quote:

ORIGINAL: Musicmystery

That's not an argument. That's your hedge against your assumptions.

Sorry. Alex's assumptions.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Marini

Since I am the one that started THIS thread, I will attempt to lead people
back to my OP.

I appreciate MM for contributing his opinions actually.
I am learning to enjoy debating, and he makes great points, I just can't agree with him!
 
I ask the question, if there are other people "out there" that feel that this global economy
could lead to a global recession/Depression, for many of the countries involved in it???

The OP was to start a discussion, on why or why/not people feel this way.
Some say yes, some say no, in the end time will tell.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Musicmystery

Sorry, pahb.

I have real assets, including food, remember?

quote:

ORIGINAL: LadyEllen

First off, the developing countries will be fine - and this whether we can continue to buy their exports or more widely we can meet our debts to them. They have developed sizeable internal markets in the period over which they have taken the stage and this will see them through.

Secondly, given the enormous debts owed by we old economies to the developing economies, it will not be in their best interests for us to collapse. Not only will they not get paid but their influence over us will be diminished and so I believe they will do all they can to keep us afloat, if only just, until we find a way to recover, which may well be by way of agreeing market regulations such that their markets present fair competition for us to sell to them whatever it is we might be able to. The price to be paid in the long term by us is to lose our primacy in the world and have the developing economies effectively dictate terms to us.

Thirdly the ups and downs of stock markets and currency exchanges provide little guidance as to the situation except to the extent that they indicate the fears of those involved in relation to the relative situation from time to time and place to place and their exposure to possible losses should certain fears predominate. As such the Euro and Sterling will likely depreciate against the Dollar as will European stock markets vs the Dow et al, because the markets are predominantly expressed in, and assets are predominantly held in, US Dollars and the majority do not want to see themselves wiped out so will transfer fear to where it will least harm them. This however will not indicate the strength of the US economy or the Dollar except relative to their European counterparts, and the Dollar, Dow et al may well depreciate against their counterparts elsewhere in the world.

Fourthly there is no doubt in my mind that unless we roll back from the type of socio-economic model we have come to be dominated by - "greed is good", "devil take the hindmost", "etc" and adopt a liberal, social democratic model that nonetheless places emphasis on the importance of the private sector in order to meet social needs, then we are pretty much up the swanny.

Another wonderful post by LadyE, and I agree if things do not change in a major way, we will indeed be "up the swanny" in a way that will leave many with their mouths hanging open and a lot of "I can't believe this is happening" going on.
E

quote:

ORIGINAL: Musicmystery

Think all night long.

The world will remain as it is.

quote:

ORIGINAL: servantforuse

Where have you been the last six months. Greece, Portugal and Spain already went down. Europe is in worse shape than we are. The IMF is spending billions trying to right a sinking ship. They got there the way we got there. Spending money that thry didn't have.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Musicmystery

Ellen,

None of that can happen in any real way without meaningful international law.

We are a long ways from that, however.