RE: Warming ocean could melt ice faster than thought (Full Version)

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Hippiekinkster -> RE: Warming ocean could melt ice faster than thought (7/4/2011 10:40:03 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: MrRodgers


quote:

ORIGINAL: FirmhandKY

quote:

ORIGINAL: SternSkipper
You're welcome to come to gloucester and I'll be happy to show you the 200 year old cottages that were on dry ground year around 15 years ago when I moved here.... They are now paying the big bucks to the neighborhood up on blocks now.

Anecdotal and not evidence.

Firm


Anecdotal is evidence. Just like the lake in Canada that remained thawed 3 times in a century, now remains thawed 18 times in 30 years or the pine trees on the east coast that are dying from salt water. All I need is a calender and a ruler to determine that the planet is warming and the sea is rising.

Uh-huh.
"Bolivian Doctor cures Cancer by injecting patients with goat urine Ayahuasca!"

Lupe J: "Si! He cure me! I no have the hallucination!"

Bizarro Journal Of Bush Medicine

Dude, you need to stick with your whackjob economic theories, like the ones you used to post on B.com.



Real0ne -> RE: Warming ocean could melt ice faster than thought (7/5/2011 1:07:58 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: masternoname

I want to know how much money they had to spend to come to the conclusion that warm water melts ice.


ah the ridiculously wealthy bastards on the shorelines want the public to help pay if their buildings sink LOL

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EegRh8Z4H-o



FirmhandKY -> RE: Warming ocean could melt ice faster than thought (7/5/2011 3:55:54 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: SternSkipper

quote:

Anecdotal and not evidence.


Okay ... well there is 'anecdotal' happening up and down the east coast.
And the folks from the Woods Hole Institute (big 'anecdoatal' university that has an IMPECCABLE reputation for the 'anecdotal'), not to mention NOAA which has a HUGE presence in my town, are all measuring the same rock I and other fishermen observe anecdotal changes at.
  And NOAA has monitoring equipment carefully placed on rust island where the cottages I was speaking of reside. Want me to let em know they can pull up stakes because a guy in Ky thinks they're clueless? [:D]

The sea levels are rising in the Atlantic and it's anything but anecdotal. Course to the extent that I am not employed as an Oceanographer, and got my science degree in another field. So you can feel free to call what I say 'anecdotal'.

I'm often amazed at how often people will claim scientific expertise, but then simply throw away the concepts of science when it doesn't fit into their belief structure.

Not sure you fall into that category yet, stern, but you seem to be heading there.

As far as the "rising ocean" level along where you live (Massachusetts?), does the concept of "post-glacial rebound" (sometimes now called "glacial isostatic adjustment" to take into account places where the rebound is negative) mean anything to you?  Perhaps, the problem is more about how the earth is sinking, than it is about how the sea is rising, for your friends along the coast?

Your powers of reasoning are also somewhat suspect, as you seem to assume that I live in Kentucky. And then you seem to wish to reach conclusions based on your stereo-typical beliefs about "Kain-tuck-ians". Perhaps the "KY" in my screen-named fooled you?

Assumptions often make fools of us, it seems.

Firm



Kirata -> RE: Warming ocean could melt ice faster than thought (7/5/2011 4:44:59 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: FirmhandKY

Perhaps the "KY" in my screen-named fooled you?

I thought that too. Fuck, please don't tell me it has to do with jelly. [:D]

K.



Hillwilliam -> RE: Warming ocean could melt ice faster than thought (7/5/2011 5:11:49 AM)

Sea level changes courtesy of NOAA.

Not greenpeace, not "friends of science"

http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends.shtml

You can see that along the vast majority of the coastline, it is rising.



FirmhandKY -> RE: Warming ocean could melt ice faster than thought (7/5/2011 10:16:33 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Hillwilliam

Sea level changes courtesy of NOAA.

Not greenpeace, not "friends of science"

http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends.shtml

You can see that along the vast majority of the coastline, it is rising.

Are you also aware that sealevels are at some of the lowest that they have been for the past several hundreds of millions of years?

Firm



popeye1250 -> RE: Warming ocean could melt ice faster than thought (7/5/2011 10:19:09 AM)

There's that word again, "could."
The people who *believe* in UFO's are the ones who see them.



FirmhandKY -> RE: Warming ocean could melt ice faster than thought (7/5/2011 10:19:43 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Kirata


quote:

ORIGINAL: FirmhandKY

Perhaps the "KY" in my screen-named fooled you?

I thought that too. Fuck, please don't tell me it has to do with jelly. [:D]


hee ... no, not jelly.

I was born and raised in Kentucky, along the Tennessee border, but left for many years.  I returned to raise a family, but currently live in an Atlanta suburb, in Fulton County.

Since my profile is hidden, not many know that, so it's always funny to watch the bigots start talking about stupid hill-billies and shit when they can't support their arguments any other way.

Firm



thishereboi -> RE: Warming ocean could melt ice faster than thought (7/5/2011 10:40:07 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: FirmhandKY

quote:

ORIGINAL: Owner59

If I said you could die from drinking that liquid<points to cool-aid cup>,would you see "could" so lackadaisically?

Only a tard would think that way.

But by the time the seas are flooding every port town and city on the globe,all of today`s tards would be gone.

Right Firm?

I'll ask you again, Owner ... what, exactly, is a "tard"?

Firm



You don't really expect an answer to that, do you?



slvemike4u -> RE: Warming ocean could melt ice faster than thought (7/5/2011 10:42:11 AM)

Firm,while I am not defending the hicks as idiots line....all of that would still apply to you,no matter where you currently reside.....I mean what the fuck just cause a hillbilly moves to the big city....he doesn't all of a sudden get edumacated [:D]



FirmhandKY -> RE: Warming ocean could melt ice faster than thought (7/5/2011 10:43:12 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: thishereboi

You don't really expect an answer to that, do you?

Well, I kinda like Owner, regardless of his political leanings, and I think he might eventually give me enough in order to point out the problem with his reasoning, or something similar.

Firm



FirmhandKY -> RE: Warming ocean could melt ice faster than thought (7/5/2011 10:47:16 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: slvemike4u

Firm,while I am not defending the hicks as idiots line....all of that would still apply to you,no matter where you currently reside.....I mean what the fuck just cause a hillbilly moves to the big city....he doesn't all of a sudden get edumacated [:D]

Point, mike.

However, in my case, I eventually did get edumacated.

It's the stereotype of the hill-billy which shows both the bigotry and ignorance of some people, that I like to point out, though.

I can use "hill-billy" talk, Southern, and a couple of other accents and mannerisms, when it suits me, as well as speak very good standard English, as well as fluently speak a foreign language, and have studied a couple of more.  Occasionally, I'll use such speech and mannerisms to allow a bigot to fall into a trap of their own making. 

It really separates them out of the herd, pretty quickly.

Firm



Hillwilliam -> RE: Warming ocean could melt ice faster than thought (7/5/2011 11:58:24 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: FirmhandKY

quote:

ORIGINAL: Hillwilliam

Sea level changes courtesy of NOAA.

Not greenpeace, not "friends of science"

http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends.shtml

You can see that along the vast majority of the coastline, it is rising.

Are you also aware that sealevels are at some of the lowest that they have been for the past several hundreds of millions of years?

Firm



The data I'm posting is for the last hundred or so years.  As far as hundreds of millions, you have to take into account the continents were in different positions, uplift, erosion of mountain ranges, continental drift, etc.
It is theorized that people finding seashells on mountaintops (continental uplift) is one of the reasons that most cultures have a legend of a "great flood" in the past.
There are also archaeological sites under over 100' of water due to sea level rise since the last ice age.

As for "mountain folk" being educated.  Marine science was one of My 2 majors.  I got sick of miami about 16 years ago and moved to the mountains.

Here is some data http://www.cmar.csiro.au/sealevel/sl_hist_intro.html

for the last 140,000 years.  The graph about half way down would indicate that we are about tied for the maximum over that period.

Once again, I didn't use greenpeace or huffpo or fox news as I feel they are biased in different directions.



FirmhandKY -> RE: Warming ocean could melt ice faster than thought (7/5/2011 1:02:13 PM)

HillWilliam,

I'm not arguing that there isn't any sea level rise.  I'm arguing against sternskippers belief that a "couple of feet of sea level rise" in the particular instance he cited has much to do with the current global warming/climate change, AGW etc, arguments.

In other words, his example was more about the lowering of the ground level, than it was the rising of the sea levels.

Firm



SternSkipper -> RE: Warming ocean could melt ice faster than thought (7/5/2011 2:09:45 PM)

quote:

Your powers of reasoning are also somewhat suspect, as you seem to assume that I live in Kentucky. And then you seem to wish to reach conclusions based on your stereo-typical beliefs about "Kain-tuck-ians". Perhaps the "KY" in my screen-named fooled you?


My only fixed BELIEF about Kentucky is that it's inland. Now do you understand why I thought a) Your use of a cartoon shark was nonsense. b)Inland people aren't likely to have a knowledge or vested interest in anything happening in Atlantic coastal regions in any great numbers.
That's what I BELIEVE about Kentucky relative to anything that has gone on between us.


So my bad about the Kentucky guess ... lots of people use a state or a year of birth when they use a somewhat generic sounding name and I REASONABLY presumed that FIRMHAND just might be in wide or certainly repeated use. So I apologize for underestimating how cryptic you were.[:)] My reasoning powers are doing fine though, thank you.

quote:

As far as the "rising ocean" level along where you live (Massachusetts?), does the concept of "post-glacial rebound" (sometimes now called "glacial isostatic adjustment" to take into account places where the rebound is negative) mean anything to you?  Perhaps, the problem is more about how the earth is sinking, than it is about how the sea is rising, for your friends along the coast?


I am familiar with the THEORY. What the NOAA guys said about it 5 years ago when it was in the papers here when the local journalist spoiling to discredit NOAA every chance he gets, was showing up at NOAA FIshing Community Inteface Meetingsand demanding the NOAA Scientists admit isostatic adjustment was "the real reason" (It's complicated, NOAA also has a feud going on with the commercial fishing culture here... so there's a lot of bad blood on the fisherman side, some justified, some not). I believe what he was told was that 'while it accounts for some small portion in the rise of sea levels, it happens at an exponentially slower rate than the changes being seen. And he also mentioned that the rising seas were occurring around the world whereas geologic recession is much more regional. Now I'm paraphrasing from memory, but apart from the precise wording, I am pretty much certain that's what was said. Again, I has a bachelor of science, however it's not in Oceanography, though I have an affinity for it being a native Rhode Islander and having spent all but two years of my life on the water, professionally and recreationally. If you do have a serious question, my cousin Rick is a fellow with tenure at the URI Sea Grant College and I'll send him an email and most likely get a more authoritative answer.

quote:

Not sure you fall into that category yet, stern, but you seem to be heading there.


And I'm not sure I care if you make an errant judgement of someone who's a least providing reasonable cites to most of the technical and scientific posts he publishes.

So how about you come clean and tell us where 'in a general sense', so we at least know you aren't some know-it-all from death valley. And what's your background that makes you able to judge what expertise others have. Or do you just like pulling people's chains?
For my own part, I will QUITE FREELY admit that a fair amount  of my posts are merely to counter balance some of the wing nuts here. And I'm neither ashamed of that or as abominably bad at it as they are.
  But I certainly won't post on anything scientific or technical unless I am certain I am either well read on the topic or expert. On this topic I will say I am well read with a TON of what you would refer to as anecdotal experience.






Hillwilliam -> RE: Warming ocean could melt ice faster than thought (7/5/2011 2:23:18 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: FirmhandKY

HillWilliam,

I'm not arguing that there isn't any sea level rise.  I'm arguing against sternskippers belief that a "couple of feet of sea level rise" in the particular instance he cited has much to do with the current global warming/climate change, AGW etc, arguments.

In other words, his example was more about the lowering of the ground level, than it was the rising of the sea levels.

Firm



Agreed on that.  there's only a couple of places where NOAA is predicting a couple of feet/century.  The problem is that it's places that can least afford it like New Orleans (WTF posessed the French to put a damn town there anyways) and miami (good riddance).

Predicting future trends is a VERY damn inexact science as well.  The problem is by the time you know things are going south, you're in deep shit already and now the public is screaming "why didn't you warn us?".

It's kinda like my earlier analogy of starting down a mountain on a bicycle with brakes that may or may not work.  By the time you find out that something is definitely wrong, you're in deep shit and it's too late to do anything about it.



FirmhandKY -> RE: Warming ocean could melt ice faster than thought (7/5/2011 3:13:52 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: SternSkipper

yada, yada, yada ...

OK.


quote:

ORIGINAL: SternSkipper

And I'm not sure I care if you make an errant judgement of someone who's a least providing reasonable cites to most of the technical and scientific posts he publishes.
A reasonably accurate "fact", even without cites is fine.  A reasonably accurate "fact" used in a way that intentionally misleads is a lie.


quote:

ORIGINAL: SternSkipper

So how about you come clean and tell us where 'in a general sense', so we at least know you aren't some know-it-all from death valley. And what's your background that makes you able to judge what expertise others have. Or do you just like pulling people's chains?

I occasionally do pull someone's chain.  Generally when they have let hyperbole or partisanship get the better of them, in their claims.

I claim no special expertise, other than knowing what science actually is, and how it's suppose to work, and a lot of study and observation on society and human nature.

I find, often times, that "Authority" usually equals "Credentialed", but "Credentialed" doesn't necessarily mean "non-partisan and accurate".  It's a human thing.

quote:

ORIGINAL: SternSkipper

For my own part, I will QUITE FREELY admit that a fair amount  of my posts are merely to counter balance some of the wing nuts here. And I'm neither ashamed of that or as abominably bad at it as they are.

Perhaps you see it one way: that "the right" is all wrong and posts a bunch of BS.  But, there seems to be another viewpoint that says "the left" is all wrong and posts a bunch of BS.  I think the truth is more likely to lie somewhere in-between, or outside the domain of left-right thinking at all.


quote:

ORIGINAL: SternSkipper

But I certainly won't post on anything scientific or technical unless I am certain I am either well read on the topic or expert. On this topic I will say I am well read with a TON of what you would refer to as anecdotal experience.
Two points:

1. I wouldn't dream, nor request that you don't post something scientific or technical, even outside your area of expertise.  I think that is giving up too much "common sense" to "Credentialed" but not necessarily "smart" people, and is a fallacy.  Credentials should be considered as a factor, certainly, but not as the only factor. 

And sometimes not even the most important factor.

2. Anecdotal evidence is still anecdotal, and not really evidence at all in a scientific sense.

Firm



SternSkipper -> RE: Warming ocean could melt ice faster than thought (7/5/2011 3:15:22 PM)

quote:

Agreed on that. there's only a couple of places where NOAA is predicting a couple of feet/century. The problem is that it's places that can least afford it like New Orleans (WTF posessed the French to put a damn town there anyways) and miami (good riddance).


Pay careful attention to what I am saying here man. As I said in my previous post, the isostatic adjustment effect is as I have heard the NOAA folks state is a minor factor in our region and I would be you're right concerning florida and nola because they are MUCH softer coasts.
   Up here it exists, but to a much more miniscule extent. And if you use the tool you put forth yourself the increase for the atlantic region, which is the only one I care to monitor, you can clearly see the trending.
   Also, this shit of posters trying to tie the anthropogenic argument around my neck is just that. What I said is that I believe from all I have read and been told by the experts I have access to (which is a considerable resource in my town, state and region), and have observed first hand that there is a correlation between Ocean Current Changes (particularly the directional aspects) and global warming. I didn't touch the cause for cause for global warming. NOT ONCE. Course, if you are reading the thread, you know who the individuals trying to steer the discussion that way. And now, it's all about who is an expert. Which is now pretty damned clear as to who isn't anyway.




SternSkipper -> RE: Warming ocean could melt ice faster than thought (7/5/2011 3:55:55 PM)

quote:

A reasonably accurate "fact", even without cites is fine. A reasonably accurate "fact" used in a way that intentionally misleads is a lie.


Given your hunger to tie me to the _cause_ of global warming when I am actually addressing is PRECISELY the latter, this is what? a confession. Not necessary. I already pointed that out in my last post.


quote:

I occasionally do pull someone's chain.  Generally when they have let hyperbole or partisanship get the better of them, in their claims.

I claim no special expertise, other than knowing what science actually is, and how it's suppose to work, and a lot of study and observation on society and human nature.

I find, often times, that "Authority" usually equals "Credentialed", but "Credentialed" doesn't necessarily mean "non-partisan and accurate".  It's a human thing.


Okay, no need to now cause I am starting to suspect that you are in fact Bill Cosby... cause this roundly worded response to what I said, with all it's "non-partisan" rope-a-dope if what he always referred to as 'Flizzem Flazzem'.
At this point I'm real clear of credentials.
So I guess inherent in the avoidance of the real question is that Kentucky was probably right in the first place. Can't really surmise anything to the contrary.
   
quote:

Perhaps you see it one way: that "the right" is all wrong and posts a bunch of BS.  But, there seems to be another viewpoint that says "the left" is all wrong and posts a bunch of BS.  I think the truth is more likely to lie somewhere in-between, or outside the domain of left-right thinking at all.


Perhaps you need the CRUTCH of political ideology my point was that this discussion ISN'T one of those instances. So why don't you stay in the debate instead of grasping for the subterfuge straw?

quote:

Two points:

1. I wouldn't dream, nor request that you don't post something scientific or technical, even outside your area of expertise.  I think that is giving up too much "common sense" to "Credentialed" but not necessarily "smart" people, and is a fallacy.  Credentials should be considered as a factor, certainly, but not as the only factor.
 

I'm sorry, did you wrongly assume I was addressing solely this conversation or any standard YOU were setting forth? Incorrect. I was telling you about my standard in general. And we apparently differ greatly in our standard for what a good technical/scientific post is written.
  Percentage wise though your belief about credentials is probably true ... In the MINORITY of cases.

quote:


2. Anecdotal evidence is still anecdotal, and not really evidence at all in a scientific sense.
 
Also wrong - anecdotal evidence submitted by those with an approriate knowledge of background may be included in the theoretic model, it's just not really appropriate to base your conclusions on it without corroboration. Read up on folks like Sir Issac Newton before you go spreading THAT manure, 

And FTR imperical evidence by way of cites WAS provided. BY ME. So far I've heard a buzzword or two out of you.

Look... I have to go down the street and put in screens for an old lady who's got no kids or grand kids to do anything for her and I don't want to be doing it in the dark.
I think that unless you can go back to the previous post and provide some of the background you were asked for, this debate is kind of over. Cause all you're doing is chain pulling. And to be honest, not very creatively.





FirmhandKY -> RE: Warming ocean could melt ice faster than thought (7/5/2011 8:53:17 PM)

ahh, geez, stern ... you posted in an AGW thread, claim massive sea level rise in support, and when you get called on the facts write more shit in a single post than I could write in a week .... or even even interested in reading.

Give it up man, and just admit you screwed the pooch, and it's over. [;)]

Firm



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