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RE: S&P downgrades U.S. credit rating for first time - 8/7/2011 10:54:00 AM   
FirmhandKY


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quote:

ORIGINAL: MasterJaguar01

Wow. An angry pseudo-intellectual, raving anti-semite?

I'll admit I don't know the history here.

As for me, on these boards, I will attack an argument if I feel it is flawed, and/or completely devoid of common sense or logic, but I will never attack an individual. I do not know any poster here personally, and would never make any judgments (at least publicly) about an individual, solely because I vehemently disagree with a statement he or she made on here.

Once again, in this case I do not know the history.

I try to not be too personally offensive most of the time, but sometimes Game Theory calls for a tit-for-tat strategy.

Tweak has potential. But growth usually comes with some pain.

Firm


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Profile   Post #: 181
RE: S&P downgrades U.S. credit rating for first time - 8/7/2011 10:57:38 AM   
MasterJaguar01


Posts: 2346
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quote:

ORIGINAL: lockedaway

Wow...maybe I missed it, but you seem to have ignored this piece of reasoning for the downgrade and it seems pretty important: 

We lowered our long-term rating on the U.S. because we believe that the
prolonged controversy over raising the statutory debt ceiling and the related
fiscal policy debate indicate that further near-term progress containing the
growth in public spending, especially on entitlements, or on reaching an
agreement on raising revenues is less likely than we previously assumed and
will remain a contentious and fitful process. We also believe that the fiscal
consolidation plan that Congress and the Administration agreed to this week
falls short of the amount that we believe is necessary to stabilize the
general government debt burden by the middle of the decade.
Our lowering of the rating was prompted by our view on the rising public
debt burden and our perception of greater policymaking uncertainty, consistent
with our criteria (see "Sovereign Government Rating Methodology and Assumptions
," June 30, 2011, especially Paragraphs 36-41).

I think it is only fair that you focus your well reasoned analysis on the above as well.  Now...you say it was an important piece of legislation.  I say it was a feckless waste of toilet paper.  We have "CUT" nothing.  If you think I am wrong, please tell me what was specifically "CUT" and let's define "CUT" as not a reduction in the amount of funding that will still exceed this years funding....no....let's define "CUT" as an amount of funding that is less than the funding the program received this year or a total elimination of that program.  So....please, set forth what, exactly, has been "CUT".  Because my understanding is that our debt will be 20 trillion or more by 2017 or sooner.



Was that to me? I will just say that I agree with you 100%. I don't see any REAL cuts in spending emanating from the "debt reduction" bill. It is a "CUT" from an arbitrary number which has few ties to reality.


Good point!

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Profile   Post #: 182
RE: S&P downgrades U.S. credit rating for first time - 8/7/2011 11:03:36 AM   
MasterJaguar01


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quote:

Our lowering of the rating was prompted by our view on the rising public
debt burden and our perception of greater policymaking uncertainty, consistent
with our criteria


I think this summarizing statement sums up EXACTLY what I said earlier.

Public Debt Burden COMBINED with greater policymaking uncertainty.

Put them both together and you get a downgrade.


Bush and Obama provided the lions share of the former (you can debate the merits of either all you want), and the Tea Party provided the latter.

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Profile   Post #: 183
RE: S&P downgrades U.S. credit rating for first time - 8/7/2011 11:11:04 AM   
lockedaway


Posts: 1720
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quote:

ORIGINAL: MasterJaguar01

quote:

Our lowering of the rating was prompted by our view on the rising public
debt burden and our perception of greater policymaking uncertainty, consistent
with our criteria


I think this summarizing statement sums up EXACTLY what I said earlier.

Public Debt Burden COMBINED with greater policymaking uncertainty.

Put them both together and you get a downgrade.


Bush and Obama provided the lions share of the former (you can debate the merits of either all you want), and the Tea Party provided the latter.


Well I agree with you as well. :)  Now comes the nut cutting part.  Now comes the part where we make EVERYONE scream.  What do you think should be cut?  I say everything by 10% for starters, no exceptions.  And at the same time we do pension reform and we start taking a serious look at a Flat Tax and federal sales tax.  With 10% in real cuts and then a freeze on the budget for 10 years...how would the CBO score that?  It would probably be "scored" for mass consumption as a program that would completely eliminate the debt within ten years.  It wouldn't.  But it would likely be spoon fed to us in that kind of language.

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Profile   Post #: 184
RE: S&P downgrades U.S. credit rating for first time - 8/7/2011 11:13:38 AM   
willbeurdaddy


Posts: 11894
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Status: offline 		FR

David Beers today:

Balance between revenue and cuts not as important as addressing entitlement reforms which are critical to long term deficit reduction.
Congress and administration are all responsible, parties can change, we were not addressing any party's policies in the downgrade or the negative outlook.
2 trillion "error" is a mischaracterization of very complex assumptions


I think he read my posts.


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Profile   Post #: 185
RE: S&P downgrades U.S. credit rating for first time - 8/7/2011 11:45:29 AM   
MasterJaguar01


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quote:

ORIGINAL: lockedaway


Well I agree with you as well. :)  Now comes the nut cutting part.  Now comes the part where we make EVERYONE scream.  What do you think should be cut?  I say everything by 10% for starters, no exceptions.  And at the same time we do pension reform and we start taking a serious look at a Flat Tax and federal sales tax.  With 10% in real cuts and then a freeze on the budget for 10 years...how would the CBO score that?  It would probably be "scored" for mass consumption as a program that would completely eliminate the debt within ten years.  It wouldn't.  But it would likely be spoon fed to us in that kind of language.




I am NO expert on this subject. I do know, that if we cut the wrong things too fast, we damage our already anemic recovery. We definitely need CUTS (and I do not have the answer)

I do however, have some suggestions for cost savings in healthcare (drives Medicare and has a significant impact on the economy as a whole)
A) Break the hold that health insurance companies have. Create a NEW model for payment (other than fee for service). The fee for service model has done nothing but driven costs up. Innovative companies, such as QLiance (http://www.qliance.com) have developed a Direct Pay model. People SUBSCRIBE directly to the provider (or group of providers) for routine and urgent care. This drives cost down. Medicare could work that way, and kick a portion of the revenue to participating providers. The City of San Francisco has program called "Healthy San Francisco" that does JUST that. This would enable insurance companies to switch to a Property and Casualty model, rather than a Health Maintenance model. MUCH Cheaper, if an insurance company is only underwriting a casualty (i.e. major hospitalization) rather than underwriting one's entire health maintenance. This could help Medicaid as well.

B) Repeal Medicare Part D immediately. Let medicare negotiate on the free market (including Canada) for the BEST price possible


Just a couple ideas

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Profile   Post #: 186
RE: S&P downgrades U.S. credit rating for first time - 8/7/2011 12:53:40 PM   
willbeurdaddy


Posts: 11894
Joined: 4/8/2006
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quote:

ORIGINAL: lockedaway

Well I agree with you as well. :)  Now comes the nut cutting part.  Now comes the part where we make EVERYONE scream.  What do you think should be cut?  I say everything by 10% for starters, no exceptions.  And at the same time we do pension reform and we start taking a serious look at a Flat Tax and federal sales tax.  With 10% in real cuts and then a freeze on the budget for 10 years...how would the CBO score that?  It would probably be "scored" for mass consumption as a program that would completely eliminate the debt within ten years.  It wouldn't.  But it would likely be spoon fed to us in that kind of language.



Cut the budget to last years levels and then 1% a year for 6 years. Then resume growth at CPI. Generally across the board, but some less cuts some more. That in and of itself dynamicallyscores as eliminating the debt under more than 1/2 of projected economic scenarios. These dont include SS which only needs long term fixes, and includes an actual cut to Medicare of the $500 billion Obama's budgets reflect.

There is a great danger to a Federal Sales Tax...once its there its too fucking easy to increase a .25% here, .50% there, and pretty soon youre talking about real money. If you dont cut income taxes at the same time its a non-starter imo. Flat tax is interesting but there is one piece of social engineering in the tax code that Ive never seen adequately addressed...mortgage interest deductions. Change that and its instant depression. Even if the net taxes paid under the flat tax are the same, the change in tax preferences for home ownership would decimate the housing market, where most of middle class wealth still resides, particularly boomers who are in their last home and have been for many years. The ramifications would make eliminating SS seem minor (Again for the middle class).


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and harken
to the barking of the dogfox,
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Profile   Post #: 187
RE: S&P downgrades U.S. credit rating for first time - 8/7/2011 11:55:58 PM   
Termyn8or


Posts: 18681
Joined: 11/12/2005
Status: offline 		"There is a great danger to a Federal Sales Tax."

I'm sure you don't know this, but they cannot do that. If goods or services do not cross state lines the feds simply do not have a claim to it.

I actually agree with you, that we should not have something like the VAT they have over in Europe. But the thing is it will NOT HAPPEN as long as anyone who knows the first fucking thing about the Constitution is watching.

T^T

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Profile   Post #: 188
RE: S&P downgrades U.S. credit rating for first time - 8/8/2011 12:18:19 AM   
tweakabelle


Posts: 7522
Joined: 10/16/2007
From: Sydney Australia
Status: offline
quote:

MasterJaguar01

B) Repeal Medicare Part D immediately. Let medicare negotiate on the free market (including Canada) for the BEST price possible


You might be interested in how the Pharmaceutical Benefiits Scheme operates here. The net outcome is that all Australians can easily afford all the prescription drugs they need, whatever the book value of the drug or the personal circumstances of the individual.

Savings are created by the Govt/Medicare negotiating the price of drugs with drug companies on a national basis, driving purchase costs down and spreading the costs through the system. (Yet another area where 'socialised healthcare' proves far more efficient, cost effective and beneficial for consumers than private healthcare)

That any one might be denied the medicine they need because of cost is unthinkable here. Most Aussies would regard a situation like that as primitive or barbaric.

< Message edited by tweakabelle -- 8/8/2011 12:19:22 AM >

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RE: S&P downgrades U.S. credit rating for first time - 8/8/2011 12:22:43 AM   
Termyn8or


Posts: 18681
Joined: 11/12/2005
Status: offline 		Y'know tweakie, I am going to have an insurance claim soon, and I wanted to go to Norway, after some shit Aswad said I think i's a good fucking country. Now you got me wanting to go to Austrail;ia.

Goddammit.

T^T

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Profile   Post #: 190
RE: S&P downgrades U.S. credit rating for first time - 8/8/2011 12:45:25 AM   
tweakabelle


Posts: 7522
Joined: 10/16/2007
From: Sydney Australia
Status: offline 		Think sunshine or snow T ^ T. Which ever you prefer gives you the answer!

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Profile   Post #: 191
RE: S&P downgrades U.S. credit rating for first time - 8/8/2011 4:45:19 AM   
Moonhead


Posts: 16520
Joined: 9/21/2009
Status: offline 		Maybe he skies? Don't think you get a lot of that in Australia...

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Profile   Post #: 192
RE: S&P downgrades U.S. credit rating for first time - 8/8/2011 8:28:08 AM   
willbeurdaddy


Posts: 11894
Joined: 4/8/2006
Status: offline 		"Treasury prices rose on Monday, pushing yields back down toward October levels, as investors pulled funds out of stocks and most commodities and sought the liquidity and safe-haven status of the U.S. debt market after the countrys credit rating was downgraded."

QED



_____________________________

Hear the lark
and harken
to the barking of the dogfox,
gone to ground.

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Profile   Post #: 193
RE: S&P downgrades U.S. credit rating for first time - 8/8/2011 8:29:43 AM   
mnottertail


Posts: 60698
Joined: 11/3/2004
Status: offline 		So, they aint thinking too much of S&Ps ratings, hah?

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Profile   Post #: 194
RE: S&P downgrades U.S. credit rating for first time - 8/8/2011 8:53:39 AM   
Real0ne


Posts: 21189
Joined: 10/25/2004
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quote:

ORIGINAL: willbeurdaddy

"Treasury prices rose on Monday, pushing yields back down toward October levels, as investors pulled funds out of stocks and most commodities and sought the liquidity and safe-haven status of the U.S. debt market after the countrys credit rating was downgraded."

QED




chinas military aint big enough yet lol


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Yesterdays tinfoil is today's reality!

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Profile   Post #: 195
RE: S&P downgrades U.S. credit rating for first time - 8/8/2011 9:07:01 AM   
mnottertail


Posts: 60698
Joined: 11/3/2004
Status: offline 		It dont matter how big chinas military is, they dont want to make war on us and lose all that money they loaned us by putting us to the torch.



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Have they not divided the prey; to every man a damsel or two? Judges 5:30


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Profile   Post #: 196
RE: S&P downgrades U.S. credit rating for first time - 8/8/2011 9:32:46 AM   
lockedaway


Posts: 1720
Joined: 3/15/2007
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Real0ne

quote:

ORIGINAL: willbeurdaddy

"Treasury prices rose on Monday, pushing yields back down toward October levels, as investors pulled funds out of stocks and most commodities and sought the liquidity and safe-haven status of the U.S. debt market after the countrys credit rating was downgraded."

QED




chinas military aint big enough yet lol



China wouldn't do anything against main land U.S. because of their investment here and because a nuclear deterrent would be employed immediately.  That is precisely why you will never see another Normandy style invasion again also.  Too big a heat signature and then boom.

If we fight with China, it will be in sponsored theaters like No. Korea or Taiwan.  But as long as Europe continues to go to shit, our interest rates will drop, German bond yields will drop and people will by U.S. t-bills, bonds and not and German bonds.  But with a 250 point drop before noon....it kind of makes you wonder what the rest of the day will be like.

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Profile   Post #: 197
RE: S&P downgrades U.S. credit rating for first time - 8/8/2011 10:15:48 AM   
pahunkboy


Posts: 33061
Joined: 2/26/2006
From: Central Pennsylvania
Status: offline 		We own the gold.. and the gold we hold for others... they can not have it back.    Check on this... in addition to the 8000 tons we own- we hold 20,000 tons of other countries gold.   A ton is alot of ounces.   Gold is $1714.50 right now. 

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Profile   Post #: 198
RE: S&P downgrades U.S. credit rating for first time - 8/8/2011 11:34:05 AM   
slvemike4u


Posts: 17896
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From: United States
Status: offline 		Locked as per your suggestion of a 10% spending cut across the board.....would you agree to merge that with an equal across the board raise in revenues ?
I'm thinking your answer to that would be no....lol.
What is so wrong with a balanced approach....balance in all things is good,no ?

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RE: S&P downgrades U.S. credit rating for first time - 8/8/2011 12:19:53 PM   
blacksword404


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quote:

ORIGINAL: slvemike4u

Locked as per your suggestion of a 10% spending cut across the board.....would you agree to merge that with an equal across the board raise in revenues ?
I'm thinking your answer to that would be no....lol.
What is so wrong with a balanced approach....balance in all things is good,no ?


I could agree to that. As long as all that revenue goes absolutely to our debt alone. Without exception. And all cuts hit every part of government and all taxes are raised equally on everybody. We all suffer until none of us do.

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