Palin on the road Bachman on TV and headed to Iowa (Full Version)

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SilverMark -> Palin on the road Bachman on TV and headed to Iowa (5/31/2011 4:12:52 AM)

With "none of the above"(Gallup Poll) leading the Republican primary race with those all ready in, and the potential candidates. Can either one of these people make any difference?
I know those of us who are registered Democrats, wouldn't vote for either but do those who are registered Republican's see either of these 2 as viable candidates?
Edited due to posting without my glasses once again



thishereboi -> RE: Palin on the road Bachman on TV and headed to Iowa (5/31/2011 4:24:26 AM)

quote:

do those who are registered Republican's see either of these 2 as viable candidates?



nope, not in this lifetime.


I should add that it would be ammusing to see Sarah win, just to watch heads explode all over cm, but then we would have to put up with her for 4 years and it wouldn't be that ammusing.



Hillwilliam -> RE: Palin on the road Bachman on TV and headed to Iowa (5/31/2011 5:08:17 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: thishereboi

quote:

do those who are registered Republican's see either of these 2 as viable candidates?



nope, not in this lifetime.


I should add that it would be ammusing to see Sarah win, just to watch heads explode all over cm, but then we would have to put up with her for 4 years and it wouldn't be that ammusing.


Do you really think she could win boi? I know the american public is fickle as hell but unless some disaster happens, I dont see any of the present R folks winning in '12.



Moonhead -> RE: Palin on the road Bachman on TV and headed to Iowa (5/31/2011 5:52:19 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: thishereboi
I should add that it would be ammusing to see Sarah win, just to watch heads explode all over cm, but then we would have to put up with her for 4 years and it wouldn't be that ammusing.

The Londoners thought that about Boris Johnson a while ago. Even most of the Conservatives seem to have decided that was a mistake. Comedy candidates can prove dangerous, sadly.



Owner59 -> RE: Palin on the road Bachman on TV and headed to Iowa (5/31/2011 6:06:01 AM)

Cons thought that about bush,only real heads got exploded in real life.....ie real dead.

Was that ammusing,too?[8|]



DarkSteven -> RE: Palin on the road Bachman on TV and headed to Iowa (5/31/2011 6:24:41 AM)

Palin seems determined to run, in her own way.  She's eschewing the mainstream media and doing stuff like taking a bus tour, riding a motorcycle, etc.  Bachmann is doing a more conventional run.  They'll cannibalize each other's support.



willbeurdaddy -> RE: Palin on the road Bachman on TV and headed to Iowa (5/31/2011 7:27:02 AM)

No, neither has a chance for the GOP nomination, and the two of them plus Ron Paul are the only "contenders" that I can see losing to Obama without an economic miracle.



DomKen -> RE: Palin on the road Bachman on TV and headed to Iowa (5/31/2011 7:29:41 AM)

I took a look at what Palin's been doing and not doing and I'm confident she will never declare as a candidate. She has no pollster or campaign manager type on payroll. She's still getting paid by FNC which released Santorum and Gingrich long before they declared (if Palin runs FNC could have legal trouble at this point). While she has been in Iowa a lot she hasn't begun building any sort of campaign organization on the ground. She just rehired to low level aids she fired previously, these aides are of the confirm travel plans sort and are not serious GOP campaign operatives.



Hillwilliam -> RE: Palin on the road Bachman on TV and headed to Iowa (5/31/2011 8:27:08 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: willbeurdaddy

No, neither has a chance for the GOP nomination, and the two of them plus Ron Paul are the only "contenders" that I can see losing to Obama without an economic miracle.

The week of Jan 20, 2009, the DJIA was 8077.

As of 10:20 EDT it is 12505.

This is an increase of about 50% in less than 2.5 years. I wouldn't call it a miracle but I'd call it pretty damn good.



mnottertail -> RE: Palin on the road Bachman on TV and headed to Iowa (5/31/2011 8:27:49 AM)

Obama will only receive credit when it is going down.



Hillwilliam -> RE: Palin on the road Bachman on TV and headed to Iowa (5/31/2011 8:45:18 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: mnottertail

Obama will only receive credit when it is going down.

Face it. Whether he had anything to do with it or not, the head guy tends to get blame or credit.



willbeurdaddy -> RE: Palin on the road Bachman on TV and headed to Iowa (5/31/2011 8:51:46 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Hillwilliam


quote:

ORIGINAL: willbeurdaddy

No, neither has a chance for the GOP nomination, and the two of them plus Ron Paul are the only "contenders" that I can see losing to Obama without an economic miracle.

The week of Jan 20, 2009, the DJIA was 8077.

As of 10:20 EDT it is 12505.

This is an increase of about 50% in less than 2.5 years. I wouldn't call it a miracle but I'd call it pretty damn good.


You make the common mistake of thinking the stock market = the economy. It doesnt. You also make the common mistakes of not realizing that the drop in the stock market was a government induced panic that was totally unnecessary, and that the recovery in the stock market begain when it was clear that the Dems would be soundly defeated last November.

None of that bodes well for Obama.

And today's housing news is even worse for him. The economy cant recover as long as housing prices keep dropping and Washington facilitates the banks not recognizing those losses.



joether -> RE: Palin on the road Bachman on TV and headed to Iowa (5/31/2011 8:58:32 AM)

Sarah Palin is the ultimate self-absorbed type. Her actions and words are for one thing only: getting you and others to buy her books and speeching engagements. She doesn't care what happens to you people in any form. If the nukes were coming down, and she was already in the bunker, she'd shut the door the moment she got inside, regardless of who was behind. Does that sound like someone you would want to vote for?

I did get a chuckle that Rolling Thunder neither endorsed nor invited Palin to their event, to help support her cause. Her cause of course, being....her, herself, and only her.



mnottertail -> RE: Palin on the road Bachman on TV and headed to Iowa (5/31/2011 9:02:50 AM)

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/historical/djia1900.html

This would indicate that if there is any truth to trotskys nonsense that the public is very prescient and sees visions years ahead. 



Hillwilliam -> RE: Palin on the road Bachman on TV and headed to Iowa (5/31/2011 9:09:02 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: willbeurdaddy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Hillwilliam


quote:

ORIGINAL: willbeurdaddy

No, neither has a chance for the GOP nomination, and the two of them plus Ron Paul are the only "contenders" that I can see losing to Obama without an economic miracle.

The week of Jan 20, 2009, the DJIA was 8077.

As of 10:20 EDT it is 12505.

This is an increase of about 50% in less than 2.5 years. I wouldn't call it a miracle but I'd call it pretty damn good.


You make the common mistake of thinking the stock market = the economy. It doesnt. You also make the common mistakes of not realizing that the drop in the stock market was a government induced panic that was totally unnecessary, and that the recovery in the stock market begain when it was clear that the Dems would be soundly defeated last November.

None of that bodes well for Obama.

And today's housing news is even worse for him. The economy cant recover as long as housing prices keep dropping and Washington facilitates the banks not recognizing those losses.

The stock market isnt the economy, that is correct. it is one of several dozen factors driving it including "Consumer confidence"

When the market is rising, consumer confidence (rightly or wrongly) tends to rise too.
It is the most common indicator that joe six pack looks to to see how things are going.

Im gonna have to call bullshit, though, on your claim that the market started rising when it became clear that the Dems would lose last november.

DJIA week of Jan 20, 2009. 8077
DJIA week of Sept 30 (a month before the election) 10788.
25% increase BEFORE it became clear the D side was gonna take a bath.



joether -> RE: Palin on the road Bachman on TV and headed to Iowa (5/31/2011 9:11:37 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: mnottertail
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/historical/djia1900.html

This would indicate that if there is any truth to trotskys nonsense that the public is very prescient and sees visions years ahead. 


Yes, why dont you put that chart in perspective (and correctly) in that the shaded area between '31.25' and '62.50' is given considerably more area than '13,000' to '14,000'. The chart tries to state that 'a few thousand percentage points' of 1990-2011 isn't that big as 'a couple of points' back in the early 20th century. How many people gasp in fear if the DOW drops by 80 points in a given day? Compared to one to three thousand?




willbeurdaddy -> RE: Palin on the road Bachman on TV and headed to Iowa (5/31/2011 10:14:40 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Hillwilliam


quote:

ORIGINAL: willbeurdaddy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Hillwilliam


quote:

ORIGINAL: willbeurdaddy

No, neither has a chance for the GOP nomination, and the two of them plus Ron Paul are the only "contenders" that I can see losing to Obama without an economic miracle.

The week of Jan 20, 2009, the DJIA was 8077.

As of 10:20 EDT it is 12505.

This is an increase of about 50% in less than 2.5 years. I wouldn't call it a miracle but I'd call it pretty damn good.


You make the common mistake of thinking the stock market = the economy. It doesnt. You also make the common mistakes of not realizing that the drop in the stock market was a government induced panic that was totally unnecessary, and that the recovery in the stock market begain when it was clear that the Dems would be soundly defeated last November.

None of that bodes well for Obama.

And today's housing news is even worse for him. The economy cant recover as long as housing prices keep dropping and Washington facilitates the banks not recognizing those losses.

The stock market isnt the economy, that is correct. it is one of several dozen factors driving it including "Consumer confidence"

When the market is rising, consumer confidence (rightly or wrongly) tends to rise too.
It is the most common indicator that joe six pack looks to to see how things are going.

Im gonna have to call bullshit, though, on your claim that the market started rising when it became clear that the Dems would lose last november.

DJIA week of Jan 20, 2009. 8077
DJIA week of Sept 30 (a month before the election) 10788.
25% increase BEFORE it became clear the D side was gonna take a bath.


Are you kidding? The bloodbath in November was clear in July, possibly earlier.



mnottertail -> RE: Palin on the road Bachman on TV and headed to Iowa (5/31/2011 10:33:48 AM)

post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy.

And it isn't even non-causally anything but preposterous, one need only look at the historical and factual graphs.



joether -> RE: Palin on the road Bachman on TV and headed to Iowa (5/31/2011 10:41:53 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: mnottertail
post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy.

And it isn't even non-causally anything but preposterous, one need only look at the historical and factual graphs.


So....what happened in 1932 is more important on a 2011 investor's mind, than what happened in 2011? Your graph is what it is, promotes US History of the early 20th century rather than keep the lines of reference uniform in height and width.

Example 1

Example 2



mnottertail -> RE: Palin on the road Bachman on TV and headed to Iowa (5/31/2011 11:11:24 AM)

Im lost.  What arguement am I making for 1932?  What arguement are you making, that there is a causal effect for the stock market rising since obama was elected, and that causal effect is the republican house win that would have been futuristic to say the least at his inauguration.  Cuz otherwise, I ain't getting what I'm getting asked about.  The fact that its on a logarithmic scale is of no consequence. The numbers read the same on a linear scale. So an emphatic NO; whats doing in probably the last week to last month and next week to month is whats on an investors mind. 



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