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Fox News Poll - 12/10/2011 7:36:35 PM

tazzygirl

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Nope, not a dig at Fox thread.

Newt Gingrich has increased his lead over Mitt Romney in the race for the Republican nomination, yet the former House speaker is weaker than Romney with the general electorate.

Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/12/08/fox-news-poll-romney-bests-gingrich-in-matchups-against-obama/#ixzz1gC4GZ3WK

How does that work?

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RE: Fox News Poll - 12/10/2011 8:09:27 PM

Owner59

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newt looked real bad tonight at the debate.

newtromney as Michele Backman called both Mitt and newt, both did poorly.Constant comparisons with President Obama from all candidates.

newt got hammered on his cheating."If he cheats on his wife,he`ll cheat his business partner".....OUCH!

Hammered on fannie/freddie and hammered supporting the individual mandate.

newty also got hamered by Mitt and others on saying the Palestinians were an "invented" people.

Mitt said that you shouldn`t be so reckless while rockets are being fired everyday.Then implied newty was a bomb-thrower and trouble maker:

"Newt Gingrich stood by his statement Saturday night that Palestinians are an "invented" people, but Ron Paul accused him of "stirring up trouble."

"This is a propaganda war. Enough lying about the Middle East," Gingrich declared to applause at the ABC presidential debate.

Paul countered that "Israel did not have a state" until 1948.

Mitt Romney said a U.S. president needs to demonstrate "sobriety, care and stability."

"I'm not a bomb thrower, rhetorically or literally," Romney said.

To ever greater applause than Gingrich received, Rick Perry said the media overplayed the former House speaker's comment"

http://www.sunshinestatenews.com/blog/mitt-romney-newt-gingrich-im-no-bomb-thrower-mideast

Paul did the best IMO and was the strongest.

< Message edited by Owner59 -- 12/10/2011 8:12:08 PM >

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RE: Fox News Poll - 12/10/2011 8:39:15 PM

tazzygirl

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I loved the story of the 8 year old boy who put her into her place.

An 8-year-old boy confronted GOP contender Michele Bachmann at a book-signing event in South Carolina, and stood up for his gay mother.

“My mom is gay and she doesn’t need fixing,” the boy, identified only as Elijah, is heard whispering to Bachmann in a video posted to YouTube.

Bachmann initially says nothing to the boy, but as he walks away she responds: “Ok. Bye-bye.”

According to Chicago Now, a woman who identified herself as the shooter of the clip said the boy’s mother planned to confront Bachmann but got nervous. Elijah insisted they stay at the event to talk to the congresswoman.

“I was standing in line with Elijah and his mom. His mom was going to say something to her, but she got nervous and told me she wanted to leave. We were about to step out of the line but Elijah cried out, ‘Nooo!’ He grabbed onto her coat and pulled her back in the line, saying he wanted to talk to her,” the woman told Chicago Now.

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2011/12/boy-8-tells-bachmann-his-gay-mommy-doesnt-need-to-be-fixed/

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2K8CGeC2M_U&feature=player_embedded

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RE: Fox News Poll - 12/10/2011 9:04:34 PM

Hippiekinkster

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I note that Owner got distracted by something shiny and didn't answer your question, Taz.

I, myself, had this whole elegant theory worked out, with probabilities and everything. Then I re-read your question and decided it was bullshit. Oops.

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RE: Fox News Poll - 12/10/2011 9:26:15 PM

tazzygirl

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lol Which was bullshit, my question or your answer?

Sorry, I am not being evasive. It just makes little sense to me that the polls are saying Gingrich has a lead over Romney, yet Romney has a lead over Gingrich. The First for the GOP nod, the second for the Presidency. That just doesnt make sense to me

_____________________________

Telling me to take Midol wont help your butthurt.
RIP, my demon-child 5-16-11
Duchess of Dissent 1
Dont judge me because I sin differently than you.
If you want it sugar coated, dont ask me what i think! It would violate TOS.

(in reply to Hippiekinkster)

Post #: 5

RE: Fox News Poll - 12/10/2011 9:50:58 PM

FirmhandKY

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quote:

ORIGINAL: tazzygirl

lol Which was bullshit, my question or your answer?

Sorry, I am not being evasive. It just makes little sense to me that the polls are saying Gingrich has a lead over Romney, yet Romney has a lead over Gingrich. The First for the GOP nod, the second for the Presidency. That just doesnt make sense to me

Of the universe of GOP primary voters (excludes independents and Democrats), Newt has the lead over Romney.

In the universe of all voters in a Presidential election, more people (including independents and Dems) favor Romney over Newt.

What's so difficult to grasp?

Firm

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RE: Fox News Poll - 12/10/2011 9:52:36 PM

tazzygirl

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Hopefully someone will answer... lol

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Telling me to take Midol wont help your butthurt.
RIP, my demon-child 5-16-11
Duchess of Dissent 1
Dont judge me because I sin differently than you.
If you want it sugar coated, dont ask me what i think! It would violate TOS.

(in reply to tazzygirl)

Post #: 7

RE: Fox News Poll - 12/10/2011 10:03:21 PM

Hippiekinkster

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quote:

ORIGINAL: tazzygirl

lol Which was bullshit, my question or your answer?

Sorry, I am not being evasive. It just makes little sense to me that the polls are saying Gingrich has a lead over Romney, yet Romney has a lead over Gingrich. The First for the GOP nod, the second for the Presidency. That just doesnt make sense to me

Oh, my whole theory was bullshit. That's (my self-assessment) being overly critical, though, I think, upon further Crispin Cider-fueled consideration.

quote:

That is an outstanding question. Let me see if I can explain my thinking about the following statement, taken from the poll:
"Landline and cell phone telephone numbers were randomly selected for inclusion in the survey using a probability proportionate to size method, which means that phone numbers for each state are proportional to the number of voters in each state."

Let's assume that equal numbers of landlines and cells were selected (as the number of coin tosses approaches infinity, the probability of any single coin toss being heads (cell phone) is 0.5). Who uses landlines? Late adopters of cell technology. Why do they use landlines? They are more resistant to technological change; i.e., more conservative. Where are higher percentages of conservative people located? Rural and exurban areas.

Stay with me here. In many large metro areas (most, as far as I know), suburbs are more conservative than the central metro areas. They tend to balance each other out. Cell phone use is therefore used pretty much equally by Ds and Rs.

Let's assign some numbers, just for grins:
Cell phone numbers selected = 50% = 459 (about)
Landline numbers selected = 50% = 459 (about)
Cell phone user probability of being R or I(R) = 0.5
Landline user probability of being R or I(R) = 0.5 + x
Landline user probability of being D or I(D) = 0.5 - x.

See what is going on in the above?

It's entirely possible that the sample is biased towards the

And that's as far as I got.

< Message edited by Hippiekinkster -- 12/10/2011 10:04:17 PM >

_____________________________

"We are convinced that freedom w/o Socialism is privilege and injustice, and that Socialism w/o freedom is slavery and brutality." Bakunin

“Nothing we do, however virtuous, can be accomplished alone; therefore we are saved by love.” Reinhold Ne

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Post #: 8

RE: Fox News Poll - 12/10/2011 10:09:38 PM

tazzygirl

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Actually, yes, I see where you are going. And that does make sense. But these are the same people who gave Hillary the lead last time around... and look how wrong they were. I also think its telling that the polls are already concerned about who will win against Obama, rather than focusing on who will best represent the GOP.

And that is sort of how I am reading that part I posted.

The best candidate for the GOP is Gingrich... but he doesnt stand a snow balls chance in hell of beating Obama.

Romney isnt the GOP favorite, but he is still there because they believe more Independents and Democrats will vote him in that Gingrich.

I just cant fathom why anyone would assume those facts this far out.

_____________________________

Telling me to take Midol wont help your butthurt.
RIP, my demon-child 5-16-11
Duchess of Dissent 1
Dont judge me because I sin differently than you.
If you want it sugar coated, dont ask me what i think! It would violate TOS.

(in reply to Hippiekinkster)

Post #: 9

RE: Fox News Poll - 12/10/2011 10:26:16 PM

DaddySatyr

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quote:

ORIGINAL: tazzygirl

Newt Gingrich has increased his lead over Mitt Romney in the race for the Republican nomination, yet the former House speaker is weaker than Romney with the general electorate.
How does that work?

One of the biggest factors is that the two biggest kinds of polls gather information from registered voters and likely voters. Almost invariably, the ones that poll likely voters will be more accurate as a barometer for what the voting public is thinking.

Peace and comfort,

Michael

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Post #: 10

RE: Fox News Poll - 12/10/2011 10:30:39 PM

tazzygirl

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So this one being of registered voters would not be as accurate? And wouldnt likely voters also be registered voters?

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Telling me to take Midol wont help your butthurt.
RIP, my demon-child 5-16-11
Duchess of Dissent 1
Dont judge me because I sin differently than you.
If you want it sugar coated, dont ask me what i think! It would violate TOS.

(in reply to DaddySatyr)

Post #: 11

RE: Fox News Poll - 12/10/2011 10:34:50 PM

willbeurdaddy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: DaddySatyr

quote:

ORIGINAL: tazzygirl

Newt Gingrich has increased his lead over Mitt Romney in the race for the Republican nomination, yet the former House speaker is weaker than Romney with the general electorate.
How does that work?

One of the biggest factors is that the two biggest kinds of polls gather information from registered voters and likely voters. Almost invariably, the ones that poll likely voters will be more accurate as a barometer for what the voting public is thinking.

Peace and comfort,

Michael

Correct, but AFAIK the only pollster that exclusively uses likely voters is Rasmussen, which didnt produce the polls in question. Firm's explanation is the correct one.

< Message edited by willbeurdaddy -- 12/10/2011 10:36:04 PM >

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RE: Fox News Poll - 12/10/2011 10:36:20 PM

Hippiekinkster

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quote:

ORIGINAL: tazzygirl

Actually, yes, I see where you are going. And that does make sense. But these are the same people who gave Hillary the lead last time around... and look how wrong they were. I also think its telling that the polls are already concerned about who will win against Obama, rather than focusing on who will best represent the GOP.

And that is sort of how I am reading that part I posted.

The best candidate for the GOP is Gingrich... but he doesnt stand a snow balls chance in hell of beating Obama.

Romney isnt the GOP favorite, but he is still there because they believe more Independents and Democrats will vote him in that Gingrich.

I just cant fathom why anyone would assume those facts this far out.

Tazzy: I also think its telling that the polls are already concerned about who will win against Obama, rather than focusing on who will best represent the GOP.

This is an excellent observation, IMO. And it's not only who will best represent the GOP; it's also who will best represent the country to the world, and represent ALL citizens.

To illustrate my point, I'll quote for you someone for whom I have an enormous amount of respect (he's English, works on Wall St., and has given seminars on some high-end investment stuff)(the italicized line is the statement by the person he's responding to):

EricF:Arguing that Republicans are resisting the extension of the payroll tax cut because they only like the wealthy does not seem correct to me,

"It's not merely argument, it's evidenced. The Republican Party in Congress has by and large signed the Norquist pledge. The major beneficiaries of that pledge are the wealthy. The GOP candidates were asked whether they would accept a tax increase that generated revenue of 1/10th of proposed government cuts - they all declined. The Republican Party has consistently argued that lower taxes generate more revenue (google "Laffer Curve"). The Republican Party has consistently favoured lowering taxes for "wealth creators" (wrongly and malignly identified with high earners and estate inheritors) up to the present day.

When a party is so vociferously in favour of lowering taxes for the wealthy on claimed principles and economics and without any acceptance of the possibility of a rising gap between Federal revenues and expenditures, and now vehemently opposes lowering taxes for all bar the wealthy, that doesn't prove that they only like the wealthy, but it's damn good evidence for the proposition.

Indeed, the only reasonable counter, it seems to me, is to propose that it's merely a coincidence that the GOP's policies consistently favour the people they're claimed to like, and that they consistently disfavour the people they're claimed not to."

_____________________________

"We are convinced that freedom w/o Socialism is privilege and injustice, and that Socialism w/o freedom is slavery and brutality." Bakunin

“Nothing we do, however virtuous, can be accomplished alone; therefore we are saved by love.” Reinhold Ne

(in reply to tazzygirl)

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RE: Fox News Poll - 12/10/2011 10:39:00 PM

DaddySatyr

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quote:

ORIGINAL: tazzygirl

So this one being of registered voters would not be as accurate? And wouldnt likely voters also be registered voters?

Yes and yes.

First; just because someone is registered doesn't mean they're going to vote. People are so fed up with government and where the economy is and is going that when a pollster asks: "Are you registered to vote?" and gets a positive response, their next question is: "How likely are you to vote?" (They also ask how important each of the "issues" questions are to them, if they're worth their salt.) You would (or maybe you wouldn't) be surprised how many people answer something like: "I wouldn't vote if the booth was in my living room" or "One crook is just as bad as another".

Secondly, in order to be considered a likely voter, one MUST be a registered voter.

Peace and comfort,

Michael

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Screen captures (and pissing on shadows) still RULE! Ya feel me?

"For that which I love, I will do horrible things"

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Post #: 14

RE: Fox News Poll - 12/10/2011 10:41:31 PM

Aylee

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quote:

ORIGINAL: tazzygirl

Nope, not a dig at Fox thread.

Newt Gingrich has increased his lead over Mitt Romney in the race for the Republican nomination, yet the former House speaker is weaker than Romney with the general electorate.

Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/12/08/fox-news-poll-romney-bests-gingrich-in-matchups-against-obama/#ixzz1gC4GZ3WK

How does that work?

Does this really need explained?

Shit, you are polling two different population groups.

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RE: Fox News Poll - 12/10/2011 10:41:40 PM

tazzygirl

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Im sure the opposite works the same way. When the Dems are running, they compare them to each other then to the GOP as well, yes?

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Telling me to take Midol wont help your butthurt.
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Dont judge me because I sin differently than you.
If you want it sugar coated, dont ask me what i think! It would violate TOS.

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Post #: 16

RE: Fox News Poll - 12/10/2011 10:42:48 PM

tazzygirl

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quote:

Does this really need explained?

Shit, you are polling two different population groups.

Well, shit honey. When you know about everything in the universe, then you can snark away at what I dont understand.

_____________________________

Telling me to take Midol wont help your butthurt.
RIP, my demon-child 5-16-11
Duchess of Dissent 1
Dont judge me because I sin differently than you.
If you want it sugar coated, dont ask me what i think! It would violate TOS.

(in reply to Aylee)

Post #: 17

RE: Fox News Poll - 12/10/2011 10:43:03 PM

Aylee

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quote:

ORIGINAL: tazzygirl

I loved the story of the 8 year old boy who put her into her place.

Really? I have this whole thing of "I will not use my child as a pawn" thing. I find this rather disgusting.

_____________________________

Ceterum censeo Carthaginem esse delendam

I don’t always wgah’nagl fhtagn. But when I do, I ph’nglui mglw’nafh R’lyeh.

(in reply to tazzygirl)

Post #: 18

RE: Fox News Poll - 12/10/2011 10:43:53 PM

tazzygirl

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quote:

ORIGINAL: DaddySatyr

quote:

ORIGINAL: tazzygirl

So this one being of registered voters would not be as accurate? And wouldnt likely voters also be registered voters?

Yes and yes.

First; just because someone is registered doesn't mean they're going to vote. People are so fed up with government and where the economy is and is going that when a pollster asks: "Are you registered to vote?" and gets a positive response, their next question is: "How likely are you to vote?" (They also ask how important each of the "issues" questions are to them, if they're worth their salt.) You would (or maybe you wouldn't) be surprised how many people answer something like: "I wouldn't vote if the booth was in my living room" or "One crook is just as bad as another".

Secondly, in order to be considered a likely voter, one MUST be a registered voter.

Peace and comfort,

Michael

Thank you very much for that explanation.

_____________________________

Telling me to take Midol wont help your butthurt.
RIP, my demon-child 5-16-11
Duchess of Dissent 1
Dont judge me because I sin differently than you.
If you want it sugar coated, dont ask me what i think! It would violate TOS.

(in reply to DaddySatyr)

Post #: 19

RE: Fox News Poll - 12/10/2011 10:48:47 PM

tazzygirl

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Joined: 10/12/2007
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Aylee

quote:

ORIGINAL: tazzygirl

I loved the story of the 8 year old boy who put her into her place.

Really? I have this whole thing of "I will not use my child as a pawn" thing. I find this rather disgusting.

Then you must be rather disgusted at the some of the GOP candidates.

_____________________________

Telling me to take Midol wont help your butthurt.
RIP, my demon-child 5-16-11
Duchess of Dissent 1
Dont judge me because I sin differently than you.
If you want it sugar coated, dont ask me what i think! It would violate TOS.

(in reply to Aylee)

Post #: 20

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