RE: Arab Spring in Moscow?

Collarspace Discussion Forums

Home Login Search

RE: Arab Spring in Moscow?

View related threads: (in this forum | in all forums)

Logged in as: Guest

All Forums >> [Community Discussions] >> Dungeon of Political and Religious Discussion >> RE: Arab Spring in Moscow?

Page: << < prev 1 [2] 3 4 5 next > >>

Login

Message

<< Older Topic Newer Topic >>

RE: Arab Spring in Moscow? - 12/12/2011 2:53:06 PM

tweakabelle

Posts: 7522
Joined: 10/16/2007
From: Sydney Australia
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: SpanishMatMaster

Many things. I travel regularly to Russia, I know some Russian and I know many Russians. And many Russians know me, actually thousands, I was a bit well-known in some Russian circles.

But you tend to ignore my answers so... nevermind...

I've never visited Russia SMM. It fascinates me yet the climate is such that I doubt I'll ever visit unless it's somehow work related. A dark brooding place of extremes that produces Tschaikovskis, Nabokovs, Kandinskys, Hermitage Museums and at the same time Stalins and Berias.

So i'll be fascinated to hear your perspective on what is happening there and promise to respond.

It seems to me that in the 20 odd years since the end of the Soviet Union, a couple of generations have grown up knowing a (peculiarly Russian version of) freedom. They're young smart educated and tech-savvy. And unlike previous generations, they want their human rights, freedom and democratic privileges.

In Australia, we call change like this a "sea-change' - the kind of total change in lifestyle and quality of life experienced by people retiring to seaside villages, or young and middle aged professionals escaping to them to get away from the rat race in the big cities.

So I'm quite optimistic.

< Message edited by tweakabelle -- 12/12/2011 2:59:58 PM >

_____________________________

(in reply to SpanishMatMaster)

Post #: 21

RE: Arab Spring in Moscow? - 12/13/2011 7:35:20 AM

SpanishMatMaster

Posts: 967
Joined: 9/28/2011
Status: offline

Ok, tweakabelle, then I'll answer. But I will ask again next time, I am sorry but I very much dislike spending time writing something thoughtful to get no answer.

Rodina. This is the word used by Russians to refer to their country. The accent is in the "i". When they say it, you can see in their faces a special expression, which also has a name and it is hard to translate. A special kind of nostalgia, a nostalgia for something which has not happened, but could have happened. Russian patriotism is a feeling of "we could be so much if only... " .

Russians do not care much about democracy. Democracy is a western concept for them, a "European" concept (and for many Russians, Russia is not Europe and Europe begins in Poland). They distrust it. Even the democrats have to put a lot of "but" and "when" and limits to their concept of democracy to be accepted.

Russia believes on strong leaders. It is presidential to the bone. They do like freedom and human rights, they are not so different in that way, but they do think that Someone Has To Rule. The normal reaction of a Russian when he hears about the Congress imposing a veto on a decision of Obama in the USA is *slapface* .

This hasn't changed. The new generations, including very young people, are still like this. I have not spoken with protestors, so I can't say if they are a special minority I have never met before, or children of some western-oriented "intelligentsia". But my educated guess is, that they are protesting against:

The central control of the city majors. Particularly in Moscow, the stupid decision of the new major to remove the kiosks, and the very fact that Yuri Luzhkov was fired and substituted by a puppet of the Kreml, are not welcome.
Corruption. Something Medvediev has tried to fight, unsuccessfully. Now Putin comes again as President. People are angry that the years of Medvediev have brought so few in this aspect.

They are not protesting against the system. They just want a better government. That would be my educated guess.

However, I may be wrong. In the Jasmin revolutions, there was an aspect of "dignity" which was very important. Arabs felt not only oppressed and robbed... they felt insulted. And it can be, that the fact that (as everybody guessed) Putin comes again as President, is considered by some Russians as a way to laugh about them. Like in "we can do whatever we want - we do not need even to simulate that you have a choice". A bit too blatant. Too rude. Maybe enough Russians feel also insulted.

As for the freedom: Russians do not hold freedom on a high value. They value it more than democracy, but much less as patriotism, lead, justice, honesty and prosperity. If a journalist investigates a scandal of oligarchs and disappears, he gets the sympathy of the people. If he attacks the President for wrong decisions and disappears, he gets indifference. I have not seen Russians between 15 and 30 being any different on this. The main comment on western-oriented politicians like Grigori Yavlinksi (of the disappeared Yábloko) was an ironic smile and "this is not Europe".

Therefore, my position on the near future of Russia is... well, Russian itself. Not so optimistic at all. I think indeed that the Government has got a warning. That Putin will have to deal with a different kind of public opinion and media as before. That Russians are disgusted, even if not rebelling or protesting openly (50 thousand in Moscow is not really much, and in Moscow we had special circumstances). They expect their leader to work better in the matter of corruption and not accumulate arbitrary decisions or stupid protegees.

It Putin understands (and he may well understand), we will live many years of "peaceful autocracy", a deal where Russians get increases of prosperity and security and support the President for it.

Only if Putin decides to radicalize its positions due to the protests, and loses the sense of reality (which can also happen, he is far from immune) we will see a progressive rebellion, and in some years the situation can have changed completely. Not now, and not in the Presidential elections, but for the next Duma.

There will be no Jasmin revolution in Russia. This is my guessing. There can be, at most, a peaceful reform in some years, and this only if Putin acts in an extremely arrogant and inefficient way.

_____________________________

Humanist (therefore Atheist), intelligent, cultivated and very humble :)
If I don't answer you, maybe I "hid" you: PM me if you want.
“Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, pause and reflect.” (Mark Twain)

(in reply to tweakabelle)

Post #: 22

RE: Arab Spring in Moscow? - 12/13/2011 7:38:02 AM

SpanishMatMaster

Posts: 967
Joined: 9/28/2011
Status: offline

PS: What do you have against the climate? Visit Moscow in Spring or Autumn, near the Summer but not in August. Visit Sankt Petersburg during the White Nights. Nizhny anytime, unless you really dislike snow.

_____________________________

Humanist (therefore Atheist), intelligent, cultivated and very humble :)
If I don't answer you, maybe I "hid" you: PM me if you want.
“Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, pause and reflect.” (Mark Twain)

(in reply to SpanishMatMaster)

Post #: 23

RE: Arab Spring in Moscow? - 12/13/2011 9:27:22 AM

ashjor911

Posts: 7793
Joined: 9/7/2010
From: balcony, having a Smoke
Status: offline

I dont know about you, but when its here -7 C I got freezing fingers, I may die on the way to Moscow, not in it.....
however, you are right about the summer,

I have a question for you, before that let me tell you something,
I was in Cairo in 2002-2005, I talked to everyone there, & some like mobarak & some dont,
but I did not find anyone from ( Middle lower, Lower Class) like him, not one, nontheless the people who are under that scale who do not care anymore, all they care about is their food for the day.

My question is, From What Class of the Russian society Did you come up with this conclusion?

_____________________________

"operative" working undercover for the federal government of bangladesh.

my name is : bonsh ... jamesh bonsh.
code name : 009.5
licensed to give formla

(in reply to SpanishMatMaster)

Post #: 24

RE: Arab Spring in Moscow? - 12/13/2011 12:28:47 PM

SpanishMatMaster

Posts: 967
Joined: 9/28/2011
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: ashjor911
My question is, From What Class of the Russian society Did you come up with this conclusion?

I do not mean which conclusion exactly do you mean.
But I have had a certain relation with people who could ask for a bottle of wine for $500 without commenting it, and people who would have considered that their income for half a year. So, I would exclude the real high class (the bottle would have been $5000) and lowest class (no income). The rest, I know.

PS: I love walking in a city. I remember one February in St. Petersburg. It was about 35 degrees under zero, the sky was bright but white, no snow falling. It was so cold that the air was extremely dry even with all that snow and ice around. My nostrils filled with ice, so I had to expand them to breath. But exactly that provoked a vigorizing reaction. Maybe I hyperoxigenated a bit, I do not know, I know only that it felt absolutely wonderful, and not cold at all. I took out the scarf and opened the coat and the jacket... then I took them out, I took the necktie away, I opened the shirt, opened the arms. It felt fantastic, like bathing in the best brut nature you can find, like breathing it. I opened the mouth, it was on the bridge to the Admirality, I was over the Neva looking at the wonderful buildings, silence around me and that air... it felt absolutely fantastic, I think I will remember it the rest of my life. And I did not even get a cold - nothing. So, well, maybe my way to percieve some things is a bit uncommon. Yep.

< Message edited by SpanishMatMaster -- 12/13/2011 12:35:53 PM >

_____________________________

Humanist (therefore Atheist), intelligent, cultivated and very humble :)
If I don't answer you, maybe I "hid" you: PM me if you want.
“Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, pause and reflect.” (Mark Twain)

(in reply to ashjor911)

Post #: 25

RE: Arab Spring in Moscow? - 12/13/2011 12:49:52 PM

ashjor911

Posts: 7793
Joined: 9/7/2010
From: balcony, having a Smoke
Status: offline

if you can talk with someone from the lowest class at a bar or something, I think you will change your mind,

PS: I would really kill myself before thinking of going out in -35, My ears would fall off, My nose & lungs would freez from that dry cold air.

_____________________________

"operative" working undercover for the federal government of bangladesh.

my name is : bonsh ... jamesh bonsh.
code name : 009.5
licensed to give formla

(in reply to SpanishMatMaster)

Post #: 26

RE: Arab Spring in Moscow? - 12/13/2011 6:23:17 PM

tweakabelle

Posts: 7522
Joined: 10/16/2007
From: Sydney Australia
Status: offline

quote:

They are not protesting against the system. They just want a better government. That would be my educated guess.

However, I may be wrong. In the Jasmin revolutions, there was an aspect of "dignity" which was very important. Arabs felt not only oppressed and robbed... they felt insulted.

This is an interesting observation. My feeling (and something might be getting lost in translation here) is that the term Arabs favoured was "humiliated".

And it could just be that. The current generation of Russians are the best educated ever. They have been 'corrupted' by limited democracy and limited 'freedom', by better living standards and salaries. Many will have travelled overseas and seen how things there are so different - yet produce results worth copying. New technologies allow dor rapid dissemination of these new ideas and influences, as well as rap[id organisation of opposition, and communication (despite State controls on mass media)

I can see a lot of merit in that analysis. And it is consistent with your analysis of the Russian character and the feeling of scepticism towards 'democracy' you've outlined. The shabby rigged elections, without much pretence at honesty are more of an insult to the intelligence and sophistication of the new Russians.

A slightly more optimistic reading of the same evidence might favour an explanation that foregrounds ideas around 'expectations'. Let's not forget that Russia is for the first real time in modern history experiencing (at many levels but far from all levels) a degree of prosperity - increasing living standards, education, freedoms, and salaries (esp disposable incomes) will surely induce more than an elevated sense of pride in Russians, won't they?

Can you live with that term and the perspective it opens up? Many Westerners could be described as having certain expectations about their leaders and government, while at the same time being deeply cynical. So why not Russians too? Please note this is merely a suggestion ... I haven't been there and am speculating - I don't pretend to know.

It is sad to note that neither of us have mentioned the word "idealistic'. Perhaps that's understandable after their experience of the Communist 'utopia'. And seeing as you're more of a pessimist than me, I'll end for now on that harmonious note.

_____________________________

(in reply to SpanishMatMaster)

Post #: 27

RE: Arab Spring in Moscow? - 12/13/2011 6:28:45 PM

tweakabelle

Posts: 7522
Joined: 10/16/2007
From: Sydney Australia
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: SpanishMatMaster

PS: What do you have against the climate? Visit Moscow in Spring or Autumn, near the Summer but not in August. Visit Sankt Petersburg during the White Nights. Nizhny anytime, unless you really dislike snow.

SMM I am one of those people who simply can't abide cold weather.

If the temperature falls below 20C here, I shiver! I have experienced the magical atmosphere that snow can create, but the feeling I retain is that snow is best seen on postcards or from airplanes.

I suppose I'm a product of Sydney - we've about 50 beaches here and a lovely sunny climate that's warm for the entire year - except for a short winter of 8-10 weeks or so. And even in the winters here the daily temp will often reach 20-22C. What's not to like about that?

_____________________________

(in reply to SpanishMatMaster)

Post #: 28

RE: Arab Spring in Moscow? - 12/13/2011 11:55:18 PM

SpanishMatMaster

Posts: 967
Joined: 9/28/2011
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: ashjor911
if you can talk with someone from the lowest class at a bar or something, I think you will change your mind,

No, the people who can go to a bar, I have spoken with them.The rest are by far not the majority of the population, my guessing is that I have covered about the 90% of the Russian population if you separate by social classes.
A different subject matter would be, if you separate by cities. But there, my pessimism could only increase, I know much better the bigger cities, where the people are going to the streets, as the middle-sized and smaller ones where they are staying at home.

< Message edited by SpanishMatMaster -- 12/13/2011 11:58:28 PM >

_____________________________

Humanist (therefore Atheist), intelligent, cultivated and very humble :)
If I don't answer you, maybe I "hid" you: PM me if you want.
“Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, pause and reflect.” (Mark Twain)

(in reply to ashjor911)

Post #: 29

RE: Arab Spring in Moscow? - 12/14/2011 1:31:42 AM

SpanishMatMaster

Posts: 967
Joined: 9/28/2011
Status: offline

Hello, tweakabelle,

I agree with the word "humiliated" instead of "insulted", this also could possibly apply to Russia.

You speak about a new generation. I know many teenagers and young people. I really think my impression is correct, even for them.

I agree that the better economical conditions of life are a problem in the long-term for any dictatorship, from Tunis to China, but... in the long term. The current system has still the capability to produce significant increases of the living standards for some years more, if they start to fight corruption and take more care on arbitrary decisions. We are still in "China", not in "Tunis".

You speak about people who use the new technologies and travel, while ironically ashjor911 puts his hopes exactly on the opposite social class. I am sorry to disappoint both, but the class you are speaking about are quite loyal to the regime because their fathers belong to it and they hope to make money and career from it. While the poorer do not travel overseas, nor do they use massively western online media (there are Russian "facebook", Russian "google", Russian "4chan", Russian "twitter").

The "new Russians"... dear, you do not know what this expression means in Russia. Do not use it, ever, in Russia as a way to praise somebody. You will make him/her quite angry. "New Russians" are the financial sharks, high-class Mafioso and corrupted politicians. And this difference between what you think about "new Russians" and how this expression is used in Russia is very significant, IMHO.

Many Russians do not want anything new. They want their security back. Nostalgia towards the Soviet Union is widespread (say 50%, 30% in big cities), even in young people who never actually lived it (and of course they idealise it).

quote:

increasing living standards, education, freedoms, and salaries (esp disposable incomes) will surely induce more than an elevated sense of pride in Russians, won't they?

Yes. In some moment of the middle of this century. But not in the next year. Consider that many Russians have not achieved still the standard of living they had in 1975. So... not a level which provokes much pride and revolution exactly.

quote:

It is sad to note that neither of us have mentioned the word "idealistic'. Perhaps that's understandable after their experience of the Communist 'utopia'. And seeing as you're more of a pessimist than me, I'll end for now on that harmonious note.

The Russians I know and who do not distrust idealism (as I do, BTW), use this word and the concept for praise the Soviet Union. A soviet "Pioneer" child would be the perfect example. And they compare that (going to the nature, helping the weak, making propaganda, singing beautiful songs together, playing together in parks, marching in beautiful uniforms, praising the old heroes, solidarity and braveness...) to the current activities of the children besides school (playing a videogames for hours, using porn, hanging with the friends on the street 'killing the time'). And they do not exactly enjoy the "new Russian" style.
I am not saying that all Russians think this way. But a wide, wide sector of the population does.

< Message edited by SpanishMatMaster -- 12/14/2011 1:33:12 AM >

_____________________________

Humanist (therefore Atheist), intelligent, cultivated and very humble :)
If I don't answer you, maybe I "hid" you: PM me if you want.
“Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, pause and reflect.” (Mark Twain)

(in reply to tweakabelle)

Post #: 30

RE: Arab Spring in Moscow? - 12/14/2011 8:14:28 PM

tweakabelle

Posts: 7522
Joined: 10/16/2007
From: Sydney Australia
Status: offline

SMM, in your analysis, a lot of what will happen in the future revolves around how Putin & Co react to the demonstrations.

Is Putin capable of reforming himself and addressing the big challenge of eliminating corruption? He has surrounded himself with a circle of ex-KGB thugs and oligarchs all of whom depend on his favours and prosper from the corruption of the past. Are they capable of change? Won't attacking corruption isolate him from his power base in some vital ways? I find it difficult to see Putin seriously addressing this issue.

If he isn't prepared to address the issue of corruption, then it appears to me that he's equally unlikely to react astutely to the demands of the protesters. He might offer a few relatively minor or meaningless reforms. It's perfectly possible that this may prove a short term fix. But even a few crumbs will teach the protesters that there are gains available through direct action - it might just whet their appetites and broaden their agendas.

If he reacts with the big stick instead of a carrot, he runs the risk of provoking his opponents and alienating his electorate and possibly even his supporters in the populace. That could have severe short term repercussions - there's a Presidential election due shortly. Is the momentum for better corruption-free government strong enough to resist a crackdown?

It seems that there maybe big risks which ever options Putin takes ..........

< Message edited by tweakabelle -- 12/14/2011 8:16:14 PM >

_____________________________

(in reply to SpanishMatMaster)

Post #: 31

RE: Arab Spring in Moscow? - 12/14/2011 9:32:34 PM

SpanishMatMaster

Posts: 967
Joined: 9/28/2011
Status: offline

Hello, tweakabelle,

Putin can learn. He is not an idiot, nor a "thug". I do not know where do you got this impression that KGB officers are "thugs", they were actually quite cultivated technocrats and probably more loyal and honest as the Army or the bureaucrats from the "civil services". What do you think about the KGB? Would you consider any member of the CIA or the FBI a "thug"?

As for the oligarchs, he has not surrounded himself with them. He mistrusts them, keeps them in control and forces them to do what he wants. We have had now a recent example with Kommersant Vlast.

The environment of Putin is composed of "liberal" technocrats (liberal in economic sense only), ex-KGB and some absolutely loyal bureaucrats. Some of these technocrats, beginning with Medvediev, are completely aware of the problems of the corruption, and have been saying so for years now. Medvediev had made very hard declarations about the state of the State in Russia and the huge problem corruption represents. Putin could very well start to be worried and act accordingly.

It would not attack is power basis. It would provoke conflicts, yes, with the "ceilings" (Mafia cartels) and a part of the state system. But he would get support from up-to-date hostile forces like the freelance journalists. And this environment would simply say "Yes, sir" and obey. Some of them very enthusiastically.

He will try to win time, of course, and some minor meaningless reforms are probable, as you say. But... what is exactly a "short-term fix" for you? Because the current Government and the President are not in political danger. Thousands are not millions. They still have a lot of resources of power. So... they can resist, for some years still, and that's what I was saying.

Of course, some day, in the decades to go, Russia will have to change to a true democracy or a military disctatorship will be necessary. But this is not "now", not the short term, not the following few years. Putin may very well die of old age before this... if he knows how to react now.

If he reacts with violence, as he has done in the last decades, he will not provoke a revolt immediately. But he will indeed have a hard life after the presidential elections, and the next Duma could very well bring a real change. In this case, true, he will live long enough to see a completely different Russia.

Different does not mean better. A new Yeltsin is a very realistic option, if the democratic forces do not prevent it. With Putin gone, the "ceilings" and the worst of the Army, oligarchs and bureaucracy will try to seize the power. And they may well get it. The democrats are also playing a risky game, and they could end up worsening the situation.

_____________________________

Humanist (therefore Atheist), intelligent, cultivated and very humble :)
If I don't answer you, maybe I "hid" you: PM me if you want.
“Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, pause and reflect.” (Mark Twain)

(in reply to tweakabelle)

Post #: 32

RE: Arab Spring in Moscow? - 12/15/2011 11:01:50 AM

tweakabelle

Posts: 7522
Joined: 10/16/2007
From: Sydney Australia
Status: offline

quote:

Putin can learn. He is not an idiot, nor a "thug". I do not know where do you got this impression that KGB officers are "thugs", they were actually quite cultivated technocrats and probably more loyal and honest as the Army or the bureaucrats from the "civil services". What do you think about the KGB? Would you consider any member of the CIA or the FBI a "thug"?

As for the oligarchs, he has not surrounded himself with them. He mistrusts them, keeps them in control and forces them to do what he wants. We have had now a recent example with Kommersant Vlast.

SMM,

No doubt you are aware of what happens to Putin's political opponents, journalists or even oligarchs who upset cute little Vlad. They have the unfortunate habit of ending up murdered, in exile or in the Gulag. Khodorkovsky, the ex-Yukos boss is one well known case, who had his multi-billion-dollar company stolen from him by the State and ended up in prison for 'tax evasion' for daring to oppose Putin. Mind you, Khodorkovsky probably acquired his wealth by dubious means, I'm not suggesting he was an angel.

Quite a few investigative journalists have ended up murdered (this is not a good career move!) - Anna Khorivskaya (pls excuse the spelling) is one name that springs to mind. Even exile isn't good enough sometimes - there was that guy who was murdered by radiation poisoning in London. I believe that a prominent Russian politician (ex-KGB too) is the subject of a UK murder warrant in this case. Putin's Russia has refused to extradite this person to the UK to answer the murder charge.

Most commentators I've read believe that none of these killings could have happened without Putin's authorisation. Most believe that the killers are drawn from the ranks of/organised by the ex-KGB people in Putin's circle. If this line of thinking is correct, it would appear that either Putin is fond of thuggish tactics to eliminate threats to his rule, or thugs are very fond of Putin.

Whether they're thugs or just State functionaries might be arguable. Nice people they most certainly aren't. Are they any better than comparable services overseas? A number of countries routinely murder their political opponents - the US and Israel probably being the most consistent - but neither of these use murder to police internal dissent or the media. There's quite a difference between say, an Israeli targeted assassination of a prominent Hamas operative and the State sponsored killing of an investigative journalist.

I can't say that I'm too clear about who is in and who is out of Putin's inner circle. Roman Abramovich is one oligarch said to be close to Putin. So close that Abramovich gave Putin a present of the $60 million yacht below. Pretty isn't it? (Why don't my friends give me presents like that?? lol I'd be ever so appreciative!)

Attachment (1)

_____________________________

(in reply to SpanishMatMaster)

Post #: 33

RE: Arab Spring in Moscow? - 12/15/2011 11:15:05 AM

tweakabelle

Posts: 7522
Joined: 10/16/2007
From: Sydney Australia
Status: offline

quote:

The environment of Putin is composed of "liberal" technocrats (liberal in economic sense only), ex-KGB and some absolutely loyal bureaucrats. Some of these technocrats, beginning with Medvediev, are completely aware of the problems of the corruption, and have been saying so for years now. Medvediev had made very hard declarations about the state of the State in Russia and the huge problem corruption represents. Putin could very well start to be worried and act accordingly.

It would not attack is power basis. It would provoke conflicts, yes, with the "ceilings" (Mafia cartels) and a part of the state system. But he would get support from up-to-date hostile forces like the freelance journalists.

SMM,

Medvediev held the Presidency for 7 (?) years. It's not clear how much power he exercised independently of Putin. Some suspect them of being a tag team, others see Putin as very much the boss and Medvedyev the servant.

It's perfectly correct of you to point out that Medvediev made some anti-corruption noises, particularly early into his period as President. It's also perfectly correct to add that the outcome of Medvediev's 'campaign' against corruption was ordinary (to put it mildly). The same as the outcome of his calls for a more liberal (in the Western sense) political system and for an independent judiciary and the integrity of the rule of law.

Do you have any insight in why these outcomes were so poor? Was there ever any serious attempt at reform? If so I didn't see any reports of it. Don't these failures justify a certain cynicism about obtaining better results in the future under the same leadership team?

_____________________________

(in reply to SpanishMatMaster)

Post #: 34

RE: Arab Spring in Moscow? - 12/15/2011 11:48:45 AM

Moonhead

Posts: 16520
Joined: 9/21/2009
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: tweakabelle
A dark brooding place of extremes that produces Tschaikovskis, Nabokovs, Kandinskys, Hermitage Museums and at the same time Stalins and Berias.

Not having Nabakov in that list: he didn't publish a word in Russian and only wrote in English after moving to the 'States.
You might as well claim Conrad for Polish literature. Not having that.
(Didn't Kadinski do most of his work in Germany as well, come to that?)

_____________________________

I like to think he was eaten by rats, in the dark, during a fog. It's what he would have wanted...
(Simon R Green on the late James Herbert)

(in reply to tweakabelle)

Post #: 35

RE: Arab Spring in Moscow? - 12/15/2011 12:07:52 PM

tweakabelle

Posts: 7522
Joined: 10/16/2007
From: Sydney Australia
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Moonhead

quote:

ORIGINAL: tweakabelle
A dark brooding place of extremes that produces Tschaikovskis, Nabokovs, Kandinskys, Hermitage Museums and at the same time Stalins and Berias.

Not having Nabakov in that list: he didn't publish a word in Russian and only wrote in English after moving to the 'States.
You might as well claim Conrad for Polish literature. Not having that.
(Didn't Kadinski do most of his work in Germany as well, come to that?)

I think I said that Russia "produces" them - rather than they were representative of mainstream Russian culture.

And the point was about 'extremes' - of climate, size, a land that stretches from Europe to Japan and from the Artic to close to the Himalayas, people that range from wonderful geniuses to some of history's worst mass murderers.

If that was unclear, my bad.

_____________________________

(in reply to Moonhead)

Post #: 36

RE: Arab Spring in Moscow? - 12/15/2011 12:09:41 PM

SpanishMatMaster

Posts: 967
Joined: 9/28/2011
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: tweakabelle
No doubt you are aware of what happens to Putin's political opponents, journalists or even oligarchs who upset cute little Vlad. They have the unfortunate habit of ending up murdered, in exile or in the Gulag.

Ah, that is what you mean. Then for you China is also ruled by "thugs". I am sorry, but I understood the expression in a different way as simply "dictatorship".

quote:

ORIGINAL: tweakabelle
Roman Abramovich is one oligarch said to be close to Putin.

Oh, no, no, no! Abramovich is not close to Putin in any sense! Putin would love to find an excuse to get rid of him. Be he has decided to play "legit" and provide no excuses.
I am sorry but your whole message #33 looks for me like an emotional attempt (backed up with hard facts) to show how bad and evil Russian dictatorship is. I understand you, but that was not my point. I misunderstood you, I though that with "thugs" you meant brutal force and lack of sophistication. There I said that this was basically wrong. But you only meant a dictatorship. Well, hey, of course, China, Russia and many other countries are then, I guess, ruled by "thugs" in this sense.

quote:

ORIGINAL: tweakabelle
Medvediev held the Presidency for 7 (?) years. It's not clear how much power he exercised independently of Putin.

Not much. Some influence. Some decisions against the criteria of Putin. But as an "intelligent servant", not as an equal.

quote:

ORIGINAL: tweakabelle
Do you have any insight in why these outcomes were so poor? Was there ever any serious attempt at reform? If so I didn't see any reports of it. Don't these failures justify a certain cynicism about obtaining better results in the future under the same leadership team?

Well, the main reason was the he simply did not have enough supporters around. Nor Putin (that would have been enough) nor a big enough section of the power, specially the Army and the Services (that would also been enough).
Cynism... I don't know what you mean. I am telling you, that this protests are a warning. United Russia loosing the constitutional majority is also a warning. So, you have a team of people, with one strong leader but some visible right-hand men. And then you have an event which can be interpreted as "one of these men was right all along, you should hear to him". Which are the chances that the team changes its policy in that direction, to avoid that the situation worsens? Not huge, but also not minimal. There are chances.
And that's what I am saying.

_____________________________

Humanist (therefore Atheist), intelligent, cultivated and very humble :)
If I don't answer you, maybe I "hid" you: PM me if you want.
“Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, pause and reflect.” (Mark Twain)

(in reply to tweakabelle)

Post #: 37

RE: Arab Spring in Moscow? - 12/15/2011 1:52:50 PM

blacksword404

Posts: 2068
Joined: 1/4/2008
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: tweakabelle

Following recent rigged elections that saw the return of Putin's party to power (with a highly reduced majority in the Duma) Russians have taken to the streets en masse to demand new, fair, clean elections.

Media reports speak of c50, 000 Muscovites and c10, 000 St Petersberg residents demonstrating their anger in the streets, scenes unprecedented in recent Russian history. Has the democratic bug finally reached Russia?

http://www.guardian.co.uk/global/2011/dec/10/russia-elections-putin-protest

Has the Arab Spring hit Moscow in the middle of the Russian winter? Will there be new elections? How will this play out? Will it influence Putin's run at another term as Russian President? Will Russians finally get the open functional democracy they deserve? Can Russians free themselves from the ex-KGB/gangster Mafia they have laboured under since Putin first achieved power?

These are just of few of the questions raised by these events. They're meant to open discussion, not represent my view. What do you think?

Russians will never embrace democracy in their hearts. They like a little freedom but they favor strong leaders. Very authoritarian. Maybe not to the extent that Stalin was. It explains why Stalin is as popular as he is despite his brutality.

To understand it you need to understand his methods. For most of those that were killed there was a knock in the middle of the night. You were dragged off and beaten until you confessed. Then beaten some more. Walked through the woods to and unmarked grave where they would point a large calibre pistol at the back of your head and shoot. Now with your face gone you were put into a grave. Never to be identified. And likely your family would have been soon joining you.

And this guy is popular? Apparently so.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/the-big-question-why-is-stalin-still-popular-in-russia-despite-the-brutality-of-his-regime-827654.html

Some countries have an identity that is incompatible with democracy. But time will tell.

_____________________________

Don't fight him. Embrace your inner asshole.

Tu fellas magnus penum meum...iterum

Genuine catnip/kryptonite.
Ego sum erus.

The capacity to learn is a gift, the ability to learn a skill, the willingness to learn a choice. Dune HH

(in reply to tweakabelle)

Post #: 38

RE: Arab Spring in Moscow? - 12/15/2011 2:14:05 PM

Moonhead

Posts: 16520
Joined: 9/21/2009
Status: offline

Quite, the Russian identity is incompatible with democracy.
That'll be why they staged a revolution, executed the Czar and his family, and attempted to set up a Ruskinite utopia.

_____________________________

I like to think he was eaten by rats, in the dark, during a fog. It's what he would have wanted...
(Simon R Green on the late James Herbert)

(in reply to blacksword404)

Post #: 39

RE: Arab Spring in Moscow? - 12/15/2011 4:31:58 PM

blacksword404

Posts: 2068
Joined: 1/4/2008
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Moonhead

Quite, the Russian identity is incompatible with democracy.
That'll be why they staged a revolution, executed the Czar and his family, and attempted to set up a Ruskinite utopia.

Times change. And sometimes they change back.

_____________________________

Don't fight him. Embrace your inner asshole.

Tu fellas magnus penum meum...iterum

Genuine catnip/kryptonite.
Ego sum erus.

The capacity to learn is a gift, the ability to learn a skill, the willingness to learn a choice. Dune HH

(in reply to Moonhead)

Post #: 40

Page: << < prev 1 [2] 3 4 5 next > >>

All Forums >> [Community Discussions] >> Dungeon of Political and Religious Discussion >> RE: Arab Spring in Moscow?

Page: << < prev 1 [2] 3 4 5 next > >>

Jump to:

New Messages	No New Messages
Hot Topic w/ New Messages	Hot Topic w/o New Messages
Locked w/ New Messages	Locked w/o New Messages

Post New Thread

Reply to Message

Post New Poll

Submit Vote

Delete My Own Post

Delete My Own Thread

Rate Posts

Collarchat.com © 2025

Terms of Service

0.125