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RE: Home sales plummet - 8/26/2010 7:37:38 PM

willbeurdaddy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Marini

I certainly agree with you on the NCLB.
You didn't come out and admit, GWB played a large part in this housing/financial free fall we are now in.

Thats because he had virtually nothing to do with the housing problems and did his best to fight it off. His greatest failure financially was to not take a stand and veto EESA. It would have been a token gesture and easily overridden because of the phony doomsday predictions that had both sides of the aisle shitting in their pants about their careers if things did actually tank despite the ineffectiveness of EESA. At least it would have demonstrated that not everyone was buying the BS the banks were peddling.

so dont overread what I said about him not being blameless. Todays problems are firmly in the Dems side of the ledger, dating back to the repeal of Glass Steagall.

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Post #: 41

RE: Home sales plummet - 8/26/2010 7:43:13 PM

Marini

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quote:

ORIGINAL: servantforuse

If you believe that GWB is responsible for the housing collapse, just what did he do to cause it. ? The dems controlled congress.

I did not say he caused it, as President Obama did not "cause it" either, I said he was President for 8 years, and the housing situation began free-falling in the middle of his Presidency.

< Message edited by Marini -- 8/26/2010 7:44:14 PM >

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Post #: 42

RE: Home sales plummet - 8/26/2010 7:46:56 PM

servantforuse

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This housing freefall didn't start untill the end of Bush's term, not 6 years ago in the middle of it.

(in reply to Marini)

Post #: 43

RE: Home sales plummet - 8/26/2010 7:49:43 PM

Marini

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quote:

ORIGINAL: servantforuse

This housing freefall didn't start untill the end of Bush's term, not 6 years ago in the middle of it.

Almost every source I looked at on the net, stated we were in trouble in 2005-2006.
This did not start in 2008, sorry.

_____________________________

As always, To EACH their Own.
"And as we let our own light shine, we unconsciously give other people permission to do the same. "
Nelson Mandela
Life-long Democrat, not happy at all with Democratic Party.
NOT a Republican/Moderate and free agent

(in reply to servantforuse)

Post #: 44

RE: Home sales plummet - 8/26/2010 7:51:59 PM

Hillwilliam

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It was well underway in '08

Real Estate Broker here

(in reply to Marini)

Post #: 45

RE: Home sales plummet - 8/26/2010 7:53:44 PM

Marini

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Joined: 2/14/2010
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Hillwilliam

It was well underway in '08

Real Estate Broker here

Would you agree with the visual chart I posted? I thought it was informative and fairly easy to follow.

http://www.mint.com/blog/finance-core/a-visual-guide-to-the-financial-crisis/

< Message edited by Marini -- 8/26/2010 7:55:48 PM >

_____________________________

As always, To EACH their Own.
"And as we let our own light shine, we unconsciously give other people permission to do the same. "
Nelson Mandela
Life-long Democrat, not happy at all with Democratic Party.
NOT a Republican/Moderate and free agent

(in reply to Hillwilliam)

Post #: 46

RE: Home sales plummet - 8/26/2010 8:02:23 PM

Hillwilliam

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It happened in a lot of areas. Fortunately in this part of the country, REO activity is minimal. It seems that folks around here may not be the best educated in the world but they know that if their household income is 45,000/year that they cant afford a house that costs a quarter Mil.

Presently, in our area, there is about one active foreclosure for every 3900 residents. According to the report that came out yesterday, we did have depreciation around here but it was at an annualized rate of -0.3% and most of that can be attributed to recreational and mountainous properties that people from FL and NY thought they were getting at a "steal" from those poor uneducated hillbillies. Now, we're buying them back for half what we sold em to the halfbacks for in the first place. Give em 5 years and they'll be back to buy em up again.

There's a lot to be said for "walkin' around sense".

(in reply to Marini)

Post #: 47

RE: Home sales plummet - 8/26/2010 8:14:03 PM

willbeurdaddy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Marini

quote:

ORIGINAL: Hillwilliam

It was well underway in '08

Real Estate Broker here

Would you agree with the visual chart I posted? I thought it was informative and fairly easy to follow.

http://www.mint.com/blog/finance-core/a-visual-guide-to-the-financial-crisis/

The chart is okay for basics, but it doesnt really help with timelines.

As with any financial bubble things build over time. However, the immediate cause of the crisis was Lehman Bros Bear Stearns and AIG's problems with credit default swaps. CDS were created in the early 90s, but had very slow acceptance. In the mid-2000's talk about there being a housing bubble and very risky lending practices was being poo-pooed by "main street" and the defenders of Fannie/Freddie. But the banks knew damn well what was happening because CDS were the only way to keep up with the explosion in borrowing due to the relaxed lending standards. Most of that growth in CDS occurred in 2006-2008.

_____________________________

Hear the lark
and harken
to the barking of the dogfox,
gone to ground.

(in reply to Marini)

Post #: 48

RE: Home sales plummet - 8/26/2010 8:27:03 PM

Hippiekinkster

Posts: 5512
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From: Liechtenstein
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Hillwilliam

It was well underway in '08

Real Estate Broker here

I took my cue in mid-2006 when I sold 3 of the 6 houses I owned. Quite a bit of equity there. Paid my house off. Kept two of the rentals, one of which I sold earlier this year. The other kicks off a grand a month. With that and other income, I get to sleep in.

It was a "Bernard Baruch" (IIRC) moment, sort of. "When I overheard the elevastor operator giving stock tips, I knew it was time to get out." (That was in 1929)(paraphrased)

Every soccer mom in ATL was selling (or trying to) real estate, working for a real estate co. or a mortgage co., or appraising, or whatever. Negative amort loans (deceptively called "Freedom" loans or "Your Choice" or some such horseshit).

Obama didn't have fuck-all to do with the bubbleburst.

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(in reply to Hillwilliam)

Post #: 49

RE: Home sales plummet - 8/26/2010 8:36:12 PM

willbeurdaddy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Hippiekinkster

Obama didn't have fuck-all to do with the bubbleburst.

who said he did?

_____________________________

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gone to ground.

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Post #: 50

RE: Home sales plummet - 8/26/2010 9:56:43 PM

Fellow

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I have thought the housing bubble was mostly Bush-Greenspan conspiracy to get Bush through his presidency. They knew well the economy was unable to produce enough growth without something like this.
I do not see the problem house sales plummeting and prices falling. In order to turn the economy around at least some correction needs to take place. There is a reality Americans need to cope. America still has one of the highest house ownership in developed world. The huge government subsidies to home owners must come from somewhere else. The ideology may need some correction. It is clear the propaganda encouraging home ownership for everybody serves well the financial sector but draws lot of money away from others. Without mortgages renters are able to spend much more in other areas and save that stimulates the economy arguably better.

(in reply to willbeurdaddy)

Post #: 51

RE: Home sales plummet - 8/26/2010 10:25:25 PM

willbeurdaddy

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Joined: 4/8/2006
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Fellow

I have thought the housing bubble was mostly Bush-Greenspan conspiracy to get Bush through his presidency. They knew well the economy was unable to produce enough growth without something like this.
I do not see the problem house sales plummeting and prices falling. In order to turn the economy around at least some correction needs to take place. There is a reality Americans need to cope. America still has one of the highest house ownership in developed world. The huge government subsidies to home owners must come from somewhere else. The ideology may need some correction. It is clear the propaganda encouraging home ownership for everybody serves well the financial sector but draws lot of money away from others. Without mortgages renters are able to spend much more in other areas and save that stimulates the economy arguably better.

Nice GWB/Greenspan theory, too bad it has no basis in fact.

I agree..correction was needed...the problem is that the panic created by the faux crisis led to OVERCORRECTION in many markets.

Your analysis of "renters" vs "homeowners" is all wet. The net cost of home ownership is lower than renting within similar income brackets in most areas of the country. Yes their spending is different, but in fact the spending of homeowners is arguably more stimulative than that of renters, because they spend a higher proportion of their incomes on maintenance and improvements that support manufacturing and construction, vs spending on services.

It is a simple fact that our economy is consumer driven, and that a large portion of that consumption is spent on peoples homes. That is precisely why consumer confidence being so low is a hindrance to recovery. People arent spending on their homes.

< Message edited by willbeurdaddy -- 8/26/2010 10:27:26 PM >

_____________________________

Hear the lark
and harken
to the barking of the dogfox,
gone to ground.

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Post #: 52

RE: Home sales plummet - 8/26/2010 10:30:38 PM

Hippiekinkster

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From: Liechtenstein
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Fellow

I have thought the housing bubble was mostly Bush-Greenspan conspiracy to get Bush through his presidency. They knew well the economy was unable to produce enough growth without something like this.

No, it was a combination of factors. The Bushevik ideological hatred for any sort of regulation of obscure financial instruments like CDOs and credit default swaps certainly contributed. IMO, one way to view these instruments is that the firms selling them acted as central banks do; they created "value" out of nothing. Unlike a central bank, they couldn't create money to stand behind their fraudulent paper. Once the foreclosure ball started rolling, the paper's nominal value, and its real value, converged at worthless.

quote:

I do not see the problem house sales plummeting and prices falling. In order to turn the economy around at least some correction needs to take place. There is a reality Americans need to cope. America still has one of the highest house ownership in developed world. The huge government subsidies to home owners must come from somewhere else. The ideology may need some correction. It is clear the propaganda encouraging home ownership for everybody serves well the financial sector but draws lot of money away from others. Without mortgages renters are able to spend much more in other areas and save that stimulates the economy arguably better.

Lots to address here, and I'm not in the mood. I partially agree with mortgage subsidies. There's no reason second homes should get a mortgage deduction. There's no reason million dollar homes should get a mortgage deduction. That deduction was originally designed to get the middle class into homes where they could raise their kids, and have a stake in the community. It has been perverted beyond recognition.

_____________________________

"We are convinced that freedom w/o Socialism is privilege and injustice, and that Socialism w/o freedom is slavery and brutality." Bakunin

“Nothing we do, however virtuous, can be accomplished alone; therefore we are saved by love.” Reinhold Ne

(in reply to Fellow)

Post #: 53

RE: Home sales plummet - 8/27/2010 12:25:29 AM

pogo4pres

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quote:

ORIGINAL: servantforuse

This housing freefall didn't start untill the end of Bush's term, not 6 years ago in the middle of it.

Then why were Paul Krugman & Nouriel Roubini saying housing was going to collapse in 2004 and 2005??

Historically,
Some Knucklehead in NJ

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Post #: 54

RE: Home sales plummet - 8/27/2010 2:38:46 AM

tazzygirl

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Hmmm... so... Nouriel Roubini, or Dr Doom, gave his lecture in 2006... and people thought he was insane. He gave a deeper, more depressing talk in 2007 and they called him a "prophet".

In 2007, the Democrats took control of Congress for the first time in 12 years.

Yet, this is the Democrats fault.

Interesting spin.

I never did like carney rides that went around in circles.

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Post #: 55

RE: Home sales plummet - 8/27/2010 3:25:49 AM

Sanity

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Bush was warning of the looming crisis for years prior to your Dr Doom, so wouldnt that make Bush the prophets prophet?

< Message edited by Sanity -- 8/27/2010 3:26:33 AM >

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Post #: 56

RE: Home sales plummet - 8/27/2010 3:32:34 AM

Sanity

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"Its the economy, stupid."

Bill Clinton

quote:

Snapshot of economy about to get a lot bleaker

WASHINGTON – The government is about to confirm what many people have felt for some time: The economy barely has a pulse.

The Commerce Department on Friday will revise its estimate for economic growth in the April-to-June period and Wall Street economists forecast it will be cut almost in half, to a 1.4 percent annual rate from 2.4 percent.

The article goes on to describe what is meant by "bleak" in a painfully explicit way

If the media is using words like "bleak" to describe the economy then Obamas lost them and now that hes lost his formerly fawning media, hes really lost.

_____________________________

Inside Every Liberal Is A Totalitarian Screaming To Get Out

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Post #: 57

RE: Home sales plummet - 8/27/2010 3:44:30 AM

DarkSteven

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quote:

ORIGINAL: servantforuse

If you believe that GWB is responsible for the housing collapse, just what did he do to cause it. ? The dems controlled congress.

So you are saying that regulation of the housing industry is the answer?

The obvious answer is that the housing industry collapse was caused by the deflation of the housing industry bubble. The collapse was inevitable - the question is, what caused the bubble itself?

My take is that greed and lack of ethics caused it.

1. ARMs were given to people who qualified at the initial intro rates, say 3%. Then they were packaged up as investments with a return at the final rates, say 15%. Obviously, they would be refinanced well prior to the rates rising that far, or else the house and loan would be abandoned. But that's NOT how they were presented.
2. Selling home loans became so profitable that people who were uncreditworthy were sold to.
3. The credit ratings of the CDOs were inflated. Or made up.
4. Dems, GOP, whatever. The fact is that the obscene profits in the housing industry were so massive that the industry could easily afford to buy off the lawmakers. Hell, the collapse was two years ago and there still have been no real prosecutions. With demonstrable fraud.

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Post #: 58

RE: Home sales plummet - 8/27/2010 4:54:39 AM

StrangerThan

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quote:

ORIGINAL: DarkSteven

quote:

ORIGINAL: servantforuse

If you believe that GWB is responsible for the housing collapse, just what did he do to cause it. ? The dems controlled congress.

So you are saying that regulation of the housing industry is the answer?

The obvious answer is that the housing industry collapse was caused by the deflation of the housing industry bubble. The collapse was inevitable - the question is, what caused the bubble itself?

My take is that greed and lack of ethics caused it.

1. ARMs were given to people who qualified at the initial intro rates, say 3%. Then they were packaged up as investments with a return at the final rates, say 15%. Obviously, they would be refinanced well prior to the rates rising that far, or else the house and loan would be abandoned. But that's NOT how they were presented.
2. Selling home loans became so profitable that people who were uncreditworthy were sold to.
3. The credit ratings of the CDOs were inflated. Or made up.
4. Dems, GOP, whatever. The fact is that the obscene profits in the housing industry were so massive that the industry could easily afford to buy off the lawmakers. Hell, the collapse was two years ago and there still have been no real prosecutions. With demonstrable fraud.

Both sides of the political aisle are responsible for the housing collapse. Nor is it something that started with either Obama or Bush. Both ended up being plastered by it. The housing bubble started well before either of them. Analysts and pundits have been beating this horse for a long time, thought admittedly with weak voices early on. Hell, my brother told me 10 years ago that we were headed for a housing implosion.

I like, many people, thought such talk was poppycock.

The roots go back further into the land of free-flowing credit and a vast sea of it that legislators allowed banks to siphon nearly dry. It is also one of the reasons this recession is hanging on with clenched teeth. That ocean no longer exists.

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Post #: 59

RE: Home sales plummet - 8/27/2010 9:45:47 AM

willbeurdaddy

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Joined: 4/8/2006
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Sanity

Bush was warning of the looming crisis for years prior to your Dr Doom, so wouldnt that make Bush the prophets prophet?

Dont bother. The history of the financial crisis has been so well documented so many times that liberal denial makes the cog dis thread look like a nursery rhyme.

_____________________________

Hear the lark
and harken
to the barking of the dogfox,
gone to ground.

(in reply to Sanity)

Post #: 60

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