New European Economic Growth Forecasts (Full Version)

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DCWoody -> New European Economic Growth Forecasts (9/13/2010 3:37:07 AM)

Germany              3.4
Spain                  -0.3
France                 1.6
Italy                   1.1
Netherlands          1.9
Eurozone             1.7
Poland                 3.4 (worth noting, Poland, unlike everyone else, grew during 09 too)
United Kingdom     1.7
EU                      1.8


This is a significant increase from earlier predictions....and may still be an underestimation. I don't know so much about the others, but the UK has grown ~1.5% during the first half of 2010....it doesn't seem likely to me that we're going to only end up with 0.1% for each of the remaining quarters.

Good news all round, even for the struggling nations like Spain.....this is better than previous estimates.



willbeurdaddy -> RE: New European Economic Growth Forecasts (9/13/2010 8:23:31 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: DCWoody

Germany              3.4
Spain                  -0.3
France                 1.6
Italy                   1.1
Netherlands          1.9
Eurozone             1.7
Poland                 3.4 (worth noting, Poland, unlike everyone else, grew during 09 too)
United Kingdom     1.7
EU                      1.8


This is a significant increase from earlier predictions....and may still be an underestimation. I don't know so much about the others, but the UK has grown ~1.5% during the first half of 2010....it doesn't seem likely to me that we're going to only end up with 0.1% for each of the remaining quarters.

Good news all round, even for the struggling nations like Spain.....this is better than previous estimates.


The 1.7% is already annualized. To get to 1.7% for the year after half a year of 1.5% takes annualized growth of 1.9%.



DomYngBlk -> RE: New European Economic Growth Forecasts (9/13/2010 8:24:15 AM)

What is the difference between EU and Eurozone?



taleon -> RE: New European Economic Growth Forecasts (9/13/2010 8:35:09 AM)

The Eurozone is composed of all the EU-countries that use the Euro as their currency; a subset of the EU basically. Of the 27 nations currently in the EU, 16 use the Euro. In theory, all EU nations are obliged to join the Eurozone at some point in the future... but this wouldn't be the EU if things in practice were really that simple. The UK, for example, has managed to negotiate itself out of that obligation.



DCWoody -> RE: New European Economic Growth Forecasts (9/13/2010 9:11:58 AM)

@Willbe, the whole 'annualising' thing is just something american politicians do to make their figures sound awesome. 1.7 is the EU commissions prediction for 2010. 0.3 is the official results for q1 2010, 1.2 for q2 (although there's still some scope that could be updated as more accurate info comes in).

1.5% actual results for first 6 months. 1.7% prediction for entire year.

@DomY, taleon has it...except there is no obligation, can be in EU but remain out of EZ forever. Germany is in the EU and EZ, UK in EU, but not EZ. etc.

There's some complication atm for Estonia, who don't use the Euro yet, but have decided to and everything is set up for them to come in sometime next year....so depending who you ask they may or may not be counted as part of EZ.



taleon -> RE: New European Economic Growth Forecasts (9/13/2010 9:44:25 AM)

quote:

taleon has it...except there is no obligation

Well, wasn't sure about that myself, so I looked it up in Wikipedia.

quote:

All member states of the EU, except for Denmark, the United Kingdom and de facto Sweden, are obliged to adopt the euro as their sole currency when they meet the criteria.

From the Enlargement of the Eurozone article.

Not sure why that is, though. I thought it was established in the treaty of Maastricht, but in the article dealing with that treaty, I couldn't find where it states that it is actually obligatory for those countries which are financially fit enough to introduce the euro.




DCWoody -> RE: New European Economic Growth Forecasts (9/13/2010 9:58:41 AM)

I didn't know the details. It seems like they're said to be 'obliged' to join because they've (voluntarily) signed up to joining....and nations that didn't want to join, aren't 'obliged'.



popeye1250 -> RE: New European Economic Growth Forecasts (9/13/2010 12:31:08 PM)

I guess half an apple looks good if you don't have one.
Those figures are probably better than in the U.S. I think we're probably going the other way, down.



DCWoody -> RE: New European Economic Growth Forecasts (9/13/2010 12:41:49 PM)

I don't know what you mean by that or which post you're responding to.



willbeurdaddy -> RE: New European Economic Growth Forecasts (9/13/2010 12:44:06 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: DCWoody

@Willbe, the whole 'annualising' thing is just something american politicians do to make their figures sound awesome. 1.7 is the EU commissions prediction for 2010. 0.3 is the official results for q1 2010, 1.2 for q2 (although there's still some scope that could be updated as more accurate info comes in).

1.5% actual results for first 6 months. 1.7% prediction for entire year.

@DomY, taleon has it...except there is no obligation, can be in EU but remain out of EZ forever. Germany is in the EU and EZ, UK in EU, but not EZ. etc.

There's some complication atm for Estonia, who don't use the Euro yet, but have decided to and everything is set up for them to come in sometime next year....so depending who you ask they may or may not be counted as part of EZ.




The 1.1%, revised to 1.2%, are annualized rates, not year to date rates.

BBC news




popeye1250 -> RE: New European Economic Growth Forecasts (9/13/2010 12:51:48 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: DCWoody

I don't know what you mean by that or which post you're responding to.


DC, what I mean is that things are awful here in the U.S. No jobs and no job growth on the horizon.
All the financial touts keep telling us about some "recovery" that never seems to materialize. They're "whistling past the graveyard."
To have any type of "recovery" the working and middle classes need to have *money* to spend and it just isn't there!
What good is a tax cut going to do if you're broke?



DCWoody -> RE: New European Economic Growth Forecasts (9/13/2010 1:07:17 PM)

@Popey, AFAIK the recession ended in the USA late 2009. Employment lags by 1-2 years.....it should be beggining to get better around now.....and back to roughly as good/bad as things were beforehand by the end of 2011. If you have the actual date that the us recession ended.....add a year, I'll bet it'll be very close to when unemployment begins to fall.

@willbe....first, why is that link labeled BBC news?

Second....I'm afraid your source is bad. The 1.2% was the 2nd quarter growth.....NOT the 2nd quarter growth multiplied by 4. Added to the 0.3% growth in q1, it makes 1.5% so far this year.

Annualisation is NOT the norm outside the usa....you can clearly see here
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=192

That the quarters are treated individually, and not multiplied/averaged. Each quarter has it's individual growth, which is added at the end of the year to give total growth (or shrink last year) for that year.



willbeurdaddy -> RE: New European Economic Growth Forecasts (9/13/2010 1:44:32 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: DCWoody

@Popey, AFAIK the recession ended in the USA late 2009. Employment lags by 1-2 years.....it should be beggining to get better around now.....and back to roughly as good/bad as things were beforehand by the end of 2011. If you have the actual date that the us recession ended.....add a year, I'll bet it'll be very close to when unemployment begins to fall.

@willbe....first, why is that link labeled BBC news?

Second....I'm afraid your source is bad. The 1.2% was the 2nd quarter growth.....NOT the 2nd quarter growth multiplied by 4. Added to the 0.3% growth in q1, it makes 1.5% so far this year.

Annualisation is NOT the norm outside the usa....you can clearly see here
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=192

That the quarters are treated individually, and not multiplied/averaged. Each quarter has it's individual growth, which is added at the end of the year to give total growth (or shrink last year) for that year.



Here is the BBC link which quotes Eurostat. Again, it very clearly states that the 1.2% is an annualized rate.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11282137



DCWoody -> RE: New European Economic Growth Forecasts (9/13/2010 2:41:32 PM)

Ahhhh, I can see why you're confused, an easy mistake...no biggie.
The EU makes forecasts twice a year, and their spring forecast was for the UK to grow 1.2% in the whole of 2010, by pure coincidence the actual amount the UK grew in q2 2010 was also 1.2%, and the more recent EU commision forecast is for 1.7% in the whole of 2010. When it says 'spring forecast' that means 'the forecast for 2010 growth made by the commision this spring', not the actual rate of growth in spring 2010....it's just coincidence the two numbers are the same. Repeat:Annualisation is not used over here. Annualised is not the same as Annual....annualised is just some bullshit excuse to multiply the figure by 4, and rarely actually matches the real annual rate.



hertz -> RE: New European Economic Growth Forecasts (9/13/2010 2:44:16 PM)

Anyone who thinks the UK economy is going to grow in the forseeable future is in fairy land. We have a government which is dedicating itself to creating a new recession.



DCWoody -> RE: New European Economic Growth Forecasts (9/13/2010 2:54:27 PM)

Oh drop the partisan bollocks. Suggesting that one party or the other is intentionally ruining the country is beyond ridiculous.



Hippiekinkster -> RE: New European Economic Growth Forecasts (9/13/2010 2:54:55 PM)

Looks like the Socialist Paradise of Deutschland once again leads the West... don't they know Socialism doesn't work? Where is Reagan when you really need him? He'd set them Jerries straight, by cracky.



willbeurdaddy -> RE: New European Economic Growth Forecasts (9/13/2010 3:27:53 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Hippiekinkster

Looks like the Socialist Paradise of Deutschland once again leads the West... don't they know Socialism doesn't work? Where is Reagan when you really need him? He'd set them Jerries straight, by cracky.


Germany is less "socialist" then the US with regard to business, with less regulation in most areas, significantly lower corporate tax rates and exemption of a portion of dividends paid from individual income taxes. But why let facts get in the way of being a wiseass.



DCWoody -> RE: New European Economic Growth Forecasts (9/13/2010 3:37:34 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: willbeurdaddy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Hippiekinkster

Looks like the Socialist Paradise of Deutschland once again leads the West... don't they know Socialism doesn't work? Where is Reagan when you really need him? He'd set them Jerries straight, by cracky.


Germany is less "socialist" then the US with regard to business, with less regulation in most areas, significantly lower corporate tax rates and exemption of a portion of dividends paid from individual income taxes. But why let facts get in the way of being a wiseass.



[sm=abducted.gif]



Hippiekinkster -> RE: New European Economic Growth Forecasts (9/13/2010 3:44:13 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: willbeurdaddy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Hippiekinkster

Looks like the Socialist Paradise of Deutschland once again leads the West... don't they know Socialism doesn't work? Where is Reagan when you really need him? He'd set them Jerries straight, by cracky.


Germany is less "socialist" then the US with regard to business, with less regulation in most areas, significantly lower corporate tax rates and exemption of a portion of dividends paid from individual income taxes. But why let facts get in the way of being a wiseass.
Proof?



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