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POLL: Obama 42%, any Republican 46% - 6/29/2011 1:58:06 PM

Sanity

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quote:

Election 2012: Generic Presidential Ballot

Generic Republican Candidate 46%, Obama 42%

A generic Republican candidate now holds a four-point lead over President Obama in a hypothetical 2012 election matchup. It's the fifth week in a row that the GOP candidate has been ahead and the widest gap between the candidates to date. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds a generic Republican candidate earns support from 46% of Likely U.S. Voters, while the president picks up 42% of the vote. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and nine percent (9%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
...

Republicans also hold a seven-point lead over Democrats on the Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending Sunday, June 26. Republicans have led on this ballot every week since June 2009.

Full article here

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RE: POLL: Obama 42%, any Republican 46% - 6/29/2011 2:03:08 PM

tazzygirl

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LOL

Rassmussen reports Obama would lose to a generic republican candidate.

Please, bring this generic one forward, because whats in that pack now wont win.

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RE: POLL: Obama 42%, any Republican 46% - 6/29/2011 2:03:15 PM

SilverMark

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One day newer than yours

...always like to be helpfullike that

General Election: Romney vs. Obama

McClatchy/Marist

Obama 46, Romney 42

Obama +4

General Election: Bachmann vs. Obama

McClatchy/Marist

Obama 49, Bachmann 37

Obama +12

General Election: Pawlenty vs. Obama

McClatchy/Marist

Obama 47, Pawlenty 33

Obama +14

General Election: Palin vs. Obama

McClatchy/Marist

Obama 56, Palin 30

Obama +26

General Election: Perry vs. Obama

McClatchy/Marist

Obama 48, Perry 39

Obama +9
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

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RE: POLL: Obama 42%, any Republican 46% - 6/29/2011 2:04:54 PM

mnottertail

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Yup, rassmussen indicates in every poll what will not happen. They are consistant like that.

So, Obama is at 46% by their poll the way they goof the numbers, and if all the chaff ran to the end they would draw in total 42%.

< Message edited by mnottertail -- 6/29/2011 2:05:49 PM >

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RE: POLL: Obama 42%, any Republican 46% - 6/29/2011 2:07:19 PM

willbeurdaddy

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Registered voters, not likely voters, which always favors the Democrat side. Also from the same poll you neglected to mention his dismal ratings issue by issue.

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RE: POLL: Obama 42%, any Republican 46% - 6/29/2011 2:17:04 PM

SilverMark

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quote:

ORIGINAL: willbeurdaddy

Registered voters, not likely voters, which always favors the Democrat side. Also from the same poll you neglected to mention his dismal ratings issue by issue.

Sorry Wil, wasn't the topic at hand

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RE: POLL: Obama 42%, any Republican 46% - 6/29/2011 2:19:11 PM

willbeurdaddy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: SilverMark

quote:

ORIGINAL: willbeurdaddy

Registered voters, not likely voters, which always favors the Democrat side. Also from the same poll you neglected to mention his dismal ratings issue by issue.

Sorry Wil, wasn't the topic at hand

Registered vs likely is

thats why Rasmussen's polls are the closest to actual voting results.

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RE: POLL: Obama 42%, any Republican 46% - 6/29/2011 7:14:36 PM

pahunkboy

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Does it really matter?

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RE: POLL: Obama 42%, any Republican 46% - 6/29/2011 9:20:31 PM

TheHeretic

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Have you seen this one, Sanity?

Jewish Dems losing faith in Obama

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RE: POLL: Obama 42%, any Republican 46% - 6/29/2011 9:26:04 PM

DomKen

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quote:

ORIGINAL: willbeurdaddy

quote:

ORIGINAL: SilverMark

quote:

ORIGINAL: willbeurdaddy

Registered voters, not likely voters, which always favors the Democrat side. Also from the same poll you neglected to mention his dismal ratings issue by issue.

Sorry Wil, wasn't the topic at hand

Registered vs likely is thats why Rasmussen's polls are the closest to actual voting results.

2010 Hawaii Senate race
Rasmussen Inouye 53% Cavasso 40%
PPP Inouye 65% Cavasso 29%
Actual result Inouye 75% Cavasso 22%

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RE: POLL: Obama 42%, any Republican 46% - 6/29/2011 9:32:29 PM

juliaoceania

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fast reply

I always get a kick out of polling data... people always glom onto any poll they feel will make their side appear to win...

The election is over a year away

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RE: POLL: Obama 42%, any Republican 46% - 6/29/2011 9:40:25 PM

TheHeretic

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quote:

ORIGINAL: juliaoceania
The election is over a year away

Yep. The polls are useful for watching trends and guaging mood though. Buyer's remorse is in the air, all over.

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RE: POLL: Obama 42%, any Republican 46% - 6/29/2011 9:42:23 PM

ThatDamnedPanda

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Oh, no, this is horrible! With the election coming up next week and all that, Obama's a dead duck!!

Oh. Wait. The election's not for a year and a half?

Well, then what the fuck are we even talking about, for christ's sake?

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RE: POLL: Obama 42%, any Republican 46% - 6/29/2011 9:51:14 PM

TheHeretic

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quote:

ORIGINAL: ThatDamnedPanda

Oh. Wait. The election's not for a year and a half?

Well, then what the fuck are we even talking about, for christ's sake?

The election is 16 months out, the Iowa Caucus is in 7, and everybody who wants the job is out looking for money and support now, Panda.

Sorry, dude. The season is underway.

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RE: POLL: Obama 42%, any Republican 46% - 6/29/2011 10:12:04 PM

errantgeek

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quote:

ORIGINAL: TheHeretic

The election is 16 months out, the Iowa Caucus is in 7, and everybody who wants the job is out looking for money and support now, Panda.

Sorry, dude. The season is underway.

Well, time to whip out the internet time machine I suppose. Thirty very intimate seconds with Google later...

Oh yeah, super-early polling results are always so representative of outcomes.

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RE: POLL: Obama 42%, any Republican 46% - 6/29/2011 10:38:36 PM

TheHeretic

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That's right, Erran. You could note that I quoted Julia above and agreed with her that the election was over a year away. I'm very much aware that individual polls are snapshots of a moment. I prefer the composite results, where the President currently holds a slim lead, and try to see the larger picture of the electorate.

If the President wants to win reelection, something needs to change. Maybe the economy, which is his biggest obstacle to that goal, maybe the way he frames the discussion. And if the numbers keep trending lower, they'll change it again.

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RE: POLL: Obama 42%, any Republican 46% - 6/29/2011 11:09:21 PM

errantgeek

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quote:

ORIGINAL: TheHeretic

That's right, Erran. You could note that I quoted Julia above and agreed with her that the election was over a year away. I'm very much aware that individual polls are snapshots of a moment. I prefer the composite results, where the President currently holds a slim lead, and try to see the larger picture of the electorate.

If the President wants to win reelection, something needs to change. Maybe the economy, which is his biggest obstacle to that goal, maybe the way he frames the discussion. And if the numbers keep trending lower, they'll change it again.

Actually, I stated that in agreement. Early polling numbers are hardly representative, and personally I loathe the concept due to the potential for the bandwagon effect and the use of polling numbers on both sides to surreptitiously influence opinion. This is especially true this year when Obama's chances of re-election, I believe, will be primarily influenced by the quality of the Republican nominee. Though, I will grant with the political climate as it is and Obama's history as president, trying to keep the left mobile out of a desire to vote tactically is an extremely weak position in what may be a highly contentious election year if the Republicans somehow nominate a strong candidate who won't alienate undecideds and moderates straight out of the gate.

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RE: POLL: Obama 42%, any Republican 46% - 6/29/2011 11:43:18 PM

Sanity

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Yeah, I read that article and it kind of blew my mind. The "heated argument" part vindicated some of the thoughts that have been swirling around in my head questioning how in the hell can the Dems possibly hold the Jewish vote this time around.

Combine that article with this one:

GETTING NERVOUS

And this one

Campaign signals fundraising fail...

And factor in how the administration is alienating the business community, and so much of its base, and add the trajectory of things generally (the cough economy cough) ...

And the implications for 2012 are absolutely incredible.

Not a sure thing, but this election cycle could be stunning

quote:

ORIGINAL: TheHeretic

Have you seen this one, Sanity?

Jewish Dems losing faith in Obama

And things are looking interesting.

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RE: POLL: Obama 42%, any Republican 46% - 6/29/2011 11:55:57 PM

SternSkipper

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quote:

Rassmussen reports Obama would lose to a generic republican candidate.
Please, bring this generic one forward, because whats in that pack now wont win.

Now Tazzy, Scott Rassmussen is the most independent pollster to ever have worked for the GOP.

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RE: POLL: Obama 42%, any Republican 46% - 6/29/2011 11:59:38 PM

tazzygirl

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lol thank you for correcting me, Skipper! You are very, very, very correct!

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