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InvisibleBlack -> RE: A Warning to Republicans and Conservatives ... (11/14/2010 3:47:01 PM)
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I got a good chuckle out of that, particularly the graph that shows "no correlation".
I agree that it's way too early to call the 2012 election or to rule President Obama "unelectible". However, in my opinion, everything still hinges on two points (and two points only). The first is the economy. If it drastically imroves (no matter the reason), President Obama stands a good chance at re-election. The second is our many military actions overseas. These have been downplayed recently but could loom large in people's minds again. A big military disaster (a la the marine base bombing in Lebanon under Reagan or a "Blackhawk Down") and Obama would have major issues heading into an election. If we withdraw from Iraq and he's able to broker something that looks like a victory in Afghanistan in the next two years, then he might stand a great chance of getting another term.
The rest of this stuff - healthcare, cap-and-trade, education,whatever - are sideshow issues. If the economy recovers and his global policy is even moderately successful, they won't matter - and if unemployment is still at double digits and we have a bloody fiasco overseas - then nothing he does anywhere else will save him.
If nothing changes, and everything is "status quo" I suspect Obama will face major challenges in the Democratic primary. He may not get to run for a second term (as per LBJ) depending on who he's up against and what sort of backing they have. Howard Dean's name has been brought up on more than one occasion and I suspect that Hillary Clinton would love another go at the Oval Office as well.
If he makes it to the general election - if things are the way they are now - I'd suspect any reasonable Republican candidate would win. However, a lot can happen in two years, so who knows?
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