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RE: Last week for predictions.... - 10/28/2010 12:33:40 PM   
popeye1250


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From: New Hampshire
Status: offline 		Ten in the Senate, 70 in the house.

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RE: Last week for predictions.... - 10/28/2010 2:21:13 PM   
willbeurdaddy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: popeye1250

Ten in the Senate, 70 in the house.


Must be a Dick Morris fan. to get 10 in the Senate both California and Washington have to go GOP....neither one looks that way.

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RE: Last week for predictions.... - 10/28/2010 2:23:15 PM   
mnottertail


Posts: 60698
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Status: offline 		I predict there will be a transient seatfiller election between several bad choices november second.

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RE: Last week for predictions.... - 10/28/2010 4:33:24 PM   
rulemylife


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Joined: 8/23/2004
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quote:

ORIGINAL: CruelNUnsual

Same as servant in the house, I'll be bold and say Fiorina eeks one out when the Prop 19 coalition is too stoned to go to the polls for +8 seats in the Senate. Dont know that I made any predictions here in July but if I did I was more confident in the Senate and less confident in the House at the time. There is almost no chance that the GOP doesnt pick up the House. If you think there is, sell all your stocks this week.


You mean because the Dow closed at over 11,000 today?

Damn those Democrats!





< Message edited by rulemylife -- 10/28/2010 4:34:35 PM >

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RE: Last week for predictions.... - 10/28/2010 4:43:51 PM   
samboct


Posts: 1817
Joined: 1/17/2007
Status: offline 		I'm hoping Pogo is right- but I think it's going to be closer to the Repubs picking up 30 seats in the house, but only 3 seats in the Senate.

Sam

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RE: Last week for predictions.... - 10/28/2010 6:25:02 PM   
Hillwilliam


Posts: 19394
Joined: 8/27/2008
Status: offline 		4 in the senate, 28 in the house pick up by the Republican party.
Would be more except for the tea party nutcases like Odonnell (Now watch hrr win LOL)

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RE: Last week for predictions.... - 10/29/2010 11:51:23 AM   
samboct


Posts: 1817
Joined: 1/17/2007
Status: offline 		You know- the democratic party activists who've been filling my mailbox of late have an interesting point. The claim by Jon Vogel is that all the polls are based on households with land lines. But there are 30% of residences where a cell phone is the only phone in the house. Vogel's suggestion is that the poll numbers are not counting cell phone users who happen to be younger and an important chunk of the electorate that came out and voted for a change- for Obama. If this is accurate, then the polls may indeed be showing a Republican margin that come election day- vanishes. Wouldn't that be a hoot?

Sam

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RE: Last week for predictions.... - 10/29/2010 4:07:34 PM   
popeye1250


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quote:

ORIGINAL: samboct

You know- the democratic party activists who've been filling my mailbox of late have an interesting point. The claim by Jon Vogel is that all the polls are based on households with land lines. But there are 30% of residences where a cell phone is the only phone in the house. Vogel's suggestion is that the poll numbers are not counting cell phone users who happen to be younger and an important chunk of the electorate that came out and voted for a change- for Obama. If this is accurate, then the polls may indeed be showing a Republican margin that come election day- vanishes. Wouldn't that be a hoot?

Sam


Sam, and now that they've seen the kind of "change" they'll be getting maybe they'll be staying home.
Seventy percent of Americans are against Obama's healthcare plan alone.
Then there's all the other things.

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RE: Last week for predictions.... - 10/29/2010 11:37:52 PM   
willbeurdaddy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: DomYngBlk

I am thinking Texas in 6 games


Looks like you know as much about baseball as you do about politics.

Oh, wait, I take that back.

At least you know Texas is playing, which overwhelms your political knowledge

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RE: Last week for predictions.... - 10/29/2010 11:38:59 PM   
willbeurdaddy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: samboct

You know- the democratic party activists who've been filling my mailbox of late have an interesting point. The claim by Jon Vogel is that all the polls are based on households with land lines. But there are 30% of residences where a cell phone is the only phone in the house. Vogel's suggestion is that the poll numbers are not counting cell phone users who happen to be younger and an important chunk of the electorate that came out and voted for a change- for Obama. If this is accurate, then the polls may indeed be showing a Republican margin that come election day- vanishes. Wouldn't that be a hoot?

Sam


Vogel is fos. Polls are adjusted to take that into account.

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to the barking of the dogfox,
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RE: Last week for predictions.... - 10/29/2010 11:52:08 PM   
tazzygirl


Posts: 37833
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Status: offline 		How do they adjust them to take into account all the people they arent speaking too?

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RE: Last week for predictions.... - 10/30/2010 12:13:44 AM   
tazzygirl


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quote:

ORIGINAL: willbeurdaddy


quote:

ORIGINAL: samboct

You know- the democratic party activists who've been filling my mailbox of late have an interesting point. The claim by Jon Vogel is that all the polls are based on households with land lines. But there are 30% of residences where a cell phone is the only phone in the house. Vogel's suggestion is that the poll numbers are not counting cell phone users who happen to be younger and an important chunk of the electorate that came out and voted for a change- for Obama. If this is accurate, then the polls may indeed be showing a Republican margin that come election day- vanishes. Wouldn't that be a hoot?

Sam


Vogel is fos. Polls are adjusted to take that into account.


The Pew Research must be fos as well.

http://host.madison.com/wsj/news/local/ask/article_2aac3caa-debe-11df-b7c2-001cc4c002e0.html

Q. Last week, the Pew Research Center said national polls that contacted people with only land-line phones tended to give a greater advantage to Republican candidates than polls that included cell phones. Did the St. Norbert College Survey Center poll last week that found U.S. Sen. Russ Feingold, a Democrat, about even with Republican Ron Johnson include cell phones?

A: No. The poll surveyed 402 likely voters, all land-line phone users, said David Wegge, St. Norbert College Survey Center director.

........

The Pew Center found cell-phone-only users are more likely to vote Democratic because the group includes a larger proportion of young people, the poor, Hispanics and African-Americans. Wegge called the issue valid but declined to speculate on whether the lack of cell phone users in the St. Norbert poll could have affected the results.


_____________________________

Telling me to take Midol wont help your butthurt.
RIP, my demon-child 5-16-11
Duchess of Dissent 1
Dont judge me because I sin differently than you.
If you want it sugar coated, dont ask me what i think! It would violate TOS.

(in reply to willbeurdaddy)
Profile   Post #: 32
RE: Last week for predictions.... - 10/30/2010 1:57:49 AM   
willbeurdaddy


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Joined: 4/8/2006
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quote:

ORIGINAL: tazzygirl

How do they adjust them to take into account all the people they arent speaking too?


By adjusting underweighted groups upward using the results of the polling of similar groups that they did capture. Its most obvious in Gallups low turnout and high turnout projections, where they do the same kinds of adjustments to polled voters to extrapolate to "what if the turnout is....". The mistake they make is they are using turnout weights that are skewed toward the 2008 election.

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RE: Last week for predictions.... - 10/30/2010 2:06:51 AM   
willbeurdaddy


Posts: 11894
Joined: 4/8/2006
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quote:

ORIGINAL: tazzygirl


quote:

ORIGINAL: willbeurdaddy


quote:

ORIGINAL: samboct

You know- the democratic party activists who've been filling my mailbox of late have an interesting point. The claim by Jon Vogel is that all the polls are based on households with land lines. But there are 30% of residences where a cell phone is the only phone in the house. Vogel's suggestion is that the poll numbers are not counting cell phone users who happen to be younger and an important chunk of the electorate that came out and voted for a change- for Obama. If this is accurate, then the polls may indeed be showing a Republican margin that come election day- vanishes. Wouldn't that be a hoot?

Sam


Vogel is fos. Polls are adjusted to take that into account.


The Pew Research must be fos as well.

http://host.madison.com/wsj/news/local/ask/article_2aac3caa-debe-11df-b7c2-001cc4c002e0.html

Q. Last week, the Pew Research Center said national polls that contacted people with only land-line phones tended to give a greater advantage to Republican candidates than polls that included cell phones. Did the St. Norbert College Survey Center poll last week that found U.S. Sen. Russ Feingold, a Democrat, about even with Republican Ron Johnson include cell phones?

A: No. The poll surveyed 402 likely voters, all land-line phone users, said David Wegge, St. Norbert College Survey Center director.

........

The Pew Center found cell-phone-only users are more likely to vote Democratic because the group includes a larger proportion of young people, the poor, Hispanics and African-Americans. Wegge called the issue valid but declined to speculate on whether the lack of cell phone users in the St. Norbert poll could have affected the results.



Nothing in your quote says that once the results are received they arent adjusted.

For example, from Rasmussen:

"After the calls are completed, the raw data is processed through a weighting program to insure that the sample reflects the overall population in terms of age, race, gender, political party, and other factors. The processing step is required because different segments of the population answer the phone in different ways."

All of the major polling firms do the same kinds of polling adjustments.

< Message edited by willbeurdaddy -- 10/30/2010 2:17:04 AM >

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RE: Last week for predictions.... - 10/30/2010 2:31:07 AM   
subrob1967


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Status: offline 		I predict that no matter who wins we get the SOS out of DC

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RE: Last week for predictions.... - 10/30/2010 8:58:35 AM   
truckinslave


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Joined: 6/16/2004
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quote:

You mean because the Dow closed at over 11,000 today?

The market runs on speculation.
In this case, the speculation driving up the market is that the Republicans will take the House Tuesday and end future job-and economy-killing Team 0bama0 policies.

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1. Islam and sharia are indivisible.
2. Sharia is barbaric, homophobic, violent, and inimical to the most basic Western values (including free speech and freedom of religion). (Yeah, I know: SEE: Irony 101).
ERGO: Islam has no place in America.

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RE: Last week for predictions.... - 10/30/2010 9:00:09 AM   
truckinslave


Posts: 3897
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Status: offline 		Vogel is wrong.
I have no landline, haven't for years. I get robocalls, including from a pollster.

_____________________________

1. Islam and sharia are indivisible.
2. Sharia is barbaric, homophobic, violent, and inimical to the most basic Western values (including free speech and freedom of religion). (Yeah, I know: SEE: Irony 101).
ERGO: Islam has no place in America.

(in reply to samboct)
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RE: Last week for predictions.... - 10/30/2010 9:02:08 AM   
mnottertail


Posts: 60698
Joined: 11/3/2004
Status: offline 		what was the speculation that rose it from 6400 plus on Obamas presidential win until the 11000 plus, cuz it didnt just go there from nowhere in the last couple months or so.

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RE: Last week for predictions.... - 10/30/2010 9:06:50 AM   
willbeurdaddy


Posts: 11894
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quote:

ORIGINAL: truckinslave

Vogel is wrong.
I have no landline, haven't for years. I get robocalls, including from a pollster.


The law on that is somewhat vague. Supposedly cell phones are not supposed to get robocalls because they can cause charges for the recipient. The problem is that the laws are generally couched in terms of "targeting", and since there is no way to distinguish between a cell phone number and land line, totally random dialing hits them and cant possibly be illegal. Rasmussen uses random dialing and certainly captures cell phones.

I get plenty of robocalls and text messages too, though not from a pollster yet.

_____________________________

Hear the lark
and harken
to the barking of the dogfox,
gone to ground.

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Profile   Post #: 39
RE: Last week for predictions.... - 10/30/2010 9:42:58 AM   
tazzygirl


Posts: 37833
Joined: 10/12/2007
Status: offline 		After the calls are completed, the raw data is processed through a weighting program to insure that the sample reflects the overall population in terms of age, race, gender, political party, and other factors. The processing step is required because different segments of the population answer the phone in different ways. For example, women answer the phone more than men, older people are home more and answer more than younger people, and rural residents typically answer the phone more frequently than urban residents.

The Company that does Rasmussens polling states this...

Pulse Opinion Research determines its partisan weighting targets through a dynamic weighting system that takes into account the state’s voting history, national trends, and recent polling in a particular state or geographic area.

They state nothing about weighting for cell phone use.

_____________________________

Telling me to take Midol wont help your butthurt.
RIP, my demon-child 5-16-11
Duchess of Dissent 1
Dont judge me because I sin differently than you.
If you want it sugar coated, dont ask me what i think! It would violate TOS.

(in reply to willbeurdaddy)
Profile   Post #: 40
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