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Experts see trouble ahead for developed world - 9/5/2010 8:35:13 PM   
Marini


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Status: offline 		Here is an interesting article from "The Economic Times".
Nouriel Roubino who predicted the global recession in 2008, warned that there is a BIG chance of a double-dip "recession" in the United States, Europe and Japan.


http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international-business/Experts-see-trouble-ahead-for-developed-world/articleshow/6487011.cms

It seems like many well respected economic experts agree, that the economy in many countries doesn't look promising any time soon.

As many of us already know, the conditions that sparked the global recession, have not really changed, and we are in a holding pattern at best.

Harvard University historian "Niall Ferguson" stated that the United States will soon be spending MORE on debt service, than national security!

What I also found really interesting in this article was the following statement:

"Most of the world's growth stems from a developing world led by China which is so dependent on exports that it needs the West to continue to buy, and so will suffer if recovery in the rich world proves short-lived."

I am sure this is not record-breaking news for many of us, but since we are now in a "global economy", it is interesting to see how so many countries are being affected BY this "global economy" we now find ourselves in.

It appears when one country begins to stumble or fall, many other countries stumble and fall also, interesting.

< Message edited by Marini -- 9/5/2010 9:08:48 PM >

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RE: Experts see trouble ahead for developed world - 9/5/2010 11:33:18 PM   
Fellow


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Status: offline 		Paul Krugman blog today:

Delusion #1 is that we’re on the road to recovery,

[ http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/09/05/delusions-of-recovery/ ]

Regarding China, it needs to be seen. Totalitarian states have the ability to cope better in crisis situation. We should not forget China has huge surpluses and foreign currency reserves. They may be sufficient to make structural changes needed relatively painlessly. USA has limited ability to develop  and execute economic reforms  due to the power structure, dept and corruption. It is quite evident the countries with productive economies are on the top of the game (from Western side Germany, one of the important exporters,  shows good recovery). In more distant future, at some point, USA may become irrelevant. Great Britain has gone through this process.

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RE: Experts see trouble ahead for developed world - 9/6/2010 12:18:07 AM   
popeye1250


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Status: offline 		We need to get the debt down and thus that debt service and that means *cuts* or *much higher taxes*.
And, we're not in a "recovery." "Would you like chocolate sprinkles on that double dip?"

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RE: Experts see trouble ahead for developed world - 9/6/2010 7:25:09 AM   
Aneirin


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Status: offline 		The recession of 2008 should have taught everyone a valuable lesson as a result people should be very wary now, but I am hearing now the recession is supposedly over, people are going back to their old ways, and more so they are being encouraged to do so, completely nuts !

But we are told it is good for the country's economy, where in that is it good for the individual as we know large finance and government don't care about the individual, what happens to them and their dependants when shit hits the fan as it did in 2008.

My personal policy is a case of once bitten, twice shy and I was not a typical consumer then either, quite the reverse in fact, but what the crash taught me, was to look after my own and bollocks to the creators of the mayhem and their political sycophants, for they will never feel the conditions those of us at the bottom of the economic ladder feel when things fuck up.

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RE: Experts see trouble ahead for developed world - 9/6/2010 7:36:38 AM   
pahunkboy


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Status: offline 		and YOU will do WHAT about it?


Sorry folks- but this is an 80 year cycle.   It happens since the min 4th century.  The masses get wiped out.

Hoard gold/silver/food/ammo.

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RE: Experts see trouble ahead for developed world - 9/6/2010 7:43:33 AM   
DarkSteven


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quote:

ORIGINAL: popeye1250

We need to get the debt down and thus that debt service and that means *cuts* or *much higher taxes*.



Unfortunately, the Dems are ignoring that altogether while the GOP still claims that tax cuts will magically solve everything.


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RE: Experts see trouble ahead for developed world - 9/6/2010 7:43:50 AM   
willbeurdaddy


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Status: offline 		"Harvard University historian "Niall Ferguson" stated that the United States will soon be spending MORE on debt service, than national security! "

At the current pace we will soon be spending more on debt service than the entire world spends on national security.

And while it is true that totalitarian states can be more nimble in facing crises, they still require a leader with the vision to allocate resources in nearly the same manner as the free market. A capitalist system with a knowledgable electorate can be nearly as nimble and far more accurate in allocating resources. We will see how knowledgable the electorate is 11/2.

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RE: Experts see trouble ahead for developed world - 9/6/2010 7:58:43 AM   
Aneirin


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quote:

ORIGINAL: pahunkboy

and YOU will do WHAT about it?


Sorry folks- but this is an 80 year cycle.   It happens since the min 4th century.  The masses get wiped out.

Hoard gold/silver/food/ammo.



Or at least start to gather the skills which will be of use when money is not around so much. I have no car, so gas is not a problem, locally I walk everywhere and there are some mean hills around here, other times I cycle or use public transport. It's a hassle, but it works. The purchasing of things, foodstuffs and the like, well I use a back pack for shopping, so over spending is fairly well out of the question as that extra one buys on a whim one has to carry it, perhaps shopping with a vehicle to carry is part reason for over spending.

My diet is more of an Asian diet, consisting of mostly rice, fish and seafood, rice is heavy, but it's cheap and goes a long way, fish and seafood, I collect myself, also mushrooms and other forgotten wild foods. Seaweed is my next venture with sea lettuce being one of the most nutritional plants on the planet.

Defence, well that is a problem, we can't have guns, knives or curved swords, but I have a bill hook and I am very proficient with a sling and can lob a half brick 250 yards with a high degree of accuracy, the terminal velocity of that brick makes it shatter on impact if it hits harder than itself. I believe I can defend myself if need be, but the best defence is not being seen in the first place, so hiding is the way.

I am I think, moving away from the consumerist, moving more towards what humans were supposed to be before we got herded and controlled into the machine that satisfies the few at the top.

I don't doubt there is going to be another financial disaster, it has happened too many times and always the poor suffer most, I am one of the poor and I know what is coming, so I study and practise skills that may very well be needed, but if they are not, then I can satisfy myself that I am not totally dependant on government and banks.

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RE: Experts see trouble ahead for developed world - 9/6/2010 8:23:52 AM   
LanceHughes


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Aneirin
<snipped>
I am I think, moving away from the consumerist, moving more towards what humans were supposed to be before we got herded and controlled into the machine that satisfies the few at the top.
<snipped>

This bit made me LOL! Electric supply?  Internet access?

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RE: Experts see trouble ahead for developed world - 9/6/2010 8:29:54 AM   
Lordandmaster


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Status: offline 		That's a pretty disappointing blog. He hardly says anything other than "the situation sucks."

quote:

ORIGINAL: Fellow

Paul Krugman blog today:

Delusion #1 is that we’re on the road to recovery,

[ http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/09/05/delusions-of-recovery/ ]


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RE: Experts see trouble ahead for developed world - 9/6/2010 8:58:12 AM   
Aneirin


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From: Tamaris
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quote:

ORIGINAL: LanceHughes

quote:

ORIGINAL: Aneirin
<snipped>
I am I think, moving away from the consumerist, moving more towards what humans were supposed to be before we got herded and controlled into the machine that satisfies the few at the top.
<snipped>

This bit made me LOL! Electric supply?  Internet access?


Yep, still linked to that whilst it is there, but I am building a VAWT turbine for the sake of interest at the moment, just so I know about them if I should need one. The interesting part, is the alternator, which is made from plywood, glass fibre resin and copper coils, the copper coils being what decides the output. The stator, is the aerofoils themselves fitted with rare earth magnets. I also have been experimenting with wood gas heaters and home made solar panels, bush technology perhaps.

And it is the internet where I communicate with similar minds about common interests, the issue of perma culture and alternative living, so the internet is important to me, unlike the tv.

Vis a future where things are not as available as they are now, who says we have to go back to the stone age, for knowledge is such now that we can apply modern day technological principles to whatever and wherever we need to be and live reasonable comfortably. In fact perhaps people would do well to learn to thrive in a situation where there were less luxuries, they might even find things once thought important be resigned to unnecessary and we might actually discover the meaning of life which has been lost in our consumerist fads we buy to fill the void that we know where there is something missing from life.

< Message edited by Aneirin -- 9/6/2010 9:05:30 AM >

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RE: Experts see trouble ahead for developed world - 9/6/2010 12:16:12 PM   
popeye1250


Posts: 18104
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Status: offline 		When a recession is "over" everyone knows it's over.
What's happening now is that "govt." and others in the financial world are trying to "sell" everyone that the recession is over when it's not.
Listen to Larry Kudlow on MSNBC any night during the work week!
He's constantly talking about "green shoots" or whatever popping up.
One of the *main ingredients* we need for a reccession to end is "stock market capitulation" and we haven't had it yet.

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RE: Experts see trouble ahead for developed world - 9/6/2010 12:20:41 PM   
juliaoceania


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quote:

ORIGINAL: popeye1250

We need to get the debt down and thus that debt service and that means *cuts* or *much higher taxes*.
And, we're not in a "recovery." "Would you like chocolate sprinkles on that double dip?"


The only place we have left to cut is defense

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RE: Experts see trouble ahead for developed world - 9/6/2010 12:56:44 PM   
pahunkboy


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Status: offline 		we over spend on defense.

yikes.

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RE: Experts see trouble ahead for developed world - 9/6/2010 1:30:26 PM   
Aneirin


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quote:

ORIGINAL: juliaoceania


quote:

ORIGINAL: popeye1250

We need to get the debt down and thus that debt service and that means *cuts* or *much higher taxes*.
And, we're not in a "recovery." "Would you like chocolate sprinkles on that double dip?"


The only place we have left to cut is defense


Or is that attack?

_____________________________

Everything we are is the result of what we have thought, the mind is everything, what we think, we become - Guatama Buddha

Conservatism is distrust of people tempered by fear - William Gladstone

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RE: Experts see trouble ahead for developed world - 9/6/2010 1:37:05 PM   
servantforuse


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Status: offline 		Obama is in Milwaukee as we speak. His new proposal is to spend another 50 billion for yet one more stimulus plan.He just doesn't seem to get it. We don't have the money.

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RE: Experts see trouble ahead for developed world - 9/6/2010 1:53:39 PM   
pahunkboy


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Status: offline 		I am in NO hurry for austerity.



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RE: Experts see trouble ahead for developed world - 9/6/2010 3:39:07 PM   
popeye1250


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quote:

ORIGINAL: servantforuse

Obama is in Milwaukee as we speak. His new proposal is to spend another 50 billion for yet one more stimulus plan.He just doesn't seem to get it. We don't have the money.



True, we don't have the money.
And who does he want to give that money to, I bet dollars to donuts not, "The People!"
More bankers and insurance cos?
Giving money to rich people won't get the economy going.
And, you can't spend your way out of debt!

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RE: Experts see trouble ahead for developed world - 9/6/2010 4:31:58 PM   
pahunkboy


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Status: offline 		Money is debt.   Federal reserve notes- are  DEBT.


It is fat finger fiat- created out of thin air.

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RE: Experts see trouble ahead for developed world - 9/6/2010 5:17:57 PM   
Marini


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Status: offline 		I agree with Delusion #1, we have not had a real "recovery", I guess smoke and mirrors does fool some of the people, some of the time.

According to the Washington Post, the Democrats are prepared to propose big spending cuts, and even President Obama has stated several times that big cuts were coming.

I do believe even more budget cuts are in our near future, and than the other shoe will drop.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/09/03/AR2010090306172.html

< Message edited by Marini -- 9/6/2010 5:19:16 PM >

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As always, To EACH their Own.
"And as we let our own light shine, we unconsciously give other people permission to do the same. "
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NOT a Republican/Moderate and free agent

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