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RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American domin... - 4/14/2006 12:21:48 PM   
ArtCatDom


Posts: 478
Joined: 1/20/2005
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: DelightMachine
Art, if we recognized Russia and China rather than invaded them, that was because we had sense enough not to engage in nuclear war. It's an apples-to-oranges comparison you're making, OK, buddy? Also, I notice that the left has become much more critical of Russia and China the more capitalist those countries have become. No coincidence.


It's apples to apples. We still enforce the embargo on Cuba as though the Cold War didn't end over a decade ago. We are still using Cold War policies. I hear surprisingly little criticism of Russia despite the fact that they are renationalizing numerous industries and that the remnants of the KGB have utterly infected the "new" government. The only time we push back on China for its human rights abuses is in stump speeches and when the "liberal" media grabs on to a "good story". If it's OK to look the other way for these countries and to assert its ok to have normalized relations because the Cold War is over, it's nothing but base hypocracy to continue our policies in the Americas based on Cold War premises.

And I agree with you on one thing at least: The left makes it seem like having profit motive is akin to planning a child prostitution ring.

quote:

I'm trying to unravel where the morality is supposed to lie here. If you slaughter your own people, that's supposed to be all right if they don't struggle against you, but if the U.S. intervenes to remove these regimes it's "utterly unacceptable and unethical." Actually, there are people who have struggled against Castro. Many of them are in jail. Others had to escape on boats. They come to America and your fellow lefties call them nuts.


Quickly, I'm not a leftie. I've no desire for a nanny state. Politicians do not know how to take care of me better than I do. I'm certainly no rightie either. I've no desire for a police state. Politicians can't be trusted to follow basic campaign rules, let alone be trusted to watchdog broad sweeping police powers.

Oh come on now, I know you can read better than that. I didn't say that invading to depose despots was necessary immoral. I said suppressing resistance to despots is "utterly unacceptable and unethical". Preventing democratic and republican reform because we don't like the popular sentiments is vile.

Some anti-Castro people are absolutely out of their gourd. A lot of them are just foul, like those dirty SOBs who used Elian in a game of political football. We've harbored quite a number of Cuban dissident terrorists over the years. To Gee Dubya's credit, during his term we've cracked down quietly but hard on arms smuggling and known vicious terrorists among the Cuban population in the States. To be sure though, Cuba is an oppressed country under dictatorial rule. I make no illusions Castro is a "good man".

By the by, my comment about their vaccine production was intended to be paired with Ven.'s oil capacity. These are cash strapped nations who despite all rhetoric would be more than grateful to participate in America's hungry market. Both are nicely located in areas easily defended by the US and involve significantly lower production and shipping costs than other sources. The routine vaccine shortages the US suffers would be heavily allieviated by Cuban medicines, which are proven to be cheap safe and effective. (As ironic as it may be, Cuba is among the most active nations in humanitarian work, particularly in the delivery of medicine and medical staff.)

Focusing more on South America for natural resources, especially oil, is of strategic importance I believe. In my *opinion*, better to fund some socialists than to fund the Wahabi and Salafist (Islamic fundies) Saudi Princes who fund the radical mosques throughout the Near East. Better to give the money to a filthy communist nation than to a country run by Sharia law like Saudi Arabia. It just makes sense to deal with countries with have much greater geographical and cultural ties to the United States. Secular Christian neighbors or fundementalist Islamic nations across the world ... doesn't seem like much of a difficult choice to me.

quote:

quote:

And by the by Delight: F*@k you.


Thank you for the offer, Sweetheart, but I'm wearing a collar of consideration. You'll have to see my Mistress about that. I have to tell you that I'll be recommending to her that she refuse because you're just not my type.


Dang it, I'd thought I'd try some hot man on man action! ;)

More seriously, sorry but you really hit a nerve. Doubt my patriotism if you will, your perogative. But, to say I *hate* this country is of deep personal offense. I am very passionate about political issues because of my deep love for this country, warts and all. to say or imply I despise the States is a world away from the truth.

quote:

quote:

I've bled in service to this country. Literally.


Sincerely, I thank you for your service.


I have no doubts of your sincerity, but no thanks are required. I served because I believed it was the right thing to do. Despite my experiences, I still believe it was the right thing to do. It made me a libertarian. It made me more aware of the world. It matured me. It made me very much appreciate the rights, priveleges and comforts most people take for granted.

quote:

No, Art, it's not speaking out that's the duty. THINKING is the duty. That involves more than spouting off. You have a feeling that America is doing bad things in the world far in excess of the good. You actually do put forth reasons for that, and I give you credit for it, but they're not well-thought-out reasons. If you actually tried to approach the question of what's best for people in America and outside of it, without preconceptions, and started doing a little more thinking, I believe you'd be better off. I don't think you're stupid or completely closed minded. You do seem to come down against America all the time, though, and you've expressed no concern for this country's legitimate security needs. Sounds like hate to me. 


Agreed, some thought needs to be invested. I disagree that my positions are not well thought out. They are exceedingly well considered.

However I do believe America has ventured down a path that is quite wrong. When we involve ourselves in conflicts like the conflict between Russia and Afghanistan, we need to follow through on our promises to help them rebuild and restore infrastructure. When we provide leadership and military training to Central and South Americans, we need to provide them with actual diplomatic and tactical training, not Orwellian propaganda and terrorism training. On the domestic side, behaving like the Bill of Rights actually exists would be a good start. That means if a church will marry a gay couple, there's not boo the government should be able to say about it. We need to stop criminalizing personal and interpersonal behavior (drug use, etc.) that's obstensibly protected by the 9th, 10th and 14th Amendments when all it does is create crime and makes the private prison industry rich. (The real addiction in the War on Drugs is the addiction to the War on Drugs funding so many agencies and police departments practically grovel for at times.)

What has America done right? We have (unless they fubar it & go for amnesty, again) one of the best immigration systems in the world. We have a low unemployment rate. The Fed has kept the economy remarkably balanced. Despite the sharply limited rights (compared to the Constitution's promises), we enjoy a remarkable freedom in the United States. The internet we're using right now was the baby of American military men and academics. The United States has some of the most advanced medical care available in the world. We have a justice system that while perverted by the influence of money is exceedingly fair in comparison with almost any court system on the planet. We toppled the Taliban. We lead the NATO offensive against Milosovic. We fostered a wonderful environment for the tech boom. We've demanded greater accountability and internal policing at the UN. We provide a staggering amount of foreign aid. We're free to vote our conscience, even if the candidate is a member of the KKK, the tinfoil skywatcher club or the Communist Party (roughly all in the same neighborhood of loony by my count). I'm free enough here to say our President is a dirty rotten coke addled scumbag of a cockroach turd without facing jail or civil penalties. The list of good reaches just as far as the list of bad.

*meow*

(in reply to DelightMachine)
Profile   Post #: 81
RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American domin... - 4/14/2006 3:49:01 PM   
DelightMachine


Posts: 652
Joined: 1/21/2006
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: ArtCatDom

We still enforce the embargo on Cuba as though the Cold War didn't end over a decade ago. We are still using Cold War policies. [SNIP] 

quote:

I'm trying to unravel where the morality is supposed to lie here. If you slaughter your own people, that's supposed to be all right if they don't struggle against you, but if the U.S. intervenes to remove these regimes it's "utterly unacceptable and unethical." Actually, there are people who have struggled against Castro. Many of them are in jail. Others had to escape on boats. They come to America and your fellow lefties call them nuts.


[SNIP]  I didn't say that invading to depose despots was necessary immoral. I said suppressing resistance to despots is "utterly unacceptable and unethical". Preventing democratic and republican reform because we don't like the popular sentiments is vile.


Actually, I disagree that it's vile, at least all the time. If, to take a totally hypothetical example, the Palestinians elected a government run by people pledged to the destruction of Israel, it might well be the best thing to help put a despot in charge of the government of Palestine. It's the results in these cases that make it right or wrong, not whether or not the government has some sort of electoral mandate.

Now, to make it complicated, I think it's probably a very good idea to get the Palestinians in the habit of electing their governments and then facing whatever consequences result (like loss of foreign aid). But again, that's a strategic and tactical consideration, not a moral consideration. Overall it's moral to promote democracy. In specific cases, for specific times, it may not be. Within the United States, it's moral for us to support democracy and constitutional government because it works here and everyone's rights are best protected that way. I'm not saying everything is relative, but some things depend on circumstances. 

quote:

To be sure though, Cuba is an oppressed country under dictatorial rule. I make no illusions Castro is a "good man".

By the by, my comment about their vaccine production was intended to be paired with Ven.'s oil capacity. These are cash strapped nations who despite all rhetoric would be more than grateful to participate in America's hungry market. Both are nicely located in areas easily defended by the US and involve significantly lower production and shipping costs than other sources. The routine vaccine shortages the US suffers would be heavily allieviated by Cuban medicines, which are proven to be cheap safe and effective. (As ironic as it may be, Cuba is among the most active nations in humanitarian work, particularly in the delivery of medicine and medical staff.)


I think I was reasonable in interpreting your original comments, but I'll accept these most recent comments as what you think. But even in this latest post you're still passionately opposed to the United States' dealings with human rights violators. But when we have some opposition to other human rights violators -- Cuba or Venezuala -- you're opposed to that as well.

If you want to make a strategic argument that it's better to do things that wind up supporting Castro's regime or Chavez' regime because overall the result will be more humanitarian, I would disagree when it comes to Castro. I think on balance the world would be much better off if Castro's regime was overthrown, even at some cost in money and lives. But I think a good argument could be made against my position. As long as you're not overlooking Castro's inhumanity, I'll leave it at that.

As for Hugo Chavez, I worry about the direction he's headed. He's had some dealings with revolutionaries in Columbia and is building up his armed forces. Not a good sign -- even in terms of humanitarianism.

If you're going to point out that there are conflicts between pressing for human rights and other values, even humanitarian values, when it comes to Cuba or Venezuala -- well, recognize that there are similar conflicts elsewhere. If we press for human rights in China, we might not get help we need from China regarding nuclear proliferation with North Korea and Iran. We may have to lay off the human rights a bit with China until we get those bigger problems settled. Just how much we do that is a delicate question that I don't know enough about to answer. The answer isn't going to be simple.    

quote:

Doubt my patriotism if you will, your perogative. But, to say I *hate* this country is of deep personal offense. I am very passionate about political issues because of my deep love for this country, warts and all. to say or imply I despise the States is a world away from the truth.
[SNIP]
I disagree that my positions are not well thought out. They are exceedingly well considered. [SNIP]

What has America done right? [SNIP] The list of good reaches just as far as the list of bad.


All right, you've convinced me you don't hate America and I now don't question your patriotism. And you've shown me you do think about the issues, although we disagree. Maybe we'll learn from each other in the future. Be well.

_____________________________

I'd rather be in
Chargoggagoggmanchauggagoggchaubunagungamaugg

(in reply to ArtCatDom)
Profile   Post #: 82
RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American domin... - 4/14/2006 5:14:19 PM   
ScooterTrash


Posts: 1407
Joined: 1/24/2005
From: Indiana
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: DelightMachine

I can't find the post right now, but I think it was ScooterTrash who said China's technology is still far behind ours. I agree, but I want to point out that a country's ability to invent technology, bring it to market or bring it to the military is not constant over time. Japan began by copying U.S. products, but has become much more inventive in electronics, for instance. If a nation makes the right moves, it can go far over the course of decades.
DM, I will agree with you to a point on this, but this time around the US, a large portion anyway, are being much more selective about how and when we volunteer technical information. I think there was a lesson learned after WWII, that and we are just plain paranoid about giving up any more of our industrial might than we already have. Right now we are but one of the nations who are utilizing "some" of the profit to be gained by purchasing various manufacturing items from China as well as other third world countries. A typical stamping die for instance can be had for half the cost of having them built domestically. The quality of both the design as well as the workmanship is flawed, but it is quite true that if we keep exporting our own technology, at some point they will figure out how to do it right. I regret, that if you are accurate in your predictions, that we, as an industrial nation, cause this downfall by our own greed. The tool shops that I know and many of the manufacturers, 2nd and 3rd tier particularly, are fighting against the OEMs when it comes to outsourcing overseas, just for this very reason. So yes, you absolutely could be right that several decades from now, China may emerge as a player on a global scale...but only if we and some of our European industrial counterparts inadvertently helps them along. No disrespect intended, but I sure hope in the end, you are wrong.

_____________________________

Formal symbolic representation of qualitative entities is doomed to its rightful place of minor significance in a world where flowers and beautiful women abound.
-Albert Einstein

(in reply to DelightMachine)
Profile   Post #: 83
RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American domin... - 4/14/2006 5:35:06 PM   
Lordandmaster


Posts: 10943
Joined: 6/22/2004
Status: offline
This thread has to take the all-time CM prize for talking through one's hat.  How many of you have even been to China?  (Laugh...and no, a trip to the Forbidden City and a three-day stay at the Great Wall Sheraton doesn't count.)  It's been a long time since I've read so many certain and sweeping opinions being thrown around without a shred of real information to support them.

Try purchasing real estate in China and see if you still believe it's "absolutely an emerging superpower."

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chaingang

I still think China could do it now. In 20 years most certainly. That's how you posed the question - with a forward looking view, and I think China is absolutely an emerging superpower. I think it's odd that ScooterTrash identifies China's tendency to emulate others as a fault - what precisely did the Romans do? They copied the Greeks.

(in reply to Chaingang)
Profile   Post #: 84
RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American domin... - 4/14/2006 5:50:51 PM   
mnottertail


Posts: 60698
Joined: 11/3/2004
Status: offline
Well, Lam--

There is alotta asswipe touted so far.  Mostly parotting shitbreathers from the 'New Republic' and such ignorant pap as that. 

Not to Lam, but the rest of you.......

Have you been to war? You who will shape our country somehow, will you set our course for the next millenium?  We can easily discern that if wars are beyond our borders, we can win or retreat with little consequence it the four year election  cycle.

Yet japanese who can take our garbage steel from the us and get coking coal from ceylon and black coal from south africa and on a ship smelt it and sell it back to us cheaper than we can produce it (and don't hand me no shitwipe about how they dont get paid as much as an american worker)..........

I mean goddamnmit?  What do you have to hang your hat to other than that we have military might>
You have no railroads, no infrastucture, tanks would crumble our streets.........hell they are bombing and shit on the streets of Iran, the country is still exigent, we can't even hold up skyscrapers.........

enough,
Ron 



_____________________________

Have they not divided the prey; to every man a damsel or two? Judges 5:30


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Profile   Post #: 85
RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American domin... - 4/14/2006 6:03:59 PM   
MsMacComb


Posts: 808
Joined: 3/30/2005
From: My Mothers womb.
Status: offline
Voter apathy is the culprit which enables our corrupt politicians to continue fucking us and the rest of the world over and up. If the average lame ass USA resident would simply take a moment to educate themselves a bit about current issues before yanking the handle (and  education will NOT come via FOX News) America can/will maintain its strength and influence in the world. Hopefully that influence will be benevolent.

_____________________________

Not looking for anyone for anything, any time.

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Profile   Post #: 86
RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American domin... - 4/14/2006 6:18:20 PM   
mnottertail


Posts: 60698
Joined: 11/3/2004
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: MsMacComb

Voter apathy is the culprit which enables our corrupt politicians to continue fucking us and the rest of the world over and up. If the average lame ass USA resident would simply take a moment to educate themselves a bit about current issues before yanking the handle (and  education will NOT come via FOX News) America can/will maintain its strength and influence in the world. Hopefully that influence will be benevolent.

I am afraid for the most part, it is you and me sister, conra mundo.........the rest are happpily ensconsed in the 'Spin Zone'

LOL,
Ron
(not all of em tho, there are real people here vut the majority is fat dumb and happy and watching the real world via CNN)

_____________________________

Have they not divided the prey; to every man a damsel or two? Judges 5:30


(in reply to MsMacComb)
Profile   Post #: 87
RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American domin... - 4/14/2006 7:02:35 PM   
DelightMachine


Posts: 652
Joined: 1/21/2006
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: ScooterTrash
[SNIP] we are just plain paranoid about giving up any more of our industrial might than we already have. Right now we are but one of the nations who are utilizing "some" of the profit to be gained by purchasing various manufacturing items from China as well as other third world countries. A typical stamping die for instance can be had for half the cost of having them built domestically. The quality of both the design as well as the workmanship is flawed,


This is a subject you know better than I do. I'm not sure we're paranoid ENOUGH when it comes to technology transfers to China. I'd rather they were kept more ignorant for a longer period of time. I think they could still develop their economy, but it would be less dangerous for us.

quote:

but it is quite true that if we keep exporting our own technology, at some point they will figure out how to do it right. I regret, that if you are accurate in your predictions, that we, as an industrial nation, cause this downfall by our own greed. The tool shops that I know and many of the manufacturers, 2nd and 3rd tier particularly, are fighting against the OEMs when it comes to outsourcing overseas, just for this very reason. So yes, you absolutely could be right that several decades from now, China may emerge as a player on a global scale...but only if we and some of our European industrial counterparts inadvertently helps them along. No disrespect intended, but I sure hope in the end, you are wrong.


I don't think the exporting of technology to China will cause it to surge past us. I think that's ultimately a minor part of it. I think that if we continue to innovate and increase our entrepreneurial abilities -- inventing both new technology and new ways of doing business -- I think we can compete against China, India or anyone else. Our economy can be incredibly nimble in reacting to challenges and overcoming them.

I've talked to owners and managers of several manufacturers in Connecticut, including some who make the machines that tool & die businesses use. Now this isn't the only answer and it may not be the best solution or the one that would work in most businesses, but what I hear is that with any commodity-type product, especially when there's no need to get it to market extremely fast and where labor costs are going to be a big part of the price, then economics dictate that it be made in China or some other low-cost labor market.

The manufacturing companies that still make things in Connecticut (at least the ones I've talked to) emphasize speed-to-market, customizable products, higher-priced products in which labor is a relatively small part of the price, products that require higher technology (often something more precise than can be made abroad) and lots of service -- including, for instance, working with the client to package the product or to design it or to put together some of the parts before shipping a more complete product to the client.

I've also talked with manufacturers who have moved operations to China because they just can't make some things cheap enough in America. Frankly, as long as national security isn't involved and as long as were capable of feeding and clothing ourselves and have other necessities, we don't need to -- or want to -- be competing on the level of cheap labor with the likes of China. We can't win and, really, we don't want to win on that score.

I think if we educate our children, make it easier to start and maintain small businesses, and make it easier for them to grow into bigger businesses, and generally keep ourselves well governed, our economy will grow very well, and the rest will take care of itself. I've seen entrepreneurs do some amazing things in business, and I think we in America are more open to giving them the freedom to do it than just about anywhere else in the world, certainly in any of the bigger nations of the world.

  

_____________________________

I'd rather be in
Chargoggagoggmanchauggagoggchaubunagungamaugg

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Profile   Post #: 88
RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American domin... - 4/14/2006 7:30:24 PM   
DelightMachine


Posts: 652
Joined: 1/21/2006
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Lordandmaster

This thread has to take the all-time CM prize for talking through one's hat.  How many of you have even been to China?  (Laugh...and no, a trip to the Forbidden City and a three-day stay at the Great Wall Sheraton doesn't count.)  It's been a long time since I've read so many certain and sweeping opinions being thrown around without a shred of real information to support them.

Try purchasing real estate in China and see if you still believe it's "absolutely an emerging superpower."


LaM, thank you for your input. You appear to have some knowledge about China and could give us some observations backed up by it. With your expertise, perhaps you could give us some insight into these questions:

1. How real is the danger of widespread unrest in China that might (a) disrupt its economy or (b) overthrow the regime?
2. Decisionmakers at manufacturing companies tell me that they're diversifying out of China or at least putting newer plants in the less-developed interior or northern provinces, partly because of rising labor costs in the southern and more coastal provinces. What do you think about that strategy? Can the officials running interior and northern provinces work with outside companies and allow those provinces to grow?
3. How well have their highways been improving?
4. Do you think that as China lowers trade barriers in food supplies it will be able to handle the unrest from unemployed farmers -- I mean without a major disruption to its economy or an overthrow of the regime?
5. How is China handling its government-subsidized, money-losing companies -- I mean does it remain able to keep them afloat and therefore keep workers in those industries from becoming unemployed? Will the government be shutting down a lot of those industries anytime soon?
6. I've heard that the best way for a U.S. company to arrange manufacturing in China is to allow Chinese companies to produce the items rather than for the U.S. company to try to become a producer in China. What do you think?

Unlike you, I don't claim to have any special expertise in China. I just know what I read in the papers and magazines and what I hear knowledgable people tell me. These questions may sound a little off the topic, but answers to them would help me understand at least a bit better where China is heading. 


_____________________________

I'd rather be in
Chargoggagoggmanchauggagoggchaubunagungamaugg

(in reply to Lordandmaster)
Profile   Post #: 89
RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American domin... - 4/14/2006 8:42:34 PM   
ScooterTrash


Posts: 1407
Joined: 1/24/2005
From: Indiana
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Lordandmaster

This thread has to take the all-time CM prize for talking through one's hat.  How many of you have even been to China?  (Laugh...and no, a trip to the Forbidden City and a three-day stay at the Great Wall Sheraton doesn't count.)  It's been a long time since I've read so many certain and sweeping opinions being thrown around without a shred of real information to support them.

Try purchasing real estate in China and see if you still believe it's "absolutely an emerging superpower."

LAM, we rarely agree wholeheartedly, but at least what I talk about, which would be the manufacturing part of it, I know well. Can't speak for the rest of the group here. I had a chance to go to China and I passed, never did care for food that I didn't recognize what was in it..lol.

_____________________________

Formal symbolic representation of qualitative entities is doomed to its rightful place of minor significance in a world where flowers and beautiful women abound.
-Albert Einstein

(in reply to Lordandmaster)
Profile   Post #: 90
RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American domin... - 4/14/2006 9:13:44 PM   
ScooterTrash


Posts: 1407
Joined: 1/24/2005
From: Indiana
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: DelightMachine


I don't think the exporting of technology to China will cause it to surge past us. I think that's ultimately a minor part of it. I think that if we continue to innovate and increase our entrepreneurial abilities -- inventing both new technology and new ways of doing business -- I think we can compete against China, India or anyone else. Our economy can be incredibly nimble in reacting to challenges and overcoming them.

I've talked to owners and managers of several manufacturers in Connecticut, including some who make the machines that tool & die businesses use. Now this isn't the only answer and it may not be the best solution or the one that would work in most businesses, but what I hear is that with any commodity-type product, especially when there's no need to get it to market extremely fast and where labor costs are going to be a big part of the price, then economics dictate that it be made in China or some other low-cost labor market.

The manufacturing companies that still make things in Connecticut (at least the ones I've talked to) emphasize speed-to-market, customizable products, higher-priced products in which labor is a relatively small part of the price, products that require higher technology (often something more precise than can be made abroad) and lots of service -- including, for instance, working with the client to package the product or to design it or to put together some of the parts before shipping a more complete product to the client.

I've also talked with manufacturers who have moved operations to China because they just can't make some things cheap enough in America. Frankly, as long as national security isn't involved and as long as were capable of feeding and clothing ourselves and have other necessities, we don't need to -- or want to -- be competing on the level of cheap labor with the likes of China. We can't win and, really, we don't want to win on that score.

I think if we educate our children, make it easier to start and maintain small businesses, and make it easier for them to grow into bigger businesses, and generally keep ourselves well governed, our economy will grow very well, and the rest will take care of itself. I've seen entrepreneurs do some amazing things in business, and I think we in America are more open to giving them the freedom to do it than just about anywhere else in the world, certainly in any of the bigger nations of the world.

 
DM, only part of this is directed at you, and not in a bad way.
Agreed...if we continue to maintain growth at a parallel pace, we will stay ahead, but there had to be a ceiling of where it peaks, or at least stalls, that is the scary part. They, China or whoever, could play catchup during these hesitations in development. We have get our head out of our proverbial ass occasionally and realize that just because we can buy something cheaper, if we share technology to do such, it isn't necessarily a good thing. The large corporates don't always use that "looking forward" attitude, while many of the smaller companies who support them do. That is why in many instances the OEMs are not even aware of the savings they could attain by buying from third world countries, because we, as 1st, 2nd and 3rd tier suppliers simply do not offer that as an option to them. Who said the little guy didn't have any control..lol. But yes, some items are bought directly from overseas simply because if you didn't, you couldn't compete. I can right now buy die sections (pieces of dies) cheaper from China than I can buy raw material to make it stateside. I blame Gov't intervention on China's side for that and surely the waters will run dry for that type of assistance. You are dead nuts right on the time element entering into the picture, no matter how economic it is to buy overseas, it really does take substantially more time to tool up and see that first piece. Also correct that "value added" is the biggest lure to low labor countries. I quote parts for our main firm in the states and also for a satellite plant in Mexico and unless the production involves direct labor, something requiring people versus machinery, I can generally still produce the same product cheaper and more efficiently at home. I still have to think that the US & my Euro pick would be Germany, will try like hell to maintain the upper hand, not for world control, but for the sake of maintaining an upper hand financially. As one other poster said, and there is more truth in it than anyone wants to admit..the one with the most money can win. I'm still pretty much of the mindset that China will make a big splash, but in the end will simply be a flash in the pan. As their economy grows, it will follow suit with the other "cheap labor" countries and their wages and corresponding labor rates will increase, making it a more even playing field. So what does this have to do with global Military superiority?...simple, you either have to have the technology to fight at the current level, or you have to have the funds to buy it.  

_____________________________

Formal symbolic representation of qualitative entities is doomed to its rightful place of minor significance in a world where flowers and beautiful women abound.
-Albert Einstein

(in reply to DelightMachine)
Profile   Post #: 91
RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American domin... - 4/14/2006 9:24:47 PM   
caitlyn


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Shocking Ron ...
 
You, trashing other people's opinions, without ever once offering one of your own.
 
That never happens. 

(in reply to mnottertail)
Profile   Post #: 92
RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American domin... - 4/15/2006 1:40:31 AM   
Lordandmaster


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1.  I think (a) is quite likely, though most observers don't agree.  But (b), overthrowing the regime, is nowhere in sight.  The regime is having a more and more difficult time keeping the lids on the various boiling pots, and is soon going to face social problems that I don't believe it has fully thought through.  But there is no organization with any credible power that intends to overthrow the regime.

2.  Of course, as long as these officials aren't so corrupt and disorganized as to defeat the purpose of foreign investment in the first place.

3.  The highways themselves are improving--mainly in the sense that there are highways now where there weren't any before--but the system is completely disorganized.  You can't drive five miles now without encountering a new toll, few of which I believe are monitored in any serious way by the central government.  I really don't see the central government keeping a handle on this.

4.  Frankly, no, I don't think so.  This is going to be a problem.  But there is dissatisfaction among all segments of the population, not just among farmers.

5.  Yes, they're constantly being shut down.  Well, cannibalized first, and then shut down.  Moreover, the state companies that remain are changing their business practices; obviously, they wouldn't be able to compete otherwise.  The days of the iron rice bowl are over, and millions of Chinese people miss them.

6.  Again, many people disagree with me, but I don't see how a U.S. manufacturer is ever going to be as efficient in China as a Chinese company.  Chinese companies can do something American companies can't: hire the local government.

China isn't going to become a "superpower" because China doesn't want to be a "superpower."  China just wants to be a power that no one fucks with.  Being a superpower involves doing crap-work like invading Iraq, installing puppet dictators, and so on.  That's all a waste of time as far as China is concerned.  China just wants to be powerful enough to do whatever it wants without having to yield to anyone else's bullshit objections.  Intertwining their own economy with ours is a great policy to implement that strategy.  We're not going to war with China anytime soon because the cost to our economy would be catastrophic.  (If you have a mortgage on your house, chances are it's owned by China.)

The other reason why China isn't going to be a superpower is that its current rate of growth is unsustainable.  Yeah, I know, this is approximately the point where some know-it-all starts quoting Malthus, but unfortunately this time around it's true.  The environmental stresses are staggering.  The education system, especially in the interior, is a basket-case.  And the laws aren't worth the paper they're printed on.  Building codes?  Ha!  For a time it was possible for the central news agencies to suppress reports of this or that coal-mine disaster, but the population has gotten wise to it.  Every day there is a new accident somewhere.

Look, no one has ever done very well at predicting what's going to happen in China.  It's inherently difficult to predict, and I'm sure I'm going to be wrong about a lot of things too.  I'm just stunned by the various sweeping assertions that people are making on this thread.  They don't seem to be based on very much knowledge.  Armchair wargaming has always been a special source of nausea for me.

quote:

ORIGINAL: DelightMachine

1. How real is the danger of widespread unrest in China that might (a) disrupt its economy or (b) overthrow the regime?
2. Decisionmakers at manufacturing companies tell me that they're diversifying out of China or at least putting newer plants in the less-developed interior or northern provinces, partly because of rising labor costs in the southern and more coastal provinces. What do you think about that strategy? Can the officials running interior and northern provinces work with outside companies and allow those provinces to grow?
3. How well have their highways been improving?
4. Do you think that as China lowers trade barriers in food supplies it will be able to handle the unrest from unemployed farmers -- I mean without a major disruption to its economy or an overthrow of the regime?
5. How is China handling its government-subsidized, money-losing companies -- I mean does it remain able to keep them afloat and therefore keep workers in those industries from becoming unemployed? Will the government be shutting down a lot of those industries anytime soon?
6. I've heard that the best way for a U.S. company to arrange manufacturing in China is to allow Chinese companies to produce the items rather than for the U.S. company to try to become a producer in China. What do you think?

Unlike you, I don't claim to have any special expertise in China. I just know what I read in the papers and magazines and what I hear knowledgable people tell me. These questions may sound a little off the topic, but answers to them would help me understand at least a bit better where China is heading. 


< Message edited by Lordandmaster -- 4/15/2006 1:41:10 AM >

(in reply to DelightMachine)
Profile   Post #: 93
RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American domin... - 4/15/2006 4:24:16 AM   
ScooterTrash


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Good post Lam. As a footnote to #6, not only is it difficult to put an American company on Chinese soil, the culture differences, language barriers, etc. are hinderances not unlike what the Japanese companies faced when they started putting companies in the US...it's an uphill climb at best. Even when doing business with China, the Chinese Gov't maintains a hold on the exchange, as to do so it is currently required that you go through a broker, not work directly with the company. You can't just call up Company "A" and say you want to buy such and such..there are hoops to be jumped through, at least that has been our experience.

_____________________________

Formal symbolic representation of qualitative entities is doomed to its rightful place of minor significance in a world where flowers and beautiful women abound.
-Albert Einstein

(in reply to Lordandmaster)
Profile   Post #: 94
RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American domin... - 4/15/2006 5:07:58 AM   
Moloch


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Blabedy blah  ogga booga titties and fire arms!!! 
Here are my 2 cents.  
What happened with sharing opinions instead of pointing fingers and arguing who is right?

(in reply to AntiBushProAm)
Profile   Post #: 95
RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American domin... - 4/15/2006 5:12:57 AM   
ScooterTrash


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No kidding, I finally found a use for the block button.

_____________________________

Formal symbolic representation of qualitative entities is doomed to its rightful place of minor significance in a world where flowers and beautiful women abound.
-Albert Einstein

(in reply to Moloch)
Profile   Post #: 96
RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American domin... - 4/15/2006 5:31:59 AM   
david3000


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How odd that wherever I go for intellectual discourse they're always talking about sex and where I go for sex they're having an intellectual discourse.  One of the world's little ironies.

Anyhow...people say American dominance like its a good thing.  Now, I'm not saying Russia and China are great or anything.  Actually, they're awful.  But saintly we are not.  And I happen to think that it might be better for the world as a whole if all countries talked as equals rather than down to one another, insofar as that's possible.  So, maybe in the future the U.S. isn't as dominant as it used to be and the EU takes up some of the slack.  So what?  Not the end of the world.  Besides, there's an ebb and flow to world power and nothing lasts forever.

(in reply to ScooterTrash)
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RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American domin... - 4/16/2006 2:27:13 AM   
UtopianRanger


Posts: 3251
Status: offline
quote:

There is alotta asswipe touted so far


Bet! But even you have to admitt that the ''Kissinger'' quote was an all time classic. LMAO!!


 - R

< Message edited by UtopianRanger -- 4/16/2006 2:28:10 AM >


_____________________________

"If you are going to win any battle, you have to do one thing. You have to make the mind run the body. Never let the body tell the mind what to do... the body is never tired if the mind is not tired."

-General George S. Patton


(in reply to mnottertail)
Profile   Post #: 98
RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American domin... - 4/16/2006 5:50:33 AM   
Chaingang


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Joined: 10/24/2005
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LardandMaster:

Good God, aren't you through preening yet? How is it exactly you are the expert when even you qualify your statements with how predictions are hard to make and that you are sure to be wrong in many areas yourself?

Fuck, get over it. It' possible to disagree with you and for no other reason than your own admissions.

I think you are dead wrong, and I think it's prudent to base my political views on my own views even if I turn out to be wrong. Better safe than sorry.

_____________________________

"Everything flows, nothing stands still." (Πάντα ῥεῖ καὶ οὐδὲν μένει) - Heraclitus

(in reply to Lordandmaster)
Profile   Post #: 99
RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American domin... - 4/16/2006 7:31:44 AM   
Level


Posts: 25145
Joined: 3/3/2006
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quote:

ORIGINAL: CopulatorGeneral

I blame our problems on those hook nosed jews myself. Since they migrated to America they have turned it into a Jewish Corporate Empire that helped establish Isreal and create much trouble in the world. They can never have enough and want everything and then some more.


Oh good, the fake fuckwad appears to be back.

(in reply to CopulatorGeneral)
Profile   Post #: 100
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