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SternSkipper -> RE: POLL: Obama 42%, any Republican 46% (6/30/2011 10:34:56 AM)
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quote:
I always get a kick out of polling data... people always glom onto any poll they feel will make their side appear to win...
Polling Data always works best for those PAYING FOR IT.
I love the assertion that Rasmussen is somehow above all that. Yeah, they formed a FOR PROFIT CORPORATION only to conduct polls PURELY in the public interest.
Here's an example of a guy who steadfastly defended Rasmussen's alleged integrity until he discovered seemingly engineered flaws in their process:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rasmussen_Reports
Nate Silver In 2010, Nate Silver of the New York Times blog FiveThirtyEight wrote the article “Is Rasmussen Reports biased?”, in which he mostly defended Rasmussen from allegations of bias. [22]. However, by later in the year, Rasmussen's polling results diverged notably from other mainstream pollsters, which Silver labeled a 'house effect.'[23]
He went on to explore other factors which may have explained the effect such as the use of a likely voter model,[24] and claimed that Rasmussen conducted its polls in a way that excluded the majority of the population from answering. [25] Silver also criticized Rasmussen for often only polling races months before the election, which prevented them from having polls just before the election which could be assessed for accuracy. In response, he wrote that he was “looking appropriate ways to punish pollsters” like Rasmussen in his pollster rating models who don’t poll in the final days before an election. [26] After Election night that year, Silver concluded that Rasmussen's polls were the least accurate of the major pollsters in 2010, having an average error of 5.8 points and a pro-Republican bias of 3.9 points according to Silver's model. [27] He singled out as an example the Hawaii Senate Race, which Rasmussen showed the incumbent 13 points ahead, where he in actuality won by 53[28] - a difference of 40 points, or "the largest error ever recorded in a general election in FiveThirtyEight’s database, which includes all polls conducted since 1998."[27]
And here's Quinnipiac criticizing their data in the Wisconsin elections as reported in the NYT:
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/04/rasmussen-polls-were-biased-and-inaccurate-quinnipiac-surveyusa-performed-strongly/
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