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RE: Imagine there's no stock market... - 6/6/2010 7:24:59 PM   
pahunkboy


Posts: 33061
Joined: 2/26/2006
From: Central Pennsylvania
Status: offline 		So-  since you don't value sound money-  and are a cheer leader for paper promises- your mode will last beyond 6000 years.

What are you working for?

Of course money is important.

You cant pay bills with love.

Pushing paper- like you do- while coloring it as a way to get rich is a scam.

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RE: Imagine there's no stock market... - 6/6/2010 7:25:20 PM   
DarkSteven


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Status: offline 		MusicMystery, the issue I have with your example is that it shows the PAST behavior of the stock market.  It is a widespread assumption that the past will predict the future.

I;m not so sure. The same conditions that caused the big crash in 2008 ARE STILL THERE.  I cannot see how an identical crash will not happen - the only difference is that anyone proposing "Son of TARP" will be politically a dead man walking. 


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The small-breasted ones want larger breasts. The large-breasted ones want smaller ones. The straight-haired ones curl their hair, and the curly-haired ones straighten theirs...

Quit fretting. We men love you."

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RE: Imagine there's no stock market... - 6/6/2010 7:27:17 PM   
Musicmystery


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quote:

ORIGINAL: pahunkboy

So-  since you don't value sound money-  and are a cheer leader for paper promises- your mode will last beyond 6000 years.

What are you working for?

Of course money is important.

You cant pay bills with love.

Pushing paper- like you do- while coloring it as a way to get rich is a scam.


More making up shit.

Again. Yet fucking again.

(in reply to pahunkboy)
Profile   Post #: 283
RE: Imagine there's no stock market... - 6/6/2010 7:36:41 PM   
Musicmystery


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quote:

ORIGINAL: DarkSteven

MusicMystery, the issue I have with your example is that it shows the PAST behavior of the stock market.  It is a widespread assumption that the past will predict the future.

I;m not so sure. The same conditions that caused the big crash in 2008 ARE STILL THERE.  I cannot see how an identical crash will not happen - the only difference is that anyone proposing "Son of TARP" will be politically a dead man walking. 


Steven,

First, I've already agreed that past performance doesn't guarantee the future.

And I agree that we have problems with the structural economy at present.

But the OP---anyone remember that?--characterized the stock market as a manipulated tool to take advantage of the poor slobs foolish enough to participate, and that's just silly. THAT's the point here--along with over the long term, investors fare well.

What about the future? Perhaps not day to day (why I advise against trading), but over time, fundamentals determine the market. It's still businesses producing. Our businesses still grow. That means their stocks do also.

I can't point to something that reasonably predictable with other investments. I can't even say precious metals will rise if the market or currency fall, because lately, they've been falling with the market and currency.

I've also said that if someone isn't comfortable, don't invest. There are, of course, degrees of risk in stocks, not a monolithic market, including plenty of predictably secure blue chips, especially when one is diversified.

What's the alternative? If you're going to predict the collapse of the economy (not saying you are, but some are, despite our overall strength with yes, some problems), where exactly are you going to hide? If that happened, it's over. Everything will be meaningless in the civil unrest that would follow.

I'm only pointing out that this mania that the demon stock market is out to get people is silly. That doesn't prevent people from making poor choices and suffering the consequences. Diversify, and do your homework, not follow greed and tips.

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RE: Imagine there's no stock market... - 6/6/2010 7:38:01 PM   
pahunkboy


Posts: 33061
Joined: 2/26/2006
From: Central Pennsylvania
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quote:

ORIGINAL: DarkSteven

MusicMystery, the issue I have with your example is that it shows the PAST behavior of the stock market.  It is a widespread assumption that the past will predict the future.

I;m not so sure. The same conditions that caused the big crash in 2008 ARE STILL THERE.  I cannot see how an identical crash will not happen - the only difference is that anyone proposing "Son of TARP" will be politically a dead man walking. 



-- derivatives and exotic instruments.  Yeah.

If you are in the stock market- then I understand.   I tho have had it with that scam.

What would it take to fix the  2008 troubles?

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RE: Imagine there's no stock market... - 6/6/2010 7:40:18 PM   
willbeurdaddy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: vincentML

RO, your chart is skewed. $15,000 average income per tax unit. Who was paying taxes in 1933? Who had a job in 1933? 25% unemployment. Taxes were levied only on the wealthiest segment of the populaton. Sneaky statistics, bro.


that has nothing to do with it. the chart was in 2006 dollars. converted back to 1933 dollars his own chart would show $1000 average per tax unit...since there were very few two income households thats close enough to an average $1000 salary

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RE: Imagine there's no stock market... - 6/6/2010 7:40:24 PM   
vincentML


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Status: offline 		Uh, yes, Steven. You said it with better clarity then I did. That was the reason I used the Japanese market as an example. It was an asset bubble just as our stock market, housing market and now perhaps the gold market were/are. Oh yes, and now the bond market as well.

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RE: Imagine there's no stock market... - 6/6/2010 7:51:11 PM   
Musicmystery


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quote:

an asset bubble

Again, a little homework, a little attention to fundamentals.

It's not big brother--it's people jumping on what they see as a trend with no thought as to what they're buying or at what price.

If you went to buy a car, something in say the Toyota Corolla range (style/price wise, whatever make/model you prefer), and you were told the market was hot, and that all these cars now cost $60,000 and looked like they'd go still higher--would you buy one? Or would you sensibly say "Something's wrong here" and wait for the prices to drop to again reflect the fundamentals of the car?

Same thing. If you pay $30 million for a business worth $5 million, or if you pay $200 for a stock worth $120, the only problem is that you're making an irrational purchase. The problem isn't the marketplace--it's the irrational buyer.

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RE: Imagine there's no stock market... - 6/6/2010 7:51:35 PM   
pahunkboy


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From: Central Pennsylvania
Status: offline 		JP Morgan Class Action Suit will lead to silver explosion! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yBA4iUSl9uQ&feature=player_embedded



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RE: Imagine there's no stock market... - 6/6/2010 8:18:41 PM   
vincentML


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quote:

ORIGINAL: willbeurdaddy


quote:

ORIGINAL: vincentML

RO, your chart is skewed. $15,000 average income per tax unit. Who was paying taxes in 1933? Who had a job in 1933? 25% unemployment. Taxes were levied only on the wealthiest segment of the populaton. Sneaky statistics, bro.



that has nothing to do with it. the chart was in 2006 dollars. converted back to 1933 dollars his own chart would show $1000 average per tax unit...since there were very few two income households thats close enough to an average $1000 salary


Here is RO's quote from his post #204:

quote:

average income in 33 was 11000

um whats your point? Thats what I said.


RO did not make the conversion from 2006 dollars from what I read.

I would not argue with the $1000 figure that you provided. It may very well be accurate. I still would point out that whatever the amount is it does not represent the average salary for the working population but the average for the taxed population which leads me to conclude that the averge working salary was lower in 1933 than even the $1000. I was able to find that there were 55 tax brackets that year with the lowest rate at 4% and the highest at 63% but there is no clear indication of an average salary. A large portion of the country was still rural. that would scale the figure downward I think.

Also, there was a huge part of the population who were unemployed and not taxed which skews the chart.

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Our lives begin to end the day we become silent about things that matter. ~ MLK Jr.

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RE: Imagine there's no stock market... - 6/6/2010 8:20:46 PM   
pahunkboy


Posts: 33061
Joined: 2/26/2006
From: Central Pennsylvania
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Musicmystery

quote:

an asset bubble

Again, a little homework, a little attention to fundamentals.

It's not big brother--it's people jumping on what they see as a trend with no thought as to what they're buying or at what price.

If you went to buy a car, something in say the Toyota Corolla range (style/price wise, whatever make/model you prefer), and you were told the market was hot, and that all these cars now cost $60,000 and looked like they'd go still higher--would you buy one? Or would you sensibly say "Something's wrong here" and wait for the prices to drop to again reflect the fundamentals of the car?

Same thing. If you pay $30 million for a business worth $5 million, or if you pay $200 for a stock worth $120, the only problem is that you're making an irrational purchase. The problem isn't the marketplace--it's the irrational buyer.



Thats right.   You need a Phd to properly invest in paper crap.

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RE: Imagine there's no stock market... - 6/6/2010 8:24:23 PM   
Musicmystery


Posts: 30259
Joined: 3/14/2005
Status: offline 		Look.

Fuck off. You don't like me, fine. Get bent.

Address the points or keep your fucking mouth shut.


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RE: Imagine there's no stock market... - 6/6/2010 8:25:49 PM   
vincentML


Posts: 9980
Joined: 10/31/2009
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Musicmystery

quote:

an asset bubble

Again, a little homework, a little attention to fundamentals.

It's not big brother--it's people jumping on what they see as a trend with no thought as to what they're buying or at what price.

If you went to buy a car, something in say the Toyota Corolla range (style/price wise, whatever make/model you prefer), and you were told the market was hot, and that all these cars now cost $60,000 and looked like they'd go still higher--would you buy one? Or would you sensibly say "Something's wrong here" and wait for the prices to drop to again reflect the fundamentals of the car?

Same thing. If you pay $30 million for a business worth $5 million, or if you pay $200 for a stock worth $120, the only problem is that you're making an irrational purchase. The problem isn't the marketplace--it's the irrational buyer.


The Market is made up of sellers and buyers. If they are irrational then the Market is irrational and there is no way to arrive at an intrinsic value for a stock. What's more, putting irrationality aside, since the value of any stock is the spread between the last bid and the last ask a stock really has no intrinsic value, so your example of a stock that is worth $120 has no basis in reality. This goes for the price of gold and all asssets imo. The only reality is the auction. So, it is all a house of cards.

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Our lives begin to end the day we become silent about things that matter. ~ MLK Jr.

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Profile   Post #: 293
RE: Imagine there's no stock market... - 6/6/2010 8:29:16 PM   
Musicmystery


Posts: 30259
Joined: 3/14/2005
Status: offline 		You were talking specifically about an asset bubble.

But suit yourself. Stay away from the demon market. No basis at all. Business is fictional.

Please don't be offended that the rest of us enjoy the opportunity to profit from our investments.

Thanks.




< Message edited by Musicmystery -- 6/6/2010 8:30:31 PM >

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RE: Imagine there's no stock market... - 6/6/2010 8:31:50 PM   
pahunkboy


Posts: 33061
Joined: 2/26/2006
From: Central Pennsylvania
Status: offline 		US financial markets may be shut down on Monday It is my collective read that US financial markets may finally be shut down on Monday June 7, 2010, if Fed Desks don't intervene on Sunday night.

We have never been this close to the inevitable outcome.

Every single day, it is becoming more visible to the masses that a large portion of the western civilization is bankrupt with no savings, no production, no growth, no future prospects./snip

http://www.xtrenders.com/2010/06/us-financial-markets-may-be-shut-down.html

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RE: Imagine there's no stock market... - 6/6/2010 8:32:40 PM   
vincentML


Posts: 9980
Joined: 10/31/2009
Status: offline 		No need to get testy. I was just suggesting some possible flaws in the way people think and talk about investments.

ETA I didn't say business was fictional. I said the value of a stock might be fictional.

< Message edited by vincentML -- 6/6/2010 8:34:09 PM >

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Our lives begin to end the day we become silent about things that matter. ~ MLK Jr.

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RE: Imagine there's no stock market... - 6/6/2010 8:36:01 PM   
pahunkboy


Posts: 33061
Joined: 2/26/2006
From: Central Pennsylvania
Status: offline 		June 7 (Bloomberg) -- Asia stocks tumbled, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropping the most since March 2009/snip
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aVVoBqsMZ_os&pos=1


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Profile   Post #: 297
RE: Imagine there's no stock market... - 6/6/2010 8:38:40 PM   
pahunkboy


Posts: 33061
Joined: 2/26/2006
From: Central Pennsylvania
Status: offline 		The New York Stock Exchange and NYSE Amex cash platforms invoked a rule today that aims to smooth the opening of U.S. equities when futures and overseas markets signal high levels of price volatility. Rule 48 halts the requirement for market makers to send pre-opening indications, or bid and ask prices created in auctions used to determine a stock’s opening price. The regulation is used only when the “potential for extremely high market-wide volatility would likely impair floor-wide operations at the exchange,” NYSE Euronext said./snip
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a5MMoynzY4hI&pos=4

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RE: Imagine there's no stock market... - 6/6/2010 8:40:16 PM   
popeye1250


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From: New Hampshire
Status: offline 		I like the stock market.

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RE: Imagine there's no stock market... - 6/6/2010 8:41:06 PM   
willbeurdaddy


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Joined: 4/8/2006
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quote:

ORIGINAL: vincentML


quote:

ORIGINAL: willbeurdaddy


quote:

ORIGINAL: vincentML

RO, your chart is skewed. $15,000 average income per tax unit. Who was paying taxes in 1933? Who had a job in 1933? 25% unemployment. Taxes were levied only on the wealthiest segment of the populaton. Sneaky statistics, bro.



that has nothing to do with it. the chart was in 2006 dollars. converted back to 1933 dollars his own chart would show $1000 average per tax unit...since there were very few two income households thats close enough to an average $1000 salary


Here is RO's quote from his post #204:

quote:

average income in 33 was 11000

um whats your point? Thats what I said.


RO did not make the conversion from 2006 dollars from what I read.

I would not argue with the $1000 figure that you provided. It may very well be accurate. I still would point out that whatever the amount is it does not represent the average salary for the working population but the average for the taxed population which leads me to conclude that the averge working salary was lower in 1933 than even the $1000. I was able to find that there were 55 tax brackets that year with the lowest rate at 4% and the highest at 63% but there is no clear indication of an average salary. A large portion of the country was still rural. that would scale the figure downward I think.

Also, there was a huge part of the population who were unemployed and not taxed which skews the chart.

l
The point is average income wasnt 11,000 in 1933. This is his source:
http://www.collarchat.com/photo_view.asp?file=0;3242679

Read the legend on the vertical axis. 2006 dollars. He was talking out of his RO. (rectal orifice)

< Message edited by willbeurdaddy -- 6/6/2010 8:43:15 PM >

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