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RE: Home sales plummet - 8/27/2010 10:12:42 AM   
tazzygirl


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Sanity


Bush was warning of the looming crisis for years prior to your Dr Doom, so wouldnt that make Bush the prophets prophet?








quote:

Hmmm... so... Nouriel Roubini, or Dr Doom, gave his lecture in 2006... and people thought he was insane. He gave a deeper, more depressing talk in 2007 and they called him a "prophet".

In 2007, the Democrats took control of Congress for the first time in 12 years.

Yet, this is the Democrats fault.

Interesting spin.

I never did like carney rides that went around in circles.


Show me where i said it was the fault of Bush or the GOP.

As of 2007, Congress had been under the control of the GOP. In direct conflict with this post...

quote:

If you believe that GWB is responsible for the housing collapse, just what did he do to cause it. ? The dems controlled congress.


So, through the past two administrations, we have seen times when the President cannot control the outcome of his own party, let alone the other.

Bush pointed out the doom of Fannie Mae and Freedie Mac 34 times since 2001. Yet he couldnt get anything passed through his own party held congress. Much like we are seeing with Obamas.

But, Freedie and Fannie were not the cause of the housing burst.

August 27, 2010
Fannie, Freddie did not cause the housing crisis
This is an old theme, but it bears repeating when new information is presented. The right keeps blaring that liberals caused the housing bubble by showering money upon poor people through Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. (And through other channels via CRA requirements, as commenters have noted. Thanks Josh.) So it must be repeatedly countered. I have no love for Fannie/Fred. Almost nobody other than the Wall Street Journal's editorial page was more critical of them than me in the years leading up to the disaster. They were ghastly government/private mutants, with taxpayers taking on all the risk and shareholders reaping incredible profits until the end.

But the fact is that they played a relatively minor role in the subprime bubble. They got into subprime only after they started losing market share to Wall Street, which was leading the subprime and Alt-A parade. They never had more than 13 20 percent of their originations in subprime. The table below shows the action. It's from a new "autopsy" of Fannie and Fred, of which the NYT's Economix blog has a good summary.

The vast majority of loan defaults have not been made by the poor. And Fannie & Fred weren't lending much to low-income folks anyway.

UPDATE: For the complete demolition of the "Fan/Fred caused the bubble" argument see the blog Big Picture by Barry Ritholtz, who's hardly an apologist for soft-headed liberals. See Ritholtz posts here and here and especially here. Then read his book, Bailout Nation

http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/business/hancock/blog/2010/08/fannie_freddie_did_not_cause_t.html

Today in a House Oversight Committee hearing with former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan, SEC chairman Christopher Cox, and former Treasury secretary John Snow, Rep. John Mica (R-FL) revived that argument. He also tried to tie the crisis to Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL), holding up a chart called “Follow the Money Trail.” He pointed that Obama has been the largest recipient of donations from Freddie and Fannie. (Actually, he’s the second highest.)........ (the hightest? McCain)

Committee chairman Henry Waxman (D-CA) chastised Mica for trying to turn the financial crisis into a political issue. He noted that Freddie and Fannie “certainly played a role” in the current situation, but then asked the witnesses, “Do any of you believe that they were the cause of this financial crisis?” All three men said no.

~Video included on the link

Federal housing data back up this conclusion — that “the private sector, not the government or government-backed companies, was behind the soaring subprime lending at the core of the crisis.” As Center for American Progress Senior Fellows Michael S. Barr and Gene Sperling explain, Freddie and Fannie weren’t even securitizing subprime mortgages en-masse until 2005:

The subprime boom was led by investment banks and mortgage brokers, not by government-sponsored enterprises. Fannie and Freddie became unhinged in the middle of this decade when they tried to play catch-up. Their shareholders and managers pushed them to recover the securitization market share they had lost to unregulated investment banks getting absurd AAA ratings for packaging subprime dross. From 2005 to 2008, Fannie Mae purchased or guaranteed $270 billion in loans to risky borrowers — triple the amount in all its earlier years combined.

As Center for Economic and Policy Research co-director Dean Baker has written, “Fannie and Freddie got into subprime junk and helped fuel the housing bubble, but they were trailing the irrational exuberance of the private sector. They lost market share in the years 2002-2007, as the volume of private issue mortgage backed securities exploded.” More here on “how did this happen.”

http://thinkprogress.org/2008/10/23/mica-waxman/

Its my contention that the Federal Government has enough blame to spread around to all parties. Blaming only Obama or only Bush is just rediculous.

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If you want it sugar coated, dont ask me what i think! It would violate TOS.

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Profile   Post #: 61
RE: Home sales plummet - 8/27/2010 11:22:03 AM   
Hillwilliam


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Kind of an aside here.  Does anyone else see parallels between the housing boom/bust of the last 4 years fueled by subprime mortgages and "house flippers" and the stock market boom/bust of the mid/late 90's fueled by day traders?

(in reply to tazzygirl)
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RE: Home sales plummet - 8/27/2010 1:14:11 PM   
willbeurdaddy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Hillwilliam

Kind of an aside here.  Does anyone else see parallels between the housing boom/bust of the last 4 years fueled by subprime mortgages and "house flippers" and the stock market boom/bust of the mid/late 90's fueled by day traders?


No, because day traders had virtually nothing to do with the stock market boom.

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Hear the lark
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to the barking of the dogfox,
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(in reply to Hillwilliam)
Profile   Post #: 63
RE: Home sales plummet - 8/27/2010 1:48:20 PM   
Hillwilliam


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I dunno about that.  If you get a couple of hundred thousand people that dont know squat about stocks except that you can buy and sell them and supposedly make enough money to retire on before then end of the month buying and selling like crazy, that will drive up demand and thus prices.  Then, when said people except for a few thousand lucky ones go broke and start saying SELLLLLLLLLLLLLL all at once, prices will go down.

(in reply to willbeurdaddy)
Profile   Post #: 64
RE: Home sales plummet - 8/27/2010 2:54:20 PM   
willbeurdaddy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Hillwilliam

I dunno about that.  If you get a couple of hundred thousand people that dont know squat about stocks except that you can buy and sell them and supposedly make enough money to retire on before then end of the month buying and selling like crazy, that will drive up demand and thus prices.  Then, when said people except for a few thousand lucky ones go broke and start saying SELLLLLLLLLLLLLL all at once, prices will go down.


First of all their trades dont represent enough volume to signficantly have a supply and demand impact. Second traditional investors price their buys on fundamentals so supply and demand has very little to do with it anyway. To put it another way the demand curve is generally 100% (of the desired number of shares) buy up to a given price and 0% buy beyond that price. Unless the day traders create supply at or less than the price the investor is willing to pay, they have no impact.

I'd also suggest that your characterization of day traders as "not knowing squat" is off base...they just dont know enough to overcome their capitalization problems. While they tend to be more technical than fundamentals based traders, there is still significant research that goes into their trading strategies and they know more than the average non-institutional investor. The problem is that its a negative sum game because of commissions on both sides of the deal, and any given trader's results are essentially a random walk (without "insider knowledge") with a mean of [minus the commission rate]. Since they dont have unlimited capital, they go broke eventually.

_____________________________

Hear the lark
and harken
to the barking of the dogfox,
gone to ground.

(in reply to Hillwilliam)
Profile   Post #: 65
RE: Home sales plummet - 8/27/2010 5:35:50 PM   
Hillwilliam


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Kinda like trying to make a living playing roulette against the 'house' eh?

I'll still disagree with you, though, on then not having the volume. Seasoned investors tend to buy a stock and sit on it, sometimes for years. Day traders were buying and selling the same stock sometimes several times per day. this artificially propped up demand over normal and drove prices up.. Old style traders would spot a trend and buy on the upswing as well. Prob is, they didnt go whole hog. Net result, day traders went broke and the traditional investors lost a little.

I guess we'll have to agree to disagree on this one.

(in reply to willbeurdaddy)
Profile   Post #: 66
RE: Home sales plummet - 8/27/2010 7:43:24 PM   
truckinslave


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quote:

dating back to the repeal of Glass Steagall.


Didn't the Community Reinvestment Act start us down this road long before that?

Is anyone- that is, anyfuckinone- suggesting the repeal of the CRA and the repassage of G-S?

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1. Islam and sharia are indivisible.
2. Sharia is barbaric, homophobic, violent, and inimical to the most basic Western values (including free speech and freedom of religion). (Yeah, I know: SEE: Irony 101).
ERGO: Islam has no place in America.

(in reply to willbeurdaddy)
Profile   Post #: 67
RE: Home sales plummet - 8/27/2010 7:46:25 PM   
truckinslave


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quote:

Almost every source I looked at on the net, stated we were in trouble in 2005-2006.


Were thos contemporaneous sources, or hindsight? Perhaps you didn't read Barney Frank on the subject? The Dems blocked all attempts at corrections.

Some Rs saw it coming, but obviously didn't do nearly enough to act on that insight.

_____________________________

1. Islam and sharia are indivisible.
2. Sharia is barbaric, homophobic, violent, and inimical to the most basic Western values (including free speech and freedom of religion). (Yeah, I know: SEE: Irony 101).
ERGO: Islam has no place in America.

(in reply to Marini)
Profile   Post #: 68
RE: Home sales plummet - 8/27/2010 10:35:32 PM   
willbeurdaddy


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Joined: 4/8/2006
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quote:

ORIGINAL: truckinslave

quote:

dating back to the repeal of Glass Steagall.


Didn't the Community Reinvestment Act start us down this road long before that?

Is anyone- that is, anyfuckinone- suggesting the repeal of the CRA and the repassage of G-S?


A chicken and egg issue...without the breakdown of the walls between invesment and depository banks the CDS boom could not have happened and CRA couldnt have resulted in the explosion of bad paper because it couldnt have been buried for as long. So, yeah CRA had its role, but the profit in creating and passing off bad paper could have occurred without CRA. CRAs biggest role might have been to give cover to the loose lending standards in the name of compliance and to ward off the pressure from Acorn et al.

_____________________________

Hear the lark
and harken
to the barking of the dogfox,
gone to ground.

(in reply to truckinslave)
Profile   Post #: 69
RE: Home sales plummet - 8/27/2010 11:28:52 PM   
truckinslave


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Joined: 6/16/2004
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quote:

CRAs biggest role might have been to give cover to the loose lending standards in the name of compliance and to ward off the pressure from Acorn et al.


Well, that's pretty much my take on it; what am I missing by saying it proves my point?

Without the (fatally) looser loaning standards, the CDS boom would not have ended as it did? If the loans were good... there's no bust, right?

_____________________________

1. Islam and sharia are indivisible.
2. Sharia is barbaric, homophobic, violent, and inimical to the most basic Western values (including free speech and freedom of religion). (Yeah, I know: SEE: Irony 101).
ERGO: Islam has no place in America.

(in reply to willbeurdaddy)
Profile   Post #: 70
RE: Home sales plummet - 8/28/2010 4:31:19 PM   
willbeurdaddy


Posts: 11894
Joined: 4/8/2006
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quote:

ORIGINAL: truckinslave

quote:

CRAs biggest role might have been to give cover to the loose lending standards in the name of compliance and to ward off the pressure from Acorn et al.


Well, that's pretty much my take on it; what am I missing by saying it proves my point?

Without the (fatally) looser loaning standards, the CDS boom would not have ended as it did? If the loans were good... there's no bust, right?


Not missing anything..as I said just a chicken and egg issue...the CRA was the egg but without being fertilized by Glass-Steagall's repeal no chicken...so either one can be said to be the source of the problem, I just take the sperm's pov. ;) (And given who signed the repeal, I love the analogy!)


_____________________________

Hear the lark
and harken
to the barking of the dogfox,
gone to ground.

(in reply to truckinslave)
Profile   Post #: 71
RE: Home sales plummet - 9/1/2010 1:13:29 AM   
Hippiekinkster


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Joined: 11/20/2007
From: Liechtenstein
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quote:

ORIGINAL: willbeurdaddy


quote:

ORIGINAL: truckinslave

quote:

CRAs biggest role might have been to give cover to the loose lending standards in the name of compliance and to ward off the pressure from Acorn et al.


Well, that's pretty much my take on it; what am I missing by saying it proves my point?

Without the (fatally) looser loaning standards, the CDS boom would not have ended as it did? If the loans were good... there's no bust, right?


Not missing anything..as I said just a chicken and egg issue...the CRA was the egg but without being fertilized by Glass-Steagall's repeal no chicken...so either one can be said to be the source of the problem, I just take the sperm's pov. ;) (And given who signed the repeal, I love the analogy!)

I find it pathetically comical how rightards end up blaming poor people for forcing all these tough mortgage bankers to give them money. Never a word about AIG or Goldman Sachs or CDOs or bundled mortgages sold as A+ paper with the collusion of the underwriting agencies like Moody's et alia.

Nope, it's always Acorn and poor people and Barney Frank. Yeah, right, Barney made the entire mortgage banking and bundled mortgage selling businesses his bitches.
"No, Barney! Don't fuck me anymore without lube! We'll sell subprime mortgage guarantees as A+ paper!" Hahahaha rightards...


_____________________________

"We are convinced that freedom w/o Socialism is privilege and injustice, and that Socialism w/o freedom is slavery and brutality." Bakunin

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(in reply to willbeurdaddy)
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RE: Home sales plummet - 9/1/2010 8:02:30 AM   
StrangerThan


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This is one place where I would love to see a full scale, transparent investigation.

I don't have a spreadsheet kind of mind that remembers everything that ever touched it. What I mostly have seen is both sides pointing fingers and trying to blame the other. I would love to see the whole friggin mess laid out, from the place it was born running up to present.

I'd love to see it, but never will. I think if this shit was laid out clear and precise, a lot of Americans would forget about parties and head for both washington and wall street with pitchforks and torches.


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Profile   Post #: 73
RE: Home sales plummet - 9/1/2010 8:36:49 AM   
brokedickdog


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Stranger,

That is being compiled at present. In fact there are a number of people that already have, though admittedly the picture continues to change as the research goes deeper and more information is brought out into the light of day. Yes, much of the information is being hidden, or even supressed. Most of the lawsuits that involve the larger/largest players have yet to have been granted either full or meaningful discovery and that will ultimately be needed, and that in multiple suits, before the entire picture can be filled in. If there are any that don't know what discovery is I offer the following: statements, admissions and production of documents all done under oath and subject to penalties of perjury.

Painting in the broadest of strokes what is clear is that the parties that profited most from the mess are working very hard to keep the information from being brought forward. They have all been fighting discovery tooth and nail. Among the ways they do this is by settling, as was the case in the SEC suit against Goldman/Sachs. Goldman paid a pittance of a penalty, was indemnified against future litigation AND there was no meaningful discovery (at least I am not aware of any meaningful discovery having taken place in that case).

The information I have read that I consider to be the most unbiased, and most accurate, is mostly coming from victims of the frauds. It seems that once you become a victim any party affiliation or bias falls by the wayside.  To them the ONLY thing that matters is finding the truth, stopping or correcting the fraud and having the guilty party held accountable. If one goes into the search for information needed to fight against the fraud with a belief the perpetrators are only cut from one type of cloth then they've lost before they have begun.

I can you assure of this: Filing suit and parading into court with an argument based on something like "This is all the fault of the Repulicans, and particularly Phil Graham and George W. Bush" will get your case tossed out so fast it will make your head spin. In the alternative one wouldn't get any further with "This is all the fault of the Democrats, and particularly Barney Frank and Barack Obama!"

As to your conclusion I think you are spot on.

(in reply to StrangerThan)
Profile   Post #: 74
RE: Home sales plummet - 9/1/2010 10:00:26 AM   
brokedickdog


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Stranger,

William Black is a voice, seemingly a lone voice in the wilderness, that has been screaming about the vast and multi-layered frauds. While I previously suggested that most of the unbiased research is being done by victims in the trenches, and while I still believe that, there certainly are exceptions to that. Black is one. This is a rather short video (about 8 minutes) of testimony he offered to the House Financial Services Committee in respect of the issues with Lehman Bros. back in 2008. I'm not certain the date of the testimony itself.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3-HTylLzXu8

You will also note there are numerous other links to vids of Black offering testimony, opinions, interviews. His CV is rather extensive and his experience as a former regulator (during the S&L crisis) certainly gives him the requisite credibility. He recently authored a book titled "The Best Way to Rob a Bank is to Own One."

(in reply to brokedickdog)
Profile   Post #: 75
RE: Home sales plummet - 9/1/2010 10:05:06 AM   
StrangerThan


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Gotta love that title for the book.

I'll check it out.

And yes, I can believe there are all sorts of people who don't want it laid out in clear and precise terms.

Thanks


_____________________________


--'Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to reform' - Mark Twain

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Profile   Post #: 76
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