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errantgeek -> RE: POLL: Obama 42%, any Republican 46% (6/29/2011 11:09:21 PM)
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quote:
ORIGINAL: TheHeretic
That's right, Erran. You could note that I quoted Julia above and agreed with her that the election was over a year away. I'm very much aware that individual polls are snapshots of a moment. I prefer the composite results, where the President currently holds a slim lead, and try to see the larger picture of the electorate.
If the President wants to win reelection, something needs to change. Maybe the economy, which is his biggest obstacle to that goal, maybe the way he frames the discussion. And if the numbers keep trending lower, they'll change it again.
Actually, I stated that in agreement. Early polling numbers are hardly representative, and personally I loathe the concept due to the potential for the bandwagon effect and the use of polling numbers on both sides to surreptitiously influence opinion. This is especially true this year when Obama's chances of re-election, I believe, will be primarily influenced by the quality of the Republican nominee. Though, I will grant with the political climate as it is and Obama's history as president, trying to keep the left mobile out of a desire to vote tactically is an extremely weak position in what may be a highly contentious election year if the Republicans somehow nominate a strong candidate who won't alienate undecideds and moderates straight out of the gate.
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