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RE: Obama the nominee??? - 12/5/2011 8:09:20 AM   
DarkSteven


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quote:

ORIGINAL: seekerofslut

Made a bet with a guy the other night, witnessed by the bartender. I do not believe the DNC is fully behind Obama.

  Interesting. 
quote:



Besides being an empty suit he's way to radical and incompetent even for the liberal Democrat establishment excepting the far far left wing.


1. This sounds like YOU think he's an empty suit, radical, and incompetent, and assume that everyone else, including those you acknowledge as being liberal, see things your way.

2. His domestic policies have not gone well.  His foreign policies have actually been pretty good, especially in very tricky times.

3. Actually, the major dissent from within his party comes from those who feel he's not done enough to break from Bush's policies.  He's fairly moderate.  However, there are a lot of talking heads who claim he's a dangerous radical.  I'm not certain whether they do that to sell more books or because they sincerely believe it.

quote:



I also do not believe that the DNC is willing to just give the election to the Republicans.



Of course they're not.  But keep in mind that just because you wouldn't vote for him, does not mean that he won't get a majority of the Electoral College.  Also, do not underestimate the fundraising power of a sitting President.  If Obama got booted from the ticket, he'd likely limit his participation to making several tepid speeches at whistle-stops.  Obama represents the Dems' best shot at holding the WH for four more years. 
quote:



My bet is that the DNC convention will not be a perfunctory rubber stamp for O, but that O shall not receive the nomination on the first or second ballot whereupon the convention shall be declared open and on nomination Hillary will be chosen as the Democratic nominee of the party.



That would be just about unprecedented.  The last time a sitting President faced any real opposition was in 1968, when LBJ's candidacy got shot down due to unpopularity over the Vietnam War.  Eugene McCarthy almost upset him in the primary, and then Bobby Kennedy entered the race.  According to Wikipedia, the Democratic party then split into four factions.  Humphrey was actually designated as the Dem candidate despite not having run in the primaries, and the resultant turmoil cost the Dems the election.  NOT an experience that either party would want to replicate.

Note that in your scenario, Obama will not win on the first ballot.  That implies that somebody would run against him.  Who do you see challenging him, in the primaries?  I sure as heck don't see anyone.



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Profile   Post #: 21
RE: Obama the nominee??? - 12/5/2011 10:17:59 AM   
Lucylastic


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Winterapple

The shit bartenders have to listen to.


I utterly agree with this point, I like the rest of your post too, but THIS made me smile


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Profile   Post #: 22
RE: Obama the nominee??? - 12/5/2011 12:45:42 PM   
seekerofslut


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quote:

ORIGINAL: DarkSteven



1. This sounds like YOU think he's an empty suit, radical, and incompetent, and assume that everyone else, including those you acknowledge as being liberal, see things your way.

Most democrats I know (IRL) would trade O for Hillary in a heartbeat. This says something. Also, even some of the liberal wing of the MSM are backing away from Obama.

2. His domestic policies have not gone well.  His foreign policies have actually been pretty good, especially in very tricky times.

Unless the middle-east blows up, domestic will be center stage come summer.

3. Actually, the major dissent from within his party comes from those who feel he's not done enough to break from Bush's policies. 

Those are the most vocal.

He's fairly moderate. 

As opposed to whom and by what metric? I find him quite radical as opposed to Clinton in his last 2 years.

However, there are a lot of talking heads who claim he's a dangerous radical. 

That is arguable. Point of view kinda thing.

I'm not certain whether they do that to sell more books or because they sincerely believe it.

Depends on one's point of view as to the evidence.

Obama represents the Dems' best shot at holding the WH for four more years.

Appearances can be deceiving. My opinion here, but Obama is seen by the majority of the electorate as out of touch, even incompetent (hence his current polling numbers). Four years has been quite enough. But there is a problem too. (got that "too" right Heh!) The republican field is total crap, excepting Paul for the libertarian minded.

Hillary is quite savvy. Knows which way the winds are blowing. Way more so than Obama. As you said DS, "His domestic policies have not gone well." As the economy deteriorates so shall his poll numbers. Obama is a sinking ship.

That would be just about unprecedented. 

Damn right. But I see a move to Hillary as a way to garner the independents, the disillusioned democrats and even some republicans. Just because Obama is a sitting president and currently the only one in the race does not mean he must be selected. The polling numbers indicate a repudiation of Obama's policies, and what the right offers - sucks. Hillary is easily viewed as centrist. Not that such would solve anything, but, though she says she does not want back in, she could win, which is the point of the game.

Note that in your scenario, Obama will not win on the first ballot.  That implies that somebody would run against him.  Who do you see challenging him, in the primaries?  I sure as heck don't see anyone.

I see Hillary, whether she's actually running or not. She doesn't need to actively run against Obama. She doesn't need to debate the Teleprompter-In-Chief. She need only accept if the offer is made. I believe it will be, enough so I bet on it. Of course, I could be wrong.



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Profile   Post #: 23
RE: Obama the nominee??? - 12/5/2011 12:49:21 PM   
willbeurdaddy


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Joined: 4/8/2006
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quote:

ORIGINAL: seekerofslut

Made a bet with a guy the other night, witnessed by the bartender. I do not believe the DNC is fully behind Obama. Besides being an empty suit he's way to radical and incompetent even for the liberal Democrat establishment excepting the far far left wing. I also do not believe that the DNC is willing to just give the election to the Republicans.

My bet is that the DNC convention will not be a perfunctory rubber stamp for O, but that O shall not receive the nomination on the first or second ballot whereupon the convention shall be declared open and on nomination Hillary will be chosen as the Democratic nominee of the party.

My bet is for $100 and I have 2 :1 odds.



It wouldnt be a good bet at 20:1.

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Profile   Post #: 24
RE: Obama the nominee??? - 12/5/2011 12:53:11 PM   
Lucylastic


Posts: 40310
Status: offline 		god forbid, but I agree with Wilbur

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Profile   Post #: 25
RE: Obama the nominee??? - 12/5/2011 12:53:47 PM   
Hillwilliam


Posts: 19394
Joined: 8/27/2008
Status: offline 		I do as well.

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Profile   Post #: 26
RE: Obama the nominee??? - 12/5/2011 12:53:56 PM   
tazzygirl


Posts: 37833
Joined: 10/12/2007
Status: offline 		Too much bleach!

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Profile   Post #: 27
RE: Obama the nominee??? - 12/5/2011 12:55:25 PM   
Lucylastic


Posts: 40310
Status: offline 		is that what it is?
LMAO


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Profile   Post #: 28
RE: Obama the nominee??? - 12/5/2011 1:01:09 PM   
windchymes


Posts: 9410
Joined: 4/18/2005
Status: offline 		If/when he gets the nomination, I can't help but wonder what the writers will come up with for his platforms, speeches, etc. Last time it was all about how he was going to wave a wand and make all these miraculous changes, "Together We Can", no mortgages, blah blah blah, and so many people believed it.

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Profile   Post #: 29
RE: Obama the nominee??? - 12/5/2011 1:02:51 PM   
willbeurdaddy


Posts: 11894
Joined: 4/8/2006
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quote:

ORIGINAL: windchymes

If/when he gets the nomination, I can't help but wonder what the writers will come up with for his platforms, speeches, etc. Last time it was all about how he was going to wave a wand and make all these miraculous changes, "Together We Can", no mortgages, blah blah blah, and so many people believed it.


they are already rolling it out..."We Need More Time"

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to the barking of the dogfox,
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Profile   Post #: 30
RE: Obama the nominee??? - 12/5/2011 1:11:46 PM   
tazzygirl


Posts: 37833
Joined: 10/12/2007
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: windchymes

If/when he gets the nomination, I can't help but wonder what the writers will come up with for his platforms, speeches, etc. Last time it was all about how he was going to wave a wand and make all these miraculous changes, "Together We Can", no mortgages, blah blah blah, and so many people believed it.


We already know what the GOP would use....

Women and children first.

First to get screwed.


_____________________________

Telling me to take Midol wont help your butthurt.
RIP, my demon-child 5-16-11
Duchess of Dissent 1
Dont judge me because I sin differently than you.
If you want it sugar coated, dont ask me what i think! It would violate TOS.

(in reply to windchymes)
Profile   Post #: 31
RE: Obama the nominee??? - 12/5/2011 1:14:22 PM   
Hillwilliam


Posts: 19394
Joined: 8/27/2008
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: willbeurdaddy


quote:

ORIGINAL: windchymes

If/when he gets the nomination, I can't help but wonder what the writers will come up with for his platforms, speeches, etc. Last time it was all about how he was going to wave a wand and make all these miraculous changes, "Together We Can", no mortgages, blah blah blah, and so many people believed it.


they are already rolling it out..."We Need More Time"

It worked like a charm for Dubya and Iraq.

_____________________________

Kinkier than a cheap garden hose.

Whoever said "Religion is the opiate of the masses" never heard Right Wing talk radio.

Don't blame me, I voted for Gary Johnson.

(in reply to willbeurdaddy)
Profile   Post #: 32
RE: Obama the nominee??? - 12/5/2011 1:16:45 PM   
willbeurdaddy


Posts: 11894
Joined: 4/8/2006
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Hillwilliam


quote:

ORIGINAL: willbeurdaddy


quote:

ORIGINAL: windchymes

If/when he gets the nomination, I can't help but wonder what the writers will come up with for his platforms, speeches, etc. Last time it was all about how he was going to wave a wand and make all these miraculous changes, "Together We Can", no mortgages, blah blah blah, and so many people believed it.


they are already rolling it out..."We Need More Time"

It worked like a charm for Dubya and Iraq.



Yup, as Obama proved by sticking to GWBs timeline and then claiming credit, when he opposed the surge in the first place.

_____________________________

Hear the lark
and harken
to the barking of the dogfox,
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Profile   Post #: 33
RE: Obama the nominee??? - 12/5/2011 1:18:12 PM   
domiguy


Posts: 12952
Joined: 5/2/2006
Status: offline 		Dumbest thing I ever read.

Obama gets the nomination and wilbur looses the fictitious $100.00 bet that he never made.

Anyone that agrees with wilbut has been proven to be 100% wrong.

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Profile   Post #: 34
RE: Obama the nominee??? - 12/5/2011 1:24:06 PM   
Lucylastic


Posts: 40310
Status: offline 		Wilbur saying that its a bad bet, at 20 to 1 to the OPS original bet of anyone BUT obama getting the nomination is what I was agreeing with


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<) )╯SUCH
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\(•_•)
( (> A NASTY
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(•_•)
<) )> WOMAN
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Duchess Of Dissent
Dont Hate Love

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Profile   Post #: 35
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