The Next World War - Israel Attacks Iran (Full Version)

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vincentML -> The Next World War - Israel Attacks Iran (8/19/2010 7:11:11 PM)

"Al Qaeda has consistently said a struggle between Israel and Iran can only be good for the global Islamic jihad by blooding two of its enemies and forcing America to side with Israel."

Al Qaeda’s franchise in Yemen, the self-styled al Qaeda in the Arabian Pennisula (AQAP), issued an audio message this month .... “what is expected is for the war to begin by the Jews against Iran.” Israel will stage air strikes on Iran’s nuclear installations to start. Shehri expects the Iranian Shia regime to try to take advantage of an Israeli attack on its nuclear facilities to seize the holy cities of Mecca and Medina by blaming Saudi Arabia for helping Israel attack. In turn, the Israelis will seize territory in the Levant to establish “the greater state of Israel.” The Sunni Arab population of the Middle East will be caught between the “Jews in the Middle East and Iran in the Peninsula.”

"Iran will attack American installations in the Gulf, encourage its proxies in Iraq and Afghanistan to attack Americans, and engage in a global terror campaign."

http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2010-08-18/al-qaeda-plans-for-war-with-israel/?cid=hp:mainpromo8



What do you think? What are the odds this will come about?
What can be done to prevent it? What action(s) should be taken by the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Western Europe? Before and after (presuming)

What economic and strategic interest would Russia. China, and India have? Would North Korea use this as an excuse to attack the South?

What would the impact be on the world economy? OY! The price of OIL.

Are we pointing our guns in the wrong direction in Afghanastan?

Is this just one gigantic, unlikely fantasy? Or is this most likely the next big reality we do not see coming? What is your guess?

Sorry for all the questions. It all seems so complicated. Think Europe 1914. I guess the main question is could this escalate into World War?



TtotheC -> RE: The Next World War - Israel Attacks Iran (8/19/2010 7:23:10 PM)

quote:


Al Qaeda’s franchise in Yemen


Oh how I wish they'd stop using 'franchise'.  It makes it sound like a bloody outlet of Starbucks or Subways.  You know corporatism has gone too far when they start applying it to terrorist movements. 



Rule -> RE: The Next World War - Israel Attacks Iran (8/19/2010 7:42:38 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: vincentML
What do you think? What are the odds this will come about?
What is your guess?
I guess the main question is could this escalate into World War?

I think that Iran is too huge to be attacked and the USA too weak economically.
My guess is Somalia.
No world war. The last one was more than sixty years ago. So there is reason to assume that the world war method has been abandoned.



kdsub -> RE: The Next World War - Israel Attacks Iran (8/19/2010 8:37:58 PM)

The western nations should display a true united front and lobby China and Russia to join. Then outside the useless United Nations present Iran with an ultimatum to allow inspection and regulation of their nuclear facilities. If they don't comply then military action will be taken...leaving Israel out of it.

It is what we should have done with Korea.

It is a shame that the UN is totally useless and the US and its allies will be forced to act in this manner. No one wants to do it but if nuclear proliferation is allowed to continue there will be a nuclear war in the future.

Then I am all for a world wide total nuclear disarmament.

I know none of the above will happen but it should..it is the only way

Butch



vincentML -> RE: The Next World War - Israel Attacks Iran (8/20/2010 4:40:22 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: TtotheC

quote:


Al Qaeda’s franchise in Yemen


Oh how I wish they'd stop using 'franchise'.  It makes it sound like a bloody outlet of Starbucks or Subways.  You know corporatism has gone too far when they start applying it to terrorist movements. 



Surprised you are concerned about word usage in the face of possible massive destruction but i accept your view... it is a corporatism gone wild [:)]



vincentML -> RE: The Next World War - Israel Attacks Iran (8/20/2010 4:59:45 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Rule

quote:

ORIGINAL: vincentML
What do you think? What are the odds this will come about?
What is your guess?
I guess the main question is could this escalate into World War?

I think that Iran is too huge to be attacked and the USA too weak economically.
My guess is Somalia.
No world war. The last one was more than sixty years ago. So there is reason to assume that the world war method has been abandoned.


Hi Rule. There were 44 years between the Franco-Prussian War and the Great War. Those were years of great progress: telephone, refrigerator, flight, automobiles, international trade. The world was at peace and prosperity was just around the corner although the US was emerging from two nasty recessions and that little dust-up in Cuba and the Philippines, and the UK was putzing about in South Africa. No one dreamed there would be another War in that age of new technology and new markets. Then it all came tumbling down. Why not now?

And why Somalia? What is the strategic interest in Somalia and what is the threat?

Do you know the history of the breakup between Shia and Sunni after the death (murder?) of the Prophet. I don't but I understand the Shia are still seeking revenge, Persia has dreams of ancient empire and dignity, and Israel has existential angst. Are the Shia hellbent on taking Mecca and Medina from SA? And isn't the economic weakness in the West an invitation for Iran to flex its muscle?

Oh btw, both Rusia and China face radical jihad.

Rather seems like the "gathering storm" is in the Middle East not the Horn of Africa. What do you think?



vincentML -> RE: The Next World War - Israel Attacks Iran (8/20/2010 5:02:15 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: kdsub

The western nations should display a true united front and lobby China and Russia to join. Then outside the useless United Nations present Iran with an ultimatum to allow inspection and regulation of their nuclear facilities. If they don't comply then military action will be taken...leaving Israel out of it.

It is what we should have done with Korea.

It is a shame that the UN is totally useless and the US and its allies will be forced to act in this manner. No one wants to do it but if nuclear proliferation is allowed to continue there will be a nuclear war in the future.

Then I am all for a world wide total nuclear disarmament.

I know none of the above will happen but it should..it is the only way

Butch



Hey Butch, don't you think Russia and China would be happy to see the West entangled in this mess? Would it not serve there interests?



praetorian1974 -> RE: The Next World War - Israel Attacks Iran (8/20/2010 5:18:01 AM)

Vincent, I think the point is to keep the enemy on the move, and not to allow them that all important "safe haven". North Africa is rife with terrorism, as fundemental Islam is a rapidly rising demographic over there. The real problem though, is that trying to control a terrorist network is like trying to grab a hold of a fist full of water, you only ever get a few drops in your hand at a time.



praetorian1974 -> RE: The Next World War - Israel Attacks Iran (8/20/2010 5:32:49 AM)

Also, if the US and its allies go to war with Iran, than China and Russia will lose a huge portion of trade due to the resulting sanctions and blockades. Neither country can afford the loss in oil or natural gas from such a large supplier, especially China, which explains their reluctance to sign off on any UN resolutions.
It is interesting, though, that Russia has been building up its base in Syria quietly over the last few years. I don’t understand why they aren’t offering to deal with Hezbollah there, as I would think the latter would present a problem to “occupiers” of any kind.



caitlyn -> RE: The Next World War - Israel Attacks Iran (8/20/2010 5:48:15 AM)

The most important thing to remember is that there are two types of wars: limited actions with limited objectives ... and being "All In."

An attack against Saudi Arabia would quickly push thing to the "All In" level, and in that scenario, American air power would make the mother of all messes out of any potential invader.

The poster above is quite correct. The real threat is the rise of terrorist networks throughout the region and in surrounding areas. Those are the types of problems that can't be solved by things like B2 bombers. 



Rule -> RE: The Next World War - Israel Attacks Iran (8/20/2010 6:07:13 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: vincentML
No one dreamed there would be another War in that age of new technology and new markets. Then it all came tumbling down. Why not now?

Oh, plenty of people were plotting the Great War at that time. They were just waiting until they could afford it. I do not think that the USA can afford another war at the moment. But give them a dozen years and they might attack Iran. Meanwhile Iran might be softened up by the USSR.

quote:

ORIGINAL: vincentML
And why Somalia? What is the strategic interest in Somalia and what is the threat?

There is little of value in Somalia, it seems, but it is a hard-core Islamic country and it has a strategic location both on the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean and may be a way station for Muslim combatants passing through. Take out Somalia and the Islamic Arabic peninsula, Islamic Africa and Islamic Indonesia will be largely isolated from each other geographically.

quote:

ORIGINAL: vincentML
Do you know the history of the breakup between Shia and Sunni after the death (murder?) of the Prophet.

I read about it once, but I have forgotten.

quote:

ORIGINAL: vincentML
Persia has dreams of ancient empire and dignity

I doubt it. They have had a huge population explosion, that is for sure. But who might they attack? Pakistan? Syria? The USSR? Most certainly not Saudi Arabia as that is across the water, nor Iraq.
Iran has a big mouth, but that is all.

quote:

ORIGINAL: vincentML
isn't the economic weakness in the West an invitation for Iran to flex its muscle?

No. They try to strengthen themselves for the attack they know is coming.

quote:

ORIGINAL: vincentML
Oh btw, both Rusia and China face radical jihad.

Well, that may be a reason for Russia to attack Iran.

quote:

ORIGINAL: vincentML
Rather seems like the "gathering storm" is in the Middle East not the Horn of Africa. What do you think?

Since it has been known that Israel has nuclear weapons, I doubt that it will be attacked.



Jeffff -> RE: The Next World War - Israel Attacks Iran (8/20/2010 6:20:38 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: vincentML

Al Qaeda’s franchise in Yemen,



Can I get one of those? Are the franchise fee's outrageous?

Where can I see a menu?



vincentML -> RE: The Next World War - Israel Attacks Iran (8/20/2010 9:08:27 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Jeffff


quote:

ORIGINAL: vincentML

Al Qaeda’s franchise in Yemen,



Can I get one of those? Are the franchise fee's outrageous?

Where can I see a menu?


Jeffff, only 5 bucks for a foot long. How long is your erm..... foot? [:)]



vincentML -> RE: The Next World War - Israel Attacks Iran (8/20/2010 9:17:55 AM)

quote:

Oh, plenty of people were plotting the Great War at that time. They were just waiting until they could afford it. I do not think that the USA can afford another war at the moment. But give them a dozen years and they might attack Iran. Meanwhile Iran might be softened up by the USSR.

But 1914 was a time of Empires. We are now in a time of Islamic Zealots and Israeli Survival. Might that not make a difference?

quote:

I doubt it. They have had a huge population explosion, that is for sure. But who might they attack? Pakistan? Syria? The USSR? Most certainly not Saudi Arabia as that is across the water, nor Iraq. Iran has a big mouth, but that is all.


With political disarray in Iraq could not Iran slice right through southern Iraq to reach Mecca and Medina while Hezbollah once again attacked Israel from the north?

quote:

Since it has been known that Israel has nuclear weapons, I doubt that it will be attacked.


This was predicated upon a first strike by Israeli Air Force.



vincentML -> RE: The Next World War - Israel Attacks Iran (8/20/2010 9:23:04 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: praetorian1974

Also, if the US and its allies go to war with Iran, than China and Russia will lose a huge portion of trade due to the resulting sanctions and blockades. Neither country can afford the loss in oil or natural gas from such a large supplier, especially China, which explains their reluctance to sign off on any UN resolutions.
It is interesting, though, that Russia has been building up its base in Syria quietly over the last few years. I don’t understand why they aren’t offering to deal with Hezbollah there, as I would think the latter would present a problem to “occupiers” of any kind.



Isn't Russia a net exporter of natural gas? Wouldn't the first to suffer be Europe? And hasn't China been making deals for other supplies around the world? Might China not anticipate emerging stronger if the US and allies continue to be bogged down in a land war in the Middle East and South Asia?



vincentML -> RE: The Next World War - Israel Attacks Iran (8/20/2010 9:28:21 AM)


quote:

caitlyn

The most important thing to remember is that there are two types of wars: limited actions with limited objectives ... and being "All In."

An attack against Saudi Arabia would quickly push thing to the "All In" level, and in that scenario, American air power would make the mother of all messes out of any potential invader.


Wonder if Mullah fanaticism doesn't trump concern for US air response. Again this is predicated on an Isreali first strike. Where would the world's sympathy be?

quote:

The poster above is quite correct. The real threat is the rise of terrorist networks throughout the region and in surrounding areas. Those are the types of problems that can't be solved by things like B2 bombers. 


Agreed, this is part of the equation.



pogo4pres -> RE: The Next World War - Israel Attacks Iran (8/20/2010 9:36:48 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: caitlyn

The most important thing to remember is that there are two types of wars: limited actions with limited objectives ... and being "All In."

An attack against Saudi Arabia would quickly push thing to the "All In" level, and in that scenario, American air power would make the mother of all messes out of any potential invader.

The poster above is quite correct. The real threat is the rise of terrorist networks throughout the region and in surrounding areas. Those are the types of problems that can't be solved by things like B2 bombers. 
]

Caitlyn good point, people need to remember it is far far easier to bomb the shit out of a place than to win the "hearts and minds" of the populace.  We tried the "hearts and minds" gig for a bit in Vietnam, but proved inept at best, so we fell back on bomb the shit out of them.  We see how well that worked.  We as a nation have demonstrated time and again the inability to bother to learn local customs, and rituals, which is how you begin to win those "hearts and minds".

Utterly convinced of our innate superiority, our command structure is always about shock and awe first, and "hearts and minds" well down the list of options.  Just fucking once I would like to see a US commander that understands that "hearts and minds" should be first.

Oh wait who the fuck am I kidding the US command structure is set up so you pretty much have to think shock and awe first in order to get into command in the first place. 

Militarily,
Some Knucklehead in NJ



Archer -> RE: The Next World War - Israel Attacks Iran (8/20/2010 10:11:41 AM)

pogo, sorry I must have missed the Clausewitz or any other papers of military thought that made Military Commanders responsible for the diplomacy of politicians before they got there failing.
They call in the military when starting with "hearts and minds" has already FAILED. When the State Department flunkies finally say OK we've tried everything and screwed it all up, and we can't get what we need as a solution this way, that's when they call in the military. They never call in the military before the shit gets all fucked up politically.







pogo4pres -> RE: The Next World War - Israel Attacks Iran (8/20/2010 10:26:40 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Archer

pogo, sorry I must have missed the Clausewitz or any other papers of military thought that made Military Commanders responsible for the diplomacy of politicians before they got there failing.
They call in the military when starting with "hearts and minds" has already FAILED. When the State Department flunkies finally say OK we've tried everything and screwed it all up, and we can't get what we need as a solution this way, that's when they call in the military. They never call in the military before the shit gets all fucked up politically.








Ok archer I'll bite the DOE & DOS on your  DD-214 are what?? Tell you what archer I'll even go first 4 May 1977, and 11 Apr 1983.   The problem we currently face began in the mid to late 1980's when the late  Charlie Wilson got us funding the mujaheddin in Afghanistan, and when the Soviets finally were defeated we neglected to fund shit like schools, hospitals other infrastructure, (the hearts and minds stuff)  and instead abandoned  the nation.  Which lead Charlie to deliver the following quote:

"We did these things, and it was glorious...We Changed the world.....BUT WE FUCKED UP THE END GAME"

See how that works archer if we'd have spent a few hundred million in the late 80's on HEARTS AND MINDS, we would not be spending a fucking trillion on the current shock and awe... but why the fuck should I expect any different thinking from a civilian.



Militarily,
Some Knucklehead in NJ



thornhappy -> RE: The Next World War - Israel Attacks Iran (8/20/2010 10:52:43 AM)

Yeah, like civilians can't express constructive viewpoints about the military...you know...guys like Robert Gates.



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