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A 25-year recession...? - 12/15/2011 8:39:42 AM

hlen5

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http://theweek.com/article/index/222478/are-we-at-the-beginning-of-a-25-year-recession

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RE: A 25-year recession...? - 12/15/2011 9:45:13 AM

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Horrible thought

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RE: A 25-year recession...? - 12/15/2011 12:34:14 PM

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Unfortunately, I think this might be reality. The US government is unwilling to get us out of these free trade deals. Instead of single payer health care, we have health insurance tied to employment. This encourages companies to off-shore jobs so they don't have to worry about employee health insurance. As long as former middle class jobs stay overseas and new jobs are low paying service jobs, major economic improvement is unlikely.

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RE: A 25-year recession...? - 12/15/2011 12:53:47 PM

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When country's such as the U.S & Britain start to manufacture & export we'll see an end in sight of the recession. Before the end of the recession I predict that the U.S will start limited protection policy to aid it's home industrial base. Already the larger luxury auto manufacturers are pulling sub assembly build from India & China particularly in the electronics build due to utter shite quality bringing the brand name into disrepute. It's time we did the same ourselves & buy domestic product wherever possible.

In the UK our government local & national have forgot that so the cops are driving in German, Japanese cars & the local councils buying foreign built plant equipment, there is nothing that can't be bought made at home if it runs on wheels or tracks. That's where the change needs to happen first, the rest will follow. The U.S.A is the luckiest country on earth in that it can manufacture its way out of recession, it has the raw materials, the expertise & with the right leadership the sheer bloody willpower to do so.

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RE: A 25-year recession...? - 12/15/2011 1:06:59 PM

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with technology being advanced as it it, manufacturing , isnt going to come back with enough jobs for the people that need them, millions have been made redundant thru the technology, and Im far from being a technophobe. Its not going to go away. machines simply make humans pointless.
Ideas, yes, maintainance and quality control, obviously.
Hubby is a machinist, aerospace and military, and has been put out of a job so many times over the past 25 years by machinery. There has been little to fuck all retraining for any body put out of their jobs because of it. Because I was working with a retraining company, He went into computers, about twelve years ago, but so did everyone else.
He is retired now, but for years he was let go because of machinery, or companies going bankrupt because they couldnt afford the huge machines, or compete/free trade/ outsourcing, etc.
25 years wouldnt surprise me. Anyone who thinks there COULD be a quick cure, are truly not seeing the reality

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RE: A 25-year recession...? - 12/15/2011 1:24:20 PM

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It's also true that we can talk our way into recession instead of working our way out of it. Whilst I understand your point fully I also think we need to look in our driveways at what we go to work in & ask wher eit was made.

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RE: A 25-year recession...? - 12/15/2011 1:31:30 PM

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Ninebelowzero
The U.S.A is the luckiest country on earth in that it can manufacture its way out of recession, it has the raw materials, the expertise & with the right leadership the sheer bloody willpower to do so.

oh yeah.. the US has its cotton paper, inks, and that printing press going 24/7... printing money sure is one way of "manufacturing" yourself out.. except in the end it wont

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RE: A 25-year recession...? - 12/15/2011 1:32:03 PM

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there are a million aspects, but for me, technology(and I love it most of the time,) is a huge culprit and lack of foresight on what to do with kajillions of displaced workers futures.
How many UK car and lorry companies could compete with robotics making cars how many lost out to mass production.
Its one small section of a clusterfuck of "reasons". the solutions? nope I dont have them.
but still so many people dont go beyond "making a quick buck" way of living. not giving a shit as long as they arent affected

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RE: A 25-year recession...? - 12/15/2011 1:36:16 PM

DarkSteven

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lucylastic
There has been little to fuck all retraining for any body put out of their jobs because of it.

IMO, that's a myth. I agree that there's a skillset mismatch that training will alleviate, but the inescapable fact is that there are fewer jobs than there used to be. So after everyone's retrained, there's still going to be relatively high unemployment.

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RE: A 25-year recession...? - 12/15/2011 1:41:02 PM

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I do get your point but particularly automotive industries to be specific are still labour intensive, perhaps not to the scale it was in the era pre robotics (that's my area of expertise btw) but as an industry it's still worth it's weight in gold IMO. To put it in perspective the Toyota plant in Derby (UK) employed 9,000 peeps at its peak with an output of 230,000 vehicles p.a. A total of 45,000 were employed in the total chain, including bar staff etc in ancilliary industries. That's still big numbers. Multiply that by the 7 other mass manufacturers in England & you are talking big numbers.

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RE: A 25-year recession...? - 12/15/2011 1:54:56 PM

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The beginning of the end of the recession is 11/6/2012

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RE: A 25-year recession...? - 12/15/2011 1:55:13 PM

Lucylastic

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Yes there was retraining, but in my opinion, in my experience, the need was way underestimated.
Plus the area I worked in which was retraining CNE *the microsoft network engineering certif* and Aplus candidates, there were numerous issues
the candidates outnumbered the positions available 30-1. We held four courses a year in each aspect and tested at least 15 people per seat, we could have done more but we didnt have the space, the staff or the materials, let alone the computers to practise on.
Once you had applied and had been rejected for whatever case, you could not apply for another spot for six months.
The technology constantly changes, the updates to the changes, happened on almost a weekly basis, making six month old information, practically obsolete. (hell windows 98 was top of the line back then)
The applicants had work blocks but the companies would use them for free, make noises about hiring them, then chuck them at the end and hire another "trainee" the actual hiring figures came out at about 4 %( a year after qualifying) I think two years in a row
A different country, different rules, One city , one company, but we had thousands and thousands go thru in the three years I was there, and these were people skilled in other areas who had run out of unemployment funds, not people who had trouble getting employment for other reasons.

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RE: A 25-year recession...? - 12/15/2011 1:56:21 PM

Lucylastic

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quote:

ORIGINAL: willbeurdaddy

The beginning of the end of the recession is 11/6/2012

dream on willbur,
stop chasing unicorns

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RE: A 25-year recession...? - 12/15/2011 2:01:33 PM

Lucylastic

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I remember all the shite around the auto back in the day, altho I was only a babe in arms:)
I was horrified when the old man got a datsun!!!! after having a rover for donkeys years.
letting the side down he was!!!
Big numbers is all fine and well, but its not covering the workers, they just get thrown on the heap, thats my bitch:)
good liberal I am

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RE: A 25-year recession...? - 12/15/2011 2:04:56 PM

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Sure technology is partly to blame, but so is off-shoring. Think of all the computer and manufacturing jobs that are now off-shore. Greedy corporations are basically committing treason and our government is doing nothing to stop it.

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RE: A 25-year recession...? - 12/15/2011 2:06:54 PM

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But but but...........he has his bag of glitter all ready!

In my mind I think the recession was bound to happen. I've been saying since the whole thing tanked that this is going to go on for a lot longer than most people think. Things flew too high, too many people living in the moment, spending more than they make, not caring about tomorrow. Too much greed.

I still think that too many people want to believe there is an easy quick fix. There isn't one, but they do not want to believe it. They prefer to believe that it's out there but not being done. They prefer to blame whatever politician they don't like, instead of accepting that, in some ways, we are all to blame.We want what we want. We want to pay the least amount for it. Yet we still want to make the most money at our own jobs and have the best benefits.

< Message edited by LaTigresse -- 12/15/2011 2:10:05 PM >

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RE: A 25-year recession...? - 12/15/2011 2:09:04 PM

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quote:

ORIGINAL: willbeurdaddy
The beginning of the end of the recession is 11/6/2012

ok how do you figure that? what do you base that on?
and any idea when the recession after that will start?

i personally think it will keep going down (there might be a few bumps up & "happy" news along the way) or at best be stagnant for several more years (not 25 tho).. of course some pockets will do better than others too...

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RE: A 25-year recession...? - 12/15/2011 2:10:19 PM

Lucylastic

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NO government wants to do anything about it, , UK, Canada and the US are in the same boat, its been ignored for years, but now the money is gone.....the peasants are revolting and they are trying to "cover" their arses

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RE: A 25-year recession...? - 12/15/2011 2:13:13 PM

Lucylastic

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quote:

ORIGINAL: tj444

quote:

ORIGINAL: willbeurdaddy
The beginning of the end of the recession is 11/6/2012

ok how do you figure that? what do you base that on?
and any idea when the recession after that will start?

i personally think it will keep going down (there might be a few bumps up & "happy" news along the way) or at best be stagnant for several more years (not 25 tho).. of course some pockets will do better than others too...

I believe its based on the fact that its the day after the election and he is hoping for a republican victory and the world shall be saved!!!!
if Im wrong, well, it wouldnt be the first time, but Willbur is consistent

LaT... I was thinking more of a raspberry blower:) and you have some good points as aways:)

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RE: A 25-year recession...? - 12/15/2011 2:13:56 PM

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quote:

ORIGINAL: defiantbadgirl

Think of all the computer and manufacturing jobs that are now off-shore. Greedy corporations are basically committing treason and our government is doing nothing to stop it.

There is nothing treasonous about it, stop being such a drama queen.

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