RE: Imagine there's no stock market...

RE: Imagine there's no stock market... (Full Version)

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Musicmystery -> RE: Imagine there's no stock market... (6/6/2010 11:35:58 AM)
quote: The stock market to me is rich man's games, a casino for those that like to gamble. The chips are people's livelihoods and families, money made and lost at the expense of people who have no say beyond being employed and getting a wage to ensure their and their familys survival on this planet during their nature given lifetime It is also an example of centralisation, something which is proving to be bad for us, but hey, rich men are making money, what is good for them has to be good for us, even when it's not. Nonsense. Play to trade and get rich quick, yeah, you're taking a risk and will probably get burned. Invest for the long term and you'll likely be fine, even with the ups and downs. Let's take that 30 years again and, say, Grandma subtee tells Auntie subbie to invest. "I can't afford to invest!" says Auntie sub. "You can take a lousy $25 a week, can't you?" demands Granny. Auntie doesn't want to argue, so just does it. To simply, let's just take yearly Dow averages, still an up and down ride at times, and certainly down in 2010: 1980 891.41 1981 932.92 1982 884.36 1983 1190.34 1984 1178.48 1985 1328.23 1986 1792.76 1987 2275.99 1988 2060.82 1989 2508.91 1990 2678.94 1991 2929.33 1992 3284.29 1993 3522.06 1994 3793.77 1995 4493.76 1996 5742.89 1997 7441.15 1998 8625.52 1999 10464.88 2000 10734.9 2001 10189.13 2002 9226.43 2003 10453 2004 10783 2005 10717 2006 12463 2007 13264.82 2008 11,197.29 2009 8,904.60 2010 10,523.13 Nonetheless, Auntie subbie would now have invested $39,550 in shares worth $149,591.99--even with the market down--378% of her original bucks. That's not even counting dividends or stock splits, and if I actually calculated this week to week instead of yearly, she'd be much further ahead, because she'd have bought more shares at low prices and fewer shares at high prices. Rich man's game? No. Always listen to Granny subtee. Btw, Uncle pahbie, who put his weekly $25 in silver, would have had a rougher ride: 1980 20.63 1981 10.52 1982 7.95 1983 11.44 1984 8.14 1985 6.14 1986 5.47 1987 7.01 1988 6.53 1989 5.5 1990 4.82 1991 4.04 1992 3.94 1993 4.3 1994 5.29 1995 5.15 1996 5.19 1997 4.89 1998 5.1 1999 5.22 2000 4.95 2001 4.37 2002 4.6 2003 4.85 2004 6.65 2005 7.31 2006 11.55 2007 13.38 2008 14.97 2009 14.68 2010 17.34 Today, he'd have just $109,881.21, only 73% of Auntie subbie's return, even though silver is now way up and stocks are now way down--Auntie's stocks STILL win (and if/when Uncle pahbie's silver returns to its long term historical value of around $5, he'll have just $31684.32--a 20% loss on his 30 years of investment). But how about Uncle Ani? Not trusting to a "rich man's game," he plops his weekly $25 into a trusty savings account at 1.4%, and in 30 years, has accrued a grand total of...$48,432. Unfortunately, since inflation likely exceeded 1.4%, it is worth less than his original investment once adjusted for inflation. But damn, did he ever beat the rich man!

vincentML -> RE: Imagine there's no stock market... (6/6/2010 2:52:04 PM)
RO, your chart is skewed. $15,000 average income per tax unit. Who was paying taxes in 1933? Who had a job in 1933? 25% unemployment. Taxes were levied only on the wealthiest segment of the populaton. Sneaky statistics, bro.

vincentML -> RE: Imagine there's no stock market... (6/6/2010 2:54:16 PM)
Good thing you did not include 1968 - 1982. The DJIA kept hitting its head against 1000 for 14 years or so. Similar pattern could happen this next 14 years. Has the Japanese Market ever reached its 1989 peak? Wasn't that the year it crashed? I'll have to check.

Musicmystery -> RE: Imagine there's no stock market... (6/6/2010 3:35:22 PM)
quote: Good thing you did not include 1968 - 1982. The DJIA kept hitting its head against 1000 for 14 years or so. Beyond the obvious point that with double digit interest rates people would have invested in bonds and money markets, let's take a look. Great-Grandpoppa Vinnie sets aside his $25/week starting in 1968. In 1982, he has a return anyway--$19,885.89 on a $19,500 investment. But let's be realistic and add that 2% dividend wilbeur mentioned--now he has $20,253.01. To be fair now, let's compare apples to apples--Jeff and pahb threw out a 30 year period. So at the end of 30 years, Great-Grandpa Vinnie has 31.41 shares worth $233,760.18. Or even without the dividend, he has 30.79 shares worth $229,176.65--totally smoking Auntie subbie. And that's the point--those years of low markets are years of buying up more shares at lower prices. That the market is down right now is great those still 10-15 years away from retirement. Remember to switch to bonds and money markets when it's up. Good thing Great-Grandpa Vinnie didn't invest in silver--it hit $2,565/ounce in 1968, down to $7.95 in 1982, and $4.89 at the end of 30 years.

pahunkboy -> RE: Imagine there's no stock market... (6/6/2010 5:25:37 PM)
It is pretty sad the some retirees must return to work- now that the stock market did not work out. One one time they had CDs. but not these days. It really is sad how many billions have been evaporated via the casino. The house always wins- and MM is trying to convince me that - one can actually get ahead there. It gets even worst- people who have credit card debt and stocks- are paying 29% interest each year to lose money on wall street. Smoke and mirrors. The house always wins.

vincentML -> RE: Imagine there's no stock market... (6/6/2010 6:27:53 PM)
Here's another example. The Nikkei average hit its all-time high on December 29, 1989, during the peak of the Japanese asset price bubble, when it reached an intra-day high of 38,957.44 before closing at 38,915.87. Its high for the 21st century stands just above 18,300 points. In January 2010, it was 72.9% below its peak. Tonight, the Nikkei is at 9558. Regarding your estimated return for 1968 - 1982 .... $20,253 on an investment of $19,500....a gain of $753 over 14 years is $53.78 per year. Insured in hind sight only because a Secular Bull Market began in august 1982. So yes, with luck, with being in the right place at the right time over the long haul your Great-Grandpoppa would have made out well .... but suppose he were Japanese in December, 1989? Not so good. I am not a shill for silver or gold or any asset class. All, I am saying is that yanno past performance is no guarantee...... There have been many economic bubbles in the past. What makes you so sure we have completely corrected this last one? In the past Decade the Dow reached 15500 twice. Is there some imperative it will ever reach there again? We still have a "dark" banking system that could fall down upon us. Just saying... Invest for the long term? As Keynes said, "In the long term we are all dead." Might be better to have a beer instead. I don't always agree with Pahunk but this time he does speak with some wisdom when he says the house always wins. I think the game is rigged.

Musicmystery -> RE: Imagine there's no stock market... (6/6/2010 6:30:54 PM)
If you're paying 29%, you're an idiot. I pay 3.9%, fixed. If you went into retirement holding all stocks, that was also pretty foolish. If you just blindly invest, from stocks to silver, you're gambling, not investing. Call it the "House" if you like. But you're full of shit--the problem is in your mirror. You can't fix stupid, whatever the investment.

pahunkboy -> RE: Imagine there's no stock market... (6/6/2010 6:36:19 PM)
Call it the "House" if you like. But you're full of shit--the problem is in your mirror. You can't fix stupid, whatever the investment./snip the entire world 2010 that your people are pounding on us- is one where guys like me are functionally illiterate. I simply can not function in your complicated world.

Musicmystery -> RE: Imagine there's no stock market... (6/6/2010 6:38:00 PM)
vincent, I know nothing about the Japanese economy. I don't have investments there. Obviously past return is no guarantee. There's a risk. But it can be managed, and investments chosen accordingly. To say based on feelings that "the House always wins" and "the game is rigged" is pretty ignorant. And, I'm not selling anyone--I've said a few times now in this thread that if it's not for you, don't invest. But it's silly to then demonize it. Especially to suggest leaving the market for the riskier, more easily manipulated (remember the attempt to corner the market), much more volatile, non-income producing trading of silver. That's just insane. Trade commodities if you like, but don't pretend it's secure, and don't pretend it takes one outside of the world of monetary policy or business climate. You still have your 1.4% savings account, after all.

pahunkboy -> RE: Imagine there's no stock market... (6/6/2010 6:40:54 PM)
but prior to 1965- the coins were real. the coin was collateral for itself.

Musicmystery -> RE: Imagine there's no stock market... (6/6/2010 6:41:50 PM)
And we're back to the monetary loop. Start a thread.

pahunkboy -> RE: Imagine there's no stock market... (6/6/2010 6:43:46 PM)
So in your own words- stock is not money. Stock does not have the value that money does. (silver)

Musicmystery -> RE: Imagine there's no stock market... (6/6/2010 6:44:54 PM)
And we're back to the monetary loop and you making up things. Start a thread.

pahunkboy -> RE: Imagine there's no stock market... (6/6/2010 6:47:07 PM)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pS6_lTpO9lI&playnext_from=TL&videos=rD0MliZpPlc&feature=sub here is a cop talking.

Musicmystery -> RE: Imagine there's no stock market... (6/6/2010 6:48:46 PM)
It's a stock market thread. Start a cop silver monetary thread.

pahunkboy -> RE: Imagine there's no stock market... (6/6/2010 6:53:14 PM)
He also gives stock tips.

pahunkboy -> RE: Imagine there's no stock market... (6/6/2010 6:57:07 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Musicmystery It's a stock market thread. Start a cop silver monetary thread. What do you need to see- to realize that paper gold is not real? What do you need to see- to realize we are in a depression and a currency collapse? At what point- - what do you need to see- that we do not live in Goldilocks economy? What?

Musicmystery -> RE: Imagine there's no stock market... (6/6/2010 7:00:05 PM)
And we're back to the monetary spam. Every fucking thread. Week after week. Month after month. Same. Fucking. Shit. From. Same. Fucking. Poster. Regardless of topic. Over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over

pahunkboy -> RE: Imagine there's no stock market... (6/6/2010 7:02:55 PM)
MM- so according to you, money is not important? Why even invest? The idea is to make money- right?

Musicmystery -> RE: Imagine there's no stock market... (6/6/2010 7:20:35 PM)
And we're back to more monetary spam. And more making up shit. Again. Yet fucking again. Every fucking thread. Week after week. Month after month. Same. Fucking. Shit. From. Same. Fucking. Poster. Regardless of topic. Over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over

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