengthen it rather than destroy it. I'm a strong thinker that people should be elected/not based on individual merit rather than the party tag next to their name. In the current system the individual does make a large difference (though not large enough IMO), any amount of PR in the commons at all would weaken that.

However, PR for an elected portion of the house of lords.....I'm well on board.



pahunkboy -> RE: The final week. (4/30/2010 6:24:08 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: DCWoody

Sinn Fein=IRA party. Northern Ireland wants to remain in the UK, thats why it did when the rest of Ireland got independance....I'm far from being alone in saying we're happy to lose NI as soon as the people in NI want to be lost.


No they don't.  This is balkanization.   Letting poorer farmland secede, while keeping the better farmland under British rule is just that. 



DCWoody -> RE: The final week. (4/30/2010 6:28:31 AM)

Yes they do. NI isn't 'better farmland' than the rest of Ireland, NI was mostly industrial and is now services, farming is ~2%. It's still in the UK because 250,000 people signed a petition in their own blood, and every proper opinion poll, every election, every vote, since then...have shown the clear majority wanting to remain in the UK.



LadyEllen -> RE: The final week. (4/30/2010 6:28:54 AM)

There's all ways it could be done DC - and I agree that the local component is important - albeit we seem to see more and more often now that outsiders are parachuted into constituences (especially safe seats) on no better claim than being the favourite du jour of someone high up in the party.

But I'm not so sure that the local component we have now is not really a relic of the past and that what is local today is far larger than a single constituency (excepting those huge rural ones); many constituents after all travel out of constituency for work, healthcare and a range of other reasons on a daily basis, making it more the case that we might pool 3-4 neighbouring constituencies and use PR and a list to determine elected members for those pooled areas, each of whom represents all the people in the pooled area. It could be taken much further than that of course, to regional level, but then I think the local component would be lost.

Whatever the system, it needs to make every vote count and provide representation for every view that garners enough votes. The current one doesnt, it dispossesses millions and this I believe leads to low turnout, lack of interest and unmandated government. This may mean BNP MPs of course - but you know, we're a democracy (or meant to be) so if that becomes the case then it does - its then for the other parties to confront them and reduce their support.

E



Arpig -> RE: The final week. (4/30/2010 6:29:52 AM)

You don't know what your talking about Hunky....as usual.



DCWoody -> RE: The final week. (4/30/2010 6:37:31 AM)

I have always disagreed with any claim that votes don't count. If you live in an area that always votes tory (I do), it doesn't mean your vote doesn't count if you vote labour, any more than supporters of the communist parties votes don't count because they're in the minority. Their candidate doesn't win because they lost the election, that's how it works....I wouldn't even like local PR systems, I want to vote for an individual not a party. Imagine trying to elect the first person on a list but not the 2nd/3rd/etc....do you vote for them or no?

I agree about the safe seat party favourite phenomenon, not having the party tags on the ballot is an idea...but probably way too much resistance....I think if ya had say..200 lords elected by national PR, that would mostly remove the parties desire to do that, they'd just put them on the list...and hopefully it'd take some of the party politics out of MP elections.

If you're really worried about the voting system for MPs, AV is a good idea IMO.



LadyEllen -> RE: The final week. (4/30/2010 6:39:02 AM)

PA - uninformed again?

the people in the north voted to stay in the UK - the vote turned out as it did because the protestant/loyalists outnumbered the catholic/republicans in Ulster.

the recent troubles that spawned the "new" IRA (as opposed to the one involved in the independence struggle) were down to the catholic/republicans demanding civil rights, inspired by the "black" movement in the US, in a province where everything was run by the protestant/loyalists. When the latter escalated to violence against the former's demonstrations, the troubles ignited. The British Army was sent in to protect the catholic/republicans in the first place but then became a target and turned against them.

Sinn Fein, as the political party front of the IRA abandoned violence for two reasons
1) US sponsorship started drying up and they wouldnt be able to fight much longer
2) most importantly, demographics - the catholic/republicans are outbreeding the protestant/loyalists so that before long now they will be the majority - call a new referendum in say 10 years from now and Sinn Fein/IRA may well get their wish, without all the problems involved in supplying and fighting a guerilla war

E



DCWoody -> RE: The final week. (4/30/2010 6:47:23 AM)

@Lady E, even the most recent polls still show the same picture of wanting to remain in the UK, as the separation issue becomes diluted (ie assembly) and seperated from religion, and NI athiesed (albeit slower than great britain), I can't see it happening. So called mixed marriages ( http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v0thRUS1wUw ) always on the rise too apparently.



DomYngBlk -> RE: The final week. (4/30/2010 7:07:11 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: DCWoody

Sinn Fein=IRA party. Northern Ireland wants to remain in the UK, thats why it did when the rest of Ireland got independance....I'm far from being alone in saying we're happy to lose NI as soon as the people in NI want to be lost.


Wow, pretty simplistic sentence to wipe away the struggles of the Irish people. Think the treachery of the Crown has as much to do with the 6 counties being part of the UK than anything else. But like most things the English have done over the years they create havoc, take all the goodies, then kick the dust off their shoes and go home to leave the place in conflict.



LadyEllen -> RE: The final week. (4/30/2010 7:09:24 AM)

maybe DC - to be honest its all getting a bit academic anyway given EU membership

and more so when Sterling collapses next year and we have to join the Euro - which by then will have to have adopted common fiscal/monetary policy, owned and operated by the Germans, fronted by the French -and also have gotten involved in trying to displace the dollar as the currency of oil trading so we might avoid €4-00/litre at the pumps

E



DCWoody -> RE: The final week. (4/30/2010 7:25:32 AM)

@DomY, the sad thing is, american preception of the matter is such I can't tell for certain if that's a serious comment or not.




pahunkboy -> RE: The final week. (4/30/2010 7:26:26 AM)

So they are so happy then why would they set off bombs?






DomYngBlk -> RE: The final week. (4/30/2010 7:27:46 AM)

Serious from me yes. I find that Europeans as a whole are far more comfortable offering comments on someone else's house without looking at theirs. How else to explain the state of Africa and the Middle East/Asia post European Colonization



pahunkboy -> RE: The final week. (4/30/2010 7:35:45 AM)

I admit that I do not know the full nuances of UK/IE, the governments and so forth.

I am a product of US media.  I do detect that there is a UK bias that is as perplexing, propagandist as say the US is.  (Tho more myopic in the US.)

Interesting to note that people from other states can get along fine- we don't have people from NJ bombing PA.  And then I am the conspiracy nut when I say there is civil unrest and possibly worse ahead for the US.

With violent bloody thirst Europe, and a huge military of USA, we will have nothing but peace? (with in the 50 states- just like NI/UK IRA? )



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