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RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American domin... - 4/18/2006 10:07:05 AM   
Lordandmaster


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Status: offline 		Well, the fact that there are TWO names means they don't have ONE Tony.

But I really don't believe the whole CCP would crumble if Hu Jintao (or anyone else) were to be assassinated.  It's a very carefully organized bureaucracy.  You'd have to take out hundreds of people to cause any organizational confusion.

quote:

ORIGINAL: UtopianRanger

Hu Jintao or Liang Guanglie - Pick your poison 

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RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American domin... - 4/18/2006 11:34:00 AM   
JohnWarren


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lordandmaster

Well, the fact that there are TWO names means they don't have ONE Tony.

But I really don't believe the whole CCP would crumble if Hu Jintao (or anyone else) were to be assassinated.  It's a very carefully organized bureaucracy.  You'd have to take out hundreds of people to cause any organizational confusion.



Actually, it's been a rather self-carnivorous oligarchy; one of the keynotes of recent Chinese culture is a tradition of getting rid of anyone who could offer a threat to one's power, so under a group of ten or so men, there is a huge gap of ambition and talent.  Killing ten or even a hundred guys is a lot better than killing millions.

It's significant that one of the major rules of life in China when I lived there (and I don't see it changing much) is "the nail that sticks up gets hammered first."

They are somewhat more circumspect than Mao when he organized the "Thousand Flowers" campaign precisely to smoke out those who had ambition or devient ideas, but the culture is still there.



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RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American domin... - 4/18/2006 12:37:39 PM   
caitlyn


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Status: offline 		Can you, or anyone really, recommend any good reading if someone were interested in learning more about China's current political climate? As a student, I would have to limit myself to one of two books, so was hoping to find something that accurately hits the high points.
 
Thanks in advance!

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RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American domin... - 4/18/2006 1:10:25 PM   
JohnWarren


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Status: offline 		I'm not aware of any recent books that do a good job.  (We used to have a saying "Visit China for a week, write a book; visit for a month, write an article; visit for a year, sit mute in absolute confusion.")

Most of my information comes from periodicals like The Economist and Janes Intelligence Digest.

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RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American domin... - 4/18/2006 1:34:57 PM   
mnottertail


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Status: offline 		Interestingly enough there is a great deal of political info on the web concerning china....seems like people have been giving them a number and watching them closely for some time.

Ron 

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RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American domin... - 4/18/2006 1:37:01 PM   
ArtCatDom


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quote:

ORIGINAL: DelightMachine

quote:

ORIGINAL: cloudboy
If the US spends itself into the ground by beefing up the military during peacetime, its hard for me to see the upside.


One upside: Being able to bomb Afghanistan with bombers that took off from Nebraska and never touched ground again till they returned to Nebraska. And topple the government of a landlocked country on the other side of the world pretty damn fast. I think toppling that government really helped our security -- it seems to have kept Al Qaeda off balance enough so they couldn't hit back within this country. It's the only explanation I can think of for why we haven't been hit with another atrocity on our shores.


Wow, can you name that mystical bomber that uses super fuel and mega effecient engines to do THAT bombing run?

Get serious.

*meow*

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Profile   Post #: 146
RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American domin... - 4/18/2006 1:45:03 PM   
ArtCatDom


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quote:

ORIGINAL: DelightMachine

quote:

ORIGINAL: cloudboy
If the US spends itself into the ground by beefing up the military during peacetime, its hard for me to see the upside.


One upside: Being able to bomb Afghanistan with bombers that took off from Nebraska and never touched ground again till they returned to Nebraska. And topple the government of a landlocked country on the other side of the world pretty damn fast. I think toppling that government really helped our security -- it seems to have kept Al Qaeda off balance enough so they couldn't hit back within this country. It's the only explanation I can think of for why we haven't been hit with another atrocity on our shores.


Additional thoughts after the shock of such an absurd claim has worn off:

The reason we haven't seen another atrocity is the difficulty in pulling off such stunts in general and their usual rarity. Terrorist attacks of the nature of the WTC bombing, the USS Cole bombing, the French rail attack attempt and the British subway attack are exceedingly rare. Across the entire world such things happen once a year in a busy time for terrorist activity.

Also I would note that we do not need to spend nearly as much on our military in order to maintain technological superiority and a ready response system. Start by eliminating pipe dream projects like Star Wars. Continue by reforming the military purchase system. They can buy Black and Decker hammers that would far exceed the quality of the hammers they currently use for literally less than a third of the cost buying top shelf product at full retail price. Finally, they need to overhaul the funding of R&D generally, we spend far far far too much on prototyping and initial purchases (though this is caused by the overall spending system, we need to ensure our R&D dollars are efficiently spent.

Who knows, if we fixed the spending issue, we might actually have enough cash to buy body armour for our soldiers.

*meow*

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RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American domin... - 4/18/2006 1:53:50 PM   
Lordandmaster


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Status: offline 		Andrew J. Nathan and Bruce Gilley, China's New Rulers: The Secret Files, 2nd edition (New York, 2003).

Perry Link is also a very insightful writer, but he tends to produce articles, not books.  The problem with books on contemporary China is that they tend to grow obsolete very quickly.

I agree with JW that The Economist, though usually derided as pessimistic, tends to be well-informed regarding China.  But I don't agree that China is usefully characterized as an oligarchy.  The bureaucracy has proliferated, and the days when the whole country was ruled by ten old men are long gone.  Some regions are dangerously autonomous already; removing Hu Jintao (or just about anyone you'd like in Beijing) isn't going to affect the government very much in, say, the immense new Chongqing zone.

quote:

ORIGINAL: caitlyn

Can you, or anyone really, recommend any good reading if someone were interested in learning more about China's current political climate? As a student, I would have to limit myself to one of two books, so was hoping to find something that accurately hits the high points.
 
Thanks in advance!


< Message edited by Lordandmaster -- 4/18/2006 1:55:02 PM >

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RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American domin... - 4/18/2006 2:01:46 PM   
ArtCatDom


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quote:

ORIGINAL: caitlyn
As usual, your points are very well thought out Mr. Warren.
 
Part of the difficulty with this discussion is the way people instantly make militarists out of anyone simply speaking the cold hard facts.
 
I think war is to be avoided if at all possible. I think this war in Iraq is very foolish. I think we should try to work with other nations towards the end of gaining peaceful solutions to our problems. That said, there is a concept that is hard to dispute, although many will try.
 
When you read history, you can't help notice that militarily strong nations, can survive corruption, economic disaster, madman leadership, natural disasters, degenerate societies, poor political skill, and many other things. You also notice the militarily weak, not surviving very long. at all. The idea that corrupt businesses, poor political skill, etc, etc, etc ... will doom the United States, is very possible, but according to history, not probably, while we have such a strong military.


What history books are you reading? Ever hear of a military junta? Howabout those military dictatorships? What about those dictatorships that were enforced by storng militaries (which is nearly all of them)?

A weak military tends to lead towards being pushed around or conquered. This is not always true however it is by far the norm.

A strong military tends to lead towards imperialistic behavior and consolidation of power. Again, not always true, but certainly the norm.

I think the founding fathers of America had the right idea. Avoid the great authortarian dangers of a standing military by depending on a well-armed, well-guided and well-trained militia. (For reference, being well trained and directed is almost exactly the meaning of the Constitutional phrase "well-regulated", which means kept in good working order.)

*meow*

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Profile   Post #: 149
RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American domin... - 4/18/2006 2:10:14 PM   
Moloch


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quote:


Wow, can you name that mystical bomber that uses super fuel and mega effecient engines to do THAT bombing run?

Get serious.

*meow*


Jeez, drink your cofee yet?
Im sure he meant that mid air  refueling was included too.
You are a professional meat bomb you should know this stuff...

< Message edited by Moloch -- 4/18/2006 2:14:41 PM >

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RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American domin... - 4/18/2006 2:38:31 PM   
JohnWarren


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From: Delray Beach, FL
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quote:

ORIGINAL: ArtCatDom


quote:

ORIGINAL: DelightMachine

quote:

ORIGINAL: cloudboy
If the US spends itself into the ground by beefing up the military during peacetime, its hard for me to see the upside.


One upside: Being able to bomb Afghanistan with bombers that took off from Nebraska and never touched ground again till they returned to Nebraska. And topple the government of a landlocked country on the other side of the world pretty damn fast. I think toppling that government really helped our security -- it seems to have kept Al Qaeda off balance enough so they couldn't hit back within this country. It's the only explanation I can think of for why we haven't been hit with another atrocity on our shores.


Wow, can you name that mystical bomber that uses super fuel and mega effecient engines to do THAT bombing run?

Get serious.

*meow*

I don't see the words "without refueling" in the reply.  I believe he's referring to midair refueling which is pretty handy if you don't want to have to inform "friendly" countries that bombers are on their way.  The technique doesn't require enroute bases and the bombers can squawk "commercial" on their transponders.

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Profile   Post #: 151
RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American domin... - 4/18/2006 2:49:16 PM   
ArtCatDom


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Joined: 1/20/2005
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Moloch



quote:


Wow, can you name that mystical bomber that uses super fuel and mega effecient engines to do THAT bombing run?

Get serious.

*meow*


Jeez, drink your cofee yet?
Im sure he meant that mid air  refueling was included too.
You are a professional meat bomb you should know this stuff...


Even the B-2 only has an effective range of about getting to Afghanistan from Nebraska. Unloaded it could *just* make it back to Nebraska WITH a refeuling. A fully loaded B-2 would require multiple refeulings to make such a run. It's still an absurd assertion.

We have aircraft carriers and foward hangers for a reason.

*meow*



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Profile   Post #: 152
RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American domin... - 4/18/2006 2:58:05 PM   
ArtCatDom


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Joined: 1/20/2005
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quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnWarren

quote:

ORIGINAL: ArtCatDom


quote:

ORIGINAL: DelightMachine

quote:

ORIGINAL: cloudboy
If the US spends itself into the ground by beefing up the military during peacetime, its hard for me to see the upside.


One upside: Being able to bomb Afghanistan with bombers that took off from Nebraska and never touched ground again till they returned to Nebraska. And topple the government of a landlocked country on the other side of the world pretty damn fast. I think toppling that government really helped our security -- it seems to have kept Al Qaeda off balance enough so they couldn't hit back within this country. It's the only explanation I can think of for why we haven't been hit with another atrocity on our shores.


Wow, can you name that mystical bomber that uses super fuel and mega effecient engines to do THAT bombing run?

Get serious.

*meow*

I don't see the words "without refueling" in the reply.  I believe he's referring to midair refueling which is pretty handy if you don't want to have to inform "friendly" countries that bombers are on their way.  The technique doesn't require enroute bases and the bombers can squawk "commercial" on their transponders.


*nod* You're correct that mid-air feuling is very useful for certain missions. However, keep in mind the expense and difficulty of such requirements (mid-air fueling). Having a bomber require three to four refuelings on a mission flight IS ridiculous. (It takes nearly an end of the world scenario or an utterly "non-compliant" region in order to authorize such flights. Some spook directed missions also use such missions for "strategic bombing" (that is to say, as per your suggestion, actions we wish our allies to nothing of). We have the capability, but to assert it as though it was matter of course (as he did) with the implication that was our tactic in Afghanistan (which it was not) and with the implication that it was without complication is just utterly wrong.

*meow*



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Profile   Post #: 153
RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American domin... - 4/18/2006 2:59:54 PM   
Moloch


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quote:

-2 only has an effective range of about getting to Afghanistan from Nebraska. Unloaded it could *just* make it back to Nebraska WITH a refeuling. A fully loaded B-2 would require multiple refeulings to make such a run. It's still an absurd assertion.

We have aircraft carriers and foward hangers for a reason.
quote:

ORIGINAL: ArtCatDom


quote:

ORIGINAL: Moloch



quote:


Wow, can you name that mystical bomber that uses super fuel and mega effecient engines to do THAT bombing run?

Get serious.

*meow*


Jeez, drink your cofee yet?
Im sure he meant that mid air  refueling was included too.
You are a professional meat bomb you should know this stuff...


Even the B-2 only has an effective range of about getting to Afghanistan from Nebraska. Unloaded it could *just* make it back to Nebraska WITH a refeuling. A fully loaded B-2 would require multiple refeulings to make such a run. It's still an absurd assertion.

We have aircraft carriers and foward hangers for a reason.

*meow*





They actually fly from nebraska to Iraq with refueling.... 

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Profile   Post #: 154
RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American domin... - 4/18/2006 3:06:38 PM   
caitlyn


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quote:

ORIGINAL: ArtCatDom
Wow, can you name that mystical bomber that uses super fuel and mega effecient engines to do THAT bombing run?


Five minutes of reasearch, finds:
 
The United States currently has six combat aircraft that can fly around the world with a full payload: F15E, F22, F-111, B1, B2, B52. I got this off the United States Air Force website.
 
All that seems to be required, is the ability of refuel in mid-air. One would assume that there is some sort of automated system to let pilots rest, although my five minutes research didn't find any info on this.
 
Another site I found in my five minute search talked about Offutt Air Force Base in Nebraska (linked from the USAF website), and claimed that planes from there can bomb any part of the world and return without ever landing. Apparently we have had this capability since the Vietnam war.

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RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American domin... - 4/18/2006 3:46:39 PM   
JohnWarren


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From: Delray Beach, FL
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quote:

ORIGINAL: caitlyn


Five minutes of reasearch, finds:
 
The United States currently has six combat aircraft that can fly around the world with a full payload: F15E, F22, F-111, B1, B2, B52. I got this off the United States Air Force website.
 
All that seems to be required, is the ability of refuel in mid-air. One would assume that there is some sort of automated system to let pilots rest, although my five minutes research didn't find any info on this.
 
Another site I found in my five minute search talked about Offutt Air Force Base in Nebraska (linked from the USAF website), and claimed that planes from there can bomb any part of the world and return without ever landing. Apparently we have had this capability since the Vietnam war.

Crew rest is a major problem.  Some aircraft like the B52 can carry reserve crews and can install bunk space for the off duty crew, but most can't.  This leaves us dependent on macho and drugs, the latter have side effects that have may have resulted in blue on blue casualities in recent operations because they dulled the preceptions of the crew.

Urine can be handled by external catheters, but shit.....  [evil smile] One small pleasure in the life of a ground pounder is seeing the lordly flyboys leap from their silver steeds and run bowlegged for the nearest head.

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Profile   Post #: 156
RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American domin... - 4/18/2006 3:55:06 PM   
Moloch


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Joined: 6/25/2005
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quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnWarren

quote:

ORIGINAL: caitlyn


Five minutes of reasearch, finds:
 
The United States currently has six combat aircraft that can fly around the world with a full payload: F15E, F22, F-111, B1, B2, B52. I got this off the United States Air Force website.
 
All that seems to be required, is the ability of refuel in mid-air. One would assume that there is some sort of automated system to let pilots rest, although my five minutes research didn't find any info on this.


 
Another site I found in my five minute search talked about Offutt Air Force Base in Nebraska (linked from the USAF website), and claimed that planes from there can bomb any part of the world and return without ever landing. Apparently we have had this capability since the Vietnam war.

Crew rest is a major problem.  Some aircraft like the B52 can carry reserve crews and can install bunk space for the off duty crew, but most can't.  This leaves us dependent on macho and drugs, the latter have side effects that have may have resulted in blue on blue casualities in recent operations because they dulled the preceptions of the crew.

Urine can be handled by external catheters, but shit.....  [evil smile] One small pleasure in the life of a ground pounder is seeing the lordly flyboys leap from their silver steeds and run bowlegged for the nearest head.


B-2  have shitters,  I belive PIC  and FO  take turns resting in flight

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RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American domin... - 4/18/2006 4:26:51 PM   
cloudboy


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Try reading THE CHINESE ART OF WINNING, Strategems for Success, Chao Hsiu Chen. Not exactly a poly sci book, but eminently insightful and useful to boot.

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Profile   Post #: 158
RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American domin... - 4/18/2006 4:36:38 PM   
Moloch


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quote:

ORIGINAL: cloudboy


Try reading THE CHINESE ART OF WINNING, Strategems for Success, Chao Hsiu Chen. Not exactly a poly sci book, but eminently insightful and useful to boot.

The  CHINESE ART OF WINNING  is throwing people at the enemy untill they run out of bullets.

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Profile   Post #: 159
RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American domin... - 4/18/2006 4:47:22 PM   
JohnWarren


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From: Delray Beach, FL
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Moloch

quote:

ORIGINAL: cloudboy


Try reading THE CHINESE ART OF WINNING, Strategems for Success, Chao Hsiu Chen. Not exactly a poly sci book, but eminently insightful and useful to boot.

The  CHINESE ART OF WINNING  is throwing people at the enemy untill they run out of bullets.


I forget what book it was in but the author quoted a grunt who after reading an article about how the Chinese were throwing "horde after horde" against the American line.

The quote?  "Hey, Sergeant, how many hordes in a chink platoon?"



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