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RE: TIME magazine: Dems Start to Panic as Reality of Mi... - 7/19/2010 10:41:10 AM   
Jeffff


Posts: 12600
Joined: 7/7/2007
Status: offline 		Who can blame them after they have been so falsely run htrough the wringer on this thing.

Why doesn't Obama just stand up and take the blame like a man.

I can't wait for the midterms.

< Message edited by Jeffff -- 7/19/2010 10:42:21 AM >

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RE: TIME magazine: Dems Start to Panic as Reality of Mi... - 7/19/2010 10:43:21 AM   
Sanity


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Look at what they're going to drag out in the run-up to the election - another spending spree followed by cap and tax.

Whose side are these guys on, anyway...

http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/109451-spending-showdown-looms-as-reid-clears-deck-for-energy-reform

quote:

ORIGINAL: willbeurdaddy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Sanity


It would probably help the Dems if the president were popular. Or if the speaker were popular. Or if the majority leader were popular...




Or any of their policies were popular.


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RE: TIME magazine: Dems Start to Panic as Reality of Mi... - 7/19/2010 10:49:21 AM   
mnottertail


Posts: 60698
Joined: 11/3/2004
Status: offline 		<snip from the article>
Defense Secretary Robert Gates warned Senate Republicans on Tuesday that if Congress didn’t approve the funds by month’s end, he could not pay the troops, according to Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.).
<snip from the article>

Republicans are trying to kill our troops and ruin our country.

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Profile   Post #: 23
RE: TIME magazine: Dems Start to Panic as Reality of Mi... - 7/19/2010 11:06:47 AM   
Sanity


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From: Nampa, Idaho USA
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The Dems are trying to use the troops' paychecks as a form of blackmail against the Republicans?

Whatever happened to change we could believe in.

quote:

ORIGINAL: mnottertail

<snip from the article>
Defense Secretary Robert Gates warned Senate Republicans on Tuesday that if Congress didn’t approve the funds by month’s end, he could not pay the troops, according to Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.).
<snip from the article>

Republicans are trying to kill our troops and ruin our country.


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Inside Every Liberal Is A Totalitarian Screaming To Get Out

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Profile   Post #: 24
RE: TIME magazine: Dems Start to Panic as Reality of Mi... - 7/19/2010 11:08:26 AM   
mnottertail


Posts: 60698
Joined: 11/3/2004
Status: offline 		The article further went on to say that Obama will likely veto it.  Theres some change for ya.  

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Profile   Post #: 25
RE: TIME magazine: Dems Start to Panic as Reality of Mi... - 7/19/2010 11:38:40 AM   
ThatDamnedPanda


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quote:

Under pressure, the Democrats are cracking. On both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue, there is a realization that Nancy Pelosi's hold on the speakership is in true jeopardy; that losing control of the Senate is not out of the question; and that time, once the Democrats' best friend, is now their mortal enemy. Since January, when Scott Brown won Ted Kennedy's Massachusetts Senate seat, the President's party has tried to downplay in public what its pollsters have been saying in private: that Obama's alienation of independents and white voters, along with the enthusiasm gap between the right and the left, means that Republicans are on a trajectory to pick up massive numbers of House and Senate seats, perhaps even to regain control of Congress.


Evidence of the pervasiveness of this view: Sunday's New York Times op-ed page, which featured a series of short essays from leading Democratic and Republican strategists about how Obama could go about staging a political comeback, focused not on November's midterms but on 2012 — an indication that Washington conventional wisdom has already written off prospects of Democrats sustaining a majority in the legislature.


I don't think Obama really cares very much one way or the other, to be honest. 2010 may matter a great deal to incumbent Democratic legislators, but it means little to Obama.

Just about everything he wanted to get done in his first  term is already done. Most of it done very poorly, to be sure, but done nevertheless. He spent enormous amounts of political capital ramming it through while he had the majority in both houses - pretty much all of his political capital, as a matter of fact - and that was all he was hoping to get out of his first 2 years. The next 2 years will be about consolidating the gains, fine-tuning the programs, and getting ready to run in 2012 - which will be much easier if the House is Republican, because he'll have someone to run against. John Boehner will be his New Gingrich.


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RE: TIME magazine: Dems Start to Panic as Reality of Mi... - 7/19/2010 11:47:29 AM   
willbeurdaddy


Posts: 11894
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quote:

ORIGINAL: ThatDamnedPanda

quote:

Under pressure, the Democrats are cracking. On both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue, there is a realization that Nancy Pelosi's hold on the speakership is in true jeopardy; that losing control of the Senate is not out of the question; and that time, once the Democrats' best friend, is now their mortal enemy. Since January, when Scott Brown won Ted Kennedy's Massachusetts Senate seat, the President's party has tried to downplay in public what its pollsters have been saying in private: that Obama's alienation of independents and white voters, along with the enthusiasm gap between the right and the left, means that Republicans are on a trajectory to pick up massive numbers of House and Senate seats, perhaps even to regain control of Congress.


Evidence of the pervasiveness of this view: Sunday's New York Times op-ed page, which featured a series of short essays from leading Democratic and Republican strategists about how Obama could go about staging a political comeback, focused not on November's midterms but on 2012 — an indication that Washington conventional wisdom has already written off prospects of Democrats sustaining a majority in the legislature.


I don't think Obama really cares very much one way or the other, to be honest. 2010 may matter a great deal to incumbent Democratic legislators, but it means little to Obama.

Just about everything he wanted to get done in his first  term is already done. Most of it done very poorly, to be sure, but done nevertheless. He spent enormous amounts of political capital ramming it through while he had the majority in both houses - pretty much all of his political capital, as a matter of fact - and that was all he was hoping to get out of his first 2 years. The next 2 years will be about consolidating the gains, fine-tuning the programs, and getting ready to run in 2012 - which will be much easier if the House is Republican, because he'll have someone to run against. John Boehner will be his New Gingrich.



If there is a Dem bloodletting in November, the lame duck session could be very dicey. You could find several of the RINOs that are not up for re-election in 2010 joining forces with the Dems, sensing that they are out in 2012 anyway.

(in reply to ThatDamnedPanda)
Profile   Post #: 27
RE: TIME magazine: Dems Start to Panic as Reality of Mi... - 7/19/2010 12:00:18 PM   
ThatDamnedPanda


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quote:

ORIGINAL: willbeurdaddy


If there is a Dem bloodletting in November, the lame duck session could be very dicey. You could find several of the RINOs that are not up for re-election in 2010 joining forces with the Dems, sensing that they are out in 2012 anyway.


That is definitely possible. Trouble is, conventional wisdoms are very difficult to apply with any degree of reliability at this particular period in political history. In many ways, it's a whole new ball game. So many variables that have never been present before, and it's very difficult to assign them the proper weighting in any comprehensive evaluation. Too much of this will be directly affected by events that are beyond our control and prediction - how will the economy be doing in 2011? Gas prices? What will be happening in North Korea? Iran? Iraq? Afghanistan? Pakistan? Or any one of a dozen other 'Stans we've never heard of, but may blow up sometime in the next year?

Best guess, though, is that the conventional wisdom about a sitting president benefiting from having a strong opposition to run against is still valid. Obama will probably be stronger in 2012 with a Republican House, especially one led by John Boehner. You could argue that a Republican Senate would also be a benefit, but I'm not sure that benefit would be worth the gridlock and the legislative paralysis that would result from a completely Republican legislature.

At any rate, the point is, whether you and I are right or wrong in our analyses, that's the way Obama is calculating it. I think the chances are that he's probably right, but I can't back that up with anything but an opinion and a gut feeling.


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Profile   Post #: 28
RE: TIME magazine: Dems Start to Panic as Reality of Mi... - 7/19/2010 12:10:21 PM   
willbeurdaddy


Posts: 11894
Joined: 4/8/2006
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quote:

ORIGINAL: ThatDamnedPanda

quote:

ORIGINAL: willbeurdaddy


If there is a Dem bloodletting in November, the lame duck session could be very dicey. You could find several of the RINOs that are not up for re-election in 2010 joining forces with the Dems, sensing that they are out in 2012 anyway.


That is definitely possible. Trouble is, conventional wisdoms are very difficult to apply with any degree of reliability at this particular period in political history. In many ways, it's a whole new ball game. So many variables that have never been present before, and it's very difficult to assign them the proper weighting in any comprehensive evaluation. Too much of this will be directly affected by events that are beyond our control and prediction - how will the economy be doing in 2011? Gas prices? What will be happening in North Korea? Iran? Iraq? Afghanistan? Pakistan? Or any one of a dozen other 'Stans we've never heard of, but may blow up sometime in the next year?

Best guess, though, is that the conventional wisdom about a sitting president benefiting from having a strong opposition to run against is still valid. Obama will probably be stronger in 2012 with a Republican House, especially one led by John Boehner. You could argue that a Republican Senate would also be a benefit, but I'm not sure that benefit would be worth the gridlock and the legislative paralysis that would result from a completely Republican legislature.

At any rate, the point is, whether you and I are right or wrong in our analyses, that's the way Obama is calculating it. I think the chances are that he's probably right, but I can't back that up with anything but an opinion and a gut feeling.



The economy in 2011 will override any other issue with the exception of bad news on the terrorism side. On the economy side, you are correct, Republican control would be Obamas best chance. There is already talk amongst both Dems and Reps of extending the Bush tax cuts for those making $250k and below. That would be a real short term stimulus that could improve the economy for 2011, with all of the pent up demand for corporate cash to be utilized, and obviously would have a better chance of passage without the Dems controlling both houses. It would also give some credibility to Obama's claims of "no middle class tax increases".

The reality is, though, that it would merely be a personal life saver for Obama, but not his policies, which would have to move much more to the middle to have anything at all accomplished in at least the first 2 years of his second admin.

Also extending those Bush tax cuts will not be enough stimulus for the economy if a lame duck session passes cap and trade, and even without cap and trade it might not be enough without some clarity in health reform regulations. There would still be far too much uncertainty for businesses to invest.

In short: Republican control could be a win for both Obama and for conservatives, but a loss for the far left elements that currently control the Dem agenda.

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RE: TIME magazine: Dems Start to Panic as Reality of Mi... - 7/20/2010 7:14:30 AM   
truckinslave


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quote:

You could find several of the RINOs that are not up for re-election in 2010 joining forces with the Dems, sensing that they are out in 2012 anyway.


While I agree RINOs are an endangered species, I think they will try to come to Jesus. Hayworth certainly helped McCain get a case of that old-time conservatism.
Oughta last thru Nov 2012, anyway.

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RE: TIME magazine: Dems Start to Panic as Reality of Mi... - 7/20/2010 7:17:25 AM   
truckinslave


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quote:

The next 2 years will be about consolidating the gains, fine-tuning the programs, and getting ready to run in 2012 - which will be much easier if the House is Republican, because he'll have someone to run against. John Boehner will be his New Gingrich.


I think the part about 0bama0 needing someone/something to run against is insightful, the idea that he will consolidate gains is fanciful. He'll be very lucky to keep the new House from defunding 0bamaocare.

Which, again, would give him something to run (uphill) against.

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RE: TIME magazine: Dems Start to Panic as Reality of Mi... - 7/20/2010 12:54:31 PM   
Fellow


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Status: offline 		http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-15/throw-the-bums-out-as-long-as-my-bum-stays-put-caroline-baum.html
Bllomberg columnist Caroline Baum argues that we will see similar picture to previous elections: the incumbency rate has averaged 93.3 percent since 1964, it dipped below 90 percent (down to 85% max) only five times in the last 23 elections.

quote:

Throw the Bums Out as Long as My Bum Stays Put: Caroline Baum "Neither war (two of them) nor revolution nor a new high in anti-incumbent sentiment can separate a member from his seat."


I suspect something like this. We will see.




(in reply to truckinslave)
Profile   Post #: 32
RE: TIME magazine: Dems Start to Panic as Reality of Mi... - 7/20/2010 5:04:52 PM   
popeye1250


Posts: 18104
Joined: 1/27/2006
From: New Hampshire
Status: offline 		The People are *angry*. When The People are angry they take it out on all the incumbants, "who caused this mess!"
And a lot of people who wouldn't ordinarily vote in a mid-term election do vote when they're pissed-off. And that's *never* good for incumbants.
So, if voting is heavier than normal it'll be , "everybody inside, outside!"
And that goes for John McCain as well, too many people in Az. are pissed at him for his turncoat stance on "amnesty" and a lot of other things.
As they say, he's part of the problem not part of the solution.
As for Obama he's just not a popular president. He's not even "likable." I don't think he's even capable of "uniting" the country, we've been divided since he took office and the talk of Hillary Clinton running against him in 2012 is just more proof of that.
He's finished in 2012.
The Democrats fucked up.


< Message edited by popeye1250 -- 7/20/2010 5:08:56 PM >

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RE: TIME magazine: Dems Start to Panic as Reality of Mi... - 7/21/2010 4:23:12 PM   
truckinslave


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Fellow

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-15/throw-the-bums-out-as-long-as-my-bum-stays-put-caroline-baum.html
Bllomberg columnist Caroline Baum argues that we will see similar picture to previous elections: the incumbency rate has averaged 93.3 percent since 1964, it dipped below 90 percent (down to 85% max) only five times in the last 23 elections.

quote:

Throw the Bums Out as Long as My Bum Stays Put: Caroline Baum "Neither war (two of them) nor revolution nor a new high in anti-incumbent sentiment can separate a member from his seat."


I suspect something like this. We will see.




If you know and like Ms Baum, perhaps she would embarass herself less if you showed her this.



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RE: TIME magazine: Dems Start to Panic as Reality of Mi... - 7/21/2010 4:34:53 PM   
thompsonx


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quote:

As for Obama he's just not a popular president. He's not even "likable."


So you thought gw was popular and likable?

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Profile   Post #: 35
RE: TIME magazine: Dems Start to Panic as Reality of Mi... - 7/21/2010 4:44:56 PM   
rulemylife


Posts: 14614
Joined: 8/23/2004
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Sanity


The Dems are trying to use the troops' paychecks as a form of blackmail against the Republicans?

Whatever happened to change we could believe in.

quote:

ORIGINAL: mnottertail

<snip from the article>
Defense Secretary Robert Gates warned Senate Republicans on Tuesday that if Congress didn’t approve the funds by month’s end, he could not pay the troops, according to Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.).
<snip from the article>

Republicans are trying to kill our troops and ruin our country.



If the situation were reversed, as it has been fairly recently, you would be whining that Democrats were not patriotic and were sabotaging the war effort.

Wait................as I recall, you did just that.

(in reply to Sanity)
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RE: TIME magazine: Dems Start to Panic as Reality of Mi... - 7/21/2010 4:47:40 PM   
EbonyWood


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quote:

ORIGINAL: popeye1250

As for Obama he's just not a popular president. He's not even "likable." I don't think he's even capable of "uniting" the country, we've been divided since he took office


Yeah, really missing the lovefest the country had under Bush. Really united back then we were..
 
Are all your thoughts 8 years old? Take your pills.

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Profile   Post #: 37
RE: TIME magazine: Dems Start to Panic as Reality of Mi... - 7/21/2010 5:04:12 PM   
rulemylife


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quote:

ORIGINAL: truckinslave

quote:

You could find several of the RINOs that are not up for re-election in 2010 joining forces with the Dems, sensing that they are out in 2012 anyway.


While I agree RINOs are an endangered species, I think they will try to come to Jesus. Hayworth certainly helped McCain get a case of that old-time conservatism.
Oughta last thru Nov 2012, anyway.


That's exactly the reason McCain lost.

He let himself be taken in by that "old-time conservatism".

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Profile   Post #: 38
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