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RE: Ron Paul Taking a Lead... - 12/16/2010 10:53:59 AM

kinkbound

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Edwynn

We never hear of that little subcommittee with "monetary policy" in its title, which may have something to do with the Fed's charter that congress not interfere with policy directly, but congress can only change the mandate if they choose, which is currently the dual mandate concerning employment and inflation.

A regulatory and oversight role might be interesting, if that's what this entails, but if Paul wants actual policy change he'll have to get something through congress that effectively re-writes the existing congressional mandates.

This could be fun.

Yes, it could be quite interesting to watch unfold.

However, since Dr. Paul has brought much negative attention upon the Federal Reserve, and the FR is the key operative entity for the true powers-that-be in my opinion; I can't help but wonder if Paul is being set up to either take a fall, be discredited, or prevented from pursuing other interests.

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RE: Ron Paul Taking a Lead... - 12/16/2010 11:03:43 AM

kinkbound

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quote:

But Ron Paul should probably be right where he is [going]. You may assert that you know more than he, and not being inside your mind I have no idea if that's true or not. However I doubt any of the correspondents on this forum are in contention for the job. So even if you know more, who would be better, FROM THE POSSIBLE CANDIDATES for the position ?

Since I've never suggested I know more than Dr. Paul, I'd hazard a guess that you're either directing this towards the board in general, or Willbe.

While I don't agree with everything Dr. Paul stands for, I do agree that he seems to be the best choice for the position.

< Message edited by kinkbound -- 12/16/2010 11:23:06 AM >

(in reply to Termyn8or)

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RE: Ron Paul Taking a Lead... - 12/16/2010 11:22:27 AM

kinkbound

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quote:

Most people here know, but you are pretty new. Im a partner in a company that does Monte Carlo economic forecasting and its likely impact on the client company's sales, inventories, labor costs etc.

Algorithims are well outside my expertise, so please be patient.

How does your background relate to the various macroeconomic theories? Have you tried running the most widely known theories through your forecasting model? If so, what were the results?

If not, could you be more specific in terms of what you know that Dr. Paul does not know?

(in reply to willbeurdaddy)

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RE: Ron Paul Taking a Lead... - 12/16/2010 6:57:07 PM

Termyn8or

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But, the macronecenomic theories don't seem to be working well do they ? This could be change !

T

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RE: Ron Paul Taking a Lead... - 12/16/2010 7:54:40 PM

willbeurdaddy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: kinkbound

quote:

Most people here know, but you are pretty new. Im a partner in a company that does Monte Carlo economic forecasting and its likely impact on the client company's sales, inventories, labor costs etc.

Algorithims are well outside my expertise, so please be patient.

How does your background relate to the various macroeconomic theories? Have you tried running the most widely known theories through your forecasting model? If so, what were the results?

If not, could you be more specific in terms of what you know that Dr. Paul does not know?

Our simulations dont use "theories", they are strictly empirical and data driven, based on cross correlations of several hundred parameters.

Im not sure what youre asking by "what were the results"....the results present dozens of economic factors depending on what a particular client is interested in. The ultimate result can be recommendations on future manpower, optimal inventories, ROI on different lines of business etc etc etc.

The issue isnt what Ron Paul "knows" about the Fed, and I assume he has sufficient factual knowledge. The problem is that he sees the Fed through ideological filters based on Austrian economics and libertarianism. The Austrian school eschews real world data and is strictly theory based, and some of the underlying theories are so far out there that they are criticized across the political/economic spectrum, from Friedman to Krugman. Austrian economics often reads like PAHunk paranoia.

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Post #: 45

RE: Ron Paul Taking a Lead... - 12/17/2010 2:42:13 AM

Termyn8or

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Wilbeur, you could be the world's foremost economist. I am not being sarcastic. You don't use theory ? That can't be completely true because obviously you know the theories. Using the real world is better of course, but that makes most theories moot because we have never been in quite this situation [as a race] before. Never before have so many nations become interdependent in such ways as they are today.

As always the upper class strives to take advantage of the lower classes, that is not theory. In the global economy they have found even lower classes to exploit. Perhaps exploit is not a strong enough word, because when I go to work I like to be exploited. Use me, that is what I am here for, as long as you pay me. But what would be the rate ? But people who live in straw shacks will work for one tenth or less what we would. This has opened up opportunities abound. Abroad in fact.

As an isolationist state we would have no need for even currency exchange, but now it has become a big factor in everything, including especially those real world models. They say that those who refuse to learn from history are doomed to repeat it, and I believe that is true on many levels. However there is no history to teach in this particular situation. Or not much, so I guess that statement is not absolute.

We are still faced with the fact though, that we can only spend more money than we make for a limited time. Now I don't know all these fancy theories by heart and all that, but that is not required now. Except for inclusion into the process, you have as much chance of making it if you forget most of what you've learned and lop the letters off the end of your name. Things change so fast now that credential are losing their true value.

With Ron Paul we get old thinking, but then the old thinking might be the new thinking. You know Dr. Paul writes for the AFP every issue. Read it, he does make a hell of alot of sense. He's not a great speaker, he doesn't have that look. He is not in vogue. But if you really think about it, even if you are in a position to judge him, judge the rest of the possibilities.

I really must become familiar with the powers of the post, just what can he do ? He didn't mention the appointment in his last article, but he did write that he is totally opposed to raising the debt cieling. Are you in favor of raising it ?

T

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Post #: 46

RE: Ron Paul Taking a Lead... - 12/17/2010 6:12:18 AM

Musicmystery

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quote:

As an isolationist state we would have no need for even currency exchange, but now it has become a big factor in everything, including especially those real world models. They say that those who refuse to learn from history are doomed to repeat it, and I believe that is true on many levels. However there is no history to teach in this particular situation.

Sure there is--do the research. Mind Dynasty China is a good example to get you started--it ended Chinese Empire status for centuries.

Every isolationist state has suffered economically for it, and dearly. In the case of the U.S., that would mean 2 trillion in annual exports off the economy. Ya think that might effect jobs? Hurt businesses? Bring on a real recession?

Get out of your own theories and into some real world data.

(in reply to Termyn8or)

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RE: Ron Paul Taking a Lead... - 12/17/2010 6:27:52 AM

pahunkboy

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Yeah Term, we need to bring back merchanitilism, and the East India Company.

STOMP

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RE: Ron Paul Taking a Lead... - 12/17/2010 7:27:46 AM

Musicmystery

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And I obviously meant Ming, not Mind.

Oops.

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RE: Ron Paul Taking a Lead... - 12/17/2010 11:33:42 AM

willbeurdaddy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Termyn8or

Wilbeur, you could be the world's foremost economist. I am not being sarcastic. You don't use theory ? That can't be completely true because obviously you know the theories.
Using the real world is better of course, but that makes most theories moot because we have never been in quite this situation [as a race] before. Never before have so many nations become interdependent in such ways as they are today.

Even though Im not sure I buy your "not being sarcastic" disclaimer, I dont hold myself out as an economist. I minored in economics, but my credentials are in statistics and as a Fellow of the Society of Actuaries. I need to understand the prevailing economic theories in order to communicate with clients and respond to questions they may have on our models. We have 2 PhD and 1 Masters in economics on staff to do the heavy lifting.

You are correct that we have never been in quite this situation before, but that is true of virtually every situation. The economy has been globalized long enough to have statistically credible data though, and correlations in the most important parameters are consistent over time. They are updated in our model at least monthly and usually more often than that.

The methodolgy of Monte Carlo modeling is to run a hundred thousand simulations that determine the probability distribution of whatever parameters the client is interested in. Small variations in the underlying statistics do not materially affect the probability distribution of results. (And since no result has a zero probability we can never be wrong, lol)

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RE: Ron Paul Taking a Lead... - 12/17/2010 9:01:32 PM

kinkbound

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quote:

Our simulations dont use "theories", they are strictly empirical and data driven, based on cross correlations of several hundred parameters.

Im not sure what youre asking by "what were the results"....

Results only as they applied to running the main macroeconomic theories through your forecasting model, which you then explained that you don't run theories through your model.

quote:

the results present dozens of economic factors depending on what a particular client is interested in. The ultimate result can be recommendations on future manpower, optimal inventories, ROI on different lines of business etc etc etc.

Okay, I think I have a better grasp now. Thanks.

quote:

The issue isnt what Ron Paul "knows" about the Fed, and I assume he has sufficient factual knowledge. The problem is that he sees the Fed through ideological filters based on Austrian economics and libertarianism. The Austrian school eschews real world data and is strictly theory based, and some of the underlying theories are so far out there that they are criticized across the political/economic spectrum, from Friedman to Krugman. Austrian economics often reads like PAHunk paranoia.

In your opinion, is our current economic/monetary system sustainable?

(in reply to willbeurdaddy)

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RE: Ron Paul Taking a Lead... - 12/17/2010 11:54:01 PM

willbeurdaddy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: kinkbound

In your opinion, is our current economic/monetary system sustainable?

There are no systemic problems, just bad execution.

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to the barking of the dogfox,
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Post #: 52